Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

Claes Oldenburger: Apr 23, 2010; Metal magician!

Baronjutter posted:

I think those of us in the Canpol threads know we're just shouting into the void and shootin' the poo poo about various issues. But a lot of more right-wing political forums/reddits honestly think they're evidence of some silent majority.

Case in point, Victoria's right wing forums. During the city elections they had poll after poll on their site and facebook for the election, which kept showing all the right wing candidates (who were all raving nimby's too, ironic) coming out with massive leads. They declared that reddit, facebook, and their own website represented a true cross-section of Victoria and began celebrating the end of the socialist SJW menace. They were posting big theories on how it's a clear sign that their activism and outreach has changed people's minds, educated the voters on the dangers of bike lane socialism, and finally the silent centrist majority of the city were going to be heard and restore common sense to the city.

They were in absolute shock and despair, with many seriously worrying there was some sort of election-rigging going on, when the election was an absolute sweep for the left wing candidates.

I guess more than anything it's a good to reminder to me that echo chambers exist everywhere, and the stress they cause me could possibly be slightly alleviated by just... not going on reddit haha.

# ? May 10, 2019 19:16

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# ? May 27, 2024 16:20

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

Claes Oldenburger posted:

I guess more than anything it's a good to reminder to me that echo chambers exist everywhere, and the stress they cause me could possibly be slightly alleviated by just... not going on reddit haha.

There is about 3 or 4 dudes in the Calgary reddit that private message people with some pretty hateful stuff.

Its not great, so I've just stuck to drive by poo poo posting. Much like this thread.

# ? May 10, 2019 19:38

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Why would you ever read the poo poo that turns up in your reddit private messages? I have like 300 unread messages, never read any and never will.

# ? May 10, 2019 20:44

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Reddit's a pretty tight demo as well. Bulk on people on the regional subs will be in their 20's and 30's, and usually skews heavier towards tech/STEM people.

Anyone under 20 is on an app of some kind and everyone over 40 is on Facebook.

But yeah, nobody is influencing anyone there.

# ? May 10, 2019 22:22

apatheticman: May 13, 2003; Wedge Regret

cowofwar posted:

Why would you ever read the poo poo that turns up in your reddit private messages? I have like 300 unread messages, never read any and never will.

Browser notifications don't discriminate between replys or dms.

# ? May 11, 2019 01:06

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Claes Oldenburger posted:

My g/f and I were talking about this last night, I'm curious how much influence forums and the like actually have on the market.

Like does the van subreddit actually have any reach and influence on the local population, even indirectly?

I have ended on up the CBC five times in ten years via Reddit posts, and I once cost Hootsuite over a hundred thousand dollars in fines and a national front-page scandal after a reddit post. :shrug:

Superised to see this Misher handle show up elsewhere though, I thought that was just an /r/van troll account.

Rime fucked around with this message at 03:34 on May 11, 2019

# ? May 11, 2019 03:29

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Baronjutter posted:

Honestly, a lot of YIMBY's I've known are just big fans of buildings and construction. They're like train enthusiasts pushing as hard as they can for more rail-based transport in the region, sure they can come up with a lot of good reasons and sometimes they're right, but their core motivation is just a love of trains and a desire to see more of them around. A ton of YIMBY's just love big shiny new buildings and modern architecture. They love the marketing and first-shovel ceremonies and keep track of every new building going up and love to gush online about how they feel about the architecture and how this latest project just might end up being the coolest new building in the city.

That's their core motivation, just a love of new big tall buildings, everything else becomes a rationalization.

That's the SkyscraperPages people for sure. Abundant Housing Vancouver YIMBYs seem more united around their shared hatred of Single Family Homes. I mean I can get behind that, gently caress those rich NIMBYs that oppose everything to retain their exclusive wastefully low density properties, but I have a problem when the Anti-SFH view becomes not just part of a holistic approach to improving Vancouver's housing options, but literally the only viewpoint possible and the rejection of all others.

I mean how broke brained do you have to be to read about the money laundering issue and then tweet this?

https://twitter.com/karensawa/status/1126587846326796288

or this

https://twitter.com/amoralorealis/status/1126891954355052544

The real issue clearly isn't the money laundering, but that the report authors mentioned which persons were laundering the money and where it was going (which is of course racist obviously?).

It's remarkable to me how tribal the conversation has become. For Bradshaw and AHV, any attention given to an aspect of the housing crisis that isn't their pet issue (SFH are bad) somehow becomes attack on them, and this must be undermined, and attacked in attempt to change the channel in an attempt to refocus people back to the supply side solutions they favour. One would have to be remarkably insecure to behave this way. In reality there's no either/or here. Vancouver can be a hotbed of criminal activity which could negatively impact the housing market and also need land use reform. AHV is feeling threatened by this report and I have no idea why.

