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Elon's biggest mistake was trying to actually manufacture something. He should have CRobertsed it. Could have had the whales pre-ordering increasingly unlikely Teslas for years.
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Jun 12, 2019 15:06
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Elon's biggest mistake was trying to actually manufacture something. He should have CRobertsed it. Could have had the whales pre-ordering increasingly unlikely Teslas for years. But he's doing that. Pre-orders are up for the ridiculous semi truck for example.
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Jun 12, 2019 15:44
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Like if anyone actually had working driverless car technology, I'm pretty sure we are going to hear about it and they are going to be taking pre-orders years in advance. Working by what definition? There is self driving and driverless vehicles on the road right this second. Driving right now. Like I get them not being up to your personal standard on range or safety or something and you therefore not liking them, but they don't not exist.
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Jun 12, 2019 16:00
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Working by what definition? There is self driving and driverless vehicles on the road right this second. Driving right now. Like I get them not being up to your personal standard on range or safety or something and you therefore not liking them, but they don't not exist. Even with the issue of randomly crashing into 18 wheelers, I'm not sure whether these kinds of incidents make them less safe on the whole than a manually driven car. Is there enough data out there to examine this yet?
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Jun 12, 2019 16:03
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Working by what definition? There is self driving and driverless vehicles on the road right this second. Driving right now. Like I get them not being up to your personal standard on range or safety or something and you therefore not liking them, but they don't not exist. working in the sense that they are available for purchase by the average person, the only driverless vehicles on the road right now are mislabeled deathtraps or prototype test beds doing gimmick loops around campuses and tourist areas
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Jun 12, 2019 16:15
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really looking foward to this argument of "a thing exists in one location, therefore your argument about mass adoption of consumer technology is invalid" thoughThere Bias Two posted:Even with the issue of randomly crashing into 18 wheelers, I'm not sure whether these kinds of incidents make them less safe on the whole than a manually driven car. Is there enough data out there to examine this yet? lol no, tesla keeps their data under tight wraps which is hugely suspicious given ol musky's tendency to self report on his horney level over twitter and leak all manner of internal documents
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Jun 12, 2019 16:18
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luxury handset posted:working in the sense that they are available for purchase by the average person, the only driverless vehicles on the road right now are mislabeled deathtraps or prototype test beds doing gimmick loops around campuses and tourist areas Again, you not liking or approving of a thing is different than claiming it doesn't exist.
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Jun 12, 2019 16:19
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Again, you not liking or approving of a thing is different than claiming it doesn't exist. luxury handset posted:really looking foward to this argument of "a thing exists in one location, therefore your argument about mass adoption of consumer technology is invalid" though
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Jun 12, 2019 16:19
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Surprise Giraffe posted:Ok, I guess not thinking driverless cars are implausible in 5-10 years is not forums-acceptable. Thats all I needed to know Oh, please. The problem you keep running in to here is that you don't have anything to say on any of these topics that isn't about your fantasies about what technology will be like in X years or that technological advancement is inevitable, so no one should question it. I don't know what to do with your posts on the subject. Hell, it might even be interesting to read an explanation about why you seem to be so enamored with technology. Certainly more so than another few vacuous paragraphs about how great technology is. On the other hand, I can think about specific criticisms of technologies and I can reject them, accept them, argue about them or forget them.
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Jun 12, 2019 21:18
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Again, you not liking or approving of a thing is different than claiming it doesn't exist.
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Jun 12, 2019 21:28
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The fact that Waymo has massively slowed their expansion plans is a huge sign that there are hard problems left to solve. I still think the issue is the car wants to follow the rules of the road but we’ve created driving conditions that pretty much require violating it. Complaints about the Waymo cars being skittish at high traffic unprotected left turns is a good example of this. It’s a lot easier to teach a machine to turn left when it has enough space versus teaching it when to turn left into a rules violation but expect the opposing driver will slow in response and it won’t actually be too close.
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Jun 12, 2019 21:29
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luxury handset posted:working in the sense that they are available for purchase by the average person, the only driverless vehicles on the road right now are mislabeled deathtraps or prototype test beds doing gimmick loops around campuses and tourist areas you're arguing against a dude whose first defense against deathttaps is to immediately jump to victim blaming
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Jun 12, 2019 21:36
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Trabisnikof posted:I still think the issue is the car wants to follow the rules of the road but we’ve created driving conditions that pretty much require violating it. yeah, one big issue is that the rules of the road aren't fully objective, but rather fuzzy and arbitrary guidelines on human behavior one fun example is tolerance for speeding. in some places, you will get a ticket if you are above the speed limit, no question. in other places - the american south, for example - it is common for people to habitually go more than ten miles over, and you have to stand out quite a lot for a cop to give you a ticket for speed (for reasons other than the speeding being a pretext to stop brown/black drivers). i've been doing ten over and getting passed by cops who are keeping up with traffic. you just can't pull everyone over if everyone ignores the speed limit so this raises a question - do self driving cars strictly follow the speed limit as they should, or do they follow the flow of traffic? it is possible for self driving cars to reference road segments they are on per internal navigation and adhere to stored metadata around what speed that road segment is limited to. meanwhile other drivers may be blasting past the self driving car in an unsafe way. or do you create a machine which routinely violates the law, and how does that spin out from a corporate/insurance liability standpoint?
