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Anyways, FO released their Passing Plus Minus rankings. Explanation:quote:Passing plus-minus is a stat we annually track to help provide context to completion percentage. Given the location of a quarterback's passes, it compares his completion percentage in each area to historical baselines. This stat does not consider passes listed as "Thrown Away," "Tipped at Line," or "Quarterback Hit in Motion" by Sports Info Solutions charting. How often a pass is completed based on the pass distance, the distance required for a first down, and whether the ball was thrown to the left, middle, or right side of the field. This is a counting stat, so more attempts are obviously a great thing for the purposes of what we're talking about here. quote:This season was an interesting result for Brees because he played up to the highs that he had in the past, but for once, he didn't combine that historic efficiency with an overwhelming number of attempts. This was the first time in Brees' entire career in New Orleans that he had fewer than 500 pass attempts. I'm sure Brees will take the tradeoff considering the 13-3 record and the whole "probably should have been in the Super Bowl if officiating buts were made of candy and nuts" thing. I think he'll be OK with these results.
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Jun 17, 2019 18:08
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Uh oh
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Jun 17, 2019 18:30
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Carr is good Gruden is good Inshallah
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Jun 17, 2019 18:40
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Josh McCown is officially retiring. https://twitter.com/JoshMcCown12/status/1140679317720055809
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Jun 17, 2019 19:02
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Diva Cupcake posted:Josh McCown is officially retiring. right after the season in which he got a passing plus minus -9.0 in just 98 attempts!!?? WOW
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Jun 17, 2019 19:11
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Josh McCown career earnings: $49,668,000
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Jun 17, 2019 19:15
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gently caress Fitz best journeyman QB there ever was Josh McCown
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Jun 17, 2019 19:27
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weird Asian candy posted:Josh McCown career earnings: $49,668,000 drat I thought that was all going to be in his first contract but it's all in the last 5 years.
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Jun 17, 2019 19:28
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Ches Neckbeard posted:gently caress Fitz best journeyman QB there ever was Josh McCown We’ll see
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Jun 17, 2019 19:33
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Ches Neckbeard posted:gently caress Fitz best journeyman QB there ever was Josh McCown How dare you
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Jun 17, 2019 19:43
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Play posted:this stat probably won't quiet down the 49ers fans who believe that Mullens deserves a real chance to start over Jimmy Garoppolo. Haha, who are these people? I've met some "trade Mullens for a first" nutjobs out here but nobody who wants to dump Jimmy already. In general I think football outsiders does some pretty goofy stats but this one shows that Tom Brady is a system quarterback like all smart people already knew, so I'm ok with it.
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Jun 17, 2019 19:46
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troofs posted:Haha, who are these people? I've met some "trade Mullens for a first" nutjobs out here but nobody who wants to dump Jimmy already. nobody loving says that lol. I absolutely love Nick Mullens, I think he's a champ and a great football player and I think he played extremely well in a tough situation last year. But despite his football intelligence and courage under fire you'd have to be insane to think he could or should replace garoppolo agreed though that the brady part is definitely the highlight of that article and proves him to be a relatively mediocre talent
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Jun 17, 2019 19:49
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Brady being a mediocre talent is just a linear progression of all the previous GOAT QBs like Montana before him, who was never as talented as Marino. Much like Brady who is not Aaron Rodgers' peer in term of talent. But much like Marino would never approximate Montana's resume, Rodgers will never sniff Brady's accomplishments
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Jun 17, 2019 20:11
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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:Brady being a mediocre talent is just a linear progression of all the previous GOAT QBs like Montana before him, who was never as talented as Marino. Much like Brady who is not Aaron Rodgers' peer in term of talent. But much like Marino would never approximate Montana's resume, Rodgers will never sniff Brady's accomplishments you mean bill's accomplishments 
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Jun 17, 2019 20:16
