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soy
Jul 7, 2003

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

If UFO aliens were real how successfully has the government/aliens even covered anything up? Everyone everywhere knows about them.

Cognitive dissonance. Even if an alien walked into my room and showed me their space dick I would not believe it.

Everyone everywhere has heard about this or that sighting, and it's still a joke to 99% of people.

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MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





Lightning Knight posted:

I concede point one as possible I guess but I don’t buy point two. If aliens are real and have visited Earth and the US government knew it and could prove it, it would’ve been leaked. The US government is profoundly stupid and aliens would be A Big Deal.
It has leaked LK. Who do you think is going on all these TV shows?

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!
[ask] me about the Stargate conspiracy

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry

soy posted:

Cognitive dissonance. Even if an alien walked into my room and showed me their space dick I would not believe it.

Everyone everywhere has heard about this or that sighting, and it's still a joke to 99% of people.

I'd believe it, probably wouldn't be sure what was happening though.

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry
What does extraterrestrial junk look like?

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry
You guys remember how nasa drew a dick on mars? How do we know our planet wasn't made to look like a alien sex organ? We can't, it's impossible.

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry
Maybe that's what the crop formations are. Alien dicks and balls.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

soy posted:

Cognitive dissonance. Even if an alien walked into my room and showed me their space dick I would not believe it.

Everyone everywhere has heard about this or that sighting, and it's still a joke to 99% of people.


drilldo squirt posted:

You guys remember how nasa drew a dick on mars? How do we know our planet wasn't made to look like a alien sex organ? We can't, it's impossible.

Us: Speculating wildly on the incomprehensible nature of alien's junk.

Also Us: Why won't aliens talk to us??

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Stoner Sloth posted:

Why won't aliens talk to us??

There are so many legitimate reasons not to talk to us, let alone visit us.

1) We can't escape Earth's confines, so we're quite unimportant on a galactic scale. It takes us extraordinary effort to reach our moon, and we rarely bother. Numerous logistical concerns make a manned mission to Mars effectively impossible.

2) Earth is squalid with poverty, inequality, and petty tyranny. According to the World Bank's quite rosy figures (compared to other sources), half the planet lives on less than $5.50 a day. Our democracies, such as they are, and arguably our most advanced form of government, are young, unstable, and weak.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

3) As mentioned in the OP, our environment is probably poisonous to any aliens with remotely similar biology. Even to hostile aliens, we are probably inedible.

If aliens are monitoring us in secrecy or semi-secrecy, it may well be a The Day The Earth Stood Still situation to make sure we don't develop into an intergalactic leukemia that has to be glassed at the source.

Name Change fucked around with this message at 01:18 on Jul 9, 2019

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Sodomy Hussein posted:



2) Earth is squalid with poverty, inequality, and petty tyranny. According to the World Bank's quite rosy figures (compared to other sources), half the planet lives on less than $5.50 a day. Our democracies, such as they are, and arguably our most advanced form of government, are young, unstable, and weak.


Why would aliens care how many usd people have? If you met some aliens and they only had an average of 3 dollars each would you make some “ugg, lets not talk to these poor jerks”

soy
Jul 7, 2003

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Why would aliens care how many usd people have? If you met some aliens and they only had an average of 3 dollars each would you make some “ugg, lets not talk to these poor jerks”

Ya if they have interstellar travel pegged it’s likely that they have overcome scarcity and our little earth problems are just a simple logistical error they would care little about.

LtStorm
Aug 8, 2010

You'll pay for this, Shady Shrew!


Illuminti posted:

https://www.metabunk.org/go-fast-footage-from-tom-delonges-to-the-stars-academy-bird-balloon.t9569/

I find this a very compelling argument about the GO FAST footage that kicked off this current wave of UFO interest. Long story short it seems highly likely it was just a misidentified balloon.

This isn't all of the footage that kicked off the current wave of UFO interest, just the weaker part of it. The other part was the 2004 USS Nimitz UFO incident. The GO FAST footage was more or less released alongside that but the GO FAST incident is just that video which was recorded off the east coast of the U.S. at an undetermined time by an F/A-18 Super Hornet equipped with a Raytheon AN/ASQ-228 ATFLIR Pod.

During the Nimitz incident footage happened to also be taken by an F/A-18 Super Hornet equipped with a Raytheon AN/ASQ-228 ATFLIR Pod also. In this footage the UFO appears to be flying at a fairly slow speed when the crew found and locked on to it. Unlike in GO FAST they have no problem keeping the camera centered; it locks on and stays focused on the target as you'd expect a targeting system to. The only time the ATFLIR pod loses its lock is at the end of the Nimitz video when the UFO exits stage right at a comical speed.

