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I don’t doubt that he’ll stay until toppled, but Guaido’s vainglorious stupidity and the US’ meddling has pushed back the clock on that overthrow. Few things will discredit a country’s opposition than when THESE assholes are the putative opposition leader’s friends and patrons: https://twitter.com/thinkprogress/status/1139827552057380864 I don’t blame most Venezuelans for not turning out in support of the GOP’s man in Caracas.
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Jun 18, 2019 09:54
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Moridin920 posted:So, basically the assertion is now that Maduro is worse than Pinochet because he will do worse things than Pinochet has done by the time he is finished. Past performance of Abrams isn't indicative of future performance, though.
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Jun 18, 2019 10:30
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People did, the military didn’t. What does that say to you? Because to me it says that Maduro’s grasp to power isn’t shaky despite being unpopular. It’s not a good combination.
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Jun 18, 2019 12:05
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Majorian posted:There’s not much evil that Maduro has done that Pinochet, Videla, or Rios-Montt didn’t also do on top of the tens of thousands of murders and tortures they systematically carried out. People starved in Chile, Argentina, and Guatemala. Those countries had their own refugee crises. There’s really no comparison to be made; saying that Maduro is worse than any of these monsters just doesn’t track. I feel concerned that you aren't responding to what I'm actually willing to grant in comparing Pinochet to Maduro, still -- which means I can probably observe such misunderstanding throughout the rest of the discussion. Quantifying direct evil acts or assessing inherent intent of either leader against each other is fine to do on its own, but doesn't relate to what I can concede is a fair (and concerning) reality of Maduro: by all accounts, his period of leadership will likely have done more lasting damage to his country than Pinochet did to his own. You can have a separate discussion about if Pinochet was more evil, had worse intent, was directly involved in more dramatically barbaric and horrendous abuses of power. I think all of these things are true. There's no great desire to rehabilitate Pinochet's image by saying "well, at least he didn't gently caress up his own country as hard as Maduro and the PSUV hosed up Venezuela" -- oh, I'm sure he made the trains run on time, too. No, the issue is that regardless of intent and of current scale of direct authoritarian abuses by the PSUV, it must be said that what Maduro's leadership is actively doing right now is wrecking the country with breathtaking permanence for the current living generations of Venezuelans, in so doing creating more of a crisis than Pinochet ultimately represented. This is not great. The time of recovery represents decades of hardship and marginalization and lost opportunity, true suffering and the loss of generations to impoverishment and the aftereffects of the collapse of functioning systems. Venezuela has this situation oncoming in a way I already think is functionally irreversible, and even if it does eventually lead to some kind of meaningful reform, there's no best case scenario where the next couple of decades at minimum (realistically honestly more than that) avoid being an age of collapse and hardship. Combine it with the lovely timing with regards to climate change and the threat to the country may be existential.
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Jun 18, 2019 13:59
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Kavros posted:All of what you are saying here can be true and not in any way contradict it being fair to measure Maduro's harm as greater in sum than Pinochet's total consequential suffering. If this is the standard we're going for, why are you backing a us puppet that isn't going to fix any of Venezuela's problems inherent to capitalist market and could even make it worse
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Jun 18, 2019 14:16
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Truga posted:If this is the standard we're going for, why are you backing a us puppet that isn't going to fix any of Venezuela's problems inherent to capitalist market and could even make it worse Where'd he say he was "backing a us puppet"?
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Jun 18, 2019 14:45
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The bit where he supports us intervention and Guaido. fake edit: I'm bad at phoneposting I thought I was replying to fnox, oops. Either way, with that standard, we need to overthrow almost every capitaist govt, because they're letting the poor get poorer and thus literally killing them by taking away their health care/food/etc.
