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Obliterati posted:Tonight in 'the Empire never ended': This makes me think Ireland really does need a border wall. To keep the Brits out after brexit.
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Aug 2, 2019 11:15
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:What minority group is going to get blamed first when it becomes clear that Brexit was a failure all fault will rest upon the irish, the germans, and labour (who are antisemitic)
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Aug 2, 2019 11:36
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Oh my god what if it was THE countdown clock.
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Aug 2, 2019 11:45
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Ape Fist posted:Oh my god what if it was THE countdown clock. there will be adequate consonants
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Aug 2, 2019 11:50
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so is the Tories having only a 1 person majority now a kinda good thing or just a tease for now?
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Aug 2, 2019 12:44
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Zmej posted:so is the Tories having only a 1 person majority now a kinda good thing or just a tease for now? Its not like they have any other policies they want to pass other than Brexit so parliament is just doing basic keeping the lights on legislation until the next Brexit meltdown.
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Aug 2, 2019 13:05
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Zmej posted:so is the Tories having only a 1 person majority now a kinda good thing or just a tease for now? It might not be relevant anymore. If no new deal's been brokered by the end of october, there'll be another gathering for another extension. If Boris goes in all "no extension needed, we're doing this the hard way" then I'm pretty sure that's the end of it, and brexit's on.
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Aug 2, 2019 13:29
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The door to my But House is always open
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Aug 2, 2019 14:20
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An extension would gently caress Johnson but its be a victory for him if he manages to get the EU to let him "renegotiate" and ofc he's gonna have the full backing of the media carrying water for anything he does
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Aug 2, 2019 14:31
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oliwan posted:The door to my But House is always open Do you charge much rent, or is this a co-op situation?
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Aug 2, 2019 14:32
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the big thing is if the tory whip loses another MP they have no on-paper majority for confidence motions etc. it is likely that they can get another couple of votes from independents to shamble on, but the tory back bench has an absolutely staggering amount of power at the moment and that's going to be a problem when it comes to e.g. passing a budget or any sort of mildly controversial legislation
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Aug 2, 2019 14:39
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Dance Officer posted:It might not be relevant anymore. If no new deal's been brokered by the end of october, there'll be another gathering for another extension. If Boris goes in all "no extension needed, we're doing this the hard way" then I'm pretty sure that's the end of it, and brexit's on. I think something major would have to give before they gathered for an extension. The current strategy seems to be to drive hell for leather towards no deal in the hopes that the EU backs down and takes the backstop off the table. Boris can only hope for that to work if the EU really believes he'll go through with no deal, which means there can't be any outcomes other than no deal or no backstop. Close your eyes and hit the accelerator and hope the other guy blinks first. If something does give and there is another extension then Boris' premiership is as dead as Theresa's. He'll be trapped in the same situation she was with no credibility, no support and no clear objective, probably cycling extensions until Article 50 is revoked.
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Aug 2, 2019 14:40
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Yeah it would loving own but Boris isn't the sort to give in to that and would possibly even call an election to ensure there was no government in place to approve an extension.
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Aug 2, 2019 14:56
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also yeah he's hoping that the EU caves, which i'm pretty sure they won't. there is almost certainly a plan in place for shaping what happens if they don't, but it is very difficult to see what the hell that would entail - an immediate GE before crashing out to get a mandate for no deal? after crashing out? i'm glad i'm not a lab or lib trying to make a strategy here, it's completely chaotic and depends on the inner workings of what is basically a criminal conspiracy at the heart of government
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Aug 2, 2019 14:56
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Hentai Jihadist posted:An extension would gently caress Johnson but its be a victory for him if he manages to get the EU to let him "renegotiate" and ofc he's gonna have the full backing of the media carrying water for anything he does I will be really disappointed in the UK media if there isn't a front page shot of the DDay beach landing with Boris' head on an allied soldier, and Merkel/Varadkar/Macron/Verhofstadt on the bunkers in the distance.
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Aug 2, 2019 15:02
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Squizzle posted:all fault will rest upon the irish, the germans, and labour (who are antisemitic) Brexit's going to be like 1880s Chicago
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Aug 2, 2019 15:06
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V. Illych L. posted:also yeah he's hoping that the EU caves, which i'm pretty sure they won't. there's been enough unlikely poo poo happening in the past few years that I wouldn't rule it out. at least mentally brace yourself for the possibility of Boris achieving unlikely victory at the 11th hour, backstop off the table and a free trade deal, union flags and rum punch and guaranteed tory rule for everyone.
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Aug 2, 2019 15:06
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V. Illych L. posted:also yeah he's hoping that the EU caves, which i'm pretty sure they won't. there is almost certainly a plan in place for shaping what happens if they don't, but it is very difficult to see what the hell that would entail - an immediate GE before crashing out to get a mandate for no deal? after crashing out? What would the EU caving even look like?