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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:Brady being a mediocre talent is just a linear progression of all the previous GOAT QBs like Montana before him, who was never as talented as Marino. Much like Brady who is not Aaron Rodgers' peer in term of talent. But much like Marino would never approximate Montana's resume, Rodgers will never sniff Brady's accomplishments poo poo, Drew Bledsoe was more talented than Brady, for all the good it did Bledsoe lol
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Jun 17, 2019 20:17
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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:Brady being a mediocre talent is just a linear progression of all the previous GOAT QBs like Montana before him, who was never as talented as Marino. Much like Brady who is not Aaron Rodgers' peer in term of talent. But much like Marino would never approximate Montana's resume, Rodgers will never sniff Brady's accomplishments Bill is the true GOAT, Brady just along for the ride! "Then again, Brady has never done particularly well by plus-minus anyway. We have data going back to 2006, and Brady barely cracks the top 10 in plus-minus"
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Jun 17, 2019 20:18
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So it looks like Caserio wants out of New England and actually wanted to go to the Texans. Now the Texans are planning on waiting out his contract and hiring him next year while the Pats either hold him to his contract or extract draft picks from Houston. https://twitter.com/BenVolin/status/1140693982873346051
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Jun 17, 2019 20:18
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Diva Cupcake posted:So it looks like Caserio wants out of New England and actually wanted to go to the Texans. Now the Texans are planning on waiting out his contract and hiring him next year while the Pats either hold him to his contract or extract draft picks from Houston. Makes sense. Here in New England he’s a mid level executive forever in Bills shadow where in Houston he’ll basically be President of all football operations. He’d probably end up firing O’Brien and choosing his own coach before long.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:26
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Bart Starr was never as good as Johnny U, but had 5 friggin rings. All the previous GOATs at QB are system QBs under great coaches. Lmao does anyone, anywhere, imagine Terry Bradshaw was a better QB than Roger Staubach?
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Jun 17, 2019 20:28
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No one ever considered Bradshaw the GOAT.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:29
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:No one ever considered Bradshaw the GOAT. Only Steelers fans.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:30
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The funniest is Broncos fans trying to argue Elway was the GOAT when he was routinely overshadowed by like 5 different dudes while he was still playing, never mind all-time. It's like people never stopped jerkin it to his draft hype, no matter how many Super Bowls he just ate poo poo in during his prime years or how mediocre his stats were. E: Are we even sure Elway was a better football player than... *draws name from a hat*... Boomer Esiason? At least he was 1st Team All-Pro, like, ever in his career. sean10mm fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Jun 17, 2019 |
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Jun 17, 2019 20:38
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weird Asian candy posted:Bill is the true GOAT, Brady just along for the ride! It's more that it's only a completion % vs expected stat. It's more a measure of receiver talent and to some extent, weather then QB. Brady's always had slightly lower completion % then other great QB's because he throws low and outside receivers to minimize interceptions and because he throws passes that should be intentional grounding in a better written rulebook when pressured. Not sure if those are counted as thrown-away for passes. Brees is a pretty fascinating outlier when it comes to accuracy though. He's always had good receiving talent and more dome games then anyone, but never anything truly outrageous, but is leaps and bounds more accurate then anyone else.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:42
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Brady wasn't lacking for attempts either, with 532. Generally more attempts equals a better plus/minus for some reason I don't really understand
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Jun 17, 2019 20:51
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Play posted:Brady wasn't lacking for attempts either, with 532. Generally more attempts equals a better plus/minus for some reason I don't really understand Until the last few years typically because it means you're losing, so the opposing team is playing off zone more and giving up easier completions. Now there's enough teams throwing enough that that might not be true anymore, no matter how much Seattle wants to reverse it.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:54
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Play posted:Brady wasn't lacking for attempts either, with 532. Generally more attempts equals a better plus/minus for some reason I don't really understand Brady and his intended receiver making different reads is a pretty common thing due to the complexity of that offense and leads to quite a few frustrating incompletions.