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Jun 18, 2019 15:04
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Truga posted:If this is the standard we're going for, why are you backing a us puppet that isn't going to fix any of Venezuela's problems inherent to capitalist market and could even make it worse Well, I certainly hope that's not what people think my position is. I'm fairly certain Guaido would be no solution at all, as would any opposition that so clearly fails a test of not being an apparatus of Bolton-esque U.S. intervention attempts. Someone could probably make the argument that he would be less bad than Maduro (probably?? maybe??) but that would just because he would... at best trade Maduro's incompetence for something you don't want done more competently in general. It would also fundamentally finalize the end destination of Venezuela's social systems, ensuring they get carved up by neoliberal predation like they've wanted to get to for so many years. Kafka to Rand isn't a great step up, just a more "orderly" process of disintegration.
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Jun 18, 2019 15:24
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I wonder how many people have been killed by the collapse of the Venezuelan healthcare sector since 2012 Im sure it’s many thousands, although it’s not entirely fair to blame Maduro for all of them. He is to blame for a lot of them however
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Jun 18, 2019 15:36
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Every single death that isn't of old age is a failure of government policy in some way when you think about it.
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Jun 18, 2019 15:45
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Truga posted:The bit where he supports us intervention and Guaido. fake edit: I'm bad at phoneposting I thought I was replying to fnox, oops. There has never been something worse for the poor in Venezuela than Maduro. I am not just saying this, numbers back this up, the current crisis far exceeds the worst moments of Venezuela under neoliberal rule. The stuff that triggered the Bolivarian revolution now seems like a joke compared to the Venezuela of today. It’s one of the most unequal countries in the world, with the elite PSUV and military officials holding literally all the money, and everyone else getting jack poo poo. That Andrade guy posted a few pages back? He’s a small fry compared to what everyone else has embezzled, and he stole a billion dollars.
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Jun 18, 2019 15:51
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Fascinating WSJ story on the unusual movement of Venezuelan gold through Africa and the Middle East. https://twitter.com/gksteinhauser/status/1140993447702290432?s=19 quote:ENTEBBE, Uganda—The government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is selling off his country’s gold reserves. Some of it has passed through a secretive operation in East Africa, a gambit that evades U.S. sanctions. The quote from the Venezuelan lawmaker about Maduro scraping the bottom of the barrel to keep the government operating was interesting, so I looked it up. According to the World Gold Council, Venezuela had about 210 tons of gold reserves in 2017. Since, according to this article, the opposition has complained about the government selling 70 tons in the last two years, at this rate, Venezuela will run out of gold reserves in a few years. Of course, that assumes the price of gold remains constant and Venezuela can keep finding places to melt down its bars. And buyers who will buy mysterious gold, even at a steep discount.
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Jun 18, 2019 16:59
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fnox posted:There has never been something worse for the poor in Venezuela than Maduro. I am not just saying this, numbers back this up, the current crisis far exceeds the worst moments of Venezuela under neoliberal rule. The stuff that triggered the Bolivarian revolution now seems like a joke compared to the Venezuela of today. It’s one of the most unequal countries in the world, with the elite PSUV and military officials holding literally all the money, and everyone else getting jack poo poo. Yeah but a neoliberal government won't end poverty though.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:01
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Truga posted:Every single death that isn't of old age is a failure of government policy in some way when you think about it. We're only supposed to think about that in the context of American health care debates. Thinking about it when looking at the history and present of Marxist regimes is forbidden, for some reason.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:01
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fnox posted:There has never been something worse for the poor in Venezuela than Maduro. I am not just saying this, numbers back this up, the current crisis far exceeds the worst moments of Venezuela under neoliberal rule. The stuff that triggered the Bolivarian revolution now seems like a joke compared to the Venezuela of today. It’s one of the most unequal countries in the world, with the elite PSUV and military officials holding literally all the money, and everyone else getting jack poo poo. Yes, I know that poo poo I've been reading the thread for a couple years now. The situation is hosed. Nobody's disputing that. The problem with "literally anything else" attitude is, this time it turned out "anything else" is a shill backed by IMF, bolso and trump admin. "The situation has to get worse before it gets better" isn't a given, not even when poo poo is as bad as it is right now. I know I'm being repetetive but what's needed isn't IMF loansharks making everyone even poorer than today, it's a people's movement. Guaido and his masters would lead venezuela's already poo poo situation through what greece went through after '08, and greece went from "pretty ok" to "bad" for many, venezuela would start at hosed descend to Turbofucked in short order, which will then either escalate to civil war or see the rest of the population flee, with the only people profiting being either existing or new oil barons. M. Discordia posted:We're only supposed to think about that in the context of American health care debates. Thinking about it when looking at the history and present of Marxist regimes is forbidden, for some reason.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:02
