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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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Typo posted:Clearing the field certainly helped Hillary, also "hugging Obama" is extremely powerful tactic in helping her beat Bernie. Those two things are not mutually exclusive You're overestimating the effect of the latter while heavily minimizing the former. I hope the Biden campaign agrees with you, to be honest, it will just ensure that he loses. "Certainly helped" lol come on. Imagine if Biden's son hadn't died and he ran in 2016, it would have been an actual primary and not just a coronation.
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Apr 19, 2019 20:45
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WampaLord posted:You're overestimating the effect of the latter while heavily minimizing the former. I hope the Biden campaign agrees with you, to be honest, it will just ensure that he loses. yeah I think we are just gonna have to agree to disagree on this one
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Apr 19, 2019 20:46
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Comparing 2016 to 2020 on a 1 to 1 basis is largely useless because one was, essentially, a two person race and the other is a crowded field. Lots of factors in the 2020 race were mitigated or exaggerated due to people choosing a candidate based on the negatives of not-Hillary or not-Bernie. So hugging Obama may work well for Biden, or it may not be effective once his campaign is contrasted with memories of Obama. Similarly a large part of Bernie's support last cycles was due to the not-Hillary factor, and not an unslakable thirst for Socialism.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:05
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HootTheOwl posted:Because in the last 100 years they haven't. At least not in America. In America Jews are basically white unless you need anything involving a calendar. Jews in America face the highest levels of religion-based hate crimes.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:09
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And speaking of 2020 being a crowded field: https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1119269398781530117 Another challenger enters the arena! quote:“I felt like, you know what, this is something I really want to do,” Bennet said of a presidential run on MTPDaily the day after his diagnosis. “I think I've got something to contribute.”
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Apr 19, 2019 21:14
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HootTheOwl posted:You're misunderstanding me. I firmly believe Biden will win if he enters the race for roughly what you described. Toxx on this you coward!
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Apr 19, 2019 21:15
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Z. Autobahn posted:The thing about Biden is that he can only fall. His base of support is clear (older Dems), but his extremely high name recognition also means his share of the vote is largely speaking fixed. He's in the Jeb/Guliani slot where the same thing that gives him early strength (name recognition) is also his vulnerability (everyone who likes him already likes him). Could he make it through the primaries? Potentially, sure. But there's a million landmines he has to navigate to do that, and his vote share is nowhere near high enough that he can just weather them ala Clinton. "Joe 2020" is the easiest campaign slogan ever. The Atlantic posted:The primary, Biden believes, will be easier than some might think: He sees a clear path down the middle of the party, especially with Bernie Sanders occupying a solid 20 percent of the progressive base, and most of the other candidates fighting for the rest. And the announcement comes at a moment when many in the party have become anxious about Sanders’s strength, with some beginning to wonder whether Biden might be the only sure counterweight to stop him from getting the nomination... https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/joe-biden-running-president/587560/ Nate Silver Twitter posted:Folks asking why I had Biden in a higher tier than Sanders; the main reason is that Biden's polling is quite a bit better. Empirically, candidates with very high name recognition who poll at ~20% (Bernie) don't do so well. ~30% (Biden) is more formidable. drawkcab si eman ym fucked around with this message at 21:35 on Apr 19, 2019 |
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Apr 19, 2019 21:16
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readingatwork posted:Toxx on this you coward!  If Biden enters, Biden wins. Now you.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:18
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Biden is trying to hoover up as much money as possible for his Day 1 announcement total from big dollar donors: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1119325151643021313
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Apr 19, 2019 21:23
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WampaLord posted:Biden is trying to hoover up as much money as possible for his Day 1 announcement total from big dollar donors: There's a reason they waited until after the end of March reporting deadline. Now he has a full quarter without having to deal with questions about total number of donors or average donation total.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:26
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WampaLord posted:And speaking of 2020 being a crowded field: Hot drat we're at 22, let's get to 25!
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Apr 19, 2019 21:26
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We have many fine people running and the worst one would be 100 times better than what we have.My final decision will not be about how much a person promises to fulfill my wishes as far as policy.My candidate will have to show me they can beat Trump.Those folks that voted for Trump are not likely to switch back with many of our candidates.I know that many traditional republicans are going Democrat but .. How many?I wouldn”t count on the Mueller report to change those who defected to Trump in 2016.And my other concern is losing Senate folks who might win . I know it would only be one but we need every single senate vote.Our new congress is trying very hard to untangle mess but they are impudent in the end , up against a conservative Senate and hand picked federalist SC and AG.Plus more conservative federal judges put there to protect Trump. If we did not have the catastrophic Trump concern I like KH , BO. PB, Stacy Abrams , Ryan from Ohio, Sanders, Warren.I think if i could wave a wand it might be Pb and Stacy Abrams.She impresses me as a doer and thinker. Like wise Pete Buttigieg.I think Pete can easily deflect negativity concerning his being gay.Trump would try but fail that morality narrative. GET RID OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND FULLY RELEASE MUELLER REPORT!!!DONT LET MUELLER REPORT CONCERNS DIE WITH EASTER RECESS!!!!!