Which brings us back to the GO FAST footage; the crew appears to have trouble locking their ATFLIR on to the UFO. Is this because the object is moving very fast, as the crew claim, or very slow, as the debunker claims? We know from the Nimitz footage the ATFLIR can have its lock broken by an object moving at a hypersonic velocity. I don't know if that particular ATFLIR can lock onto stationary targets well; presumably there must be a configuration for ground attacks but I don't know if that one can do it.

soy posted:

This totally ignores the pilots corroborating first hand optical eyeball observations but is still interesting. Also ignores the radar operators who saw these things moving at absurd speeds and then had their data scrubbed.[/url]

Was the part about the radar from the message board posts about this back in 2015, before it was all officially revealed in 2017?

Either way, yeah, the Nimitz is a similar but much more detailed story; the Princeton, part of the strike group, reported an unidentified radar blip roughly 100 miles off the coast of San Diego. It directed two F/A-18 Super Hornets on training flights to investigate; they confirmed the object both visually and by radar.

The reported object was a ~40 foot long Tic Tac that was hovering just above the surface of the ocean and either churning the water or possibly interacting with a USO (Unidentified Submerged Object) that was doing the churning. As one of the Super Hornets spiraled down to get a closer look the Tic Tac started to spiral up, mirroring them. When the Super Hornet pilot aggressively dove at the Tic Tac it blew past them and out of sight at phenomenal speed.

With the UFO gone, the Princeton then gave the Super Hornets a waypoint to resume their training flight. While flying to that waypoint, the Super Hornets were notified by the Princeton the loving Tic Tac had reappeared and was waiting for them at their destination. By the time they reached the waypoint to try to get another look at the UFO it had disappeared again and the Super Hornets returned to the Nimitz.

A second flight was sent up later with the ATFLIR pod and managed to capture some video of the UFO as it was still in the area. Or maybe it was a different UFO; one of the comments during the video is that a whole fleet of UFOs are visible on their radar.

Also now two of the crew in the jets during the Nimitz incident have been interviewed about the incident, which is part of what that recent History Channel series is.

soy posted:

Presumably they do have scientists investigating it or at least taking it seriously. https://fas.org/irp/dia/aatip-list.pdf and that's just the unclassified stuff.

Discounting all that, UFO evidence has continually come in at an ever higher rate since the 50s. https://ufodap.com/dwnlds/EvidenceforUFOs.pdf

At this point I think we're better off doing actual science, having non-classified systems monitoring for UFO and/or researching them and publishing findings openly. Thankfully due to commodification of micro-computers and basically all things it's possible to do this research without blessings of grognard academic grant pipelines.

I had just posted about this up topic; there's likely zero serious UFO research being done by the U.S. government, and it's quite possible there's never been any actual research on UFOs done by the U.S. government. Even back in the days of J. Allen Hynek and Project Bluebook he was told in no unclear terms that his purpose was to make up a plausible mundane explanation for every single UFO incident. The ones he had absolutely no mundane explanation for gave us the famously bad cover-up explanations of "swamp gas" and "Venus".

The guy that ran AATIP, Luis Elizondo, quit the program in disgust because he wasn't allowed to actually research UFOs like the Nimitz and GO FAST incidents. All current UFO research (and possibly going back the last two decades) has been done by private companies, mostly Bigelow Airspace, but now also the To The Stars Academy. UFOs seem to be spotted from the ground less, but pilots seem to be encountering them as much if not more than any time since WWII.

Just as of earlier this year the Navy is starting to relax its policy of "If you report a UFO you are never piloting another aircraft" and we might learn more about how often pilots see a UFO. Maybe civilian aviation will do the same.

Edit:

Lightning Knight posted:

Why would aliens observe Earth for roughly half a century clandestinely enough to avoid making contact intentionally but sloppily enough for random fucks to take pictures of them with regular cameras, and also that there is an elaborate conspiracy in the government to cover them up that no one has leaked in 50 years?

Well, are they being clandestine? If all they're doing is sending craft to look at us from the air, maybe they're just trying to minimize but not prevent being spotted. They do seem to glow a lot less, which would make them exceedingly difficult to spot without radar or by being in a plane near where they're flying.

An interesting thing that the History Channel special touches on is that there are two patterns of behavior that UFOlogists ascribe to sightings;

1. UFOs seem to observe our wars, starting from WWII with all of the foo fighters reported by pilots.

2. UFOs show up near nuclear facilities at a concerning rate.

Those two patterns also presumably make this all difficult as sightings in either case involve a healthy dose of paranoia, disinformation, and secrecy.