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Jun 17, 2019 20:56
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:No one ever considered Bradshaw the GOAT. Bradshaw sucked mostly, but he was a killer in the playoffs. Kinda like Brady imo
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Jun 17, 2019 20:58
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MY NIGGA D-LINK posted:Bradshaw sucked mostly, but he was a killer in the playoffs. Kinda like Brady imo I can't believe I'm gonna say this, but Bradshaw's regular season shittiness is kind of overstated. He played most of his career in an era where most QBs threw shitloads of picks. He was really only terrifyingly bad in his first 2 seasons where he threw a total of 46 interceptions to only 19 touchdowns lmao. He had Actually Good seasons compared to the league averages of the time in 1975, 1978 and 1979. That's 3 of their 4 Super Bowl seasons. The only Super Bowl season where he was just sorta there in the regular season was 1974, and in that Super Bowl run his passer rating blew up to 95 outta nowhere. That said he had way more average or worse statistical seasons than Brady even when adjusting for era.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:11
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Makes sense. Here in New England he’s a mid level executive forever in Bills shadow where in Houston he’ll basically be President of all football operations. He’d probably end up firing O’Brien and choosing his own coach before long. He'll try to hire McDaniels. Watson wont fight him either lol
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Jun 17, 2019 21:13
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Yeah, pre-1978 passing stats are a special kind of nightmare because the AFC post merger went from having a massive talent disparity to the defenses getting real dominant, while the offenses lost the talent gap, and just were ground into dust. Bradshaw however was a well above average QB for a few years before the '78 rules, then just started putting up good stats after those rules went in and teams could do things like pass the ball without WR's dying. The advanced passing section on PFR is pretty useful for era adjusted stuff where 100 is league average and anything over 120 is very good: Here's Bradshaw's: 
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Jun 17, 2019 21:19
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https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1140719745387388928
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Jun 17, 2019 21:40
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ESPN posted:In all, Belichick has gone 13-6 (.684) in 19 games without Brady at quarterback for the Patriots. To put that in context, no other team in the league besides Belichick's Patriots has posted a winning percentage higher than .684 since Belichick and Brady joined forces in 2000. JUST SAYING No but seriously, completion % is a really obtuse stat that doesn't really measure QB skill as much as it measures certain philosophical aspects of a passing offense and adding on a totally arbitrary point of comparison (even ignoring that "same area of the field" is both subjective and ridiculously reductive) doesn't really change the fact that the underlying methodology is flawed. Even using completion % as a measure of QB accuracy overall is actually pretty specious because it's so hugely affected by scheme and volume and personnel and other stuff. It's not a good stat.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:46
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troofs posted:JUST SAYING If you are going to rely on comp % as some be all end all, you also need to include air yards to put it into context. Someone like Brees last year had an insane comp % but it was all short passes as he was at the bottom in the league in the main air yards advanced metrics.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:48
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There’s medication for arthritis and controlling symptoms but maybe it depends on what kind he has and how much damage is done to his knee. Perhaps they can fix him and make him better...Robo-Gurley
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Jun 17, 2019 21:54
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Now I'm trying to dig up which sportswriter was pushing the Drew Brees was cooked trash over the 2nd half of last season narrative. Was it one of the Around the NFL guys?
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Jun 17, 2019 21:54
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Air yards aren't really better than any other yards. A short pass going for a long gain happens mostly because the QB placed the ball in the right place at the right time, so he still deserves credit for it.
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Jun 17, 2019 21:55
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sean10mm posted:Air yards aren't really better than any other yards. A short pass going for a long gain happens mostly because the QB placed the ball in the right place at the right time, so he still deserves credit for it. Sure they are. Shorter air yards yield higher comp %. Longer air yards yield lower comp % all things equal. Throw 1 : QB throws a screen pass to his RB for 4 yards and RB takes it for another 26 yards = 30 yard completion Throw 2 : QB throws a 28 yard pass to his WR who falls forward for another 2 yards = 30 yard completion Which is more difficult?
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Jun 17, 2019 21:58
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weird Asian candy posted:If you are going to rely on comp % as some be all end all, you also need to include air yards to put it into context. Someone like Brees last year had an insane comp % but it was all short passes as he was at the bottom in the league in the main air yards advanced metrics. Air yards is a good start but it still doesn't really properly contextualize how accurate a QB is. Even if you arbitrarily completely remove all short passing you still end up flattening the effect of scheme and WR ability on completion percentage. You need to add like 20 layers of context to every single throw to get a good idea of how well the QB threw the ball on every single throw. This isn't baseball where you can just assume the QB is trying to do more or less the same thing on every play and try to measure how well they do that thing.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:01
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It probably won't affect him this season because he's not going to get 300+ touches again
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Jun 17, 2019 22:01
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weird Asian candy posted:Sure they are. Shorter air yards yield higher comp %. Longer air yards yield lower comp % all things equal. A quick screen pass fitted into a narrow window after properly reading the defense and audibling into a good look is far more difficult than a 28 yard pass thrown up for Calvin Johnson or AJ Green to snag over the head of two second rate DBs. Your hypothetical lacks nuance.
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Jun 17, 2019 22:02
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