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M. Discordia posted:We're only supposed to think about that in the context of American health care debates. Thinking about it when looking at the history and present of Marxist regimes is forbidden, for some reason. Nobody with a lick of sense or knowledge thinks Maduro is running a Marxist regime on any real level.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:20
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Truga posted:Yes, I know that poo poo I've been reading the thread for a couple years now. The situation is hosed. Nobody's disputing that. We’re talking about a transition from a military dictatorship, one that ignores any notion of maintaining a working economy, to a flawed democracy. I’m sorry, but I fail to see how that would be worse. Greece is not in a humanitarian crisis, when I say that anything would be better, I mean any civil democracy would be better because if it sucks, it can be removed, and then we can try again. Venezuela is going to have to undertake decades of hardship to recover from where it has been lead to. Unfortunately, even with a government that has the best of intentions, without a miraculous amount of aid, you’re going to have to cut spending to get out of the massive fiscal deficit Maduro is in. This means cutting the oil subsidy, this means removing fixed price controls, this means a number of things that will cause short term pain but that will be necessary to reverse the damage. punk rebel ecks posted:Yeah but a neoliberal government won't end poverty though. End? Hell no it won’t. But reestablishing democratic rule is step one, so if it’s a civilian government it’s already better. If this dictatorship and other dictatorships in Latin America have shown is that the poor don’t just suffer under military rule, they get murdered by the thousands. fnox fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 17:24
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Nobody with a lick of sense or knowledge thinks Maduro is running a Marxist regime on any real level. it turns out Maduro is the Utility Monster spoken of in philosophical legend, and the country's being run on the principle of "from each according to his ability to make empanadas, to each according to his desire to consume them"
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Jun 18, 2019 17:25
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fnox posted:We’re talking about a transition from a military dictatorship, one that ignores any notion of maintaining a working economy, to a flawed democracy. I’m sorry, but I fail to see how that would be worse. Greece is not in a humanitarian crisis, when I say that anything would be better, I mean any civil democracy would be better because if it sucks, it can be removed, and then we can try again. for reference on what those number of things include, look up the case of Hugo Spadafora. nice guy, you'd like him, fnox. fought for the freedom of his people from oppression while remaining very worried about communist infiltration of Latin American governments. he was a fearless opponent of corruption wherever it reared its head. so when he learned that the Noriega government was involved in a massive drugrunning operation, he spoke out. and, well. a number of things that caused short term pain, but were necessary to reverse the damage happened. they never found his head. you will be happy to know that Abrams pushed as hard as possible to make sure that nobody involved suffered any consequences afterwards. after all. Noriega was doing very important things. to preserve freedom.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:40
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fnox posted:End? Hell no it won’t. But reestablishing democratic rule is step one, so if it’s a civilian government it’s already better. If this dictatorship and other dictatorships in Latin America have shown is that the poor don’t just suffer under military rule, they get murdered by the thousands. I was being factious. The reality is that Venezuela would be much better off even under a neoliberal government run by Macri.
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Jun 18, 2019 17:49
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fnox posted:End? Hell no it won’t. But reestablishing democratic rule is step one, so if it’s a civilian government it’s already better. If this dictatorship and other dictatorships in Latin America have shown is that the poor don’t just suffer under military rule, they get murdered by the thousands. In what world do you think the US is going to allow Venezuela to have a democratic government?
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Jun 18, 2019 18:18
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Venezuela would likely also be better off, regardless of who rules, without US sanctions and interference (or at least less of them), and I think that just may be a possibility if Bernie gets elected, so that could be something to look forward to. Don't count on the right wing opposition toppling Maduro anytime soon after Guaido monumentally loving everything up.
