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Who do you want to be the 2020 Democratic Nominee? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe "the liberal who fights busing" Biden |
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27 | 1.40% |
| Bernie "please don't die" Sanders |
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1017 | 52.69% |
| Cory "charter schools" Booker |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Kirsten "wall street" Gillibrand |
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24 | 1.24% |
| Kamala "truancy queen" Harris |
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59 | 3.06% |
| Julian "who?" Castro |
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7 | 0.36% |
| Tulsi "gay panic" Gabbard |
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25 | 1.30% |
| Michael "crimes crimes crimes" Avenatti |
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22 | 1.14% |
| Sherrod "discount bernie" Brown |
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21 | 1.09% |
| Amy "horrible boss" Klobuchar |
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12 | 0.62% |
| Tammy "stands for america" Duckworth |
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48 | 2.49% |
| Beto "whataburger" O'Rourke |
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32 | 1.66% |
| Elizabeth "instagram beer" Warren |
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284 | 14.72% |
| Tom "impeach please" Steyer |
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4 | 0.21% |
| Michael "soda is the devil" Bloomberg |
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9 | 0.47% |
| Joseph Stalin |
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287 | 14.87% |
| Howard "coffee republican" Schultz |
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10 | 0.52% |
Jay "nobody cares about climate change  " Inslee |
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13 | 0.67% |
| Pete "gently caress the homeless" Butt Man |
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17 | 0.88% |
| Total: | 1930 votes | ||
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Nail Rat posted:I can't believe Biden is the frontrunner. That would undo all of the progress that's happened over the past two years. And he'd certainly step back from declaring climate change an emergency, and kick that can down the road another 4-8 years. yeah republicans take back the house and keep the majority in the senate if biden ends up as the nominee (even if he wins the presidency).
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Apr 30, 2019 13:59
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Warren is a technocrat through and through; when the only relevant issue to a voter is "can you make my health care better and cheaper?" she can't silence the part of her brain that knows a fast transition to a single-payer public health plan would crater the health care industry for long enough to say something inspiring. Bernie is far better at centering the voter in a way that allows "who cares, here are the principles of a government that isn't garbage, we'll figure out the details of implementation later" to actually fly, and Harris et al. are better at bullshitting out both sides of their mouth. Warren can't make a promise without a calculation, so she's stuck. I dunno, I think she's a smart enough woman to figure out she can pass a M4A bill that has a transition period. Not even Bernie's bill (which she cosponsored) instantly replaces the industry.
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Apr 30, 2019 14:06
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Here's a good account to follow if you need the digital equivalent of a paper bag to breathe into: https://twitter.com/LedPast/status/1123180269219893248 quote:The point being that we are shortly going to enter a period in which poll after poll after poll will try to give us a sense of how the Democratic primary field is shaping up, and, invariably, some of those polls will be used to declare that one candidate or another has a near-insurmountable lead. In 2015, we sought to combat that by gently reminding people of who had led in prior presidential primary contests on a day-by-day basis. And in 2019, we’re doing the same thing.
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Apr 30, 2019 14:09
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Krugman's on a weird tirade. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1123212776464318464 https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1123213593976164354 I'm pretty sure Bernie knows what kind of opposition he'll face, but you do you, Krugman. E: A fifth tweet, this time praising Warren in addition to calling Bernie naive: https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1123214066984603648
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Apr 30, 2019 14:14
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Who is Paul Krugman and what convinced him Sanders wants to take away private insurance?
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Apr 30, 2019 14:18
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King of Solomon posted:Krugman's on a weird tirade. This is the dumbest thing, purely out of bad faith (like in 2016). You see, saying that you're going to work across the aisle or that you are going to turn lots of GOP voters to your side is pure fantasy. Dazzling them with technically proficient proposals, on the other hand, will totally get the job done! Yes, it is unlikely that Biden will find the reasonable republican to govern with. And yes, it is unlikely that Bernie will get enough public pressure to enact his agenda (though that seems the far more likely of the unlikely options). But then, what is the alternative?
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Apr 30, 2019 14:23
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Demiurge4 posted:Who is Paul Krugman and what convinced him Sanders wants to take away private insurance? Nobel prize winning left-wing liberal economist. Like Stiglitz but with his own NYT editorial column and active on twitter. His biggest political achievement is probably that he successfully predicted the exact decimal-place effect that Obama's stimulus would have in response to the 2008 crisis (briefly, that it would be sufficient to stop the plunge but not sufficient to achieve positive growth in a timely fashion). He's a lot like Nate Silver in that within his field he routinely makes the rest of the pundit class look like stupendous idiots but outside of his precise field he can be as dumb as anyone else. Was a Hillary supporter in 2016. And in 2008. Generally tends to "realistic" party line democrat takes (again, outside his field).