LtStorm fucked around with this message at 06:51 on Jul 9, 2019

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

soy posted:

This totally ignores the pilots corroborating first hand optical eyeball observations but is still interesting. Also ignores the radar operators who saw these things moving at absurd speeds and then had their data scrubbed.

This particular ufo was not seen with the naked eye, it was also (i don't think) corroborated with a radar. It's frequently muddled up with the other video that was released and was eyeballed by Cpt David Fravour. The analysis says nothing about that other video.

Flowers For Algeria
Dec 3, 2005

I humbly offer my services as forum inquisitor. There is absolutely no way I would abuse this power in any way.


Thanks to your description of the event, I’m quite confident that your tic-tac UFO was actually a nazi blimp from the moon, sent here to collect some water to replenish the reserves of the secret nazi moon base.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

LtStorm posted:

This isn't all of the footage that kicked off the current wave of UFO interest, just the weaker part of it. The other part was the 2004 USS Nimitz UFO incident. The GO FAST footage was more or less released alongside that but the GO FAST incident is just that video which was recorded off the east coast of the U.S. at an undetermined time by an F/A-18 Super Hornet equipped with a Raytheon AN/ASQ-228 ATFLIR Pod.

During the Nimitz incident footage happened to also be taken by an F/A-18 Super Hornet equipped with a Raytheon AN/ASQ-228 ATFLIR Pod also. In this footage the UFO appears to be flying at a fairly slow speed when the crew found and locked on to it. Unlike in GO FAST they have no problem keeping the camera centered; it locks on and stays focused on the target as you'd expect a targeting system to. The only time the ATFLIR pod loses its lock is at the end of the Nimitz video when the UFO exits stage right at a comical speed.
To be clear, the Nimitz video was not taken by the crew who say they saw the tic tac but by a second crew sent up later. The rapid acceleration could easily be caused by the plane banking, the huge zoom on the camera and the fact that the camera reached the end of its arc. In fact the camera zooms at the same moment of the "acceleration". In the video it's over 50 miles away and not close as the visual description the pilots provided implied. Personally I don't think the incident reported by the pilots and this video are related. But clearly mulitple pilots visually saw the water disturbance and the tic tac. And it pinged the radar.


LtStorm posted:

Which brings us back to the GO FAST footage; the crew appears to have trouble locking their ATFLIR on to the UFO. Is this because the object is moving very fast, as the crew claim, or very slow, as the debunker claims? We know from the Nimitz footage the ATFLIR can have its lock broken by an object moving at a hypersonic velocity. I don't know if that particular ATFLIR can lock onto stationary targets well; presumably there must be a configuration for ground attacks but I don't know if that one can do it.


Or it could be that the object is very small

Illuminti fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Jul 9, 2019

1glitch0
Sep 4, 2018

I DON'T GIVE A CRAP WHAT SHE BELIEVES THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS CHANGED MY LIFE #HUFFLEPUFF

Sodomy Hussein posted:

There are so many legitimate reasons not to talk to us, let alone visit us.

1) We can't escape Earth's confines, so we're quite unimportant on a galactic scale. It takes us extraordinary effort to reach our moon, and we rarely bother. Numerous logistical concerns make a manned mission to Mars effectively impossible.

2) Earth is squalid with poverty, inequality, and petty tyranny. According to the World Bank's quite rosy figures (compared to other sources), half the planet lives on less than $5.50 a day. Our democracies, such as they are, and arguably our most advanced form of government, are young, unstable, and weak.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

3) As mentioned in the OP, our environment is probably poisonous to any aliens with remotely similar biology. Even to hostile aliens, we are probably inedible.

If aliens are monitoring us in secrecy or semi-secrecy, it may well be a The Day The Earth Stood Still situation to make sure we don't develop into an intergalactic leukemia that has to be glassed at the source.

I don't think aliens are visiting us, but I do have two pet theories that could explain how it looks the way it looks to us.

1. There is a weird version of the Prime Directive thing where they can't interfere until we utterly gently caress ourselves and then a clause is triggered where our social evolution and development becomes decided by them.

2. They aren't really interested in us at all and it's like jet fighters occasionally flying over an island of native people who don't know about the outside world. Sometimes the people see the jets, sometimes they don't, but the people in the jets don't particularly care, they're just doing something else. Maybe it's just a thing they're doing that doesn't involve us at all.

Just dumb speculation.

LtStorm
Aug 8, 2010

You'll pay for this, Shady Shrew!


Illuminti posted:

To be clear, the Nimitz video was not taken by the crew who say they saw the tic tac but by a second crew sent up later. The rapid acceleration could easily be caused by the plane banking, the huge zoom on the camera and the fact that the camera reached the end of its arc. In the video it's over 50 miles away and not close as the visual description the pilots provided implied. Personally I don't think the incident reported by the pilots and this video are related. But clearly mulitple pilots visually saw the water disturbance and the tic tac. And it pinged the radar.

