Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries?
This poll is closed.
Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher 18 1.46%
Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer 665 54.11%
Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker 319 25.96%
Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord 26 2.12%
Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe 5 0.41%
Julian Castro, the Twin 5 0.41%
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer 5 0.41%
Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath 17 1.38%
Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino 3 0.24%
Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist 8 0.65%
Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen 86 7.00%
Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater 23 1.87%
Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool 32 2.60%
Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy 2 0.16%
Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast 1 0.08%
Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated 4 0.33%
Tim Ryan, the Dope Face 3 0.24%
John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran 7 0.57%
Total: 1229 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
RasperFat
Jul 11, 2006

Uncertainty is inherently unsustainable. Eventually, everything either is or isn't.

mcmagic posted:

LOL @ these people just burning cash.

At this point I’m 90% sure that almost all of these vanity campaigns are more about money laundering than trying to get elected.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

B B
Dec 1, 2005

https://twitter.com/davidsirota/status/1145747419264503808

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!


I'm no expert, but isn't that kind of the entire loving point?

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

the_steve posted:

I'm no expert, but isn't that kind of the entire loving point?

yes but in Kessler's mind pointing out anything bad that is part of the status quo is inherently unfair and/or misleading.

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

Jeff Bezos' Washington Post is such utter loving garbage

Tacier
Jul 22, 2003

the_steve posted:

I'm no expert, but isn't that kind of the entire loving point?

It's comparing the bank balance of rich people to the bank balance of poor people, so apples to oranges.

Halloween Jack
Sep 12, 2003
I WILL CUT OFF BOTH OF MY ARMS BEFORE I VOTE FOR ANYONE THAT IS MORE POPULAR THAN BERNIE!!!!!
Yeah, those people are supposed to live under debt peonage!

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares



I'll take "Motivated Reasoning" for $420.69, Alex.

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches
There are some other choice Kesslerisms in the article as well.

My favorite:

quote:

As for 32 million being thrown off health care, that would only be under scenarios when the Affordable Care Act was repealed with no replacement plan in place — an unlikely scenario. (Sanders could have also been referring to the administration’s support of the lawsuit to invalidate the law entirely, the impact of which is unclear.)

Faustian Bargain
Apr 12, 2014


eviltastic posted:

There are some other choice Kesslerisms in the article as well.

My favorite:
Yes we should definitely trust the GOP to come up with a good replacement since they've been working on it for so long.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

eviltastic posted:

There are some other choice Kesslerisms in the article as well.

My favorite:

You know a quality fact check when you smell burnt toast after thinking about it.

Faustian Bargain posted:

Yes we should definitely trust the GOP to come up with a good replacement since they've been working on it for so long.

Unless the 5 conservatives are going to toss in their own replacement law while finding the ACA unconstitutional I don't think it matters how much you trust the scorpion.

Gyges fucked around with this message at 19:51 on Jul 1, 2019

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Gyges posted:

You know a quality fact check when you smell burnt toast after thinking about it.

Comrade Dyatlov, do you taste metal?

eviltastic
Feb 8, 2004

Fan of Britches

Faustian Bargain posted:

Yes we should definitely trust the GOP to come up with a good replacement since they've been working on it for so long.

I guess we have to give them the benefit of the doubt, given that there wasn't a very recent and very public debate over the particulars of the bullshit alternatives that they put together that any journalist would remember.


(LA Times)

logger
Jun 28, 2008

...and in what manner the Ancyent Marinere came back to his own Country.
Soiled Meat

Kessler: While the notion of everyone else having more integrity than me is true, I have none so this is comparing apples to oranges.

Unoriginal Name
Aug 1, 2006

by sebmojo

It's pretty amazing how this completely changes meaning if you trim the sentences at the word "but"

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
Hot off the presses

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1145784155478863872

Biden dropped 10% from the previous CNN poll

BigBallChunkyTime
Nov 25, 2011

Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.

Illegal Hen

The Glumslinger posted:

Hot off the presses

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1145784155478863872

Biden dropped 10% from the previous CNN poll

Go Liz!

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


lol if biden craters but we're still hosed.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

The Glumslinger posted:

Hot off the presses

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1145784155478863872

Biden dropped 10% from the previous CNN poll

Bernie is in some trouble.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

I expected Biden's support would drop after the debate, but that's bordering on collapse.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


mcmagic posted:

Bernie is in some trouble.

Probably lost some soft supporters to Warren and Harris after their debate performances

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

goethe.cx posted:

Probably lost some soft supporters to Warren and Harris after their debate performances

He has to do a better job in the second debate.

King of Solomon
Oct 23, 2008

S S

The Glumslinger posted:

Hot off the presses

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1145784155478863872

Biden dropped 10% from the previous CNN poll

Ugh, this is a really bad poll. Hopefully things change in a more positive direction.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



mcmagic posted:

Bernie is in some trouble.
It’s one poll.