# ? May 11, 2019 05:11

UnfortunateSexFart: May 18, 2008; ð» ððð« ð·ððð·
ð ð ð ð« ð®ð ð¾ð ð ð¡ððð

I admit I started reading skyscraper page because I liked pretty glass towers but as I got older/wiser I started seeing them more as a plague on the city.

But now I live in an even bigger city that builds 80+ storey condos like it's nothing lol. Every morning I get woken up by the four towers going up within 200 feet of my place, it's literal hell lol kill me I'm so sleep deprived

But at least two bedroom units only cost a mere $500k instead of seven figures.

# ? May 11, 2019 09:57

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Trip report: The Kootenays are hosed, distorted beyond all economic sensibility, and the crash is going to ruin anyone out there.

Kaslo for example is averaging over half a million for a house, and they're selling right now, but half the businesses in the downtown are boarded up and its obviously far from anything resembling an economy. Once boomers die and the oilfields stop paying out, it's hosed. So hosed.

# ? May 12, 2019 03:34

sitchensis: Mar 4, 2009

I went to Kaslo last summer and was utterly charmed.

Then I looked at the property prices. Guess even a little town that's an eight hour drive from anywhere isn't immune.

Probably for the best though (maybe in a sour grapes kind of way) as I imagine it will be one of the first places to get incinerated in the coming decades once fire season really starts taking off.

# ? May 13, 2019 16:52

Claes Oldenburger: Apr 23, 2010; Metal magician!

What does Kaslo have now that people are willing to pay that much for? Is it just a "suburb" of nelson that people are living in?

# ? May 13, 2019 17:12

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

A lot of small rural places with no real economy still have an affordable housing crisis because the economy isn't good enough to generate new housing development, while existing housing is leaking to Airbnb, and decaying due to age. Haida Gwaii is starting to experience this issue. I was up on Haida Gwaii recently and someone told me that the cannery in Masset wants to expand and hire 100 people. I honestly don't know where they'd all live. I dunno if the company would have to build temporary modular homes or what.

I don't know anything about Kaslo, but is there a lot of housing around? If there's a limited amount of housing and stuff is just being sold to Albertans for vacation homes or something that could explain stagnant, relatively high prices? I dunno.

We know from that recent report that houses are a great way to launder money. Maybe all these 500k houses in Kaslo have like 20 mortgages on them that are getting paid off with bags of marijuana cash.

# ? May 13, 2019 17:16

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

There's a reasonable amount of housing on the market, for a dying town which is 4-5 hours drive from any other town with a population over 2000, and zero local economy besides tourism, a couple of stock-promotion mine scams, and small scale logging. Straight up, half the businesses downtown were boarded up and for sale.

Same with New Denver, same with Silverton, same with Slocan.

AirBnB is a definite issue, a significant number of the 41 listings are full houses downtown.

quote:

Limiting the rentals doesn�t seem to be an option. A proposal from council to restrict short-term rentals to properties where the owner or a longer-term tenant also lives met with fierce opposition.

�There�s just too much push back, we were really surprised at the number of people who were opposed. We decided to pull the residency requirement,� Martin said.

That article is a beautiful example of how and why we're being turbofucked by these parasitic tech companies, however. A blanket ban at the provincial or federal level, with active rather than complaints-based enforcement of regulations, is the only solution.

Rime fucked around with this message at 17:33 on May 13, 2019

# ? May 13, 2019 17:31

PT6A: Jan 5, 2006; Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Rime posted:

There's a reasonable amount of housing on the market, for a dying town which is 4-5 hours drive from any other town with a population over 2000, and zero local economy besides tourism, a couple of stock-promotion mine scams, and small scale logging. Straight up, half the businesses downtown were boarded up and for sale.

Same with New Denver, same with Silverton, same with Slocan.

AirBnB is a definite issue, a significant number of the 41 listings are full houses downtown.

I grew up out there, and I can honestly say that I have no idea whatsoever why anyone would choose to move there at this point. I'm not even completely clear why my parents chose to move there at the time, and it was cheap as gently caress at that point with a slightly less hosed economy.

# ? May 13, 2019 17:40

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

41 listings! Sounds like Airbnb is even more of a thing in Kaslo than in Haida Gwaii.

I'm honestly not too surprised that there's mixed feelings about Airbnb in some of these small towns with some decrying it while others seeing it as a lifeline. I mean when there's no other economy to speak of like you say, then a pivot to tourism and renting out your place to try to cash in on that is the only thing that makes any sense. For towns experiencing that transition I think they need to embrace it, but also layer on some rules and taxes to ensure that the greater community benefits from the tourism uptick, not just some absentee owners.

