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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher |
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18 | 1.46% |
| Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer |
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665 | 54.11% |
| Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker |
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319 | 25.96% |
| Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord |
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26 | 2.12% |
| Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Julian Castro, the Twin |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath |
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17 | 1.38% |
| Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino |
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3 | 0.24% |
| Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist |
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8 | 0.65% |
| Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen |
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86 | 7.00% |
| Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater |
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23 | 1.87% |
| Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool |
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32 | 2.60% |
| Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy |
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2 | 0.16% |
| Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast |
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1 | 0.08% |
| Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated |
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4 | 0.33% |
| Tim Ryan, the Dope Face |
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3 | 0.24% |
| John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran |
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7 | 0.57% |
| Total: | 1229 votes | ||
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mcmagic posted:Bernie is in some trouble. How so? To me, it looks like a big improvement from a couple weeks ago when some polls were showing him 20 points behind the frontrunner.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:29
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Main Paineframe posted:How so? To me, it looks like a big improvement from a couple weeks ago when some polls were showing him 20 points behind the frontrunner. The presumption was that if Biden failed, some of that support would drift to Bernie. Instead it seems to have gone to Warren and Harris.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:31
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How can all the sub 1% candidates justify staying in? It's one thing for Marianne or Yang, where they genuinely have something different to say. But Delaney? Bennet? They have nothing to offer to anyone.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:31
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It's a fair statement to make when viewing Palestinians as human isn't conducive to getting that sweet AIPAC support. In any case I don't know how anyone can look at stuff like this and think Harris is in any way committed to civil rights. Oh Snapple! fucked around with this message at 22:37 on Jul 1, 2019 |
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Jul 1, 2019 22:32
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The interesting thing to me would be what would happen to Bernie's numbers if Warren dropped out. Currently Warren is the only other remotely plausible candidate where people can at least feel like they're not compromising their values (even if that might not be true), but I wonder if many of her supporters will go to Sanders if she isn't there and there's no excuses they can make for supporting anyone else. I know that at least a significant subset would go to Harris, but I wonder if it's larger than the subset who would go to Bernie.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:44
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Honestly, Cillizza is the only one keeping Kessler from being the biggest hack in town. RE pollingchat: Castro skyrocketed up "candidate you would most like to hear more about", jumping from 3% in April to 16% (5th, behind Harris, Warren, Pete, and Booker respectively, tied with Bernie) Same metric saw Biden down 4%, Beto down 6% and Tim Ryan dropping 4% down to 1% e:vvvvv Phrasing gives the answer there. It's people who watched OR closely followed the coverage afterwards, which was heavily Biden - Harris focused. Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Jul 1, 2019 |
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Jul 1, 2019 22:48
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There are some other interesting results in that poll. I didn't expect this one to be quite so heavily in favor of Harris:
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Jul 1, 2019 22:49
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eviltastic posted:There are some other interesting results in that poll. I didn't expect this one to be quite so heavily in favor of Harris: Why? I saw the debate and Harris definitely was the breakout of the debate when she attacked Biden on bussing.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:51
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Luckyellow posted:Why? I saw the debate and Harris definitely was the breakout of the debate when she attacked Biden on bussing. She also had the zinger about food fights when everyone talked at once that was painfully prepared ahead of time but still managed to land it. They played that one over and over.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:53
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Gripweed posted:How can all the sub 1% candidates justify staying in? It's one thing for Marianne or Yang, where they genuinely have something different to say. But Delaney? Bennet? They have nothing to offer to anyone. Book deals, speaking gigs, general publicity for their career, hiring friends and family to run their campaign, pick one or more eviltastic posted:There are some other interesting results in that poll. I didn't expect this one to be quite so heavily in favor of Harris: She generally did well/didn't gently caress up entirely with some first year highschool rear end spanish, dunked on biden, and got a lot of positive press it. I wouldn't have expected it to be that hard either, but it fits.
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Jul 1, 2019 22:54
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yea when the question is just pure 'who did the best' Harris is the only answer by a mile unless you're super into Castro's now kinda weak looking shiv of Beto. Lol @ Warren at number two purely because 'well I like her and she didn't say a slur so she did great'. Like yea that's how 90% of debate 'analysis' is but there's no way she had anything but an acceptable night compared to Harris going from 'and still for some reason running' to 'lol did you see her own biden'
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Jul 1, 2019 22:54
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Oracle posted:She also had the zinger about food fights when everyone talked at once that was painfully prepared ahead of time but still managed to land it. They played that one over and over. This and the post above says so much of why our current debate structure, and what the media rewards, is so screwed up. Effective zingers and attacks on opponents, get you a lot of traction, but say so little about how effective a president you'd be.
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Jul 1, 2019 23:06
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Luckyellow posted:Why? I saw the debate and Harris definitely was the breakout of the debate when she attacked Biden on bussing. Same reason Biden somehow got to the number three slot - I expected some more head scratchingly odd results that didn't match my view, from people invested in seeing it differently.