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Jun 18, 2019 18:32
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punk rebel ecks posted:I was being factious. Granted, how much of it is actually the change in leadership or that the US would lift sanctions and the IMF would pump in new funding to stabilize the new government.
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Jun 18, 2019 18:33
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Ardennes posted:Granted, how much of it is actually the change in leadership or that the US would lift sanctions and the IMF would pump in new funding to stabilize the new government. More of the former. But all of the above would help.
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Jun 18, 2019 18:36
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fnox posted:We’re talking about a transition from a military dictatorship, one that ignores any notion of maintaining a working economy, to a flawed democracy. I’m sorry, but I fail to see how that would be worse. Greece is not in a humanitarian crisis, when I say that anything would be better, I mean any civil democracy would be better because if it sucks, it can be removed, and then we can try again. One thing the US could do is use its power in international markets to lean on Venezuela's creditors to write down their debts. Venezuela hasn't spent enough money on Venezuela for a while and it needs to start. "Could do" in the sense of "is capable", not "actually will", of course. The rich might not get all the money that way.
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Jun 18, 2019 18:57
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punk rebel ecks posted:More of the former. But all of the above would help. I would say more of the later almost certainly at this juncture. Looking at the economic picture of Venezuela, the core issue is a lack of state revenue and while Maduro deserves his share blame for what happened if anything I would say the US now has far more agency especially since 2017. Admittedly, I think the big issue was Chavez running through currency reserves from 2009 to 2012 and after that point, Venezuela was in an increasingly vulnerable state by that burden was greatly exacerbated by US sanctions from mid-2017. I do think if the US sanctions did easy sanctions and may even allowed Venezuela emergency loans for humanitarian spending with oversight, the situation would probably improve significantly.
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Jun 18, 2019 19:05
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Ardennes posted:I would say more of the later almost certainly at this juncture. Looking at the economic picture of Venezuela, the core issue is a lack of state revenue and while Maduro deserves his share blame for what happened if anything I would say the US now has far more agency especially since 2017. Admittedly, I think the big issue was Chavez running through currency reserves from 2009 to 2012 and after that point, Venezuela was in an increasingly vulnerable state by that burden was greatly exacerbated by US sanctions from mid-2017. So you are arguing that Venezuela's situation is similar to Greece in that it has found itself in an economic crisis largely due to their own doing but the powers that be won't let them recover; but instead of the EU clamping down on them for recovery it is the IMF and the US? punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 19:11
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Glazius posted:One thing the US could do is use its power in international markets to lean on Venezuela's creditors to write down their debts. Venezuela hasn't spent enough money on Venezuela for a while and it needs to start. It'd help. Venezuela pays some of the highest interest rates in the world for its debt. Unfortunately the biggest owner of Venezuelan debt is China, with around 62 billion owed. Even if we get a write off, Venezuela is gonna need a gigantic bailout to restart its economy. Ardennes posted:Granted, how much of it is actually the change in leadership or that the US would lift sanctions and the IMF would pump in new funding to stabilize the new government. All of it? You could literally not do anything and do less harm than Maduro's actively malicious measures. There's something so devious about creating a hyper-inflationary spiral while severely limiting access to hard currency, I think even the most vampiric neoliberal would have struggle to come up with it. Maduro, of course seeking to go above and beyond, also created a massive fiscal deficit and bankrupted the entire production chain of basically everything in the country through arbitrary price controls. This is 100% Maduro's policy, it has nothing to do with America. It's fundamentally identical to your worst neoliberal nightmares. Maduro clamouring on national broadcasting that he's increasing the minimum wage to a dollar a day? We got that, except said wage would depreciate by more than half before the end of the month. You know the completely abysmal figures that the Central Bank of Venezuela released recently, admitting that the inflation rate between 2016 and April 2019 was 53,798,500%? That actually beats the IMF prediction. I think even the IMF would have second thoughts about lending any money to Venezuela. WhiskeyWhiskers posted:In what world do you think the US is going to allow Venezuela to have a democratic government? Is Guaido a military dictator now? They're clearly not pushing for anything other than a democratic government, be it as flawed as it may be. fnox fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 19:24