Yes, two different interactions between Super Hornets and the UFO happened in the Nimitz incident; the first crews were the ones that made visual confirmation and flew at the UFO then had it show up at their waypoint.

The second crew launched a couple of hours after on the same day from the Nimitz and took the IR video from a distance.

As a note, the Nimitz had been reporting these UFOs on radar for a couple of weeks before this sighting happened; that day was just the first one they had jets in the air to send to investigate.

Illuminti posted:

Or it could be that the object is very small

An interesting idea! I wonder what the smallest lockable object is for a targeting system like the one involved in these incidents.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

LtStorm posted:



As a note, the Nimitz had been reporting these UFOs on radar for a couple of weeks before this sighting happened; that day was just the first one they had jets in the air to send to investigate.

Yeah that's very interesting, I can't find it but I'm fairly sure I read that they asked a ground radar station to confirm and they also saw them.

LtStorm posted:

An interesting idea! I wonder what the smallest lockable object is for a targeting system like the one involved in these incidents.

I guess at a minimum you would think they could lock on to a missile that could be mounted on a fighter. But you would also have to take into account that a missile would probably have a huge heat signature which might make it a lot easier to pick up.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Sodomy Hussein posted:

There are so many legitimate reasons not to talk to us, let alone visit us.

1) We can't escape Earth's confines, so we're quite unimportant on a galactic scale. It takes us extraordinary effort to reach our moon, and we rarely bother. Numerous logistical concerns make a manned mission to Mars effectively impossible.

2) Earth is squalid with poverty, inequality, and petty tyranny. According to the World Bank's quite rosy figures (compared to other sources), half the planet lives on less than $5.50 a day. Our democracies, such as they are, and arguably our most advanced form of government, are young, unstable, and weak.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/10/17/nearly-half-the-world-lives-on-less-than-550-a-day

3) As mentioned in the OP, our environment is probably poisonous to any aliens with remotely similar biology. Even to hostile aliens, we are probably inedible.

If aliens are monitoring us in secrecy or semi-secrecy, it may well be a The Day The Earth Stood Still situation to make sure we don't develop into an intergalactic leukemia that has to be glassed at the source.

These reasons never really made much sense to me. Imagine an anthropologist refusing to work with some native tribe because "ew, they are too far from the nearest McDonald's, they are too poor, and I could catch malaria over there!"

Seems more likely that they either wouldn't be able to maintain meaningful practicalcommunication, or consider contacting other species unethical, or consider alien life so unremarkable they could care less about talking with us.

ashpanash
Apr 9, 2008

I can see when you are lying.

If they exist, there's every reason to believe they'd be absolutely nothing like us.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

These reasons never really made much sense to me. Imagine an anthropologist refusing to work with some native tribe because "ew, they are too far from the nearest McDonald's, they are too poor, and I could catch malaria over there!"

Seems more likely that they either wouldn't be able to maintain meaningful practicalcommunication, or consider contacting other species unethical, or consider alien life so unremarkable they could care less about talking with us.

Actually it's 100 percent because American's say 'could care less' instead of 'couldn't care less'

ashpanash posted:

If they exist, there's every reason to believe they'd be absolutely nothing like us.

Actually no, no there's not. From everything we understand based on theories able to make very, very accurate predictions about the real world... there's a very good chance that they'd be carbon based life forms who make use of water and oxygen and who use nucleic acids. They would have evolved and have to have things like limbs capable of building technology and probably have to have been in an environment in which the use of fire was easy so no spacefaring alien squids or dolphin civilizations.

Exactly like us? Almost certainly not but totally and incomprehensibly different? Probably not.

Unoriginal Name
Aug 1, 2006

by sebmojo
Lol. Alien ethics. just deep well-thought out stuff

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Stoner Sloth posted:

Actually it's 100 percent because American's say 'could care less' instead of 'couldn't care less'


Actually no, no there's not. From everything we understand based on theories able to make very, very accurate predictions about the real world... there's a very good chance that they'd be carbon based life forms who make use of water and oxygen and who use nucleic acids. They would have evolved and have to have things like limbs capable of building technology and probably have to have been in an environment in which the use of fire was easy so no spacefaring alien squids or dolphin civilizations.

Exactly like us? Almost certainly not but totally and incomprehensibly different? Probably not.