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Jun 12, 2019 21:52
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Trabisnikof posted:
The rules of the road aren't even consistent across the entirety of individual US states, much less across the whole US or the world. And hell, a lot of driver "rules violations" amount to people driving based on rules as taught to them back when they first got a license, which are often not even consistent over that time frame let alone where they've moved.
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Jun 12, 2019 22:49
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luxury handset posted:so this raises a question - do self driving cars strictly follow the speed limit as they should, or do they follow the flow of traffic? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoETMCosULQ They got tickets for the stunt, because you have to both Obey The Speed Limit and Not Impede Traffic even when it's physically impossible to do both. "They could just get into the right lane then" well yeah, it's like 6 kids. Mass deployment of real self-driving cars is going to fill the roads and make traffic infinitely worse.
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Jun 12, 2019 23:20
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luxury handset posted:so this raises a question - do self driving cars strictly follow the speed limit as they should, or do they follow the flow of traffic? it is possible for self driving cars to reference road segments they are on per internal navigation and adhere to stored metadata around what speed that road segment is limited to. meanwhile other drivers may be blasting past the self driving car in an unsafe way. or do you create a machine which routinely violates the law, and how does that spin out from a corporate/insurance liability standpoint? This is legitimately a huge problem for highways in the northeast. Like, forget 10mph over, there are highways in CT where traveling only 10mph over is a harrowing experience because you're practically an unmoving obstacle. Back when I had to commute on 15, it was rare for the average speed of traffic to be less than 15-20mph over the limit. I actually have no idea how you deal with that because there's actually no good answer. You probably won't get a ticket for driving 75mph, but you're not really safe and you might. On the other hand, driving the speed limit is dangerous for you and everyone around you on most days. There's no objectively good compromise where you're both legally safe and you aren't obstructing traffic in a dangerous way.
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Jun 13, 2019 02:08
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Paradoxish posted:This is legitimately a huge problem for highways in the northeast. Like, forget 10mph over, there are highways in CT where traveling only 10mph over is a harrowing experience because you're practically an unmoving obstacle. Back when I had to commute on 15, it was rare for the average speed of traffic to be less than 15-20mph over the limit. For GM supercriuse and other non-tesla self driving you still set the speed yourself, right? And it only slows from that for traffic.
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Jun 13, 2019 02:15
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Paradoxish posted:This is legitimately a huge problem for highways in the northeast. Like, forget 10mph over, there are highways in CT where traveling only 10mph over is a harrowing experience because you're practically an unmoving obstacle. Back when I had to commute on 15, it was rare for the average speed of traffic to be less than 15-20mph over the limit. This is a huge problem that needs to be legally recognized. Having wildly asymmetric closing speeds is pretty much the most dangerous thing to encourage on a highway. And the current speed limits and laws/application of those laws encourages this.
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Jun 13, 2019 02:27
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Twerk from Home posted:For GM supercriuse and other non-tesla self driving you still set the speed yourself, right? And it only slows from that for traffic. Are you talking about 10 year old radar assisted cruise control? If so, yes: you set a max speed and a following distance.
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Jun 13, 2019 02:28
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Motronic posted:This is a huge problem that needs to be legally recognized. Having wildly asymmetric closing speeds is pretty much the most dangerous thing to encourage on a highway. And the current speed limits and laws/application of those laws encourages this. It's almost like a lot of
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Jun 13, 2019 03:52
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Motronic posted:Are you talking about 10 year old radar assisted cruise control? If so, yes: you set a max speed and a following distance. Super cruise is their brand name for their hands free driving thats limited to certain freeways only and its limited to 85mph apparently but will still let you speed below that.