# ? May 13, 2019 17:41

unknown: Nov 16, 2002; Ain't got no stinking title yet!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/flood-plains-1.5135336

quote:

Updated flood plain maps will send the housing market underwater: Neil Macdonald
(Opinion)

Note to outraged conservative readers: this opinion column was not assigned by Katie Telford. (The only world in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's chief of staff actually assigns journalists is the fever swamp of right-wing conspiracy theories).

No, this column was inspired by the sight of sandbags and portable toilets on the streets of a neighbourhood near the Ottawa River where I very nearly bought a house four years ago. That those negotiations fell through, in retrospect, was a bolt of luck for which I am now profoundly grateful.

I would never consider buying near the river nowadays, for obvious reasons, and my guess is the miserable residents on those sandbagged streets spend a lot of time contemplating both their home values and the next catastrophic flood. There have been two in the last three years. The Ottawa River surged past its banks weeks ago, and is still frighteningly swollen.

It never occurred to me, back in 2015, to check whether the home we tried to buy was at risk of flooding. Being near the river was a plus, not a threat. And even if I had checked, it probably wouldn't have done much good. Flood plain maps in Canada are about 25 years out of date.

But that's about to change. Next year, the federal government will begin uploading nearly 2,000 user-friendly flood plain maps, updating them with the most recent geospatial data. Eventually, entire communities will find themselves publicly identified as at-risk. What that will do to the value of their homes and their flood insurance premiums (assuming they can even get insurance), is obvious.

Drastic market devaluation

"Oh! Oh!," says Prof. Blair Feltmate, delighted to have been asked. "There is going to be a massive devaluation of the housing industry in Canada, guaranteed. A million will turn into $500,000 very rapidly."

Feltmate is head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo, one of those elite, leading-expert Cassandras so many of us just try to ignore.

Now, before the fever swampers start yelling conspiracy, this push to update flood plain maps is not coming from Liberal climate-change evangelists like Catherine McKenna, Trudeau's environment minister. Or David Suzuki. Or the Green Party. It is coming from the insurance industry. Put another way, conservatives: market forces. Feltmate's centre is largely funded by Intact Insurance, one of the industry's biggest players.

That's hardly surprising; no industry's profits are more immediately threatened by climate change than insurance. Between 1983 and 2008, says Feltmate, annual insurance payouts for catastrophic events in Canada, mostly flooding, averaged between $250 million and $450 million a year. In nine of the 10 years since 2009, the average annual payout has been $1.8 billion. The average payout for a flooded basement is $43,000 and rising.

So the industry wants two things: to push for flood-proofing, and to reassess premiums (or decide where not to insure, period). For that, it needs data. New, updated flood risk maps will give it clear justification to begin dramatically hiking premiums for some homeowners, or refusing them insurance completely. It doesn't take much imagination to guess what will happen when the new maps begin to appear.

"It will put the new areas (newly included in flood plains) into panic mode," says Feltmate.

"There will be big pushback, big alarm. Now your home is stigmatized. A home is worth exactly as much as someone is willing to write a cheque for, and who would write a big cheque for a house suddenly identified as at risk of flooding?

"You will see people begin to default on their mortgages, because they know they owe more on the home than it will ever be worth."

The shorthand term for that in the real estate market is "going underwater." Until now, that term was figurative, not literal.

Furthermore, says Feltmate, the new data will also confirm what experts have known for some time: five per cent of at-risk homes in Canada cannot be saved. Their owners will have to evacuate.

Incentives to relocate

That's already begun. The (conservative) Quebec government, citing climate change, has decided to cap flooding relief, and is now offering residents in areas at extreme risk of flooding $200,000 to move somewhere else.

The reaction, of course, was immediate. Flooded homeowners all over the province told reporters that the government offer doesn't begin to cover what they think is the value of their homes. In fact, their homes' true value, in some cases, is now probably close to zero. After the catastrophes of 2017 and 2019, who would buy a home near the water in Pointe Gatineau, across from Ottawa? Or Lac Deux Montagnes, west of Montreal? Or parts of London, Ontario, or Calgary?

Feltmate says governments may eventually have to force high-risk residents to leave: Here's some money, we're shutting off your utilities.

And, he says, it's not a matter of whether there will be more flooding.

"What we have seen so far is nothing compared to what is coming. It is simply fact that the atmosphere is warming, and warmer air carries more moisture. This is the new normal."