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Ardennes posted:I would say more of the later almost certainly at this juncture. Looking at the economic picture of Venezuela, the core issue is a lack of state revenue and while Maduro deserves his share blame for what happened if anything I would say the US now has far more agency especially since 2017. Admittedly, I think the big issue was Chavez running through currency reserves from 2009 to 2012 and after that point, Venezuela was in an increasingly vulnerable state by that burden was greatly exacerbated by US sanctions from mid-2017. Under the current government, why would anyone have reason to believe that they wouldn't just continue their disastrous policies for another few years, supposing their primary debt holders gave them a deferral or write-down? The PSUV had a long time to get to where it is today and it shows no signs of improving at all. I think any sane agency is going to prefer to deal with Angola or Zimbabwe; at least there the nominal change in leadership means there's a possibility for improvement, whereas there is absolutely zero sign in Venezuela that the PSUV would not just hold the exact same unaltered course for a few years longer given a lifeline. Like poo poo, even replacing Maduro with someone like Tarek El-Aissami might be an improvement. Like he might be the head of a drug cartel, but if he is, at least that means he knows how to run a stable profitable business. Maduro seems to not know poo poo about anything. Delcy Rodriguez and Diosdado are the only two possibilities within the PSUV I could think of that might be worse than Maduro.
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Jun 18, 2019 19:39
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fnox posted:All of it? You could literally not do anything and do less harm than Maduro's actively malicious measures. There's something so devious about creating a hyper-inflationary spiral while severely limiting access to hard currency, I think even the most vampiric neoliberal would have struggle to come up with it. Maduro, of course seeking to go above and beyond, also created a massive fiscal deficit and bankrupted the entire production chain of basically everything in the country through arbitrary price controls. Yes, yes, Maduro caused the crisis not the sanctions, as you like to repeat whenever sanctions talk comes up. But even if that's true the sanctions are definitely making it impossible for any real recovery to occur. You described the effect of the sanctions yourself as something like "preventing Maduro from digging himself out of the hole he's dug", which to me seems like an attempt to spin keeping people in certain deprivation as a positive. Can you acknowledge that it would be good for Venezuela if the sanctions were lifted? At least some of them if not all?
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Jun 18, 2019 20:02
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Ardennes posted:Also, in the case of austerity Venezuela, it is clear from published data, the state simply lacks any resources to run services at this point and in honesty has been running on fumes since around 2012 or so although it has gotten worse in the last 2 years. Isn't quite the same as the Eurozone where the resources were there in abundance (not just billions but hundreds of billions) but austerity was used as an "instructive lesson" against the population. Yes it's a case where claims that replacing the governing parties is bad because "then austerity will happen" just doesn't make sense. The money's already gone and been gone AND they've reduced the nominal social welfare to practically nothing on top of that. It's honestly baffling just how all of this happened too, like with the nationalization of random businesses seeming to never return any useful economic benefits due to the sheer level of mismanagement. It's like some sort of managerial Lysenkoism struck the process and just had the new government managers intentionally run poo poo into the ground. There was planet of nationalization of reasonably large chunks of core domestic industries, but it all ended up just replaced with Venezuela importing more foreign goods instead. It also makes you wonder why, if they were going to do all THAT nationalization, they weren't willing to at least go big and take on whole industries as-is?
