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Who do you wish to win the Democratic primaries?
This poll is closed.
Joe Biden, the Inappropriate Toucher 18 1.46%
Bernie Sanders, the Hand Flailer 665 54.11%
Elizabeth Warren, the Plan Maker 319 25.96%
Kamala Harris, the Cop Lord 26 2.12%
Cory Booker, the Super Hero Wannabe 5 0.41%
Julian Castro, the Twin 5 0.41%
Kirsten Gillibrand, the Franken Killer 5 0.41%
Pete Buttigieg, the Troop Sociopath 17 1.38%
Robert Francis O'Rourke, the Fake Latino 3 0.24%
Jay Inslee, the Climate Alarmist 8 0.65%
Marianne Williamson, the Crystal Queen 86 7.00%
Tulsi Gabbard, the Muslim Hater 23 1.87%
Andrew Yang, the $1000 Fool 32 2.60%
Eric Swalwell, the Insurance Wife Guy 2 0.16%
Amy Klobuchar, the Comb Enthusiast 1 0.08%
Bill de Blasio, the NYPD Most Hated 4 0.33%
Tim Ryan, the Dope Face 3 0.24%
John Hickenlooper, the Also Ran 7 0.57%
Total: 1229 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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RottenK
Feb 17, 2011

Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

HootTheOwl posted:

Biden is still in the lead, and is still the number one candidate amongst those who think "beating Trump" is the number one issue. You guys can try to disaggregate name recognition and electability all you want.

the kind of people who's understanding of politics leads to thinking that "beating trump" is the number one issue are a big part of how you got trump in the first place

and if they're not beaten back they will also be part of how you get a fascist worse than trump after the dems squander the popularity bump they got from having trump in the office in attempts to be reasonable moderate centrists


every time i think that copmala can't be a bigger piece of poo poo that i already think she is something like this comes out to surprise me

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Remember that when people find out you can keep your doctor under MFA polling for MFA shoots up.


Of course, the AMA and its evil pals will certainly do their best to lie and claim all doctors will leave the USA if we get MFA, but why pre-concede to their lies?

Marxalot
Dec 24, 2008

Appropriator of
Dan Crenshaw's Eyepatch

RottenK posted:

every time i think that copmala can't be a bigger piece of poo poo that i already think she is something like this comes out to surprise me

People keep getting mad when we say it, but what qualifies for the "center right" in this country is filled with absolute blood sucking psychopaths.


Speaking of which, debate night!

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


i feel like if biden collapses it's gonna be monkey paw poo poo and harris surges ahead.

RottenK
Feb 17, 2011

Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

Groovelord Neato posted:

i feel like if biden collapses it's gonna be monkey paw poo poo and harris surges ahead.

she's probably still less awful than joe but a competition between biden and the cop is a case of choosing how bloody you want your diarrhea to be

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

eke out posted:

there's a lot of bad questioning on this subject, in particular, or at least dishonest framing of the data we have.

like, as you point out, people say they like their coverage but that doesn't mean they like their insurer, or like that their coverage is tied to their employer — in fact, it's pretty easy imagining a lot of people (especially college-educated democratic voters in white collar jobs) are quite content with their current coverage but unhappy with a system that could strip it from them at any minute. this ambiguity is seized upon by the center to claim that MFA would be unpopular, but rarely followed up by mentioning that people like medicaid/medicare even more when you ask them about it

I actually like the Gallup polling (like what you linked) in that it's one of the few sources that routinely asks about care, about coverage, and about cost as separate questions. To your point, hacks swarm this polling data like flies and use it to justify all sorts of inane takes. And in Biden's case, his entire healthcare donation generating mechanism platform. In the situation you mention and the poll you linked, it is reasonable assume to that there is substantial loss aversion. Biden and your shillier types (Chait, particularly) use this as proof that MFA is a nonstarter. Bruenig tends towards what I read as your position (though I find his first two switching pain arguments as drenched in bad faith and motivated reasoning as Chait's), that this means people are likely to favor a system that promises to eliminate that risk, churn, and uncertainty.

