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is guiado white or mestizo? or is he white by venezuelan standards?
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May 1, 2019 09:33
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Majorian posted:Thinking that this is the only reason why people didn’t turn out for Guaido is naive in the extreme. Yeah, especially since in recent years there have been successful revolutions/revolts facing similar issues (if anything some of the anti-government forces in this case were at least armed from get-go).
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May 1, 2019 09:47
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cargo cult posted:is guiado white or mestizo? or is he white by venezuelan standards? Jesus christ, the "anti-imperialists" in this thread seem to be super obsessed with racial purity.
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May 1, 2019 10:27
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It's clear that Guaido isn't inspiring people on a large enough scale and the reasons for that aren't just that the other side have more guns. Guaido being basically installed as a puppet leader by foreign nations - Colombia, Brazil, USA - is a pretty big handicap to overcome when trying to inspire nationalist fervour. The EU announcing that ridiculous ultimatum a few months back demanding that Maduro call an election probably didn't help either.
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May 1, 2019 10:54
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cargo cult posted:is guiado white or mestizo? or is he white by venezuelan standards? Go ask Google dude
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May 1, 2019 11:18
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Ardennes posted:Also, what was the big issue with the CEPR report? Short version: It operates by asserting all negative outcomes since general sanctions were caused directly by the general sanctions. It acknowledges this is a farcical assumption, then...does it anyways, repeatedly, at length, ignoring or reversing other causal assumptions to generate the most outrageous pull quotes possible. I go into it a big more in some earlier posts with page numbers and specific examples.
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May 1, 2019 11:43
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Post hoc ergo propter hoc
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May 1, 2019 11:48
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Discendo Vox posted:Short version: It operates by asserting all negative outcomes since general sanctions were caused directly by the general sanctions. It acknowledges this is a farcical assumption, then...does it anyways, repeatedly, at length, ignoring or reversing other causal assumptions to generate the most outrageous pull quotes possible. The issue seems to be what is the counter explanation considering the drop in both production and imports in 2017. The report does provide at least some data here, so I would like to see some harder evidence to the contrary. (Btw this isn’t a discussion of the previous issues the country was experiencing since at least before 2015).
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May 1, 2019 11:58
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, especially since in recent years there have been successful revolutions/revolts facing similar issues (if anything some of the anti-government forces in this case were at least armed from get-go). Which ones? Because from my perspective, you have revolutions where the military refused to fire on protesters and forced out the resident dictator (Often so the military could hold on to their own political/material power) such as in Egypt, and revolutions where the military did start firing back, such as Libya and Syria. In Venezuela, the upper echelons of the military have remained loyal because they have such a significant personal stake in the Maduro regime. So long as they can make money through drug smuggling, gold mining, and other illegal methods, they're not likely to go against Maduro—and while individual soldiers might defect, without organization and heavy equipment they're not going to be able to stand against the regime forces (Many of whom have an incentive to stay loyal as they're some of the few people in the country receiving a regular meal). Unarmed people aren't going to charge machine guns and it's insane to think that they would if only the opposition were slightly more popular. There are plenty of stories of people taking to the streets because they want to do what they can against the regime (see below), but at this point the regime still controls the vast majority of the guns and firepower of the state, and so long as they control those there's not exactly much the vast majority of the populace can do. https://twitter.com/ReutersVzla/status/1123415135006203905 Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 12:17 on May 1, 2019 |
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May 1, 2019 12:12
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So seeing Lopez running off to the Spanish embassy for asylum is going to completely deflate that guy. This coup attempt is dead.
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May 1, 2019 12:26
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Looks like the Chileans said no.
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May 1, 2019 12:28
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Ukraine is a good example where the threat of violence was present and at least enough of the population turned out. Btw, it isn’t that no one turned out, but it was clear from the live streams that the majority of the population didn’t come out, not to charge machine guns, but to be present. Also, the casualty reports seem relatively small, especially to illicit a comparison to Libya or Syria. Also, both countries fell completely into civil war soon after. It isn’t much of an argument. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 12:35 on May 1, 2019 |
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May 1, 2019 12:32
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The explanation that made the most sense to me was that the opposition blew it and lost a lot of credibility with the people when they kept calling for protests where THIS ONE would make all the difference, and then shrinking back from calling for the regime's overthrow while it was solidifying its power after nullifying the legislative election. I still think the people would clearly vote for the opposition in a free election, because it's still Maduro who's completely destroyed their standard of living and led to millions of people fleeing Maduro-induced poverty, but the opposition contributed to the frog in a slowly boiling pot aspect of Venezuela's collapse. I assume they thought the country would fall into their hands soon enough anyway, since Maduro seemed so clearly unacceptable, and that it wasn't worth risking their necks over.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 12:52 on May 1, 2019 |
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May 1, 2019 12:50
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Maduro's most successful move in this entire debacle has been to refuse to martyr Guaidó, allowing him to continue to make a fool out of himself.