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Jun 18, 2019 20:29
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punk rebel ecks posted:So you are arguing that Venezuela's situation is similar to Greece in that it has found itself in an economic crisis largely due to their own doing but the powers that be won't let them recover; but instead of the EU clamping down on them for recovery it is the IMF and the US? I would say after 2017, more or less, yes. It would still be bad but the current sanctions are pushing the country to the brink. I don't know if the PSUV would ever accept IMF loans, but a Western credit facility could be setup. If anything the carrot approach would have least given a West some leeway. fnox posted:All of it? You could literally not do anything and do less harm than Maduro's actively malicious measures. There's something so devious about creating a hyper-inflationary spiral while severely limiting access to hard currency, I think even the most vampiric neoliberal would have struggle to come up with it. Maduro, of course seeking to go above and beyond, also created a massive fiscal deficit and bankrupted the entire production chain of basically everything in the country through arbitrary price controls. I would say that just doesn't meet reality, sanctions are very clearly having an effect. I don't think to punish the population in order to punish Maduro/PSUV is acceptable, especially since the last coup/revolution attempt really didn't go anywhere. Also, minimum wages and other controls in a country with hyperinflation are largely meaningless because no government can usually catch up to them in time. Basically, the Bolivar and everything tied to it is finished as a currency and the government doesn't have the resources left to support a new one. The effect will be dollarization. Saladman posted:Under the current government, why would anyone have reason to believe that they wouldn't just continue their disastrous policies for another few years, supposing their primary debt holders gave them a deferral or write-down? The PSUV had a long time to get to where it is today and it shows no signs of improving at all. The big issue was supporting the Bolivar too strongly in 2009-2012 and eating up the country's reserves and for the most far the inflation has been the result of declining production and a lack of hard currency. I wouldn't say the PSUV is competent, but releasing the sanctions would at least allow the humanitarian situation to stabilize. At this point, it is either stabilizing the situation or driving the country into complete anarchy. fishmech posted:Yes it's a case where claims that replacing the governing parties is bad because "then austerity will happen" just doesn't make sense. The money's already gone and been gone AND they've reduced the nominal social welfare to practically nothing on top of that. It's honestly baffling just how all of this happened too, like with the nationalization of random businesses seeming to never return any useful economic benefits due to the sheer level of mismanagement. It's like some sort of managerial Lysenkoism struck the process and just had the new government managers intentionally run poo poo into the ground. There was planet of nationalization of reasonably large chunks of core domestic industries, but it all ended up just replaced with Venezuela importing more foreign goods instead. I think it is a combination of them not knowing what they were doing and the fact the government was basically already broke at that point and so really couldn't invest in those industries. I think it was stupid and made the situation worse, but it wasn't causing the central dysfunction in the country which was always oil. Ending the sanctions wouldn't fix the situation but give the population breathing room. Basically, the government hoped to show it was doing something but it was political theatre. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 21:26
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I was under the impression that national debt doesn't matter.
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Jun 18, 2019 21:34
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It doesn't if you print your own currency backed by nothing but the Bolivar is pegged to the USD. Fiat vs representative currency. Which is also kind of stupid for an ostensibly socialist country to do if you ask me but hey. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 21:59
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Moridin920 posted:It doesn't if you print your own currency backed by nothing but the Bolivar is pegged to the USD. Fiat vs representative currency. It's not an issue of the Bolivar being pegged to the USD; the issue is that no one would ever accept a major loan issued in bolivars. Even at the much smaller consumer-level scope of finance, major transactions (e.g. houses) have been done in US dollars for years. Most countries do not have the luxury of issuing debt in their national currency, meaning they can't print more money to cover their debt, like the US theoretically could (albeit at a significant penalty -- although not nearly as bad as defaulting). Even when countries do issue debt in their national currency, locally-denominated loans often have astronomical interest rates (e.g. Turkey) to cover the odds of the currency flopping.
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Jun 18, 2019 22:20
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Moridin920 posted:It doesn't if you print your own currency backed by nothing but the Bolivar is pegged to the USD. Fiat vs representative currency. You'd think for Chavisno focusing so much on Venezuela being independent from the United States, that they would have focused on the currency. Saladman posted:It's not an issue of the Bolivar being pegged to the USD; the issue is that no one would ever accept a major loan issued in bolivars. Even at the much smaller consumer-level scope of finance, major transactions (e.g. houses) have been done in US dollars for years. Most countries do not have the luxury of issuing debt in their national currency, meaning they can't print more money to cover their debt, like the US theoretically could (albeit at a significant penalty -- although not nearly as bad as defaulting). Turkey has one of the lowest national debts out there.