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Aug 2, 2019 15:11
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genericnick posted:What would the EU caving even look like? They'd have to hang Ireland out to dry and agree to humour this imaginary technological solution, which would be EU suicide imo e: doesn't make it impossible, but the UK is essentially demanding the EU shoot themselves in the foot
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Aug 2, 2019 15:14
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genericnick posted:What would the EU caving even look like? including some unilateral withdrawal mechanism from the backstop, as far as i can tell this would give the british a big ole gun to point at the single market, though, and if would severely piss off several member countries, which is why i don't think it'll happen. though you never know for sure with the EU, i can't see them doing so costly in the medium term
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Aug 2, 2019 15:15
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Brexit's going to be like 1880s Chicago more like 1871 chicago
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Aug 2, 2019 15:21
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The trick Boris has up his sleeve is that he is fully willing to throw money at the problem in the way May and Spreadsheet Phil weren't This is doubly dangerous because it means they can cover up the worst issues of no-deal in the short term and have an excuse to cut everything (further) to the bone when the deficit balloons
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Aug 2, 2019 15:24
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Squizzle posted:more like 1871 chicago "A donation from the United Kingdom spurred the establishment of the Chicago Public Library, a free public library system, a contrast to the private, fee for membership libraries common before the fire." 
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Aug 2, 2019 16:31
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apologies for posting the Spectator but this abomination of an Op Ed came up in my news feed and I had to share it: Europeans have started to change their minds on brexit Christopher Caldwell posted:Varadkar warned that a no-deal Brexit would make Irish unification more likely. On the same principle you could just as easily argue it would lead to British unification. The common thread of everything Ireland has done in the past ten years has been to leave behind its paired obsessions of national unity and national culture. Clearly Ireland now wishes to be brought under the moral tutelage of more modern, more secular, more capitalistic powers. London is a more logical and convenient choice for that role than Brussels. This would require forgetting a lot of history, but of course forgetting history is what ‘European values’ are all about. Where do these people get the gall. The absolute delusion of these cunts, they are living in a fantasy world where London sets the policy, and Dublin and Brussels just have to follow. The wanker even ends the piece with a quote from Ian Smith: quote:For the EU, a confrontation summed up best not by Boris Johnson but by Iain Duncan Smith: ‘The days of supplication are over.’ An excellent model for post-Brexit Britain: Rhodesia. Yeah that's a normal opinion edit: jesus christ looking at this guys bio he's american  but. . . WHY. . . I bet this guy is one of those dorks who had a mini-cooper with a Union Jack on the hood.
Squalid has issued a correction as of 16:57 on Aug 2, 2019 |
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Aug 2, 2019 16:50
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quote:the moral tutelage of [...] more capitalistic powers omg 
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Aug 2, 2019 17:06
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It's weird because the spectator is definitely capable of sympathising with non-brits
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Aug 2, 2019 17:16
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Gum posted:It's weird because the spectator is definitely capable of sympathising with non-brits lol I had forgotten about Taki.
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Aug 2, 2019 17:23
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Squalid posted:apologies for posting the Spectator but this abomination of an Op Ed came up in my news feed and I had to share it: He's a oval office, but partly right that all of Ireland is at risk at being brought under British control. In a no-deal scenario, if an effective border can't be set up (lol) then the EU is going to be tempted to cut Ireland loose to maintain the integrity of the single market, by setting up customs checks on goods and I guess border controls for people too between Ireland and Europe. Which I'm thinking is not going to be received well by the Irish. edit: going to get real wild if this results in actual violence between the Irish police/military as they try to set up a border so the EU will let them stay in, and some kind of new IRA. Ramrod Hotshot has issued a correction as of 17:39 on Aug 2, 2019 |
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Aug 2, 2019 17:35
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what i don't get about these people is they all seem to think there's One Neat Trick to Stay in the Customs Union: Brussels HATES it!!! If they just posture and swagger enough the world will inevitably cave. It's all fantasy though: Ireland isn't going leave the EU for the UK's sake, no matter the economic consequences, because the issue is more to them than simple economics, just as it is for the Brexiteers. The EU isn't going to cave on free movement. Nothing the UK does can change this. Are they just pretending otherwise and don't give a drat about the consequences? Or are they really so deluded as to believe they can dictate policy to the rest of Europe? What on earth do they think they are doing? When the UK economy contracts 5% in the immediate aftermath of an exit with no-deal, what are they going to say then? When it costs everyone in Britain 1000 euro in the first year, how are they going to maintain this facade of self-importance? Ramrod Hotshot posted:He's a oval office, but partly right that all of Ireland is at risk at being brought under British control. In a no-deal scenario, if an effective border can't be set up (lol) then the EU is going to be tempted to cut Ireland loose to maintain the integrity of the single market, by setting up customs checks on goods and I guess border controls for people too between Ireland and Europe. Which I'm thinking is not going to be received well by the Irish. There might be some truth to this, but I think you are underestimating the ideological commitment of the Irish and big European leaders to the ideal of European unity. That is when you look at how they respond to Brexit, they don't just see it as a disagreement about economics. The ideal of a united European community really matters to the German and French leadership, and the Irish aren't just going to meekly submit to London's diktats. Consider the history of the Anglo-Irish Economic war in the thirties. The Irish leadership pretty much eviscerated their own economy over issues of sovereignty. There are things that really matters to nations more than just making numbers go up. Brexiteers admit acknowledge that's true when they talk about their own motives for leaving, but pretend everyone else is going to behave like a perfectly rational utility maximizing robot instead. That's not how this is going to play out. Squalid has issued a correction as of 17:53 on Aug 2, 2019 |