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Jul 1, 2019 23:07
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theblackw0lf posted:This and the post above says so much of why our current debate structure, and what the media rewards, is so screwed up. Its almost like our entire current model for how presidential candidates get coverage and picked has been maximized to help seel TV/newspaper ads as opposed to actually picking the best candidiate
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Jul 1, 2019 23:17
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Hope this isn't just downplaying expectations. I'm afraid Buttman is going to make more though.(for reasons Faiz mentions) https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1145811014346313728
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Jul 1, 2019 23:29
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Heavy neutrino posted:???? It's definitely not what you think it means. Well, ok, I just thought Marxalot's kvetch was kind of silly, and noticed that the numbers line up neatly. I figured I was probably applying it in a technically incorrect sense. Fortunately if a single stats guys see you gently caress up some stats it will become a learning experience very quickly!
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Jul 1, 2019 23:32
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Gripweed posted:How can all the sub 1% candidates justify staying in? It's one thing for Marianne or Yang, where they genuinely have something different to say. But Delaney? Bennet? They have nothing to offer to anyone. Weirdos like Yang or Williamson are selling likely selling books or increasing their personal 'brand'. edit: Like, that's literally what Biden did - keep running no-hope presidential campaigns for a couple cycles until he got picked for the VP spot, which would have usually have made him the heir-apparent if it wasn't for cough cough ahem ahem. Tibalt fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Jul 1, 2019 |
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Jul 1, 2019 23:37
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looks like someone else has a problem with the polls https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1145823143308812289
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Jul 1, 2019 23:48
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eviltastic posted:There are some other interesting results in that poll. I didn't expect this one to be quite so heavily in favor of Harris: 10% for Biden 10% for Biden 10% for Biden
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Jul 1, 2019 23:55
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sexpig by night posted:yea when the question is just pure 'who did the best' Harris is the only answer by a mile unless you're super into Castro's now kinda weak looking shiv of Beto. Lol @ Warren at number two purely because 'well I like her and she didn't say a slur so she did great'. Like yea that's how 90% of debate 'analysis' is but there's no way she had anything but an acceptable night compared to Harris going from 'and still for some reason running' to 'lol did you see her own biden' Look at the 10% who picked Biden and ask yourself whether that encompasses the entire segment of the party/likely primary voters who were upset the younger black lady was so mean to the famous old white guy. Maybe I'm a pessimist but....
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Jul 1, 2019 23:56
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mcmagic posted:Bernie is in some trouble. if your preferred outcome is someone other than bernie getting the nomination this is basically the worst case scenario
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Jul 2, 2019 00:05
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Unoriginal Name posted:10% for Biden This is entirely folks angry at that ~mean black woman~
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Jul 2, 2019 00:16
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The Muppets On PCP posted:if your preferred outcome is someone other than bernie getting the nomination this is basically the worst case scenario What?
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Jul 2, 2019 00:27
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HootTheOwl posted:What? I assume the logic is that Bernie's losses are less important than Biden's and if Biden collapses Bernie can overtake Harris and Warren. I think the only real lessons we can/should take from this is (a) all the beliefs that Biden would falter once the primaries began in earnest are supported and his team needs to find a way to turn that around. (b) Bernie probably needs to make a better impression in the second debate. (c) Harris and Warren need to make sure to keep their feet on the gas and take advantage of the momentum.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:29
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STAC Goat posted:I assume the logic is that Bernie's losses are less important than Biden's and if Biden collapses Bernie can overtake Harris and Warren. I don't think Biden's collapse is good or bad for Bernie. The bad thing for Bernie is that the centrists in the race like Major Butt and Harris are hugging him and his policies so that if you're a typical voter, Bernie isn't able to stand out.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:31
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If Bernie had jumped or Harris and Warren hadn't then, yeah, Biden's loss would be a gain for Bernie. The way it went thinking this is good for Bernie only means you think Harris and Warren's bumps are soft and will fade. Its possible but that seems presumptuous especially since Bernie seemed at least a little hurt by the debate and what some feel was a slightly poor performance. But again, I think the debates are really just about evaluating what worked and what didn't and adjusting in kind.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:36
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Also I think the delta between Warren and Bernie just isn't viable to people who aren't really ingrained in leftist politics and organizing.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:38
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mcmagic posted:I don't think Biden's collapse is good or bad for Bernie. The bad thing for Bernie is that the centrists in the race like Major Butt and Harris are hugging him and his policies so that if you're a typical voter, Bernie isn't able to stand out. Yeah, the biggest issue outside of Biden is other contenders realizing that it behooves them to make positive statements about Bernie's policies and that they can always walk it back later knowing that at this stage hardly anyone is going to see it. See: Kamala twice going back on the private insurance bit at this point, in addition to her little stunt of no-showing that AIPAC conference and instead welcoming them with a closed-door meeting.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:40
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HootTheOwl posted:What? the not-bernie vote split among 3+ candidates is pretty much bernie's sole path to victory. also keep in mind there's a 15% vote threshold for awarding delegates
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Jul 2, 2019 00:42
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Bernie is now far from the only leftward candidate, even if his cred on "being left" is still the highest among high-information left-wing voters. He's not your only anti-big banking candidate, and he's not your only M4A candidate, at least on paper. He's not going to be able to build support by just doing the same stump speech at every campaign event and talk show. His claim to fame is being obviously preferable to Hillary. She isn't here. He didn't actually run a good campaign last time, by his own admission. Difficult to figure out how he's going to do that now when he's already getting crowded out during debates.