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Apr 30, 2019 14:30
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1123215103350976514quote:Biden scores 50% with nonwhite voters in CNN's poll. That compares with the 29% he gets with white voters. This poll matches with prior polls that suggest minorities are a large part of Biden's base.
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Apr 30, 2019 14:55
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Nail Rat posted:I can't believe Biden is the frontrunner. That would undo all of the progress that's happened over the past two years. And he'd certainly step back from declaring climate change an emergency, and kick that can down the road another 4-8 years. It's still under our collective power to reject it, and we have what, nine months to do it? This is simple: turnout. Old fucks turn out. Young people, generally, do not, but have in 2008 for Obama and of course last fall. Want to defeat Joe? Turn out the youth vote and work tirelessly for that goal. They have the votes if they cast them, which is why AOC is where she is. The reason why our country has traditionally been led by olds is because it has traditionally been run by old voters more than almost any other group. Gotta turn out the youth in record numbers, there's no other way. See, does this go on to mention the splits by age group? Because that's what I'm saying: olds like Biden, white and non-white. Youth do not. I would imagine the demo splits bear this out. EDIT It does: quote:Age: Biden's up 30% to 19% over Sanders among Democrats under the age of 50. Among those age 50 and older, Biden holds an astounding 48% to 11% over Sanders. That is, his lead more than triples among older voters. VH4Ever fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Apr 30, 2019 |
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Apr 30, 2019 15:01
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Hey man, just wondering, you ever gonna offer a mea culpa for this? DaveWoo posted:The rebuttal is for Sanders to actually release his tax returns, and it's starting to get a little weird that he hasn't done so yet. I clicked the little ? under your name and didn't see one, weird, huh? VH4Ever posted:It's still under our collective power to reject it, and we have what, nine months to do it? This is simple: turnout. Old fucks turn out. Young people, generally, do not, but have in 2008 for Obama and of course last fall. Want to defeat Joe? Turn out the youth vote and work tirelessly for that goal. They have the votes if they cast them, which is why AOC is where she is. The reason why our country has traditionally been led by olds is because it has traditionally been run by old voters more than almost any other group. Gotta turn out the youth in record numbers, there's no other way.  we gotta put some sweat equity into this thing, in the words of Nina Turner.
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Apr 30, 2019 15:02
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These people are old enough to remember Biden on busing and Anita Hill. They’re probably old enough to remember Malcom X talking about the house negro and the field negro. Why do the mice continue to vote for the cats.
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Apr 30, 2019 15:14
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Krugman's tweets don't seem off to me.
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Apr 30, 2019 15:17
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Raenir Salazar posted:Krugman's tweets don't seem off to me. Sanders could probably reach a lot of those people if the republican party didn't have a stranglehold on them. But they do, so..
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Apr 30, 2019 15:18
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Jesus gently caress they're gonna vote for the oldest whitest moron aren't they well, hopefully Biden manages to trip over his dick ASAP
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Apr 30, 2019 15:19
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Jesus gently caress they're gonna vote for the oldest whitest moron aren't they I hope so too. But it looks like the Dems have learned nothing from 2016.
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Apr 30, 2019 15:26
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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1123207946945613825?s=19 The absolute worst possible takeaway from 2016. If Obama had lost either of his elections these idiots would be saying the same thing for people of color  .
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Apr 30, 2019 15:27
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bowser posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1123207946945613825?s=19 They're just conservatives. The oldest whitest man is the most conservative so they want him, even as they say "no more old white men" about the guy who wants to help the poor who don't deserve it and should work harder. If Harris were to the right of Biden they would be going "slay kweeeeeen! White men are canceled! Cops rule and you're racesexist if you don't tongue every cop's taint!" VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Apr 30, 2019 |
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Apr 30, 2019 15:32
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Raenir Salazar posted:Krugman's tweets don't seem off to me. So you also think Sanders is naive?
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Apr 30, 2019 15:38
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bowser posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1123207946945613825?s=19 https://twitter.com/petridishes/status/1121508999646593026
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Apr 30, 2019 15:43
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King of Solomon posted:So you also think Sanders is naive? I think naive is a poor word choice by Krugman. Overconfident is better -- Biden that bipartisanship can exist, Sanders that he can sway any republicans that value social conservatism or democrats that aren't as left as him on healthcare. Krugman has written plenty of positive articles about the economics of single payer so it's not that he doesn't get it, but just has less faith in the electorate. Doesn't mean that Biden and Sanders should be viewed equally in terms of which goal (bipartisanship vs. full equitable single payer) is more desirable regardless of their ability to achieve it. Krugman posted:"Single payer has always been economically feasible!" he wrote. "Lots of countries do it; we do it for everyone 65 and older. It’s really quite weird that we talk as if single-payer would be a huge, radical departure from American practice when so many people are on Medicare and Medicaid." KingNastidon fucked around with this message at 15:53 on Apr 30, 2019 |
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Apr 30, 2019 15:49
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KingNastidon posted:I think naive is a poor word choice by Krugman. Overconfident is better -- Biden that bipartisanship can exist, Sanders that he can sway any republicans that value social conservatism or democrats that aren't as left as him on healthcare. Do you think that Fox New audience was full of leftist democrats?