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Aug 2, 2019 17:42
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:He's a oval office, but partly right that all of Ireland is at risk at being brought under British control. In a no-deal scenario, if an effective border can't be set up (lol) then the EU is going to be tempted to cut Ireland loose to maintain the integrity of the single market, by setting up customs checks on goods and I guess border controls for people too between Ireland and Europe. Which I'm thinking is not going to be received well by the Irish. lol no its not becuase that would probably kill the EU
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Aug 2, 2019 17:46
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Squalid posted:what i don't get about these people is they all seem to think there's One Neat Trick to Stay in the Customs Union: Brussels HATES it!!! If they just posture and swagger enough the world will inevitably cave. It's all fantasy though: Ireland isn't going leave the EU for the UK's sake, no matter the economic consequences, because the issue is more to them than simple economics, just as it is for the Brexiteers. The EU isn't going to cave on free movement. Nothing the UK does can change this. Are they just pretending otherwise and don't give a drat about the consequences? Or are they really so deluded as to believe they can dictate policy to the rest of Europe? What on earth do they think they are doing? It's a combo of our political class being even stupider and miseducated than the average brit and taught that arrogance is a virtue, combined with the fact they won't suffer ant consequences for it. This is basically all the Oxford debate club to them, toffs jeering at each other to no effect then going to the pub to get poo poo faced or coked up
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Aug 2, 2019 17:49
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As for the economy contracting, the "smart" Tory gov imposed austerity for no reason and killed hundreds of thousands and impoverished more They have had no consequences whatsoever, at least this time there will be a segment of the population who thinks the pain is for a good reason
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Aug 2, 2019 17:51
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Jose posted:lol no its not becuase that would probably kill the EU Seems like they may not have a choice. In a no-deal it could come down to: a) put up a hard border in Ireland, which is a lot harder to do than b) put the border between Ireland and Europe c) ????????
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Aug 2, 2019 17:52
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Squalid posted:edit: jesus christ looking at this guys bio he's american There are a bunch of Americans who are still salty we got rid of nobility and believe that the system should be a hereditary meritocracy. They call themselves Republicans, in a bit of unconscious irony.
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Aug 2, 2019 17:53
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:He's a oval office, but partly right that all of Ireland is at risk at being brought under British control. In a no-deal scenario, if an effective border can't be set up (lol) then the EU is going to be tempted to cut Ireland loose to maintain the integrity of the single market, by setting up customs checks on goods and I guess border controls for people too between Ireland and Europe. Which I'm thinking is not going to be received well by the Irish. this will absolutely never happen
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Aug 2, 2019 17:53
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:He's a oval office, but partly right that all of Ireland is at risk at being brought under British control. In a no-deal scenario, if an effective border can't be set up (lol) then the EU is going to be tempted to cut Ireland loose to maintain the integrity of the single market, by setting up customs checks on goods and I guess border controls for people too between Ireland and Europe. Which I'm thinking is not going to be received well by the Irish. The EU would burn London to the ground to the cheers of the rest of the world before they'd let England take a sovereign state out unwillingly.
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Aug 2, 2019 17:55
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the insanely ignorant hot takes on Ireland are coming from inside the thread
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Aug 2, 2019 17:58
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Seems like they may not have a choice. In a no-deal it could come down to: d) hard border in Ireland, let the Irish and british deal with the insurgents.
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Aug 2, 2019 18:01
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Does a hard border breach GFA? I don't know what's in the GFA.
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Aug 2, 2019 18:02
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Squalid posted:There might be some truth to this, but I think you are underestimating the ideological commitment of the Irish and big European leaders to the ideal of European unity. That is when you look at how they respond to Brexit, they don't just see it as a disagreement about economics. The ideal of a united European community really matters to the German and French leadership, and the Irish aren't just going to meekly submit to London's diktats. Consider the history of the Anglo-Irish Economic war in the thirties. The Irish leadership pretty much eviscerated their own economy over issues of sovereignty. There are things that really matters to nations more than just making numbers go up. Brexiteers admit acknowledge that's true when they talk about their own motives for leaving, but pretend everyone else is going to behave like a perfectly rational utility maximizing robot instead. That's not how this is going to play out. What about Irish unity though? Any Irish government responsible for putting the border back and whatever violence may come with it has basically committed political suicide, for themselves and their party
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Aug 2, 2019 18:09
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