For my part, i'm just intensely skeptical of any discussion about the polling and favorability of MFA that doesn't address the widespread public misconceptions that form the foundation of those numbers. At some point MFA will have to stand on its own as the singlepayer entity that it is, rather than the multipayer UHC that the majority of poll respondents believe it to be. As I mentioned, and King of Solomon notes, there are a lot of misconceptions that are dragging down MFA so there's a lot of room for growth and this isn't just (or necessarily) a negative. It also means convincing the majority of people that it'll be better than what they have. As someone who favors UHC and would love Single Payer, even I blanch at the power it hands to the next Tom Price and that comes from a place of knowledge and specific distrust. Contrast that with the continually degrading faith in and general distrust of government and I think it's a much tougher battle than people give it credit for.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Marxalot posted:

It takes a sundowning republican* to defeat a sundowning republican!



https://twitter.com/scottdesno/status/1155988402614837252

*or a sociopathic cop I guess idk

my loving god

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011


Ah so it wasn't a self-fulfilling prophecy, thanks for clearing that up

E: if anything it was a self-negating prophecy, most of the postmortems believe that the perception of inevitability actually hurt her in the general because
-combined with her massive unpopularity it made reluctant voters who didn't like Trump feel that she couldn't lose so there was no point taking off work and waiting in line just to vote for another Wall Street neocon, and
-her own team was convinced that she couldn't lose the electoral college so they spent their final push running up the popular vote to increase her legitimacy in an office they thought she had already won.

Ironically, if people had thought she wasn't inevitably electable she almost definitely would have won

VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 15:28 on Jul 30, 2019

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Paracaidas posted:

I actually like the Gallup polling (like what you linked) in that it's one of the few sources that routinely asks about care, about coverage, and about cost as separate questions. To your point, hacks swarm this polling data like flies and use it to justify all sorts of inane takes. And in Biden's case, his entire healthcare donation generating mechanism platform. In the situation you mention and the poll you linked, it is reasonable assume to that there is substantial loss aversion. Biden and your shillier types (Chait, particularly) use this as proof that MFA is a nonstarter. Bruenig tends towards what I read as your position (though I find his first two switching pain arguments as drenched in bad faith and motivated reasoning as Chait's), that this means people are likely to favor a system that promises to eliminate that risk, churn, and uncertainty.

yeah lol i'm pretty sure my point about how people are asked if they like their "coverage," which is a poor proxy for whether they support the current system at large, is literally something i read from Matt, but I couldn't find it on PPP to link (maybe it's also in jacobin)

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004

I’m looking forward to seeing how Warren differentiates/attempts to surpass Bernie from the Left.

Both need to lock down the same base as quickly as possible to be prepared to draw in Biden’s inevitable demise-votes.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

RottenK posted:

the kind of people who's understanding of politics leads to thinking that "beating trump" is the number one issue are a big part of how you got trump in the first place

Great. They still vote, and if media narratives didn't matter we'd be in a much different world. Being labeled electable makes you electable. Winning is evidence of your capability to win. It's tautologically obvious that I have to keep shaking my head everytime the thread pretends otherwise.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
It's great that the democratic establishment has decided to go full on lying about M4A, with a side salad of xenophobia (lot's of them are adding the "Bernie will kick people off their insurance to pay for illegal aliens," Rahm Emanuel among them).

BENGHAZI 2
Oct 13, 2007

by Cyrano4747

HootTheOwl posted:

Great. They still vote, and if media narratives didn't matter we'd be in a much different world. Being labeled electable makes you electable

Editors note 2016 excepted

The Muppets On PCP
Nov 13, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

joepinetree posted:

It's great that the democratic establishment has decided to go full on lying about M4A, with a side salad of xenophobia (lot's of them are adding the "Bernie will kick people off their insurance to pay for illegal aliens," Rahm Emanuel among them).

republicans in disguise

Marxalot
Dec 24, 2008

Appropriator of
Dan Crenshaw's Eyepatch

BENGHAZI 2 posted:

Editors note 2016 excepted

Also 2004 with Kerry

Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008

joepinetree posted:

It's great that the democratic establishment has decided to go full on lying about M4A, with a side salad of xenophobia (lot's of them are adding the "Bernie will kick people off their insurance to pay for illegal aliens," Rahm Emanuel among them).

