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The question with Ron is if he's coming off as badly to his tribemates as he is to the viewers. Wentworth rolling his eyes at him in Tribal would suggest they do, but Wentworth was obviously being over the top so its tough to know if her feelings reflect the rest of the jury. But Ron seemed to at least agree that he needed Wardog and Devens as shields/goats. But maybe that was more about arrogance and him seeing himself as a target rather than the goat thing. I don't personally feel like Ron's been playing the sides as well as he and you seem to think he has. He was left out of that original cross tribe alliance and left out in the cold before Wardog shook stuff up with the second cross tribe alliance. And then he seemed kind of on the outside of this week's vote. Maybe his over the top fake sincerity plays well with people like Julie and is working though. Its tough to gauge. He's certainly gamed more than his other remaining Kama tribemates. And if you're an edit reader, as much as I dislike that stuff it seems like you'd have to think if he was getting a "winner's edit" they'd be trying to make him a little more likable or rootable.
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Apr 28, 2019 00:45
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STAC Goat posted:The question with Ron is if he's coming off as badly to his tribemates as he is to the viewers. Wentworth rolling his eyes at him in Tribal would suggest they do, but Wentworth was obviously being over the top so its tough to know if her feelings reflect the rest of the jury. But Ron seemed to at least agree that he needed Wardog and Devens as shields/goats. But maybe that was more about arrogance and him seeing himself as a target rather than the goat thing. I'm only an edit reader so much as who gets tv time. You're right about the social aspect, but in the end I think Ron can spin the narrative of being in control more than not, and in general I expect the jury to vote for gameplay over social considering how many of them are huge fans of the show. Lauren could win with an underdog story. If she makes a huge idol play that gives her a massive boost to the jury as well. Aurora could win with a similar story that Allison had last season except she's actually a threat instead of a perceived one. Name comes up a lot, keeps avoiding the vote, and another challenge win or two would be a big feather in her cap. Julie, Gavin, and Victoria are followers at this point, I think. I don't think any of them win without sitting next to each other. Even with how much people seem to like Julie. EoE returnee feels like only Wardog, David, or Wentworth have a shot. Or someone who hasn't been voted out yet.
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Apr 28, 2019 01:03
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they also went out of their way to show ron rubbing people the wrong way last episode. the scene seemed a little out of place at the time. i almost forgot about lauren. i suppose i could see her winning as well. she has friends on the jury and no one really seems to dislike her.
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Apr 28, 2019 01:08
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Yeah, typing all that out, it made me think that even though I have Ron as the second best chance to win right now, by the time they actually get to f3, the circumstances that got them all there leaves a lot of players who probably did something to pass him even if he's still there. And I might actually put Aurora ahead of him at the moment.
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Apr 28, 2019 01:12
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Lauren's advantages are that she seems to have the same perceived threat status Aurora has but without the seeming dislike so many of the players have for Aurora, theoretically has a champion on the Jury in Wentworth and some other Lesu friends/allies who might be sympathetic to her game, and theoretically has a story about struggling early, surviving the Lesu shitshow, being betrayed by Wardog and losing her closest person, and then fighting back. If she can make the end without just being carried there she would seem to have a case on paper with the Lesu votes and all that stuff. But that's why I kind of see the most natural course for this tribe to be for Ron, Julie, Victoria, and Gavin to realize they all need each other and target Devens, Lauren, and Aurora. And that scenario might favor Ron if he can sell people on him being the key decision maker at different points of the game.
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Apr 28, 2019 01:17
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STAC Goat posted:Wentworth rolling his eyes at him in Tribal would suggest they do Reaction shots are just always so fake I don't bother reading into them. Easily cut in wherever they need them.
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Apr 28, 2019 09:03
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Zesty posted:Reaction shots are just always so fake I don't bother reading into them. Easily cut in wherever they need them. To me, that's exactly why you do read into them. The editors know how the season goes. They generally want us to feel a certain way about stuff, so they subtly (and not-so-subtly) try to shape our feelings towards them over the course of the season. Emotional manipulation, strategic prowess inflation, and blunder protection are the traditional ways the editors have tried to make us feel good about winners. Though I think they're better about it now than they used to be, it's still in their wheelhouse.