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Jun 13, 2019 04:13
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luxury handset posted:in other places - the american south, for example - it is common for people to habitually go more than ten miles over, and you have to stand out quite a lot for a cop to give you a ticket for speed (for reasons other than the speeding being a pretext to stop brown/black drivers). Can't help but imagine techlords solving this by implementing a race setting in the driver's profile Tesla Model S P90 with Caucasian Mode
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Jun 13, 2019 05:20
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Trabisnikof posted:The fact that Waymo has massively slowed their expansion plans is a huge sign that there are hard problems left to solve. One thing that has struck me about driving since I moved to Italy is how it is unambiguously a social task here. In the US, the lanes are wide and the rules are fairly firm about things like right of way because the heavy traffic roads get lights installed pretty soon after they become heavy traffic roads, if not before. The one exception I saw regularly in the US was 4-way stops which are pretty much a free-for-all with a thick layer of recognizing the pattern and following it. When someone doesn't, you get near- or actual-collisions. This contrasts dramatically with Italian driving, in which the rules are flexible (in practice, if not in policy, I have no idea): scooters weave in and out of traffic, stop signs are yield signs, roundabouts are plentiful, the streets are narrow, merges are apparently chaos (I haven't figured them out yet) and on and on. And I live in the north, apparently the south of Italy is practically bedlam. All of that is to say I think your line of thought is correct, about cars not being able to follow broken rules, but incorrect in the sense that people ARE following a set of rules. They just aren't the rules in the policy-book. The distinction seems important to me, because if it is simply a problem of rules-breaking, you can come up with a policy solution and ignore the shortcomings of AI, i.e. have traffic enforcement descend on the area and try to fine the population in to compliance. I don't think that will work, but I can see some executive working on AI cars downplaying the social aspect of driving using that argument. When really, they need to be building the social rules in to the AI. The latter being a way, way harder problem than staying in lanes and accelerating when a red light turns green.
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Jun 13, 2019 12:55
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Paradoxish posted:This is legitimately a huge problem for highways in the northeast. Like, forget 10mph over, there are highways in CT where traveling only 10mph over is a harrowing experience because you're practically an unmoving obstacle. Back when I had to commute on 15, it was rare for the average speed of traffic to be less than 15-20mph over the limit. In Massachusetts people seem a little more restrained but, yeah, in CT 20 over the speed limit is the norm for some reason and the occasional person who doesn't know this turns into a moving roadblock that cars are constantly dangerously blasting across lanes to get around.
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Jun 13, 2019 13:17
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When I moved to CT it took some getting used to that you could be doing 75-80mph in a 55mph zone (Rt15) and cops would still rocket past you on a lovely 2 lane parkway with no shoulder (merrit/wilbur cross) Especially coming from Aus where you get speeding fines for doing 105kph in 100 zone 
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Jun 13, 2019 13:27
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simmyb posted:When I moved to CT it took some getting used to that you could be doing 75-80mph in a 55mph zone (Rt15) and cops would still rocket past you on a lovely 2 lane parkway with no shoulder (merrit/wilbur cross) They like the power trip of being able to pull cars over arbitrarily for "speeding".
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Jun 13, 2019 14:09
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It's why driving while black is so dangerous in parts of the states Almost everyone speeds as a matter of course, and the cops can selectively pick you out of 100 cars that are all speeding and give you the "do you know how fast you were going" routine
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Jun 13, 2019 14:21
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The only time I ever see people going down to the speed limit is when there's a cop car around. I would like to see how badly the state government does if all its employees driving in were actually committed to ten over the written speed limit state police claims they enforce.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:24
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Isn't 20 mph over the limit usually where fines / penalties / points get enormous? 20 over means mandatory jail time in Virginia: https://jalopnik.com/never-speed-in-virginia-lessons-from-my-three-days-in-1613604053 I had a cop in Texas write me up for 19 over once after he had a good conversation with me and wanted me to be able to dismiss it through defensive driving.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:26
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loving lol at the guy who thought that if he pretended to be on his phone, people would be less angry with him
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Jun 13, 2019 14:27
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Wallet posted:In Massachusetts people seem a little more restrained … I grew up in VT and then lived in the Denver area for about 15 years before moving back to VT. My wife is from MA and when we go there to visit her family, I'm apoplectic driving the entire time because she's constantly telling me how to drive contrary to every written and unwritten rule I've encountered in 30 years of driving. Her: You can't go that slow here! Me: But the speed limit back there said 40? Her: YOU'RE GOING TOO SLOW! SPEED UP! *10 seconds later* Her: OMG, it's 30 and you're going 50! Me: What? When did the speed change? Her: The sign was behind that tree, SLOW DOWN! If CT is worse than that, I can't even imagine how self-driving cars can possibly be programmed for New England Calvinball driving rules.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:32
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Cheesus posted:Wow. Maybe it's time to crack down on calvinball rules, anyway.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:35
