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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher |
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18 | 1.46% |
| Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer |
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665 | 54.11% |
| Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker |
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319 | 25.96% |
| Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord |
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26 | 2.12% |
| Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Julian Castro, the Twin |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath |
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17 | 1.38% |
| Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino |
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3 | 0.24% |
| Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist |
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8 | 0.65% |
| Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen |
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86 | 7.00% |
| Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater |
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23 | 1.87% |
| Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool |
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32 | 2.60% |
| Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy |
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2 | 0.16% |
| Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast |
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1 | 0.08% |
| Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated |
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4 | 0.33% |
| Tim Ryan, the Dope Face |
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3 | 0.24% |
| John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran |
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7 | 0.57% |
| Total: | 1229 votes | ||
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Typo posted:what do you think I don't know, that's why I'm asking you. You're the one making the argument.
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Jun 30, 2019 23:53
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| # ? May 25, 2024 07:41 |
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I guess it's useful to reaffirm the notion that most voters don't actually know much about candidates and their politics at all, and that dumb factors like name recognition matter far more than whether two politicians like, say, Biden and Sanders are about as far apart from each other as any of these candidates could be. It's also depressing.
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Jun 30, 2019 23:53
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Craptacular! posted:Keep in mind most people have not read long articles on strategic defense and the options in North Korea. If they did, they’ll see every retaliation has enormous cost to either us or the South Koreans and maybe Japan, and the most likely outcome is that we’re going to have to accept that the Kim dynasty can point nuclear warheads at the lower 48 and learn to live under that threat. Long detailed infopieces about the various options usually end with, “well maybe we should being back 1950s style nuclear drills to classrooms again.” The American people don't worry about England or France having nuclear missiles that can reach the "untouchable mainland". Long detailed infopieces about the options tend to exclude one major option: peace and normalization of relations with North Korea, based on a genuine desire for reducing hostilities rather than a stupid transactional relationship where even the most minor gesture needs to be paid for by a foreign policy concession.
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Jul 1, 2019 00:00
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DeadlyMuffin posted:This tweet seems pretty innocuous to me. That's because you're a neoliberal.
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Jul 1, 2019 00:08
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Judakel posted:That's because you're a neoliberal. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 1, 2019 00:09
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LinYutang posted:Bernie was doing rallies to build his organization and brand immediately following the 2016 election to today. This early? Hahaha.
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Jul 1, 2019 00:11
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I feel like there's two different ways of measuring a candidate's support and they keep getting conflated. The first is what % of that candidate's supporters are a given demographic, and the second is what the preferred candidate of that demographic is as a whole. To use an extreme example, if I were running and I had exactly five supporters and all of them were POC, you could credibly say "Z. Autobahn does exceptionally well with POC voters" but it also isn't really true or meaningful because I'm not the preferred candidate of the vast majority of POC voters. It's definitely true that Bernie supporters are diverse, but it's also true that he's not the preferred candidate of black voters (which is primarily a factor of age rather than race). Majorian posted:Ah, I see - so you're using a poll where Biden soaks up a large amount of black voter support, under the assumption that he's going to keep black voters' support for the foreseeable future. I mean... he's using polls that show... what the polls are showing... as opposed to polls that show what... theoretically could happen? I don't understand this argument. Polls show us where support currently is. Obviously things could change in any of a million ways, but... that's not what polls are?
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Jul 1, 2019 00:24
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https://twitter.com/MikeGravel/status/1145467048186777603
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Jul 1, 2019 00:31
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Z. Autobahn posted:
They don't exactly support his argument that Sanders isn't doing well with POCs.
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Jul 1, 2019 00:34
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Z. Autobahn posted:
Those polls don't indicate what he is implying they do. Maybe he even knows that since he refuses to state outright what he thinks those polls indicate
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Jul 1, 2019 00:36
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I don’t have any confusing triangular graphs to back me up but my understanding is that Bernie “isn’t doing well” with black voters simply because Biden is and you can’t (in the paradigm of a poll) support two candidates at once. If/when Biden crashes Bernie should be picking up a lot of black voters, because they actually “like” him - in a fav/unfav sense - more than white voters.
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Jul 1, 2019 00:42
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Mellow Seas posted:I don’t have any confusing triangular graphs to back me up but my understanding is that Bernie “isn’t doing well” with black voters simply because Biden is and you can’t (in the paradigm of a poll) support two candidates at once. If/when Biden crashes Bernie should be picking up a lot of black voters, because they actually “like” him - in a fav/unfav sense - more than white voters. This is essentially correct, yes. His favorables are perfectly fine among the demo, but it's been a thing going back to 2016 to frame "not the first choice of" as "completely despises."