Marxalot
Dec 24, 2008

Appropriator of
Dan Crenshaw's Eyepatch
I love how all these polls swing by about 10% depending on who runs it

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
I’m just thrilled that we finally have some confirmation that Biden being consistently, obviously awful actually can impact his numbers. Bernie’s fight with Harris and Warren will be tough as hell, especially with the media going out of their loving minds to tear him down while treating the other two kindly. But as bad as Harris is I consider her to be a substantial improvement over Biden - our worst case scenario gets a little less worse when he finally goes down.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Marxalot posted:

I love how all these polls swing by about 10% depending on who runs it

What exactly do you think “margin of error +/- 5%” means?

Jethro
Jun 1, 2000

I was raised on the dairy, Bitch!

Marxalot posted:

I love how all these polls swing by about 10% depending on who runs it
It makes a certain sort of sense. Even once you get beyond the obvious "how did you phrase the question?" stuff that is somewhat less relevant when it comes to candidate polls, each poll can be of a different population. Adults, registered voters, likely voters, democratic voters, etc.

And then everyone has their own secret sauce way to deal with who the gently caress answers their phone anymore?

Mellow Seas posted:

What exactly do you think “margin of error +/- 5%” means?
That too.

E: \/\/\/ Excellent point.

Jethro fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Jul 1, 2019

Your Boy Fancy
Feb 7, 2003

by Cyrano4747

Jethro posted:

And then everyone has their own secret sauce way to deal with who the gently caress answers their phone anymore?

So fun aside about this. Gig economy, since well before the inception of cellphones, has been a phone-tree based operation. A job comes in and needs X people, and the dispatch / call steward phones everybody. It's not always the same phone, and if it's a text, it's often an automated system that comes from a weird number you don't recognize. So there's a significant chunk of the labor force that answers every phone call, because it might just have a few hundred bucks on the other end.

There's lots of lived experiences out there, and they're not all quite as streamlined as the modern world feels like it could be.

theblackw0lf
Apr 15, 2003

"...creating a vision of the sort of society you want to have in miniature"
Pretty sure the final three are going to be Warren, Bernie, and Harris. Just not sure who will end up winning.

Harris will do great in debates, but I'm skeptical she has a savvy political operation. And her lack of policies, especially contrasted with Warren, could end up hurting her.

theblackw0lf fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jul 1, 2019

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

Bernie's problem is that there's basically jack poo poo he can do to magically prove that the other candidates aren't trustworthy. This is why, prior to the primary, I felt Warren would be the biggest problem.

Basically, older voters are looking for something that Bernie can't be (someone who will smoothly and charismatically lay sweet owns on Trump). He benefited in 2016 from Hillary being really lame.

There's likely nothing he can do to convert people through the debates, so the important thing will be whether or not he can mobilize his much larger motivated base (and Sanders likely has more strongly committed supporters than any other candidate).

Marxalot
Dec 24, 2008

Appropriator of
Dan Crenshaw's Eyepatch

Mellow Seas posted:

What exactly do you think “margin of error +/- 5%” means?

That nerds shouldn't pay too much attention to this garbage whether it means the news happens to be good or bad for Your Guy(or Gal) that particular day. It's only useful for trying to make weak dunks online.



Jethro posted:

It makes a certain sort of sense. Even once you get beyond the obvious "how did you phrase the question?" stuff that is somewhat less relevant when it comes to candidate polls, each poll can be of a different population. Adults, registered voters, likely voters, democratic voters, etc.

And then everyone has their own secret sauce way to deal with who the gently caress answers their phone anymore?

That too.

Pretty much.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Marxalot posted:

That nerds shouldn't pay too much attention to this garbage whether it means the news happens to be good or bad for Your Guy(or Gal) that particular day. It's only useful for trying to make weak dunks online.

I definitely agree that every poll between now and February 3rd is, as they say when publishing sports betting lines, for entertainment purposes only.

theblackw0lf
Apr 15, 2003

"...creating a vision of the sort of society you want to have in miniature"
This is interesting

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1145788650485178368

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008


I think he missed the galaxy brain take here: “Look that’s wealth in the 12 figures! That 50% is doing fine...”

GonadTheBallbarian
Jul 23, 2007


Mellow Seas posted:

What exactly do you think “margin of error +/- 5%” means?

that is not even remotely close to what that means

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Fact Check: calling it "crunchy peanut butter" is misleading because it's only crunchy because there's hard bits in it.

Heavy neutrino
Sep 16, 2007

You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.

Mellow Seas posted:

What exactly do you think “margin of error +/- 5%” means?

???? It's definitely not what you think it means.

It's on a normal distribution, meaning the -5 and +5 lie at the edges of the 95% confidence interval. They should be vanishingly rare compared to smaller misses like +/- 1.3%

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


https://mobile.twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1145804312637054976

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.
Whatever you think of Harris surging, I'm at least glad to see a national poll without Biden ahead by double digits.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply