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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries? This poll is closed. |
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| Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher |
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18 | 1.46% |
| Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer |
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665 | 54.11% |
| Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker |
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319 | 25.96% |
| Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord |
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26 | 2.12% |
| Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Julian Castro, the Twin |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer |
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5 | 0.41% |
| Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath |
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17 | 1.38% |
| Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino |
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3 | 0.24% |
| Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist |
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8 | 0.65% |
| Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen |
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86 | 7.00% |
| Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater |
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23 | 1.87% |
| Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool |
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32 | 2.60% |
| Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy |
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2 | 0.16% |
| Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast |
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1 | 0.08% |
| Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated |
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4 | 0.33% |
| Tim Ryan, the Dope Face |
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3 | 0.24% |
| John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran |
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7 | 0.57% |
| Total: | 1229 votes | ||
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Gatts posted:Is this good? Or do I live in mortal fear for the Butt has 25 million?
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Jul 2, 2019 19:02
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Gatts posted:Is this good? Or do I live in mortal fear for the Butt has 25 million? fools and their money etc etc
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Jul 2, 2019 19:09
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Some new polls https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1146066907092488192 https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1146117479439196160 Can we please retire the tired "debates don't matter!" argument now? Debates can absolutely matter if you do them right; it's just that we're so used to politicians who suck at them.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:12
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https://twitter.com/Hillary16IsBAE/status/1146074428352192512
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Jul 2, 2019 19:16
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Z. Autobahn posted:Some new polls Polls don't really matter, so saying that the debates changed the poll results is not a defense of debates mattering. Also that Iowa poll is weird, since it's showing that Biden's support held more or less steady (the most recent Iowa polls had him at 30 and 24 points) but Harris surged via taking Bernie Sanders and Buttigieg voters? That's an odd coalition if accurate. Guess we'll need to wait and see if it's an outlier or not.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:23
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Polls don't really matter, so saying that the debates changed the poll results is not a defense of debates mattering. It's really not. The vast majority of voters do not think about politics through a coherent ideological lense. Also let's be realistic, these polls are bad for Bernie and these polls matter because they shape expectations and reporting. At this point it's getting very difficult to imagine a plausible path to the nomination.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:27
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The actual campaigning has barely even started, so maybe we should wait and see before freaking out over some garbage polling?
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Jul 2, 2019 19:30
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Polls don't really matter, so saying that the debates changed the poll results is not a defense of debates mattering. But, every poll you're going to see between now and the Democratic convention is going to be based on a set of assumptions made by pollsters which, if they hold true, means Sanders is going to lose. This has literally always been the case. I think Sanders was in the lead for a while when he was effectively the only person running or whatever, but other than that if you're expecting him to take the lead in the polling now that the race is on, it's going to be a long year for you. I mean it's great if he does, but it's probably not going to happen since the pollsters are polling and weighting according to the 2016 primary electorate, and if the 2016 primary electorate is what we get in 2020, he's not going to win. So get comfortable with that fact. It's one thing if his polling completely collapses and he's down there with O'Rourke or whatever, but short of that if he's showing he has a following that's good enough, and we just have to wait for the first couple of states to know if the base-building he's been doing for four years paid off or not.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:31
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Helsing posted:
Eh, not really. There are still plenty of plausible paths for Bernie. They just involve two of the following three things happening: 1) Biden has to keep stepping on his own dick (highly likely) 2) Kamala Harris has to collapse somehow (moderately to reasonably likely, definitely plausible) 3) Warren's support has to drop down (another DNA test style flub could do this easily) Any two of those happen and Bernie has a decent chance of gaining enough support that he moves into the lead. #2 and #3 aren't wildly likely but neither is impossible and the chance of one or the other happening is decent. EDIT: oh yeah or 4) unusually high pro bernie youth turnout Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Jul 2, 2019 |
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Jul 2, 2019 19:34
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https://twitter.com/willmenaker/status/1146123379344363521 Harris bad.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:38
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Z. Autobahn posted:Can we please retire the tired "debates don't matter!" argument now? Debates can absolutely matter if you do them right; it's just that we're so used to politicians who suck at them. Biden was sundowning the entire time so MSDOS KAPITAL posted:wtf of course polls matter  Polling data still consistent with my 2016 prediction of Trump winning 2020. Nostradumbass McHellworld has logged the f*k in  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 2, 2019 19:41
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:wtf of course polls matter I'm not really sure they do, though I still enjoy going through the results and crosstabs, like with this Iowa poll that says Biden is in the lead of every demographic regardless of race or age. A poll showing Biden winning a plurality of 18-35 year olds is fascinating to see and is out of step with virtually every other poll. How'd they even find that sample? But yes I am aware of the challenge and am already tabling and canvassing in my area for Bernie No Middle Name Sanders. Sanders path is one requiring unprecedented youth and minority turnout. Except for these 18-35 year olds in Iowa who say that healthcare is their number one concern and proudly claim to support Joe Biden. Don't know what's up with them.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:41
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Marxalot posted:Biden was sundowning the entire time so Well, yeah, I mean, debates matter in basically three cases: - An unknown candidate using it as a moment to boost their image and get their message out there (Bernie 2016, Castro 2019) - A candidate comes off as consistently weak/flustered/inept (Rubio 2016, Biden 2019) - A candidate very strongly and efficiently attacks another (Christie-Rubio 2016, Kamala-Biden 2019) An aggressive confident capable candidate and a weak flustered sundowning candidate is a perfect recipe for Mattering
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Jul 2, 2019 19:46
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Mike the TV posted:My wife pays for the top-tier Kaiser plan at over $650 per month and it covers almost nothing except flu shots. lmao at people that want to keep the current system. Burn it all down. Literally having no system and paying cash straight to doctors would be better. I have KP and I say burn it all down.
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Jul 2, 2019 19:48
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Ranter posted:Just wondering what she thinks it doesn't cover. My employer gives me the same $653.64 Kaiser plan (I pay $65), $10 copays, $1500 max out of pocket a year. It covers a lot but maybe I still don't understand how HMOs in this country work.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:02
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Marxalot posted:Biden was sundowning the entire time so That wasn’t the final 2016 result moron
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Jul 2, 2019 20:08
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Oracle posted:Its fear of the unknown plain and simple. When what's at stake is your health and ultimately your life and that of your loved ones people get pretty risk averse pretty drat quick. Especially when the doctors themselves (unlike nurses) are not eager to upset the gravy train.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:11
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Gatts posted:Is this good? Or do I live in mortal fear for the Butt has 25 million? I mean you guys are working yourselves into a tizzy about polling eight months out from the Iowa caucus, which is still firmly in "useless data/noise" territory. So, it helps to go outside. I say this as a person who had to learn this.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:12
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VitalSigns posted:Lol that the risk of having to pay $10 out of pocket is supposed to scare people living under the American health system where five and six figure surprise bills are so common that people fight to remain conscious in car accidents so they can refuse an ambulance America, where you ignore that you're coughing up blood till you literally die because it's not like you have the money to get treatment anyways. goethe.cx posted:That wasn’t the final 2016 result moron the point was seeing the famous polls man all disheveled on election night, sorry I made fun of mr nathaniel bronze
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Jul 2, 2019 20:14
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My nana went to the NHS to get 100% free life-saving surgery that would have put an American into six generations of penury if he was allowed to have it at all, and when I came to see her they were out of free lollipops, what is Bernie Sanders' plan to fix this problem if he's even aware of issues with socialized medicine.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:27
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VitalSigns posted:Lol that the risk of having to pay $10 out of pocket is supposed to scare people living under the American health system where five and six figure surprise bills are so common that people fight to remain conscious in car accidents so they can refuse an ambulance I support m4a and Bernie. I was asking if Bernie's single payer is structured differently so that what happened in Australia won't also happen here. Sounds like it will (governments will underfund it) but you're right it's better than what the USA currently has. If it's fundamentally different and people won't pay doctors and health care providers $$ out of pocket to make up the underfunded difference then I want to understand how that's done. Please dont assume everyone not demanding guillotines is secretly trying to undermine Bernie. I'm not that smart.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:34