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Jul 1, 2019 00:47
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Mellow Seas posted:I don’t have any confusing triangular graphs to back me up but my understanding is that Bernie “isn’t doing well” with black voters simply because Biden is and you can’t (in the paradigm of a poll) support two candidates at once. If/when Biden crashes Bernie should be picking up a lot of black voters, because they actually “like” him - in a fav/unfav sense - more than white voters. Right, as has been the case for the months, there's a widespread disagreement on what "doing well with a group" means. Does it mean % of your supporters that are that group? Does it mean your fav/unfav with that group? Or does it mean how you rank as a preferred candidate with that group? Bernie has always done very well in metrics 1 and 2 with black voters, less so with metric 3. The problem is, when it comes to a primary, metric 3 is what actually matters. That said, I don't really agree with the scenario you're describing because it's operating like Biden is crashing in a vacuum. That seemed possible earlier on, but I think now it's clear that if Biden falls, it's because of a targeted erosion of his support by other candidates. Bernie could do it, but he'd have to step up his game and change his campaigning style to be much more personal and directly aggressive; right now, Harris is the one playing that role and reaping the (possibly short-term) benefits. Stuff like this poses the biggest threat to Biden *and* Bernie: https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1145469206630227968 Despite all the talk of 'rigging', the establishment Dems have been (by and large) playing it cautious so far, probably waiting to see how it shakes out. But a full-scale establishment push for Harris both murders Biden but also will ensure that a LOT of his support moves to her. Oh Snapple! posted:This is essentially correct, yes. His favorables are perfectly fine among the demo, but it's been a thing going back to 2016 to frame "not the first choice of" as "completely despises." Yeah, this is a case where BOTH SIDES LOL are wrong in their framing. Donut Twitter is wrong to frame Bernie's pref rankings as a sign that "black voters hate him", but Bernie supporters are also wrong to frame his fav/supporter distribution as proof that there's no problem. Z. Autobahn fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Jul 1, 2019 |
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Jul 1, 2019 00:50
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Z. Autobahn posted:
Could we not refer to Harris as 'stuff'?
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Jul 1, 2019 00:54
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Z. Autobahn posted:Right, as has been the case for the months, there's a widespread disagreement on what "doing well with a group" means. Does it mean % of your supporters that are that group? Does it mean your fav/unfav with that group? Or does it mean how you rank as a preferred candidate with that group? Bernie has always done very well in metrics 1 and 2 with black voters, less so with metric 3. The problem is, when it comes to a primary, metric 3 is what actually matters. As Oh Snapple! pointed out, we were talking about POC voters in general, not exclusively black voters. Typo's caricature of POC voters deliberately excludes Latinx voters (and really all POCs besides black voters).
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Jul 1, 2019 00:56
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Oh Snapple! posted:This is essentially correct, yes. His favorables are perfectly fine among the demo, but it's been a thing going back to 2016 to frame "not the first choice of" as "completely despises." is there any D currently running that have high negatives among african-american voters?
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Jul 1, 2019 01:13
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Typo fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Jul 15, 2019 |
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Jul 1, 2019 01:15
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Majorian posted:They don't exactly support his argument that Sanders isn't doing well with POCs. Look, all my white upper class twitter friends with donut emojis for names say that Bernie is Bad On Race like 5 times a day and have done so since 2015 so it has to be true!
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Jul 1, 2019 01:17
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https://twitter.com/NPR/status/1145482206833459200 And yes, the replies are 
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Jul 1, 2019 01:41
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1145492550746288131
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Jul 1, 2019 01:42
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his mustache still feels weird
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Jul 1, 2019 02:27
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GreyjoyBastard posted:his mustache still feels weird Right? I’m still not convinced he’s not secretly Richard Dreyfuss.
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Jul 1, 2019 02:39
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When exactly did yall get the opportunity to feel his moustache?
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Jul 1, 2019 02:45
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GreyjoyBastard posted:his mustache still feels weird Bizzaro Bolton
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Jul 1, 2019 02:46
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Was it a goon who said that the thing with Bolton's moustache is that it's simultaneously quite bushy, but also you feel like you could easily count every individual hair? I think about that all the time
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Jul 1, 2019 03:02
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Typo posted:Bernie's actual problem this cycle btw is more with older voters in general rather than race/gender, something like <30% of 65+ say they would even -consider- voting for him and he's at 7% with them in "who would you vote for". The average age of Dem primary voter in 2016 is something between 47-52. This and income are basically the only relevant demographic stats when discussing Sanders. Any increased/decreased likelihood along vectors like race or gender after accounting for age are likely pretty insignificant. Mellow Seas posted:I don’t have any confusing triangular graphs to back me up but my understanding is that Bernie “isn’t doing well” with black voters simply because Biden is and you can’t (in the paradigm of a poll) support two candidates at once. If/when Biden crashes Bernie should be picking up a lot of black voters, because they actually “like” him - in a fav/unfav sense - more than white voters. While I would like to believe you're right, I feel like there's a good chance that, if the media and Dem establishment rallied behind some other candidate, that candidate would pick up most ex-Biden voters.