Rahm got glowing quotes on Fox News. What an utter piece of poo poo.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

HootTheOwl posted:

Being labeled electable makes you electable.

I'm impressed that you're able to post from a universe where Hillary is president and her reelection is assured, have you figured out how to pass matter through the portal because I want out

Oh Snapple!
Dec 27, 2005

VitalSigns posted:

I'm impressed that you're able to post from a universe where Hillary is president and her reelection is assured, have you figured out how to pass matter through the portal because I want out

He didn't say the label was accurate. Pretty sure he's just talking narratives.

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

Bernie is very good you guys

https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1156212374866710528?s=20

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

CelestialScribe posted:

What does this thread think about the political expediency of offering a Medicare option that lets people keep private insurance, given the idea of replacing private insurance doesn't poll well?

Even if people come to love it later, why burden electability by demanding all or nothing?

What gets lost by allowing people to buy in over time? (I know Bernie's bill has a buy in period).

Just look at how well "if you like your plan, you can keep it" worked out for Obamacare. Not only did the plan end up with dismal support levels despite that, but it proved to be false, as most existing plans weren't able to survive under post-ACA conditions and were quickly terminated and replaced - which caused a major disruption to consumers' lives and coverage and created even more resentment toward Obamacare.

Similarly, having a real public option that coexists with the private insurance industry as it currently exists is, in the long run, impossible. They'll weaken or erode each other until one ultimately collapses. So whenever a politician promises a public option that leaves the private market in place, they're lying. And if they're going to lie anyway, they might as well tell good lies, instead of watering everything down and insisting that they have to do it because they're the realistic pragmatic candidate.

Ultimately, the whole argument is just a reminder of the many ways in which the wealthy elites in Dem leadership are out of touch with the voters. Even the best-case scenario of "I'll promise to keep private insurance, but make the public option so strong that it puts private insurance out of business and leads to backdoor single-payer" isn't some kind of impressive political strategy, it's just the standard "technically true" lying that's beloved by lawyers and used car salesmen but comes off as a special kind of slimy to everyone who wasn't raised on Harvard Debate Club rules.

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

Now that's how you get votes

Heck Yes! Loam!
Nov 15, 2004

a rich, friable soil containing a relatively equal mixture of sand and silt and a somewhat smaller proportion of clay.

this is, not good.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene

CelestialScribe posted:

What does this thread think about the political expediency of offering a Medicare option that lets people keep private insurance, given the idea of replacing private insurance doesn't poll well?

this is a moot question because outlawing private insurance doesn't actually need to happen. nobody had to outlaw buggy whips to get people to drive cars around

people should just be handed a comprehensive health care package at no cost. then, any potential situation where someone would want to supplement their insurance external to medicare is a failing of medicare, and the solution is to provide coverage for whatever that supplement covers

trying to purposely ban private insurance is, at best, lovely PR to save the money of people with terminal magabrain

ofc that's all a compromise solution to begin with, as the entire concept of health insurance is poo poo garbage for idiot babies and should be outlawed entirely

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

this is, not good.

source your quotes

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The attacks on Bernie are getting dumber somehow

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1156180284330663936?s=21

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018

https://twitter.com/ParkerMolloy/status/1156237556188680197?s=20

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

The attacks on Bernie are getting dumber somehow

Krugman has always struck me as one of the slimier Democratic pundits, since I get the distinct impression that, somewhere along the line, he made the conscious choice to be bad for personal enrichment. Most of these people probably conflated "what's good for me personally" with "what's good for the country" at some point during their lives, but I think Krugman knows what he's doing.

Pinky Artichoke
Apr 10, 2011

Dinner has blossomed.

Bernie's fan club is loving thin-skinned. Critiquing the content of a fundraising email is not an "attack on Bernie."

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Pinky Artichoke posted:

Bernie's fan club is loving thin-skinned. Critiquing the content of a fundraising email is not an "attack on Bernie."

So, let me get this straight:

"you can call it anything you want, but you can't call that medicare for all" is an unforgivable smear.

saying that Bernie is smearing and misrepresenting Kamala and that exemplifies eveything that is wrong with his campaign, not an attack, and in fact if you think its an attack you are thin skinned.

Is that your very smart take on this?

Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008

Krugman was one of Obama's policy booster, AFAIK. He hasn't even hopped on the "neo-Keynesianist" train like Danni Roderik and others.

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018





Eschenique posted:

He also says that global warming will be solved by the market because when things get bad enough. The rich will mobilize to save their own asses and in doing so the world powers will shift towards green policies in record time.
The problem with this thinking is that it assumes that human beings can solve all problems, once they try. It completely precludes the notion that we could gently caress the climate so badly that there is no way to fix it no matter how many resources the capitalists throw at it. It's also solving the tragedy of the commons by simply waving a hand and claiming that, once the problems gets bad enough, people will magically start behaving in completely different ways. History is rife with examples of groups of people driving right off a loving cliff even when the inevitable result of their actions was obvious to everyone - both in-group and out.

I like Mark Blythe (and full disclosure I am responding only to your summary of the video - I haven't watched it yet), but this seems to miss the mark.

btw I hope you saw my apology to you earlier

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1156250710893162497

This is just very worrying. It's feeling like 2016.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Ytlaya posted:

Krugman has always struck me as one of the slimier Democratic pundits, since I get the distinct impression that, somewhere along the line, he made the conscious choice to be bad for personal enrichment. Most of these people probably conflated "what's good for me personally" with "what's good for the country" at some point during their lives, but I think Krugman knows what he's doing.

Or maybe he just disagrees with you.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Pembroke Fuse posted:

Krugman was one of Obama's policy booster, AFAIK. He hasn't even hopped on the "neo-Keynesianist" train like Danni Roderik and others.

It's important to distinguish between neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian.

Neo Keynesianism is fully compatible and in fact directly related to neoliberalism. Greg Mankiw is a neo-keynesian.

Post-Keynesians are the people like Kelton and the MMT folks.

So Krugman is full on Neo-Keynesian. It's just that Neo--Keynesianism isn't really left wing.

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

Pinky Artichoke posted:

Bernie's fan club is loving thin-skinned. Critiquing the content of a fundraising email is not an "attack on Bernie."

"Bernie's fan club is loving thin-skinned," I say as I critique a twitter post for using a word I don't like to accurately describe something.

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene

MSDOS KAPITAL posted:

The problem with this thinking is that it assumes that human beings can solve all problems, once they try. It completely precludes the notion that we could gently caress the climate so badly that there is no way to fix it no matter how many resources the capitalists throw at it.

the humanity ending disease could already be incubating in the lungs of a permafrost researcher

awooga

Falstaff
Apr 27, 2008

I have a kind of alacrity in sinking.

joepinetree posted:

So Krugman is full on Neo-Keynesian. It's just that Neo--Keynesianism isn't really left wing.

A lot of people kinda thought it was back during the Bush years, which is when Krugman made his reputation. He got a lot of attention criticizing Bush and Greenspan's economic policies back then, so a lot of people imagined him to be further left than he actually ever was. Though I think the aura that was projected onto him has mostly faded.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Krugman was also a fierce opponent of austerity and debt panic during the recession. That view was depressingly rare in the mainstream. He was very hard on Obama’s attempts to lower deficits and (especially) cut entitlements. He called the stimulus too small, loudly and repeatedly. He was against almost of all of Obama’s economic feints to the right.

I don’t know what his bugaboo is with single payer but generally speaking he’s on the party’s left.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Jul 30, 2019

plogo
Jan 20, 2009
Krugman liked some of Obama's policies, disliked others. He thought the stimulus was much too small from the get go and he was skeptical about QE, for example.

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Pembroke Fuse
Dec 29, 2008

joepinetree posted:

It's important to distinguish between neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian.

Neo Keynesianism is fully compatible and in fact directly related to neoliberalism. Greg Mankiw is a neo-keynesian.

Post-Keynesians are the people like Kelton and the MMT folks.

So Krugman is full on Neo-Keynesian. It's just that Neo--Keynesianism isn't really left wing.

This is a good distinction. I may have mischaracterized Danni then, who I believe is closer to being a post-Keynesian.

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