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rip your twenty-four cents if the economy collapses in the fall we won't be in recession according to this market. a recession is defined as two quarters of negative gdp growth, which means for you to be correct the economy must begin contracting right now; we're almost halfway done with q3 already.
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Aug 2, 2019 07:31
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imo castro wanes between debates. buy at .01 and sell at .02 during the one sick burn he gets next month
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Aug 2, 2019 07:34
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still got my bernie shares at 14, selling at 25. even if it's just him and kamala or joe down the home stretch, i imagine those still top out under 40
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Aug 2, 2019 09:18
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The biggest debate bump market had a wacky result. Based on their use of Rasmussen, Tulsi edges out Booker for the biggest bump ( 2.51% rounded up to a 3% gain over her prior 0% result). She wasn't among the contracts listed, so the field won and all contracts resolved No. Anyone playing the negative risk game made out like a bandit.
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Aug 2, 2019 23:36
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Rasmussen strikes again!
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Aug 2, 2019 23:41
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Vox Nihili posted:Flipping 1c shares up to 3c or something thereabouts? Sorry I never answered this months ago. I bet a lot of "long-shots" like will Sherrod Brown run, will Biden run, and cashed out about $15000 in late April. Since then I am about negative $500, even after recently getting pretty big wins on "Will Steyer make the debate" and "How many candidates will drop out before August 31". I have got pretty wrecked betting on polls, it's definitely a fool's game. Edit: I am currently bought in pretty heavy for "New Dem frontrunner" (Bernie @ 6c), "Next to dropout" (Biden @ 15c), and "Gabbard in Oct debate" (YES @ 50c) CassandraZara has issued a correction as of 19:39 on Sep 5, 2019 |
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Sep 5, 2019 19:34
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As long as this thread isn't totally dead, NC-09 was giving away money tonight.
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Sep 11, 2019 02:48
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it didn’t seem immediately obvious who would win, i thought. or was the market just wackily swinging?
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Sep 11, 2019 21:01
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abelwingnut posted:it didn’t seem immediately obvious who would win, i thought. or was the market just wackily swinging? Both. It was Ossoff 2.0. Bishop was trading in the 30's after the early vote dump depite all the analysis showing McReady had underperformed in that department.
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Sep 11, 2019 22:55
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Debate mention markets are back, baby! https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5870/Will-a-Houston-debate-candidate-mention-Sharpie https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5871/Will-a-Houston-debate-candidate-mention-mandatory-buyback Time to get degenerate!!!
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Sep 12, 2019 04:51
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Vox Nihili posted:Debate mention markets are back, baby! Made ~$500 on these, the mandatory buyback market in particular was hilarious.
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Sep 21, 2019 00:39
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Is there an entry for homeless people being forced into military conscription?
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Sep 23, 2019 23:32
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Mr. Dick posted:Is there an entry for homeless people being forced into military conscription? Not yet. Note: post below reserved for Tercio.
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Sep 24, 2019 22:37
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The CHUDs are getting frothy again and think Hillary is going to run. It's free real estate. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614/Will-Hillary-Clinton-run-for-president-in-2020
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Sep 27, 2019 06:57
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only trouble is that market won’t close for like another year
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Sep 27, 2019 19:04
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bawfuls posted:only trouble is that market won’t close for like another year Yep. The hope is that after the registration deadlines etc. pass it will trend to 99c or thereabouts. I already have my sell orders set.
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Sep 28, 2019 23:17
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I think today is a good day to bet NO on Bernie in this market https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5693/Which-of-these-Democrats-will-drop-out-next I previously had YES bets on both Biden and Harris, which I’m basically breakeven on after today’s news, but I think that this minor surgery is something that Bernie is going to bounce back from quickly.
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Oct 2, 2019 16:54
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Also a pretty good day to pick up some Bernie YES nomination shares. It was down as low as 5c on Wednesday, but still under 10c is a steal considering his strong fundraising. He will surely peak higher than that even if he doesn't win.
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Oct 5, 2019 19:35
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i say swears online posted:rip your twenty-four cents that's right, it's getting pretty late, exited @ 3.5c Vox Nihili posted:The CHUDs are getting frothy again and think Hillary is going to run. It's free real estate. some of the adjacent markets are hugely overvalued, probably because i'm guessing of the hilldawg https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2902/Will-the-2020-Democratic-nominee-for-president-be-a-woman that's 13c above Warren winning
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Oct 5, 2019 23:15
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Finally sold my “Will Hillary run” shares @ 21c, which I felt like an idiot for buying at 12c many months ago.