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Apr 30, 2019 15:51
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KingNastidon posted:I think naive is a poor word choice by Krugman. Overconfident is better -- Biden that bipartisanship can exist, Sanders that he can sway any republicans that value social conservatism or democrats that aren't as left as him on healthcare. As opposed to what? The belief that a really detailed policy brief will get people to your side?
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Apr 30, 2019 15:53
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Nail Rat posted:I can't believe Biden is the frontrunner. That would undo all of the progress that's happened over the past two years. And he'd certainly step back from declaring climate change an emergency, and kick that can down the road another 4-8 years. woke younger people can probably figure him out for exactly what he is, it's just that that's not necessarily even a plurality of likely voters. there's also the obstacle where if you try to expose his horrible regressive record by contrasting it to bernie's uou'll have to convince people you're not engaging in a circular firing squad or whatever i try to lead with that quote where he's saying how easy young people have it, the one that makes him sound like a total sociopath and a panderer to boot, but people can still rationalize it away. deference to authority is still a thing.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:03
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https://twitter.com/JoshthePagan/status/1123215146229346311
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Apr 30, 2019 16:03
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KingNastidon posted:I think naive is a poor word choice by Krugman. Overconfident is better -- Biden that bipartisanship can exist, Sanders that he can sway any republicans that value social conservatism or democrats that aren't as left as him on healthcare. Even if he never actually used the word, the entire thrust of the thread is that Bernie and Biden are naive, living in a fantasy world.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:06
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https://twitter.com/JudyWoodruff/status/1123214526764212224 folks, I think Cory Booker might not be all that great.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:07
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Right and that's the other side of the age thing: these sorts of polls either don't reach people under 35, even when they do they'll straight up lie about the results. Helpful to keep this in mind going forward before the doomsaying becomes too thick. Remember: the likes of CNN and etc are actively trying to act like Bernie has no support. Again. So every story on "electability," every poll showing Biden off to a giant lead within days, treat it all with the extreme skepticism it deserves. Consider the source. And keep your bullshit detector on at all times.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:08
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sheep-dodger posted:https://twitter.com/JudyWoodruff/status/1123214526764212224
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Apr 30, 2019 16:09
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joepinetree posted:As opposed to what? The belief that a really detailed policy brief will get people to your side? The Buttigieg take of "anything we say on policy doesn't matter - we have to focus on fixing the institutions", I guess. This is normal and the responsible thing to do  . Most Dem primary voters are over 50!
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Apr 30, 2019 16:15
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Biden has been building relationships with unions and black communities for years, where Bernie was essentially a local Vermont phenomenon until 2016. Purity tests only matter for a specific type of online Dems. bowser posted:https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1123207946945613825?s=19 This is basically what Bernie was imputing about Gillum and Abrams's losses.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:16
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Stop unskewing polls, Biden has been consistently in front for a while now in numerous polls, including after brushing off harassment allegations. He is the front-runner right now. Many democrats are conservatives who just want a reminder of the thing that will let them go back to not caring about politics. I think Bernie has to go negative on his rear end. Scorched earth, who cares. Yesterday he did a good job pointing out the differences between the two of them, I just worry it's not going to matter unless the differences become more stark in voters minds.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:18
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InnercityGriot posted:Stop unskewing polls, Biden has been consistently in front for a while now in numerous polls, including after brushing off harassment allegations. He is the front-runner right now. Many democrats are conservatives who just want a reminder of the thing that will let them go back to not caring about politics. I think Bernie has to go negative on his rear end. Scorched earth, who cares. Yesterday he did a good job pointing out the differences between the two of them, I just worry it's not going to matter unless the differences become more stark in voters minds. It’s not unskewing a poll to point out it polled so few people under 45 that they couldn’t do cross-tab breakdowns for those age demographics. It’s like that 2016 tracking poll that would occasionally show a massive upswing in youth black support for Trump because they had like 3 younger black respondents and one was maga.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:21
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Pinterest Mom posted:This is normal and the responsible thing to do It's still worth pointing out. InnercityGriot posted:Stop unskewing polls I'm not. This isn't unskewing, I fully acknowledge that Biden has the polling lead, Sanders just has numerous other factors going for him (donations/volunteers/campaign infrastructure) and the rest of the clown car is gonna have to knife Joe if they want any shot at winning. Warren hates him, I fully expect her to elbow drop him from the top rope at one of these debates.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:22
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WampaLord posted:Warren hates him, I fully expect her to elbow drop him from the top rope at one of these debates. Looking forward to that very much. 