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Basically human drivers are poo poo and self driving cars would be a step up, but public transportation would be better by every metric except you wouldn't be able to have 'Murican Car Culture™.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:40
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I'm mostly happy with public transportation for most commutes, using zipcar (or equivalents) for the rare times where a car is essential, or cabs when I need to go somewhere and won't be coming back within a reasonable time.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:42
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Cheesus posted:If CT is worse than that, I can't even imagine how self-driving cars can possibly be programmed for New England Calvinball driving rules. it's actually not that bad, GPS navigational devices have a stored database of road networks. the way the device works is that you snap to the network based on the reported GPS location and then calculate a route. each little road segment can have data stored on it about road composition, speed limit, etc. this is how a GPS navigator can warn you to slow down despite having no other external sensing capability other than knowing where it is relative to the GPS network. so long as your database isn't wildly out of date it will be accurate enough. so the car only needs to keep an eye out for variances from this internal dataset like temporary construction markers and the like
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Jun 13, 2019 14:46
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luxury handset posted:it's actually not that bad, GPS navigational devices have a stored database of road networks. the way the device works is that you snap to the network based on the reported GPS location and then calculate a route. each little road segment can have data stored on it about road composition, speed limit, etc. this is how a GPS navigator can warn you to slow down despite having no other external sensing capability other than knowing where it is relative to the GPS network. so long as your database isn't wildly out of date it will be accurate enough. so the car only needs to keep an eye out for variances from this internal dataset like temporary construction markers and the like I personally think my wife is insane when she not only "corrects" me against posted signs, but loudly berates me for not knowing these stupid situational ad-hoc "rules". If I were driving by myself, I wouldn't give two shits about "Mr. Chawmsfawd" riding my rear end for driving the speed limit, but folks down there treat driving under unspoken rules with the same internalized self-worth they use for everything else (like their loving sports teams). I know it's popular to way to saw off Florida from the US, but Massachusetts is a close second for me.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:58
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Cheesus posted:Wow. It's worse in terms of speed definitely, though MA has its own issues. Usually the crazy speed limit poo poo is because of graft and related nonsense, as far as I know, where a bunch of different municipalities all put in to get route whatever to go through their territory so not only does it wind all over the place for no real reason, the speed limit changes every 50 feet. The rule is the same basically everywhere, though. Pay attention to how fast everyone else is driving and try not to be a dangerous piece of poo poo by going way faster or way slower.
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Jun 13, 2019 14:58
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Cheesus posted:If I were driving by myself, I wouldn't give two shits about "Mr. Chawmsfawd" riding my rear end for driving the speed limit, but folks down there treat driving under unspoken rules with the same internalized self-worth they use for everything else (like their loving sports teams). It's incredibly dangerous to be traveling well outside the normal flow of traffic, especially in high speed situations. No one sane is going to say that this is a good state of affairs, but the problem really isn't the guy tailgating you because you're going too slow. The problem is the line of cars approaching you from behind that are all going 20mph faster than you are. And since the average speed of traffic is probably pretty close to 20mph over, that means there are also plenty of jackasses who are going 25-30mph over too. Think of how dangerous an unexpected pedestrian or other stopped object is at parking lot speeds, and then scale that up to 20-25mph. As long as you aren't doing insane speeds, driving slow is way the gently caress scarier than driving fast. edit- I've been tailgated by a CT state trooper at 80mph. As in, the guy sat what couldn't have been more than a foot off of my bumper at 80mph. Not because he wanted to pull me over, but because he wanted to blow by me. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Jun 13, 2019 |
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Jun 13, 2019 15:09
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Cheesus posted:How do they resolve cases like "speed limit" vs "speed everyone actually drives at" and "even though this sign says X, actually do Y"? well, GPS devices instruct the driver to actually drive the car, but the GPS is aware with a high degree of accuracy when it is approaching a road segment with a lower posted limit (so long as the database isn't too outdated). so the question of "how does the vehicle know what the speed limit is" can be solved with already extant technology in 99% of cases since self driving cars would use this same technique of route calculating along a known road network to determine a route Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Jun 13, 2019 |
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Jun 13, 2019 15:17
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luxury handset posted:well, GPS devices instruct the driver to actually drive the car, but the GPS is aware with a high degree of accuracy when it is approaching a road segment with a lower posted limit (so long as the database isn't too outdated) Unless I'm misunderstanding you, you seem to be talking about two fundamentally different things. Cheesus is asking how self driving cars should deal with situations where the posted speed limit is 30mph, but every single human car is driving 50mph. He's not talking about the car understanding the posted speed limit.
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Jun 13, 2019 15:18
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