We're not predicting what kind of life might develop on a distant planet, we're discussing what kind of organism or intelligence might conceivably come here from outside our own galaxy. If we use our present knowledge of physics as a starting point then, for various reasons well covered in the op, carbon based terrestrial life forms that evolved in a pattern reminiscent of our own seem like exceptionally unlikely candidates for a successful intergalactic civilization. The distances involved are effectively insurmountable.

There are two basic issues here: detecting our species and then travelling here to meet us. The first problem is well covered in the OP. As for the second problem, it gets a brief mention in most presentations of the Fermi paradox but I feel as though its a more substantial problem than most people recognize. We haven't been broadcasting for long enough to reach more than about 100 light in any direction from Sol and there's no reason to think most of what we've broadcast would be noticed assuming anyone is even listening. Besides, the Milk Way is more than 100,000 light years in diameter, meaning only a astonishingly small portion of our proportionately very small corner of the known universe has even had the possibility to realize we're here. Aliens might detect the existence of Earth and determine from a distance that it has the right circumstances for life but here too the number of planets or even star systems that are in position to observe the Earth is comparatively low.

The Fermi paradox is predicated on the idea that the universe should be teeming with aliens and that their absence is inherently suspicious, but we seem to actually lack the technology to even properly asses whether the universe is an empty void or a fecund cosmological jungle teeming with undetected life. There could be a million plus terrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way alone and it's not clear we'd ever be likely to discover them even if we were actively looking - even if we generously assume that they follow the exact same technological path of development as us and go from taming fire to communicating via radio in only a few hundreds or thousands of generations, and then proceed to be every bit as noisy as we are.

For an alien to be able to both detect and reach us, and for them to have the motivation to do so, they'd probably have to be nothing like us.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Helsing posted:

We're not predicting what kind of life might develop on a distant planet, we're discussing what kind of organism or intelligence might conceivably come here from outside our own galaxy. If we use our present knowledge of physics as a starting point then, for various reasons well covered in the op, carbon based terrestrial life forms that evolved in a pattern reminiscent of our own seem like exceptionally unlikely candidates for a successful intergalactic civilization. The distances involved are effectively insurmountable.

There are two basic issues here: detecting our species and then travelling here to meet us. The first problem is well covered in the OP. As for the second problem, it gets a brief mention in most presentations of the Fermi paradox but I feel as though its a more substantial problem than most people recognize. We haven't been broadcasting for long enough to reach more than about 100 light in any direction from Sol and there's no reason to think most of what we've broadcast would be noticed assuming anyone is even listening. Besides, the Milk Way is more than 100,000 light years in diameter, meaning only a astonishingly small portion of our proportionately very small corner of the known universe has even had the possibility to realize we're here. Aliens might detect the existence of Earth and determine from a distance that it has the right circumstances for life but here too the number of planets or even star systems that are in position to observe the Earth is comparatively low.

The Fermi paradox is predicated on the idea that the universe should be teeming with aliens and that their absence is inherently suspicious, but we seem to actually lack the technology to even properly asses whether the universe is an empty void or a fecund cosmological jungle teeming with undetected life. There could be a million plus terrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way alone and it's not clear we'd ever be likely to discover them even if we were actively looking - even if we generously assume that they follow the exact same technological path of development as us and go from taming fire to communicating via radio in only a few hundreds or thousands of generations, and then proceed to be every bit as noisy as we are.

For an alien to be able to both detect and reach us, and for them to have the motivation to do so, they'd probably have to be nothing like us.

Yeah pretty much. Kinda lolling at the amount of people ITT who expect aliens to be just us but with FTL travel.

The thing about aliens is that if you have to think on larger terms than the simple stuff you see in fiction, especially if you expect that we are visited by or interact with them. Our knowledge of and ability to manipulate time, the universe, and the structures of life is fairly limited.

As far as "lol why would an alien care about human standards of living (because we certainly don't!)?," and "wouldn't they want to conduct thorough anthropology?", that's even more presumptuous than presuming that they have no interest in our bullshit planet.

If the aliens are actually conducting anthropology and haven't yet made direct contact, that's not a good sign for what kind of esteem they hold us in.

Meanwhile, if you can't figure out why an alien would be interested in the general quality of human civilization, you're highlighting a strong potential reason they're not talking to us directly.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
"They may not care at all, or they may care a lot, or something between or neither", a statement of boldness befitting a sports commentator.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Sports tend to be defined by their extremely clearly cut rules and procedures, so much so that it's almost built into the definition. In a context where all the rules and variables are well known it is vacuous and trite to make such wishy washy statements.