The changes that have taken place so far, says Feltmate � and this is on public record, most recently affirmed in the alarming report by federal scientists released last month � are irreversible. And it is going to get worse, faster, and soon.

Home inspectors, most of them until now minimally trained in basement flood assessment, are taking courses that will no doubt become mandatory. Colleges are actually putting the courses online. Mortgage providers will almost certainly begin demanding such assessments as a condition of approval. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which insures mortgages, will likely start insisting on it.

If there is any good news here, it is that communities and homeowners can take steps to drastically reduce flood risk. It will be possible to effectively remediate yourself off those flood plain maps, and protect the value of your home. But it will cost money.

Feltmate's Intact Centre lists steps anyone can take to keep the basement dry during anything short of Noah's flood. Installing two sump pumps with battery backup that will keep working when the power goes out. Waterproofing windows at ground level. Ensuring downspouts empty a good distance from your foundation. Installing backflow valves. Clearing eavestroughs and drains. Even digging up and replacing the grading around your house.

And, says Feltmate, people with homes on higher ground shouldn't feel smug. "Waterbomb" storms, now happening far more frequently, can (and will) turn an entire city into a flood plain instantly. At-risk communities can install concrete barriers, berms, diversion channels, underground cisterns, and improve natural swales � wetlands and marshes that act as natural drains.

And governments must start forbidding new home construction on flood plains. Unbelievably, most provinces � Ontario is the only one that asserts provincial control � leave that decision to municipalities, some of which, idiotically, still allow it, under pressure from developers and craving new property tax revenue.

The plain reality is that flood-proofing Canada will be staggeringly, historically costly. But the cost of not flood-proofing Canada will be incalculable.

It absolutely has to be done, and it has to be done now. The only question is, who's going to pay for it?

That's a political question. And it's not a subject Katie Telford, or anybody in any party trying to win this fall's election, probably wants to talk about right now. There's a reason those maps weren't updated for a quarter century.

More on that next week.

# ? May 14, 2019 19:53

incontinence 100: Dec 21, 2018; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Neil "low interest rates cause hyperinflation" MacDonald

# ? May 14, 2019 20:24

Linkletter: Aug 4, 2004

PUBLIC INQUIRY!!!

# ? May 15, 2019 20:18

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

Linkletter posted:

PUBLIC INQUIRY!!!

There is justice!

# ? May 15, 2019 22:11

RBC: Nov 23, 2007; IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

never get between a boomer and their property values

# ? May 15, 2019 22:26

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

RBC posted:

never get between a boomer and their property values

The french actually invented a specialty tool for doing exactly this!

# ? May 15, 2019 23:15

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Let's see how the Abundant Housing Vancouver membership is weighing in on the news that we're gonna keep investigating money laundering further...

https://twitter.com/thomas_falcone/status/1128768726185103361

:yikes:

# ? May 15, 2019 23:23

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

Femtosecond posted:

AHV is feeling threatened by this report and I have no idea why.

Oh I think you know why. Search your feelings, Luke. You know it to be true

# ? May 15, 2019 23:31

incontinence 100: Dec 21, 2018; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

You guys read this?

Vancouver�s Dirty Money Figures: The Smoking Gun That Wasn�t https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/vancouver-s-dirty-money-figures-the-smoking-gun-that-wasn-t

# ? May 15, 2019 23:56

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

incontinence 100 posted:

You guys read this?

Vancouver�s Dirty Money Figures: The Smoking Gun That Wasn�t https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/vancouver-s-dirty-money-figures-the-smoking-gun-that-wasn-t

Bullshit headline. Using this logic, no economic methods used by anyone ever should be ever used to make a decision. What tripe.

About time we got an inquiry. The Liberals have at best ignored this problem for years, while slowly destroyed the fabric of our province, because they were all individually getting rich off it. Meanwhile, the honest, taxpaying citizens, and young families trying to eke out an existence get left well behind. I can't wait to watch Christy Clark dissembling on the stand about what she knew and when she knew it. Rich Coleman, now that I'd pay money to see!

# ? May 16, 2019 00:15

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Using this logic, no economic methods used by anyone ever should be ever used to make a decision. What tripe.

It's Bloomberg and the current year is greater than 1971, so yeah

# ? May 16, 2019 00:17

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Might pop a lil chubby if this eventually leads to me seeing Rich Coleman getting perp walked on the news.

A man can dream...

# ? May 16, 2019 02:43

Mandibular Fiasco: Oct 14, 2012

The Butcher posted:

Might pop a lil chubby if this eventually leads to me seeing Rich Coleman getting perp walked on the news.

A man can dream...

Did you see the scrum? The words and the scared shitless look on his face were completely contradictory. 'Whining' indeed.