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Apr 28, 2019 09:54
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Has anyone ever tracked how much screentime a winning player gets in relation to others in their seasons. Like, could the winner of a season be predicted through mere screen time, or time they are off-screen but the topic of conversation by a robot who can't understand the context of events?
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Apr 28, 2019 20:59
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Khanstant posted:Has anyone ever tracked how much screentime a winning player gets in relation to others in their seasons. Like, could the winner of a season be predicted through mere screen time, or time they are off-screen but the topic of conversation by a robot who can't understand the context of events? Oh boy, have I got the website for you
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Apr 28, 2019 21:05
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There's communities online dedicated to tracking the number of minutes of TV time people get and the number of confessionals and reading what they can into it to prove who has the "winner's edit" and stuff. Its obviously a deeply inexact "science" since there's an argument for it because winners are often players who are active all game and have a lot to say, and the editors obviously do want to construct a satisfying narrative with some foreshadowing and a satisfying winner who is a full character. But there's also consistently been surprises, main stars of the show taken out earlier than expected, and winners who emerge extremely late in the game because ultimately the show has to stay somewhat truthful to the flow of the game.
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Apr 28, 2019 21:06
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STAC Goat posted:There's communities online dedicated to tracking the number of minutes of TV time people get and the number of confessionals and reading what they can into it to prove who has the "winner's edit" and stuff. Why do they do this
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Apr 28, 2019 21:10
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To some extent I think its just people wanting to be the smartest and be able to predict the winner and gloat that they called it, the same as anyone who gloats about calling a twist or a mystery in a show or a sports fan who prides himself on being the smuggest rightest person about the sport. But I also think Survivor/Big Brother just draws conspiratorial and obsessed fans given their natures and the fact that so much of the shows ARE obviously edited to tell a narrative and pushed by production in certain directions. So it opens up the door to all kinds of stuff. BB fans are WAAAAAAY worse and there's a percentage of them who just believe that everything that didn't go as they expected/wanted is "rigged."
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Apr 28, 2019 21:19
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Autism probably. From what I can tell, they kind of make it into a game. They have little charts they make for each episode, and then they list their top contenders for who they think is winning based on how visible they are and what kind of portrayal they are getting. Then when the season ends, whoever read the edit the best gets... well, the satisfaction of being right I guess. It's kind of weird. Sometimes they get it dead on (the community as a whole was locked into Michele from about episode 4 of Kaoh Rong), but sometimes they barely miss (most had David winning MvGX) and a good number of them get stuck in their own bullshit (like that one guy who was absolutely convinced Ken was winning MvGX). They're basically trying to quantify storytelling and editorial manipulation. I think the editing is a lot less formulaic than it used to be, especially now that the editors have confirmed that they know about this poo poo and are purposely undermining it, but those nerds are still making their little charts, God bless em.
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Apr 28, 2019 21:23
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Oh good lord, well I guess this is exactly what I was asking about. I cannot be bothered to learn all these acronyms and charts but it's neat someone does it. Even if the only conclusion is that they get to be right sometimes but not functional as a reliable predictor.
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Apr 28, 2019 22:43
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It’s basically what we do in here. Judging by screentime and storylines presented to us, do you think Julia is winning this game? Hell, is Gavin winning this game?
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Apr 28, 2019 22:47
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They have kind of tricked us with winners who don’t get the hero edit before, but it’s not common. Last was maybe Sophie?
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Apr 28, 2019 22:48
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Zesty posted:It’s basically what we do in here. There's a difference between reacting to the show to say who you think seems like they can win vs trying to analyze the show to predict who will win. Like I can say "Lauren doesn't seem like she's in a great place but she's got enough of a story and social game that maybe she can pull out a win" that's just me reacting to the show. If I say "Lauren is going to win the game because she's had the most consistent tv presence across the season despite not doing much so its all been to try ad construct her a winner's edit" thats something else entirely. And like literally keeping charts and stuff to try and come up with some kind of scientific metric to predict the winner is another thing all together.
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Apr 28, 2019 22:55
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Straight math edgic is kind of boring but does a very good job of weeding out 2/3 of the cast for simply not getting enough confessionals to win no matter the context. "Alison is a huge threat!" meant nothing to the edgic people. The most consistent thing edgic does after that is create paranoia before the finale that some pleasant but dull player could pull off the win based on confessional counts and empty positivity. I don't believe a lot of casual viewers thought Kara had a shot. Regular edit reading is fun for arguing who is The Narrator and if someone's journey has veered too far into the dreaded personal growth edit. RIP David and his DVD collection.