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Jul 1, 2019 03:13
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https://twitter.com/marwilliamson/status/46812637362782208
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Jul 1, 2019 03:31
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Hasn't Bernie been polling best in New Hampshire for a while? And his ground game is focused there. If he wins the first primary then the 'electability' voters are gonna switch fast, Biden will in all likelihood crash hard. After that the question is how the establishment responds.
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Jul 1, 2019 04:45
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Damnit Marianne, coal plants release more radiation that nuclear plants! Also pouring cold water on a reactor would be a good thing. Thanks angels!
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Jul 1, 2019 05:15
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joepinetree posted:Again, Warren's wealth tax proposal is absolutely silent on enforcement, especially since the US allows for things like anonymous trusts, and since the bulk of wealth can be easily rerouted through foundations, offshore trusts, and offshore accounts. Bernie's 77% estate tax plus 0.5% tax on transfers of financial instruments is not only much more aggressive in its redistributive aspects, not only much more enforceable, but also much more detailed, since they are bills that Bernie has introduced. How do blind trusts, foundations, and offshore stuff work to let elites avoid taxes?
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Jul 1, 2019 05:47
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Hasn't Bernie been polling best in New Hampshire for a while? And his ground game is focused there. If he wins the first primary then the 'electability' voters are gonna switch fast, Biden will in all likelihood crash hard. After that the question is how the establishment responds. It depends. If Biden manages to win Iowa then Bernie winning New Hampshire doesn't necessarily knock him out. If biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he's totally done. I have faith in the good people of Iowa to remember their history and vote for virtually every other candidate before they vote for Biden.
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Jul 1, 2019 06:16
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If kamala harris is the nominee her sole purpose is to punish drunk america for electing trump
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Jul 1, 2019 06:29
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Oh Snapple! posted:The playoffs are not the super bowl. The analogy was fine and you weirdly chose to overcomplicate a matter that's been widely agreed on because ???. it's funny, bc I keep seeing the withers on dk swing back and forth between harris and warren. and at DU, the biden-harris people have declared all-out war on each other. Bernie is smart to keep it lowkey now, and I threw him an extra $50 tonite for his Q2 numbers.
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Jul 1, 2019 07:04
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LinYutang posted:Bernie was doing rallies to build his organization and brand immediately following the 2016 election to today. aka campaigning for other candidates, you dolt.
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Jul 1, 2019 07:07
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JIZZ DENOUEMENT posted:How do blind trusts, foundations, and offshore stuff work to let elites avoid taxes? They allow you to hide your wealth, which is the actual hard part of any proposal to tax wealth. Suddenly, it's not your wealth. It's the wealth of this anonymous trust we don't know who they belong to, or to this company that was incorporated in the Cayman Islands or in Panama or whatever. It also applies to estate taxes (though estate taxes if there is any contention between the beneficiaries can make it all harder to hide), which is why the transfer of financial assets tax that Bernie proposes is so important. You transfer your house and assets to the company Dizz Jenouement that is based out of the Cayman Islands and at least you pay some taxes on that. And Warren is very well aware that that is the challenge. Now, having a broad idea with no specifics at this stage in the campaign is no big deal. Except that the discourse is that Warren is the wonk with actual policies versus pie in the sky Bernie. But in this key Warren policy, she has like a webpage where she discusses taxing wealth, but 0 detail or even acknowledgement of the multiple ways people can easily hide wealth. Meanwhile, Bernie has 2 full proposals, one that increases the estate tax and improves its enforcement, and another that creates a tax on all transfers of financial assets.
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Jul 1, 2019 07:28
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Willa Rogers posted:and at DU, the biden-harris people have declared all-out war on each other. Bernie is smart to keep it lowkey now, and I threw him an extra $50 tonite for his Q2 numbers. holy crap that site still exists? i remember reading it in 2002 lmao
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Jul 1, 2019 07:45
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https://twitter.com/jakeonthecobb/status/1144610462732079105 also who the hell gave pete buttmunch 25 million (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 1, 2019 11:13
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:If kamala harris is the nominee her sole purpose is to support the power structures that never cared about trump
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Jul 1, 2019 12:07
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Willa Rogers posted:aka campaigning for other candidates, you dolt. I remember in 2016 the Hillary crew's line was that she would fight and campaign for the Democratic downballot, while Bernie (who is not even a Democrat) would throw them to the wolves because his campaign was all about him. And then not only did it turn out Hillary was siphoning funds and campaign contributions from the downballot into her Victory Fund (lol), but when Bernie turned out to actually be what they claimed Hillary was they hated it and now campaigning for the downballot is narcissistic and bad.
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Jul 1, 2019 12:08
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The Muppets On PCP posted:https://twitter.com/jakeonthecobb/status/1144610462732079105 This is actually terrifyingly on point. And I presume donors tossing pocket change to the diversity hire
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Jul 1, 2019 12:17
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