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Jul 2, 2019 00:54
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mcmagic posted:Also I think the delta between Warren and Bernie just isn't viable to people who aren't really ingrained in leftist politics and organizing. Not die-hard leftists, but my local Our Revolution chapter has already begun splitting, with a core group of people defecting to Warren. Sanders' positions and rhetoric on race seems to be a dividing line, like his vote on the 1994 crime reform bill.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:06
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I think there's a risk of reading too much into this particular shift, especially if you don't expect Biden's coalition to move in unison. @AsteadWesley (NYT/CNN) has been reporting for weeks that Harris has been aiming at the moderate and/or older black supporters who have gravitated towards Biden. This is crucial for SC and Super Tuesday states, and thus to Harris' run, but less so in the early states. If Biden's losses are coming primarily from the crowd Harris has courted, I would expect the remainder of his base will depart in other directions should he crater further.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:16
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theblackw0lf posted:This is interesting I'm the guy that said Hickenlooper is the best able to handle the climate crisis.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:17
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The supposed Warren and Harris supporters on this forum are largely mythical. We don't have Warren "supporters" here, we just have bernie-or-busters and then a (shrinking) group of people willing to discuss second choice options and/or trying to discuss the practicalities of who might win rather than the moralities of who should. I have yet to see anyone actually post "I think Harris should win" just a few tentative steps towards "I fear Harris might win" which usually get shouted down. I support Warren
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Jul 2, 2019 01:34
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LinYutang posted:Not die-hard leftists, but my local Our Revolution chapter has already begun splitting, with a core group of people defecting to Warren. Sanders' positions and rhetoric on race seems to be a dividing line, like his vote on the 1994 crime reform bill. Yes, I'm sure these people that you know that actually exist are voting for Warren because of Bernie's vote on the '94 crime bill.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:39
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lol if you think the polling is ever going to show Bernie Sanders leading the field The only possible way Bernie wins the primary is if the 2020 Democratic primary electorate is very different than that of 2016, and for that matter 2008, 2004, etc. And polling agencies aren't going to conduct a poll based on entirely different turnout than we've seen in the past 10 Presidential primaries, because those polls would be worthless. If you think the electorate in the primary isn't going to change much since 2016 and if you think Bernie's ground game and volunteering advantage isn't going to amount to much (or that he doesn't have that advantage) then especially with this crowded field and the nominal shift to the left within it, it's basically equivalent to thinking he's going to lose. IMO Bernie wins by staying within striking distance in the polls and then pulling off "upset" after "upset" in the polls that matter, based on turning out new voters. Bernie wins by making a new Democratic base, not appealing to the old one.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:39
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The supposed Warren and Harris supporters on this forum are largely mythical. There's nothing mystical about them. They're just silent - they know that if they dare dissent from the Bernie-or-bust hivemind, they'll get harassed out of the thread by rabid Bernie stans (often, but not always, white men). It's exhausting Calibanibal fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Jul 2, 2019 |
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Jul 2, 2019 01:41
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There is no way Kamala beats Trump in 2020. Just no way, barring Trump OBVIOUSLY making GBS threads his pants during a town hall debate and tracking it all over the stage in a double figure eight pattern.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:42
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guestimate posted:There is no way Kamala beats Trump in 2020. Just no way, barring Trump OBVIOUSLY making GBS threads his pants during a town hall debate and tracking it all over the stage in a double figure eight pattern. I can imagine a path forward for her as the "Charge Trump with everything" law and order candidate. I don't know if it would work or if it is a good idea, but I can imagine it. RuanGacho fucked around with this message at 01:47 on Jul 2, 2019 |
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Jul 2, 2019 01:44
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| # ? May 23, 2024 13:48 |
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Calibanibal posted:There's nothing mystical about them. They're just silent - they know that if they dare dissent from the Bernie-or-bust hivemind, they'll get harassed out of the thread by rabid Bernie stans (almost invariably, white men). It's exhausting Cut this poo poo out. I’m a black man, Bernie supporter.
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Jul 2, 2019 01:44
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