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May 1, 2019 12:59
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beer_war posted:What we do know: The US is claiming this morning that Maduro is/has been at Fort Tiuna, not Miraflores. I also saw a Venezuelan reporter yesterday (@puzkas) say that there were tensions between those at Miraflores and those at Tiuna.
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May 1, 2019 13:20
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lmao what a loving failed coup good luck to the Venezuelans in how they might get rid of Maduro tho
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May 1, 2019 13:29
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wielder posted:It's ridiculous to throw in random percentage numbers here either for or against any side, of course His "80%+" of the country not backing Maduro is not really a random percentage. We know that Chavez received 55% of the vote in 2012 Maduro received 50.6% of the vote in 2013 Maduro's party received 41% of the vote in 2015 Maduro was polling around 30% prior to banning the opposition in 2018 Given the plummeting support for PSUV in the face of a sweeping humanitarian crisis, it is likely that Maduro's support is <20% in the country at the moment. We can't know for sure, because the country is now a dictatorship, but it is a close approximation given all we know of the context.
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May 1, 2019 13:32
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Private Witt posted:The US is claiming this morning that Maduro is/has been at Fort Tiuna, not Miraflores. Maduro made his address from Miraflores is what I was referring to. Given who is speaking for "the US", I don't put much stock in what they have to say. And while I respect Eugenio Martinez (@puzkas), that's nothing but a rumor. Could be true, could be nothing.
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May 1, 2019 14:04
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I don't know about actual polling numbers but I can tell you after this amazing coup the opposition approval rating collectively will be in the single digits
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May 1, 2019 14:07
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Cao Ni Ma posted:I don't know about actual polling numbers but I can tell you after this amazing coup the opposition approval rating collectively will be in the single digits Explains why Chavez never got any votes after his failed coup. People may not be willing to die for the opposition, but I strongly suspect they'd still prefer them to the current regime that's ruined their quality of life. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:14 on May 1, 2019 |
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May 1, 2019 14:11
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I mean, Maduro losing the head of his secret police (plus an unknown but apparently substantial number of his subordinates) seems pretty serious. Means that they'll have a much harder time predicting the next coup.
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May 1, 2019 14:24
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Or you can look at it this way: he lost a bunch that were not loyal, who now will be replaced by loyal ones
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May 1, 2019 14:26
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Elias_Maluco posted:Or you can look at it this way: he lost a bunch that were not loyal, who now will be replaced by loyal ones I wasn't aware trained, senior intelligence officers were particularly easy to replace. A kleptocratic narcostate under the baleful eye of the US State Department (and possibly also Russia and China) seems like one of those places that desperately needs good, trustworthy spies and has a really tough time recruiting and retaining them.
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May 1, 2019 14:30
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I was under the impression that these SEBIN types are mostly thugs. But I might be wrong
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May 1, 2019 14:35
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Elias_Maluco posted:I was under the impression that these SEBIN types are mostly thugs. But I might be wrong In all fairness, that line tends to be blurry under even the most successful regimes.
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May 1, 2019 14:40
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Elias_Maluco posted:I was under the impression that these SEBIN types are mostly thugs. But I might be wrong At the lower levels, yes. Which makes it an even bigger problem when the supposedly capable, trustworthy people at the upper levels whose entire job is to warn you of potential coups join a coup themselves. If Maduro has nobody but idiot criminal legbreakers to fall back on, he's in trouble if the CIA pushes harder, or if the SVR wants to have a long, intimate talk with him about all that money he stole from Rosneft.
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May 1, 2019 14:42
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Conspiratiorist posted:Maduro's most successful move in this entire debacle has been to refuse to martyr Guaidó, allowing him to continue to make a fool out of himself.
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May 1, 2019 14:45
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FlamingLiberal posted:Absolutely. Killing him would be a huge mistake and would probably end his regime It would also give the US the perfect pretext to send in troops which is probably what he's really afraid of.