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Apr 19, 2019 21:26
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gently caress yes https://mobile.twitter.com/ewarren/status/1119331294486368264 https://mobile.twitter.com/ewarren/status/1119331296470237185
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Apr 19, 2019 21:26
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redneck nazgul posted:GET RID OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND FULLY RELEASE MUELLER REPORT!!!DONT LET MUELLER REPORT CONCERNS DIE WITH EASTER RECESS!!!!! Which of these am I supposed to be concerned with an why?
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Apr 19, 2019 21:28
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HootTheOwl posted:
My friend, I ’d for Bernie over a month ago.
readingatwork fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Apr 19, 2019 |
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Apr 19, 2019 21:31
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https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1119337575905464320
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Apr 19, 2019 21:35
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WampaLord posted:Biden is trying to hoover up as much money as possible for his Day 1 announcement total from big dollar donors: I understand bundling does take time, but between this and not even having a website set up, I'm getting visions of a true old school, luddite campaign. Biden claims that if you leave your computer plugged in when you aren't using it, that's how they hack you. Whenever someone suggests using a website or app, he tells them about the real way things get done.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:37
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The rest of the pack has about nine months to knife Biden, which is more than enough to ensure that he won't be the nominee. The only people he appeals to are the low-info voters who go by name recognition and folks who are really jonesing for some Obama nostalgia, and that's an extremely fickle kind of support.redneck nazgul posted:We have many fine people running and the worst one would be 100 times better than what we have.My final decision will not be about how much a person promises to fulfill my wishes as far as policy.My candidate will have to show me they can beat Trump.Those folks that voted for Trump are not likely to switch back with many of our candidates.I know that many traditional republicans are going Democrat but .. How many?I wouldn”t count on the Mueller report to change those who defected to Trump in 2016.And my other concern is losing Senate folks who might win . I know it would only be one but we need every single senate vote.Our new congress is trying very hard to untangle mess but they are impudent in the end , up against a conservative Senate and hand picked federalist SC and AG.Plus more conservative federal judges put there to protect Trump. Now this is some impressive drunkposting right here.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:38
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I just don't understand how electability can be your top concern and the mayor of Indiana's 4th largest city is your top pick, alongside the lady who lost her big race.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:42
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HootTheOwl posted:
I'll take the under on this one
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Apr 19, 2019 21:43
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Cerebral Bore posted:The rest of the pack has about nine months to knife Biden, which is more than enough to ensure that he won't be the nominee. The only people he appeals to are the low-info voters who go by name recognition and folks who are really jonesing for some Obama nostalgia, and that's an extremely fickle kind of support. "Low-info voters who go by name recognition and folks who are really jonesing for some Obama nostalgia" is a really formidable and possibly winning coalition in the Democratic primary. I definitely think Biden's suppose can be brought down but it will require other candidates or media surrogates actually taking off the gloves and really going after him.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:44
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Cerebral Bore posted:The rest of the pack has about nine months to knife Biden, which is more than enough to ensure that he won't be the nominee. The only people he appeals to are the low-info voters who go by name recognition and folks who are really jonesing for some Obama nostalgia, and that's an extremely fickle kind of support. Naw, he appeals to Olds, especially Old Whites, which is actually a pretty loyal and significant base. The question is the extent to which they can be overwhelmed by Not Olds. Gyges posted:I just don't understand how electability can be your top concern and the mayor of Indiana's 4th largest city is your top pick, alongside the lady who lost her big race. "Electability" is a meaningless term people use to justify their own pre-existing biases.
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Apr 19, 2019 21:44
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I really want Warren to win. Bernie is good too. I'm significantly less excited about any other candidates.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:08
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The thread is really bipolar about Bernie vs Biden. We seem to alternate between Bernie’s gonna lose! And Biden will flame out.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:10
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:I really want Warren to win. About where I am now but I will knock doors for anyone that isn’t trump come next year.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:12
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https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1119325415657488385 Also didn't know this, but good to hear, especially her reasoning. quote:When a young white man asked Warren about marijuana. “I would legalize it,” Warren said, because “this is a matter, for me, of racial justice.”