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Eh, not really. There are still plenty of plausible paths for Bernie. They just involve two of the following three things happening: My concern is that it isn't enough for him to finish with the most delegates, he needs an outright majority, and that is much more difficult given present circumstances. The big hope, in my opinion, is that these polls are more or less completely inaccurate (not hard to believe, since public polling mostly exists to garner views or to shape expectations) and Sanders' army of volunteers demonstrates that ground game really can be effective.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:36
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Ranter posted:I support m4a and Bernie. I was asking if Bernie's single payer is structured differently so that what happened in Australia won't also happen here. Sounds like it will (governments will underfund it) but you're right it's better than what the USA currently has. If it's fundamentally different and people won't pay doctors and health care providers $$ out of pocket to make up the underfunded difference then I want to understand how that's done. Bernie's M4A bill bans balance billing, so no doctors can't charge you extra, at least not legally anyway
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Jul 2, 2019 20:36
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hot take: Williamson actually basically owns aside from being goofy like she's basically Weird Wine-Mom Bernie and gently caress, I'll take that over like 75% of these ghouls
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Jul 2, 2019 20:38
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VitalSigns posted:Bernie's M4A bill bans balance billing, so no doctors can't charge you extra, at least not legally anyway That's amazing. That needs to stay in the bill. If Warren negotiates that away then she's fuckin poo poo.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:39
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VitalSigns posted:Bernie's M4A bill bans balance billing, so no doctors can't charge you extra, at least not legally anyway Already banned under Medicaid also. If you take Medicaid payment you can't charge anything additional.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:41
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Helsing posted:It's loving insane to think you can reverse engineer the strategies of a party run by white supremacist oligarchs and merely apply the same tactics to fight for a completely different political agenda. All you're doing is giving your leaders the necessary tools to break their promises. All you're doing is taking the most politically active and conscious part of your own coalition and constantly telling them to internalize the beliefs and thoughts of the enemy. This is one of the many reasons why I dislike Warren so much. How does she expect to defeat the literal white supremacist/Christian theocrat party if she can’t even go on Fox News? Bernie got a Fox News studio audience to cheer for every progressive policy he proposed by rationally explaining each one in a calm demeanor. Warren is so toxic for the left-wing base right now. Please don’t fall for a centrist who literally took a DNA test for Trump.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:42
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Link to the bill
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Jul 2, 2019 20:49
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The reason that capital as a class doesn't support nationalized healthcare is that the driving ideological justification for their supremacy in society is predicated on the premise that the Government can't do anything right. Nationalized healthcare represents a direct contradiction of that premise. They don't oppose it because they think it won't work and be incredibly effective, they oppose it because the know full well that not only would it be extremely effective and incredibly popular once in place, but that once people see an example of a government plan working and doing what it's purported to do, then they'll start asking "well if the Government did this so well, what else should it be doing?" It's the same reason why they hate USPS so much, it's literally a socialized service that's written into the constitution and calls lie to their assertion that the United States is inherently a capitalist nation. Their status is contingent on a mythology that's based on a foundation of lies, anything that weakens peoples faith in that mythology is a threat to them all.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:56
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lol I'm not going to defend Nate but I think there's a difference between that and just saying "actually polls do matter." Like I've gone out of my way to explain why I think the polling is going to systematically underrate Bernie (and for that matter, though probably to a lesser extent, Warren) but you ignored all that poo poo in favor of the zinger. Good on you  But, I think if the polls did show Bernie with a clear and commanding lead up to this point with no sign of faltering, you probably wouldn't be in here talking about how polls don't matter quite so much.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:56
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Polls don't really matter, so saying that the debates changed the poll results is not a defense of debates mattering. 40% of respondents didn't watch the night 2 debate. It's possible that Biden voters were disproportionately represented in that less-engaged cohort. And engagement is still a clear problem, given that over 70% of respondents thought it was important to nominate someone who supports M4A, the Green New Deal, and free college, yet Biden is still topping the polls. Helsing posted:It's really not. The vast majority of voters do not think about politics through a coherent ideological lense. These polls have the same problem that every poll has: they're a poll of old white boomer sentiment, not of the Dem electorate at large. I'm sticking to my position that polling to see whether youth enthusiasm is up for 2020 is going to be a far more reliable way of determining the primary result than polling candidate support would be.  And the tweets make it even worse by leaving out the fact that even after the debates, "Undecided" is still beating everyone except Biden, with a whopping 21%.