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Oct 9, 2019 17:33
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CassandraZara posted:Finally sold my “Will Hillary run” shares @ 21c, which I felt like an idiot for buying at 12c many months ago. Making money by flipping insane bargain bets up to crazy people is the best part of Predictit.
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Oct 9, 2019 20:35
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Vox Nihili posted:Making money by flipping insane bargain bets up to crazy people is the best part of Predictit. Mayor Pete.
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Oct 9, 2019 23:53
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Is there a way to edit your dashboard? I much preferred having the markets on my watchlist on the left side of the screen over seeing how other people did.
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Oct 14, 2019 16:43
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CassandraZara posted:Is there a way to edit your dashboard? I much preferred having the markets on my watchlist on the left side of the screen over seeing how other people did. Not that I am aware of.
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Oct 15, 2019 00:24
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bawfuls posted:Also a pretty good day to pick up some Bernie YES nomination shares. It was down as low as 5c on Wednesday, but still under 10c is a steal considering his strong fundraising. He will surely peak higher than that even if he doesn't win. hope everyone picked this up
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Oct 16, 2019 07:01
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vote for daddie bernie bitch
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Oct 17, 2019 02:14
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If anyone picked up Rick Perry to be the next to leave the White House when it was at $0.67 this morning it's now sitting at 93
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Oct 17, 2019 22:09
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picking up some Hillary yes for a laugh
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Oct 18, 2019 22:59
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Jenny Agutter posted:picking up some Hillary yes for a laugh Theres a thriving marketplace of people buying Hillary yes for cheap and flipping them upwards when the CHUD contingent stumbles upon the contract. High risk work, but their demand is loving insatiable.
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Oct 18, 2019 23:11
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I had huge wins over the weekend on both the “Post-debate RCP bump” and “Post-debate RCP decline” markets by just betting on the movement that had already happened, but I am definitely out before any actual post-debate polls come in (except for some fun long shots).
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Oct 21, 2019 07:36
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term This seems like free money
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Oct 28, 2019 06:35
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Jewel Repetition posted:https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term thanks. I'm gonna heavily invest in no 2019 impeachment to boost my capital, then go all in on this. hopefully the no price won't have dropped by then, but I'm not expecting it to since everyone holding yes shares must be completely irrational and not likely to budge
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Oct 29, 2019 21:22
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5913/How-many-articles-of-impeachment-of-Trump-will-the-House-pass-by-3-31 bracket zero should almost certainly crash to zero by january as well
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Oct 29, 2019 21:45
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Made $300 on the Kentucky margin of victory market for tonight. Looking at the Mississippi margin market and wondering if I should dive in.
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Nov 6, 2019 04:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Made $300 on the Kentucky margin of victory market for tonight. Looking at the Mississippi margin market and wondering if I should dive in. 
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Nov 6, 2019 07:41
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Indeed. Loaded for bear going into Louisiana.
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Nov 7, 2019 04:02
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Bloomberg’s entry today has helped my negative risk situation in the primary market. I’m now in the money for all outcomes aside from Biden/Pete/Bloomberg. Thanks Mike!
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Nov 7, 2019 23:45
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lol Bloomberg even with Bernie
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Nov 8, 2019 00:01
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I managed to max Bloomberg getting in at an average of 72c, it’s still available for 74c. He’s put in the time and money to qualify for the Alabama presidential primary, and if he spent $5000 doing that, he must file with the FEC within two weeks. edit: third name down http://aldemocrats.org/blog/qualified_candidates_for_march_3_2020_primary
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Nov 9, 2019 00:06
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CassandraZara posted:I managed to max Bloomberg getting in at an average of 72c, it’s still available for 74c. He’s put in the time and money to qualify for the Alabama presidential primary, and if he spent $5000 doing that, he must file with the FEC within two weeks. From the little digging I did before I cashed out (for a few bucks playing swings on No), the filing fee in Alabama is $2500. The petiton requirements are either 500 sigs statewide, or 50 sigs from each of the 7 congressional districts. Those are expensive signatures if he paid 2500 for them.
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Nov 9, 2019 01:14
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