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Apr 19, 2019 22:12
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Helsing posted:"Low-info voters who go by name recognition and folks who are really jonesing for some Obama nostalgia" is a really formidable and possibly winning coalition in the Democratic primary. It's a "coalition" that is incredibly brittle and will be nearly impossible to hold together once voters start to get informed and other sources for nostalgia start coming into prominence. Z. Autobahn posted:Naw, he appeals to Olds, especially Old Whites, which is actually a pretty loyal and significant base. The question is the extent to which they can be overwhelmed by Not Olds. It's not a winning base on its own, though.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:12
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Kraftwerk posted:The thread is really bipolar about Bernie vs Biden. We seem to alternate between Bernie’s gonna lose! And Biden will flame out. It's only natural that the thread reads as a bit bipolar when you have certain posters who have chosen their preferred candidate and other posters who are waiting to see who the strongest contender will be and kind of view it like a game to gamble on where they're just playing the roll of oddsmaker. The "Biden will flame out and Bernie will win" people are at least consistent in their theory. e: vvv speaking of oddsmakers
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Apr 19, 2019 22:14
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HarryEntenTwitter posted:I'm betting against Biden to win the nomination, but here's why you can't discount his lead. One big one: I'm sick of this idea it's all name id. Sanders & Warren have ~name id & are way back. Biden just had awful press. He stayed atop with ease. I've got Biden 40/ Field 60
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Apr 19, 2019 22:14
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theblackw0lf posted:This is really good This quote basically reflects what I would consider the ideal role for her in the race (and what seems to be happening so far): quote:But in broad strokes, Sanders’s and Warren’s campaigns are more compatible than they are in competition—while Sanders spends much of his energy blowing up the idea that government can’t or shouldn’t directly provide people the benefits that they need, Warren is ready to sink the knife into the hearts of the institutions and systems that made government that way in the first place. Their campaigns may very well be, at least in a (hypothetical) healthy primary, in a kind of conversation with one another, pushing each forward, challenging blindspots, and forcing the other to speak to more issues. The only issue I have is that it leaves out probably the #1 biggest issue with Warren relative to Sanders, which is her weak support for MfA (which kind of implies that the reason Warren focuses on attacking harmful institutions is because she simply isn't ideologically in favor of the sort of sweeping social democratic policy Sanders supports). I feel like most other arguments for choosing Sanders over Warren are either subjective (like how much it matters she used to be Republican 20+ years ago) or questionable (like the importance of her saying she wants to fix capitalism, when Sanders also isn't really challenging capitalism itself). But the hesitation towards openly supporting MfA, which is probably the biggest issue aside from climate change in the coming election, likely speaks (as I mentioned in an earlier post) to a hesitation on Warren's part to support programs of that magnitude (either in terms of overall cost or in terms of the impact to the private health insurance industry, though my guess is more the former since Warren doesn't some shy about doing things unpopular with corporations). I wish people would focus more on this, because most criticism in the media of Warren is nonsense about electability (that honestly has a kind of sexist edge to it). My ideal outcome would be for Warren to end up in Sanders' cabinet. She has a bunch of helpful ideas that I would like to see implemented, and a Sanders administration would almost certainly be willing to enable her to push for those things. Ytlaya fucked around with this message at 22:17 on Apr 19, 2019 |
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Apr 19, 2019 22:15
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WampaLord posted:It's only natural that the thread reads as a bit bipolar when you have certain posters who have chosen their preferred candidate and other posters who are waiting to see who the strongest contender will be and kind of view it like a game to gamble on where they're just playing the roll of oddsmaker. I just want Bernie to win and id donate 100 bucks per month to do so but unfortunately I’m not an American citizen.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:18
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Kraftwerk posted:The thread is really bipolar about Bernie vs Biden. We seem to alternate between Bernie’s gonna lose! And Biden will flame out. tbh that's because there's still a pretty high degree of uncertainty on the field and anyone making any prediction with certainty is full of it
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Apr 19, 2019 22:23
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Edit: sorry I think I hit a forums bug
Billzasilver fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Apr 19, 2019 |
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Apr 19, 2019 22:23
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Billzasilver posted:Something objectively horrible to every human sense: I’m Lincoln pondering the scene before him.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:28
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The Fast Food Feast looks loving bomb tho.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:34
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:"Joe 2020" is the easiest campaign slogan ever.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:37
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readingatwork posted:I’m Lincoln pondering the scene before him.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:37
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drawkcab si eman ym posted:"Joe 2020" is the easiest campaign slogan ever. Nate means nothing and what field in the middle? The middle is a tightly packed lane. He is hilariously out of touch.
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Apr 19, 2019 22:44
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Yeah, in what universe is Biden in the middle? He's running for the rightmost quadrant of the Dem electorate for sure. Who's running to the right of Biden?
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Apr 19, 2019 22:53
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Z. Autobahn posted:Yeah, in what universe is Biden in the middle? He's running for the rightmost quadrant of the Dem electorate for sure. Who's running to the right of Biden? Klobuchar, maybe?
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Apr 19, 2019 22:55
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