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Jul 2, 2019 20:58
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do the people who switch to harris not care shes terrible or do they not google her? is it just because she was an aggressive debater?
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Jul 2, 2019 20:58
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Edgar Allan Pwned posted:do the people who switch to harris not care shes terrible or do they not google her? is it just because she was an aggressive debater? They watched her for thirty seconds and she sounds like a go-getter It's not just that they didn't google her, they didn't even watch the debate, they're going off of the 10 second clip they heard in the background at the car dealership over the weekend
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Jul 2, 2019 21:05
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Z. Autobahn posted:Some new polls If 2016 holds true, we should see Biden's numbers go down for about two weeks before slowly ticking up until the next debate. Debates matter, but their impact lessens over time.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:08
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Main Paineframe posted:These polls have the same problem that every poll has: they're a poll of old white boomer sentiment, not of the Dem electorate at large. I'm sticking to my position that polling to see whether youth enthusiasm is up for 2020 is going to be a far more reliable way of determining the primary result than polling candidate support would be. This is specifically a poll of Iowa though, which is extremely white.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:10
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:lol I'm not going to defend Nate but I think there's a difference between that and just saying "actually polls do matter." Like I've gone out of my way to explain why I think the polling is going to systematically underrate Bernie (and for that matter, though probably to a lesser extent, Warren) but you ignored all that poo poo in favor of the zinger. Good on you I predicted Trump was going to be the next President the moment Bernie won the Michigan primary. It was abundantly clear that the rustbelt was simply not going to pull the lever for an establishment shill in 2016. They had Hillary polling 20+ points in Michigan as well. So yeah, I think “polling” has been proven to be little more than establishment gaslighting and public manipulation since 2016.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:12
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Skex posted:It's the same reason why they hate USPS so much, it's literally a socialized service that's written into the constitution and calls lie to their assertion that the United States is inherently a capitalist nation. Their status is contingent on a mythology that's based on a foundation of lies, anything that weakens peoples faith in that mythology is a threat to them all. eh, private package services don't hate usps in fact they rely on them because they basically act as a subsidy for last mile delivery services the reason capital hates m4a is because they'd lose a captive market. insurance and the current healthcare system generates tens of billions in stolen wealth every year
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Jul 2, 2019 21:17
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The Muppets On PCP posted:eh, private package services don't hate usps in fact they rely on them because they basically act as a subsidy for last mile delivery services That only applies to a segment of capitalists. The general objection is to the concept of government doing things period because their entire argument their entire loving movement is predicated on the premise that the government is inept incompetent and impotent. And yeah they do hate USPS, they'll exploit it like they'll exploit everything but there is a reason why the GOP has been doing things like forcing them to fund their pension systems out insane times in the future that no other organization is expected to do.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:33
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Comparison of RCP poll average versus results for the primaries that Bernie won in 2016 (for states with enough polling for an RCP average): NH - Bernie overperformed polls by 9 points VT- Bernie underperfomed polls by 2.5 points OK- Bernie overperformed polls by 8.4 CO- overperformed by 46.5 MN- overperfomed by 57.2 MI- overperformed by 23 AK- overperformed by 66.2 WI- overperformed by 11 IN- overperformed by11.8 RI- overperformed by 14 WV- overperformed by 9.4 OR- overperformed by 25 Bernie's success has always been tied to getting unlikely voters out in a way that dramatically contradicts pollster expectations.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:36
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joepinetree posted:Comparison of RCP poll average versus results for the primaries that Bernie won in 2016 (for states with enough polling for an RCP average): What about the primaries he lost? Genuinely curious.
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Jul 2, 2019 21:39
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