# ? May 16, 2019 04:31

incontinence 100: Dec 21, 2018; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Christy Clark
Mike DeJong
Suzan Anton
Shirley Bond
Andrew Wilkinson

I'm just saying you need to think bigger.

# ? May 16, 2019 05:24

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

Gordon Campbell too if we're lucky.

The promotion of money laundering by the BC Liberals while holding the legislature goes way back.

# ? May 16, 2019 08:02

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Femtosecond posted:

Let's see how the Abundant Housing Vancouver membership is weighing in on the news that we're gonna keep investigating money laundering further...

https://twitter.com/thomas_falcone/status/1128768726185103361

I know that guy. He's a dirtbag that's on marriage #2 (or 3 maybe I can't recall) after cheating on his wife.

# ? May 16, 2019 08:33

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Oh yeah he also pivoted from NDP supporter to BCLibs the second he had any personal skin in the property market sooo

# ? May 16, 2019 08:40

HookShot: Dec 26, 2005

I'm trying not to get my hopes up but god drat the idea of Clark getting perpwalked is just so good.

# ? May 16, 2019 14:20

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

JawKnee posted:

Oh yeah he also pivoted from NDP supporter to BCLibs the second he had any personal skin in the property market sooo

he identifies as a "heterodox liberal" in his bio, lol

# ? May 16, 2019 19:13

ARACHTION: Mar 10, 2012

If I live to see Christy and Campbell get perp walked I think I will have lived a good life.

The CBC comment section on this story was comforting. It seems BC Lib corruption is universally accepted. The only defense now is people claiming that though it could be good our economy is actually based on gangsterism and it�s too late to look back.

# ? May 16, 2019 22:59

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Yeah it's a bit like climate change now. No one says it isn't happening, it's just that some people think it's good.

The folks who think money laundering is good for the economy remind me of the sort of folk who think climate change will be great for "opening up land" and a net benefit for Canada.

# ? May 16, 2019 23:13

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Baronjutter posted:

Yeah it's a bit like climate change now. No one says it isn't happening, it's just that some people think it's good.

The folks who think money laundering is good for the economy remind me of the sort of folk who think climate change will be great for "opening up land" and a net benefit for Canada.

Wait, are you saying that they are making more land?!?

...

# ? May 16, 2019 23:24

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

ocrumsprug posted:

Wait, are you saying that they are making more land?!?

...

All the impenetrable muskeg and boreal forests you could ask for my friend, but now, with extra fire and water!

# ? May 17, 2019 02:39

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

THC posted:

Oh I think you know why. Search your feelings, Luke. You know it to be true

AHV members feeling the need to post FUD about the money laundering inquiry seems like an example of political tribalism making them stupid.

At a glance of twitter bios Abundant Housing Vancouver members are most typically tech bros and not directly connected to the FIRE industry, the thing that binds them together is a desire to do away with explicit single family housing zoning and allow dense housing in those areas. While I'm sure many members are probably pro-any and all new housing of any type, the most explicit activism AHV is currently engaged in is supporting purpose built rental. How does such a group become negative on investigating money laundering?

The opposing viewpoint in the Vancouver housing debate is less focused on rental vacancy, and more on house prices, and views that the level of housing development in Vancouver is fine and not the issue, but rather 'toxic demand' whether it be foreign capital, empty homes, airbnb or money launderers is what is pushing housing prices upward and also reducing rental vacancy. Recently money laundering is something prominent demand siders on twitter have really latched onto as a problem they care about.

Over the years these groups have gotten in enough #vanre twitter tussles that that they hate each other and have blocked each other.

The viewpoint that 'money laundering is out of control and needs to be investigated' is of course wholly compatible with the idea that 'SFH zoning only benefits the ultra rich and we should build purpose built rental in these areas instead' and yet nonetheless AHV members this week have been throwing shade on money laundering reporting.

Essentially we're at the point that if demand siders like it, supply siders gotta hate it, no matter what it is. That's how broken brained #vanre twitter people are.

# ? May 17, 2019 18:46

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# ? May 27, 2024 16:20

Juul-Whip: Mar 10, 2008

Nah, that's not what I was getting at. It's because "moar supply" was only ever contingent on their handlers (developers) making a certain amount of money off that new "supply". Which is why a number of projects are now on hold or cancelled. It was never supposed to actually result in lower prices and they knew it. It was only ever about bigger profits for developers.

I'll grant that maybe a few idiots actually believed it would work as advertised, just as there are some who legitimately believe in trickle-down economics. But the higher profile shills know what's up.

Juul-Whip fucked around with this message at 20:19 on May 17, 2019

# ? May 17, 2019 19:52

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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