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Apr 30, 2019 17:16
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I do edit/game reading a little bit but only at the obvious level that you can't really watch the show without doing, unless you just don't think about it at all. Victoria and Gavin have been so MIA it's hard to imagine them winning Aurora has been a combination of MIA and an outsider, so that's part an edit read and part a game read why I think she's unlikely to win Devens has the strongest edit but nobody wants him there so he'd have to do something stupid like win a bunch of challenges and/or the extinction event, probably won't Lauren has maybe one ally left and hasn't been that spectacular, so she's got an idol but still seems like a longshot Ron is smug but has a chance, he's got screentime all season, has played a decent game, and is in a decent spot Julie has been part boring and part a mess, I don't think I'd really like a Julie win, but honestly... she might be my pick right now.
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Apr 30, 2019 20:03
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UltimoDragonQuest posted:Straight math edgic is kind of boring but does a very good job of weeding out 2/3 of the cast for simply not getting enough confessionals to win no matter the context. "Alison is a huge threat!" meant nothing to the edgic people. The most consistent thing edgic does after that is create paranoia before the finale that some pleasant but dull player could pull off the win based on confessional counts and empty positivity. I don't believe a lot of casual viewers thought Kara had a shot. Aubry Confessional: "Here is my strategy and my relationships with other people." Tai Confessional: "Here is my strategy and my relationship with other people." Michelle Confessional: "Those were really good cheeseburgers." To be clear, I don't blame the players for anything. That entire season was a fuckup of production.
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Apr 30, 2019 21:24
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Sometimes the gamebots get tiresome and you just want to talk about cheeseburgers.
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May 1, 2019 04:21
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Oh boy, here we go.
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May 2, 2019 01:00
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Nope, right into it!
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May 2, 2019 01:01
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hope that they have edge of extinction's family out there to starve and be bored with them
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May 2, 2019 01:04
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This is so weird. I am getting the episode without any speech. The background audio plays, but there is no other sound.
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May 2, 2019 01:05
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for a sec I thought Lauren's dad was Dominick from a couple seasons ago
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May 2, 2019 01:05
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I always feel awkward at these family episodes because I don't think I would ever have that kind of reaction to seeing my family after like 30 days without seeing them. Maybe if I hadn't seen or communicated with them for like a year or something, but at 30 days I feel like I'd just be like 'Hey.  ' regardless of the fact that I've been mostly starving and paranoid while playing some social game on a island with no real shelter.
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May 2, 2019 01:08
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TMMadman posted:I always feel awkward at these family episodes because I don't think I would ever have that kind of reaction to seeing my family after like 30 days without seeing them. 
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May 2, 2019 01:08
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lmao I'd give my loved one either a handshake or a fake hug and then stand awkwardly away from them and Jeff would be like 'What, you don't miss or love your family?' and then I'd have to be like, "well I guess, but it's only been like 30 days and I've gone months without seeing them and often weeks without even texting them.
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May 2, 2019 01:12
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I knew as soon as they showed the confessional about how Ron wanted everyone to think he’s with them that he was going to win this challenge.
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May 2, 2019 01:15
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Gavin is a dead man walking this episode
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May 2, 2019 01:20
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I'm a big fan of Rick Devins regardless of whether he wins or loses. He's got some good personality going on.
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May 2, 2019 01:25
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TMMadman posted:I'm a big fan of Rick Devins regardless of whether he wins or loses. 
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May 2, 2019 01:25
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TMMadman posted:I'm a big fan of Rick Devins regardless of whether he wins or loses. 
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May 2, 2019 01:27
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oh god this looks miserable
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May 2, 2019 01:29
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drat that was a great idol find
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May 2, 2019 01:31
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I absolutely hope this is a true idol blindside. And as I type that Devins talks to Ron
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May 2, 2019 01:32
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Man, I miss the ELAPSED TIME: tag.
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May 2, 2019 01:33
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lmbo ron the carry
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May 2, 2019 01:33
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feels like we skipped a couple phases since there were extra steps that we didn't see anyone on
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May 2, 2019 01:37
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