A discussion of aliens and anything related to them is a completely different sort of conversation in which merely asking basic questions and then working through them without achieving any strong conclusions can still help develop our understanding. Not all discussions can or should be valued according to whether they produce strong predictions.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

Helsing posted:

We're not predicting what kind of life might develop on a distant planet, we're discussing what kind of organism or intelligence might conceivably come here from outside our own galaxy. If we use our present knowledge of physics as a starting point then, for various reasons well covered in the op, carbon based terrestrial life forms that evolved in a pattern reminiscent of our own seem like exceptionally unlikely candidates for a successful intergalactic civilization. The distances involved are effectively insurmountable.

There are two basic issues here: detecting our species and then travelling here to meet us. The first problem is well covered in the OP. As for the second problem, it gets a brief mention in most presentations of the Fermi paradox but I feel as though its a more substantial problem than most people recognize. We haven't been broadcasting for long enough to reach more than about 100 light in any direction from Sol and there's no reason to think most of what we've broadcast would be noticed assuming anyone is even listening. Besides, the Milk Way is more than 100,000 light years in diameter, meaning only a astonishingly small portion of our proportionately very small corner of the known universe has even had the possibility to realize we're here. Aliens might detect the existence of Earth and determine from a distance that it has the right circumstances for life but here too the number of planets or even star systems that are in position to observe the Earth is comparatively low.

The Fermi paradox is predicated on the idea that the universe should be teeming with aliens and that their absence is inherently suspicious, but we seem to actually lack the technology to even properly asses whether the universe is an empty void or a fecund cosmological jungle teeming with undetected life. There could be a million plus terrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way alone and it's not clear we'd ever be likely to discover them even if we were actively looking - even if we generously assume that they follow the exact same technological path of development as us and go from taming fire to communicating via radio in only a few hundreds or thousands of generations, and then proceed to be every bit as noisy as we are.

For an alien to be able to both detect and reach us, and for them to have the motivation to do so, they'd probably have to be nothing like us.

All this does is add to the improbability unless we picture them as magical space ghosts. Sure it's very unlikely any alien (or humans) will ever cross interstellar space but the fact is that any other physical creature is going to be faced with the same problems. So now it needs to be both an extremely unlikely life form combined with extremely unlikely technology. Not sure where that gets us.

It would still be more probably to imagine them as something more like us but with more advanced tech that uses principles we're not aware of than speculating that they're also something that we can't see any pathway for it to have survived or evolved.

Sodomy Hussein posted:

Yeah pretty much. Kinda lolling at the amount of people ITT who expect aliens to be just us but with FTL travel.

Kinda lolling at people expecting them to be something other than that since we've seen no evidence that such a thing is compatible with the energy requirements to develop intelligence or is even possible at the most fundamental level. Carbon is very common as is water and oxygen, further the properties of these elements makes them seemingly uniquely suited to be used by living organisms of any appreciable complexity.

Let's say they use a different metabolism even... it's hard to think of one that would give even 1/10th the useable energy than oxygen based respiration. Something that used sulphur would basically have to be eating continuously to live and that'd be a big drawback in terms of interstellar travel or even evolving to that point.

The only uses that silicon seems to have in terms of life forms is basically things like hardening carbon based lifeforms cells - it forms more rock like, simple compounds rather than the staggering complexity of carbon chemistry. Further we know the building blocks of things like proteins and nucleic acids form spontaneously throughout space and relatively simple RNA strands can be autocatalytic.

If the tech is so unlikely to develop in any form, why add to that with even more unlikely forms of life and then declare such traits 'necessary' when that simply hasn't been established?

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Stoner Sloth posted:

All this does is add to the improbability unless we picture them as magical space ghosts. Sure it's very unlikely any alien (or humans) will ever cross interstellar space but the fact is that any other physical creature is going to be faced with the same problems. So now it needs to be both an extremely unlikely life form combined with extremely unlikely technology. Not sure where that gets us.

It would still be more probably to imagine them as something more like us but with more advanced tech that uses principles we're not aware of than speculating that they're also something that we can't see any pathway for it to have survived or evolved.

Well yeah, that is more or less what I'm saying, if we're imagining an actual interstellar voyage then it seems more plausible that we'd encounter "magical space ghosts" than that we'd encounter a species similar to ourselves.

Alternatively, a species like ours might be the cradle civilization that produces some kind of functionally immortal synthetic intelligence that decides to dedicate its resources to reaching other star systems. I'm not sure where to locate a space-faring AI on the spectrum between "just like us" and "magical space ghosts" though.

Also, as bizarre as this will sound, given the extreme physical improbabilities required to traverse light years it might be almost as plausible to speculate that a genuinely alien not from our world craft might arrive from our own distant future rather than another star system. That's obviously an inherently crazy idea that violates a lot of known physics even harder than FTL travel, but then again we're very deep into speculative territory already.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

Helsing posted:

Well yeah, that is more or less what I'm saying, if we're imagining an actual interstellar voyage then it seems more plausible that we'd encounter "magical space ghosts" than that we'd encounter a species similar to ourselves.