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Jun 18, 2019 22:28
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Venezuela has its own special set of problems I'm talking more like national debt doesn't really matter if you have a fiat currency but if you are like Greece and you use Euros and owe your sovereign debts in Euros then it does matter. e: A lot of countries issue debt in their own currency. Most sovereign debt is issued like that, actually, it's just that more unstable countries have to go through the World Bank or similar. Moridin920 fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 22:28
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Ardennes posted:I would say that just doesn't meet reality, sanctions are very clearly having an effect. I don't think to punish the population in order to punish Maduro/PSUV is acceptable, especially since the last coup/revolution attempt really didn't go anywhere. That's not the case for the average Venezuelan citizen. The average Venezuelan citizen earns their wages in Bolivares, and must switch them to dollars, which Maduro has made largely illegal, so they must commit to black market trading, which doesn't happen fast enough to avoid depreciation. I know this because I experienced it. Minimum wages and price controls were agonizing and largely the cause of scarcity. Please explain to me how these sanctions caused hyperinflation. I fail to see the connection between the biggest thing that's hurting the Venezuelan economy and the sancitons. Zidrooner posted:Yes, yes, Maduro caused the crisis not the sanctions, as you like to repeat whenever sanctions talk comes up. But even if that's true the sanctions are definitely making it impossible for any real recovery to occur. You described the effect of the sanctions yourself as something like "preventing Maduro from digging himself out of the hole he's dug", which to me seems like an attempt to spin keeping people in certain deprivation as a positive. Can you acknowledge that it would be good for Venezuela if the sanctions were lifted? At least some of them if not all? No, it prevents Maduro from using state assets as loan collaterals now that nobody trusts him with money. Basically, the sanctions prevent him from taking on onerous debt, by blocking all of his access to US financial services. That which I'm talking about is the broadest effect of the sanctions, the sanctions to individuals are pretty inarguably only affecting Maduro's cronies. Even if the sanctions were removed, who's gonna trust Maduro with a loan? Think of this, what are they gonna ask for as a collateral, what's the interest gonna be like? Will that be better for the Venezuelan people? Give Maduro a quick lifeline in exchange of him further depriving the country's future? The crisis is not gonna be over after the loan because he's gonna still be in charge and all of his policies are still gonna be in place. The deprivation of food and medicine that is going on right now is not the effect of sanctions, it has nothing to do with the US, it has 100% to do with how things work in Venezuela. The stuff that's missing is all regulated products, medicine are regulated products, they're handled by the state. You can find actual imported cans of SPAM in the country, sold an an exorbitant price of course, but you can't find eggs or milk no matter how much you're willing to pay for them. The system Maduro devised is broken, deeply broken, and it was broken before the sanctions, which is why the crisis began before the sanctions. The sanctions should only be removed if Maduro either steps down, or agrees to take measures to fix the poo poo he's broken. Or what, you think he's gonna get a loan to buy food for everyone? It's not gonna trickle down, you know, there's a reason why a country sitting on a golden goose is broke. fnox fucked around with this message at 23:31 on Jun 18, 2019 |
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Jun 18, 2019 23:29
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How much is Venezuela's current economic state is due to Chavez's legacy collapsing on itself and how much of it is Maduro failing at handling a current crisis. In other words, would Venezuela be notably better off if Chavez was still alive and president?
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Jun 18, 2019 23:45
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punk rebel ecks posted:How much is Venezuela's current economic state is due to Chavez's legacy collapsing on itself and how much of it is Maduro failing at handling a current crisis. given the choice between those two, it's mostly on Chavez. the core problem is and remains the problem that put the PSUV in power in the first place: a third-world country with massive resource deposits faces TREMENDOUS international pressure to become a one-export economy, and when the price of that one export dips, the country promptly explodes. Chavez made some efforts to diversify the economy to avoid this inevitability. they did not work. also he pegged the currency to the dollar, which was extremely loving stupid. Maduro's demonstrated the superiority of socialism to capitalism in one extremely grim way, though; it took Chavez three years to knock over his predecessors, and Maduro's still got an intact government as we enter year four.
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Jun 19, 2019 00:45
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