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May 1, 2019 15:01
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Cao Ni Ma posted:I don't know about actual polling numbers but I can tell you after this amazing coup the opposition approval rating collectively will be in the single digits Can't wait for the opposition to boycott the next election and demand the UN not oversee it
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May 1, 2019 15:08
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MullardEL34 posted:Average Venezuelans are out there with all they've got, eg rocks, bottles, slingshots, and Molotov Cocktails. The majority of the civilian population has been disarmed since Chavez banned the private ownership of firearms in 2012. Of course this does not apply to the Colectivos or random criminal gangs that said "gently caress that" and continued to rob, rape, murder, and kidnap people with impunity ever since. I assume many of the civilians just kept their guns? I mean just because guns are banned doesn't mean that gun owners throw their guns away, as we've seen recently with New Zealand.
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May 1, 2019 15:23
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Darth Walrus posted:I mean, Maduro losing the head of his secret police (plus an unknown but apparently substantial number of his subordinates) seems pretty serious. Means that they'll have a much harder time predicting the next coup. I don't know how the Venezuelan intelligence services work, but if they're anything like the U.S. intelligence agencies, it won't be a problem. Our intelligence heads are political appointees who don't actually have that much expertise (remember, Pompeo was the CIA Director a year and change ago). It's deputy directors, station chiefs, senior analysts, etc, who are the seasoned pros. MullardEL34 posted:Jesus christ, the "anti-imperialists" in this thread seem to be super obsessed with racial purity. Ignore him, it's his bad gimmick itt.
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May 1, 2019 16:13
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edit Majorian is right Ardennes: the biggest alternative contributor to the decline in oil production etc noted in the CEPR analysis is the PSUV's mismanagement chickens coming home to roost - from what we know of the state of Venezuelan oil infrastructure it would be impossible for that to NOT impact production. Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 16:21 on May 1, 2019 |
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May 1, 2019 16:18
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The new head of Sebin is the guy the last one replaced, so he's not inexperienced anyway.
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May 1, 2019 16:20
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The CEPR analysis specifically fails to make any sort of attempt to account for anything else when it gives its pull quotes-there's not really any quantitative or statistical analysis. I'm at a keyboard now so I can quote my earlier post:Discendo Vox posted:Not even all excess deaths due to economic factors, all net increase deaths during the period. It's attributing every harm in the Venezuelan economy to the sanctions, then reversing the causal chain and ignoring all other causal factors. Look at the language on oil production capacity at the end of page 15 for another example of the same trick. They cite stats and mechanisms caused by the collapse before the 2017 general sanctions, then attribute the entirety of them to the general sanctions. See it also in the discussion of doctors fleeing the country. It's the same move over and over -somehow the prior economic situation, and the actions of the Maduro regime, don't exist in distinguishing or partialing effect sizes. Like, there are reasons there was severe hunger and brain drain in the country before 2017.
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May 1, 2019 16:24
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1123566081937956870?s=19 Seems like a bit of an escalation compared to the usual "all options on the table"
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May 1, 2019 16:45
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Elias_Maluco posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1123566081937956870?s=19 "All options on the table" is just a euphemism for "we are ready to invade" anyway
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May 1, 2019 16:52
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kidkissinger posted:"All options on the table" is just a euphemism for "we are ready to invade" anyway It's used in plenty of contexts where invasion isn't realistic, with multiple presidents saying it repeatedly about Iran, but it's definitely supposed to at least be taken as a credible threat. The US doesn't want to commit to invasion, but does want to threaten it enough that the Venezuelan military decides it's safer to overthrow Maduro than wait for outside intervention to force the issue.
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May 1, 2019 16:59
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Elias_Maluco posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1123566081937956870?s=19 That's bad.
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May 1, 2019 17:02
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Blackwater founder's plan for mercenaries in Venezuela: ReportAl Jazeera posted:Erik Prince - the founder of the controversial private security firm Blackwater and a prominent supporter of US President Donald Trump - has been pushing to deploy a private army to help topple Venezuela's socialist president, Nicholas Maduro, four sources with knowledge of the effort told Reuters. Biggest surprise from this article is that apparently Erik Prince is Betsy DeVos' brother? 
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May 1, 2019 17:08
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A mercenary invasion of Venezuela? Jesus... Nothing would be worse than that. A US military invasion of Venezuela is a total bluff, no way are they committing any troops to that. It would be a disaster for both the US and Venezuela.
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May 1, 2019 17:12
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