Alternatively, a species like ours might be the cradle civilization that produces some kind of functionally immortal synthetic intelligence that decides to dedicate its resources to reaching other star systems. I'm not sure where to locate a space-faring AI on the spectrum between "just like us" and "magical space ghosts" though.

Also, as bizarre as this will sound, given the extreme physical improbabilities required to traverse light years it might be almost as plausible to speculate that a genuinely alien not from our world craft might arrive from our own distant future rather than another star system. That's obviously an inherently crazy idea that violates a lot of known physics even harder than FTL travel, but then again we're very deep into speculative territory already.

Well fair enough, a synthetic intelligence created by biological beings (which may still not even be a possible thing in reality) or even just biological beings that have managed to surpass evolutionary limitations just seem the more reasonable options though (there is nothing inherent that suggests physical functional immortality isn't achievable for any biological being with sufficient tech, no less likely than AI in that sense) though seem more plausible than energy beings or time travelers or even silicon based lifeforms and that kinda stuff, to me anyway.

Or than FTL for that matter, I don't believe it's likely to be possible - with sufficient knowledge and technology something like a floating world might be possible for living creatures to slowly travel collecting resources and improving their technology seems more plausible. Or for robots/synthetic intelligences that are sufficiently advanced time might well not mean much. Though again as you say it's also very deep into speculative territory that anything is fair game.

I just think that the assumption that biological beings are any less likely than more exotic alternatives is flawed reasoning imo. I think anything more exotic than robots created by biological beings or biological beings themselves is actually way less likely because it stacks improbabilities. Of course we don't know the limits of what is possible ultimately so we can't absolutely rule things out, but that's no reason to throw out what we do know so far as basis for understanding what things are more plausible and what are less so.

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN
Just to clarify: I totally agree that the most plausible alien life form in the universe would be some kind of carbon based life evolving on an Earth like planet and following a trajectory roughly similar to our own development. We already know this happened at least once, which is more than we can say for space ghosts.

But we're not talking about what species is most likely to evolve on another planet, we're specifically talking about what species is most likely to 1) evolve, 2) detect us and 3) visit us.

While criteria 1 is most likely to be fulfilled by a species akin to our own, I'd argue that requirements 2 and 3 are much more likely to happen if we're dealing with something truly inhumane and beyond our comprehension. The galaxy could be full of civilizations that fit criteria 1 and we'd probably never even know about it and there'd be no reason to expect them to visit. Any being or craft that manages to bridge that immense gulf is likely to be distinct from us in crucial ways.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

Helsing posted:

Just to clarify: I totally agree that the most plausible alien life form in the universe would be some kind of carbon based life evolving on an Earth like planet and following a trajectory roughly similar to our own development. We already know this happened at least once, which is more than we can say for space ghosts.

But we're not talking about what species is most likely to evolve on another planet, we're specifically talking about what species is most likely to 1) evolve, 2) detect us and 3) visit us.

While criteria 1 is most likely to be fulfilled by a species akin to our own, I'd argue that requirements 2 and 3 are much more likely to happen if we're dealing with something truly inhumane and beyond our comprehension. The galaxy could be full of civilizations that fit criteria 1 and we'd probably never even know about it and there'd be no reason to expect them to visit. Any being or craft that manages to bridge that immense gulf is likely to be distinct from us in crucial ways.

I would say we simply have no reason to expect a visit at all, but that if we did it would still be more likely to be either a synthetic intelligence or biological beings that had solved some of the problems of interstellar flight but I get your what you're saying.

It's just that there simply isn't any reason, from my point of view at least, to suggest that incomprehensible beings would be any more likely to solve criteria 2 and 3 than comprehensible ones with incomprehensibly better technology. What would make it more likely?

Stoner Sloth fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Jul 9, 2019

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Stoner Sloth posted:

I would say we simply have no reason to expect a visit at all, but that if we did it would still be more likely to be either a synthetic intelligence or biological beings that had solved some of the problems of interstellar flight but I get your what you're saying.

It's just that there simply isn't any reason, from my point of view at least, to suggest that incomprehensible beings would be any more likely to solve criteria 2 and 3 than comprehensible ones with incomprehensibly better technology. What would make it more likely?