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Apr 30, 2019 16:25
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Per the poll this means that out of the ~450 Dems they sampled, less than 125 were under the age of 50. I suppose that's an accurate sample if you believe a full 75% of primary voters will be over the age of 50, though I think that's pretty unlikely. Some other takeaways from the poll: The MoE for questions asked of Dems/Dem leaning Independents is about 6%. 51% of people say they know little to nothing of Biden's Senate career. When asked who they want to know more about, Harris, Warren, and Biden are the top three picks (each at around 20% of voters asking to know more about them). The top two issues for Dem voters are climate change (96% consider this important) and M4A (91% consider this important). They didn't ask about Bernie's favorability for some reason? But Biden's unfavorable rating has jumped by 10 to 39% since the last poll in December, which is pretty significant for a candidate everyone already knew about. 92% consider the ability to beat Donald Trump to be important, and 77% consider "Is willing to work with Republicans to get things done" to be important (decorum poisoning is a fatal affliction). Edit: Checking around, in 2018 about 30% of Dem primary voters were under the age of 40. So I think a poll that suggests 25% or less of voters in the primary will be under the age of 50 to be a bit off. Wicked Them Beats fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Apr 30, 2019 |
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Apr 30, 2019 16:26
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Trabisnikof posted:It’s not unskewing a poll to point out it polled so few people under 45 that they couldn’t do cross-tab breakdowns for those age demographics. I agree. Unskewing is when you go "oh, they polled 3% too many men, and 5% too few hispanics, lets adjust the numbers". Flat-out effectively not reaching anyone under 45 at all is a problem. They probably vote in primaries a lot less often, but you still have to reach them because their voting intention is likely very different. That said, I believe Biden is the clear front-runner. I've been saying that for over a year now, and goons are just now finally accepting it.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:27
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Trabisnikof posted:It’s not unskewing a poll to point out it polled so few people under 45 that they couldn’t do cross-tab breakdowns for those age demographics. That poll was the most accurate one lmao
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Apr 30, 2019 16:27
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Trabisnikof posted:Do you think that Fox New audience was full of leftist democrats? I think push comes to shove they'll pull the lever for a republican, be it Trump or a representative that will oppose single payer. Republicans nearly passed ACA repeal, continue to try to cut Medicaid, end pre-existing conditions etc. Swaying people to Sanders style single payer relies on the belief that they'll be fine paying for other people's healthcare and 100% equity in services as long their personal situation improves enough. This seems like a big ask for people that are largely motivated by making other people's lives worse and we have 18+ months of right wing spin left. joepinetree posted:As opposed to what? The belief that a really detailed policy brief will get people to your side? You aren't going to lose anyone by providing more information now that you wouldn't eventually lose by providing the same information later. You may gain people that are somewhat comfortable with the premise of 100% equitable single payer with no private insurance, but have some level of uncertainty about what it'd mean for them. Put yourself in the shoes of someone that isn't completely sold on single payer -- you get everything "for free," there are seemingly no downsides, yet no one has done it yet. What's the catch? Even if there really isn't one and the obvious answer is there are powerful forces that benefit from status quo they'll still be susceptible to messaging about possible limitations/constraints. Opponents of Sanders style single payer will exploit those feelings of uncertainty and skepticism no matter what and less information only helps. King of Solomon posted:Even if he never actually used the word, the entire thrust of the thread is that Bernie and Biden are naive, living in a fantasy world. Even if he's right and used naive purposefully then it's up to voters to decide which fantasy is more desirable than the others. Given candidates other than Sanders have non-zero voter share it's clear a good number of voters are either 1) uninformed about the significant differences in policy visions between a Sanders and a Biden or 2) informed but seek bipartisanship (centrism, moderation) rather than radical change. KingNastidon fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Apr 30, 2019 |
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Apr 30, 2019 16:29
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Per the poll this means that out of the ~450 Dems they sampled, less than 125 were under the age of 50. I suppose that's an accurate sample if you believe a full 75% of primary voters will be over the age of 50, though I think that's pretty unlikely. 70% of their sample was over 45. In the 2016 primary electorate, ~61% were over 45. People have aged since then (despite the demographic changes in the parties, the Dem party is still aging on average). It's a bit of an oversample, but not dramatic.
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Apr 30, 2019 16:30
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Rigel posted:That said, I believe Biden is the clear front-runner. I've been saying that for over a year now, and goons are just now finally accepting it. Well, he wasn't actually running until last week, it's hard to consider someone who's not in the race the front runner. Now that he's declared, yes of course we're okay with officially calling him that, it's not "accepting it" like it's the fifth stage of grieving lol
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Apr 30, 2019 16:31
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