Well, if they are like us, they share our limitations because they are operating on the same fundamental science (especially important regarding energy sources and consumption) and biology. Which means their ability to detect and visit us is likely as sucky as ours. Breaking away from our science and biology to bridge this gap is no simple thing and requires some elements that we fundamentally do not understand/possess and don't appear to be developing.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

Sodomy Hussein posted:

Well, if they are like us, they share our limitations because they are operating on the same fundamental science (especially important regarding energy sources and consumption) and biology. Which means their ability to detect and visit us is likely as sucky as ours. Breaking away from our science and biology to bridge this gap is no simple thing and requires some elements that we fundamentally do not understand/possess and don't appear to be developing.

Why would you assume that they're operating on the same fundamental science? An older civilization or merely one that took a radically different social track could have discovered scientific principles beyond what we have. They may have adapted themselves using biological science to remove many of our limitations, engineering and physical principles we don't know about could account for other limits.

Why would this be less likely than a being that is implausible to begin with also being beyond our limits (as well as not having unique limits due to their quirky make up that would equally prevent them from interstellar travel) in terms of being able to travel between stars?

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Stoner Sloth posted:

Why would you assume that they're operating on the same fundamental science? An older civilization or merely one that took a radically different social track could have discovered scientific principles beyond what we have. They may have adapted themselves using biological science to remove many of our limitations, engineering and physical principles we don't know about could account for other limits.

Under what scientific basis would they actually do this? This is effectively as speculative as presuming they are quasi-temporal synthetic space ghosts. If they are beyond our understanding, they are beyond our understanding.

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
I love The Great Filter because it's like Roko's Basilisk Nerd Sniping. The more you think about it the more you starting to think you've uncovered a lovecraftian conspiracy you weren't meant to know and you end up needing to take a break for a while to calm down.

Stoner Sloth
Apr 2, 2019

Sodomy Hussein posted:

Under what scientific basis would they actually do this? This is effectively as speculative as presuming they are quasi-temporal synthetic space ghosts. If they are beyond our understanding, they are beyond our understanding.

Because we can see a pathway which a sentient species might have biologically evolved and developed technology and scientific knowledge that surpassed ours? The space ghosts need to have that knowledge/technology/ability + have evolved/spontaneously been generated also on separate principles that are also beyond our understanding as well so it's two sets of unlikely things combined? It's combining two seemingly impossible things, seemingly impossible for separate and distinct reasons, and suggesting that's more likely than merely one seemingly impossible thing?

Like I'm not ruling them out completely I suppose but I don't get to how it's being suggested that this is MORE likely than a species evolving under ways we can more plausibly see that happening and then transcending the limits of our state of knowledge over time.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord
Humans having inconceivable culture and technology has been a pretty standard thing in just human history, let alone intergalactic history. Like right now is kinda unique that all the humans can generally bullet point outline what cultures and technology we have on earth. Most of history has been pretty wild with people not knowing what exists in the human world.

Luckyellow
Sep 25, 2007

Pillbug
I do think there's aliens life out there somewhere in space.

UFOs is a buncha of crap tho. There's not a single one that has ever visited us at all.

I strongly believe that because otherwise we collectively have to admit that Trump is a good leader since he went ahead and founded the Space Force even at the risk of being mocked. I refuse to even say that Trump has done a single good thing therefore there can't ever had been any UFOs mysteriously visiting us.

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Stoner Sloth posted:

Because we can see a pathway which a sentient species might have biologically evolved and developed technology and scientific knowledge that surpassed ours? The space ghosts need to have that knowledge/technology/ability + have evolved/spontaneously been generated also on separate principles that are also beyond our understanding as well so it's two sets of unlikely things combined? It's combining two seemingly impossible things, seemingly impossible for separate and distinct reasons, and suggesting that's more likely than merely one seemingly impossible thing?

Like I'm not ruling them out completely I suppose but I don't get to how it's being suggested that this is MORE likely than a species evolving under ways we can more plausibly see that happening and then transcending the limits of our state of knowledge over time.

We can't actually see that pathway, it's conjectural. "But what if they had science... but different?" isn't meaningfully different from "Lovecraftian Time God" for the purposes of the afore-mentioned (2) and (3).

As helsing said, carbon-based humanoids are more verifiably likely to exist, but beings that don't share our practical limitations are much more likely to detect and visit us. Right now the energy needed for deep space travel is pretty much incalculable, and our biology is not helping.

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Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Sodomy Hussein posted:

We can't actually see that pathway, it's conjectural. "But what if they had science... but different?" isn't meaningfully different from "Lovecraftian Time God" for the purposes of the afore-mentioned (2) and (3).


Almost all of human history was that way. That has been the normal state of existence for people. people a thousand miles away having utterly unshared cultural and technological principles. Not even in just “primitive” and “advanced” humans sharing the globe but people literally having whole branches of science the other advanced or primitive cultures knew nothing about. It’s more unusual a state we are all on the same page than it would be unusual to find out other people knew different things. Historically

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