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VitalSigns posted:And lol at the implication that the US or at least influential US companies don't profit from US interventions in Latin America. The US just installed all those brutal right-wing governments out of the goodness of their hearts right This constantly comes up and is amazing considering that mask is long gone. The liberal interventionist line must just still be drifting off pure momentum. BigFactory posted:China owns most of the Venezuelan debt, so they’re the ones who want to profit on this crisis. I can't tell if the crisis is Venezuelans being fed or Maduro being president here. China hasn't sanctioned or stopped food imports (if they exist) has it?
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Aug 15, 2019 01:09
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Homeless Friend posted:
Not that I know of but they clearly don’t want a new government in Venezuela that will default on its debts. They have an enormous investment in Venezuelan natural resources.
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Aug 15, 2019 01:19
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BigFactory posted:Not that I know of but they clearly don’t want a new government in Venezuela that will default on its debts. They have an enormous investment in Venezuelan natural resources. Then, it seems to me, they have little interest in prolonging the crisis since it could precipitate an intervention and a new government, or a deeper crisis but a government unable to service its debts properly. Crisis is pretty good for short term profiteers but I would imagine China primary interest is energy.
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Aug 15, 2019 01:31
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Apparently not wanting a starvation crisis and wanting Venezuela to have a stable economy is bad, somehow (because then Venezuela could pay off its foreign debt). Exacerbating a starvation crisis is a selfless act ofc. It's funny to see the narrative shift in realtime from "Maduro is starving Venezuela! Nothing else matters but food!" to "China is feeding Venezuela, which is bad!"
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Aug 15, 2019 01:44
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VitalSigns posted:Apparently not wanting a starvation crisis and wanting Venezuela to have a stable economy is bad, somehow only if the perfidious celestial does it, if it's brave yankee doodle dandies then it's fine
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Aug 15, 2019 01:48
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Homeless Friend posted:Then, it seems to me, they have little interest in prolonging the crisis since it could precipitate an intervention and a new government, or a deeper crisis but a government unable to service its debts properly. Crisis is pretty good for short term profiteers but I would imagine China primary interest is energy. They certainly don’t want a US backed government. And the US doesn’t want China and Russia dividing up a country in South America. And maduro’s a murderous, incompetent dictator. There are no good guys here.
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Aug 15, 2019 01:53
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VitalSigns posted:Apparently not wanting a starvation crisis and wanting Venezuela to have a stable economy is bad, somehow (because then Venezuela could pay off its foreign debt). China and Russia are standing in the way of the Venezuelan people removing Maduro and holding free elections so they don’t lose a few hundred billion. That’s fairly reprehensible.
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Aug 15, 2019 01:56
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Slanderer posted:
What stake do you have in all of this? You are calling him a worm and saying he wants bloodshed when he actually has extended family and friends that still live in VZ. Its not just a game of arguing side online for e-points for him. He went through food shortages. People are struggling and are at risk from dying from the current government, or even from other actors if the situation becomes worse. Its a bit disingenuous calling him a worm when you lived a privileged life and you are accusing him of not knowing what sacrifices are worth it or not. 536 fucked around with this message at 02:12 on Aug 15, 2019 |
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Aug 15, 2019 02:08
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feeding starving people is bad, when other countries do it to protect their investments, unlike when we starve people to protect ours
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Aug 15, 2019 02:08
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BigFactory posted:China and Russia are standing in the way of the Venezuelan people removing Maduro and holding free elections so they don’t lose a few hundred billion. That’s fairly reprehensible. Wait, how are they doing that exactly?
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Aug 15, 2019 02:19
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536 posted:What stake do you have in all of this? You are calling him a worm and saying he wants bloodshed when he actually has extended family and friends that still live in VZ. Its not just a game of arguing side online for e-points for him. He went through food shortages. People are struggling and are at risk from dying from the current government, or even from other actors if the situation becomes worse. Its a bit disingenuous calling him a worm when you lived a privileged life and you are accusing him of not knowing what sacrifices are worth it or not. Ok, but on the other hand he refuses to explain what course of action he actually wants beyond very vague statements but vehemently denies any possible action floated
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Aug 15, 2019 02:22
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BigFactory posted:China and Russia are standing in the way of the Venezuelan people removing Maduro and holding free elections so they don’t lose a few hundred billion. That’s fairly reprehensible. By "standing in the way" do you mean sending foreign aid, or something else
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Aug 15, 2019 02:29
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Neither China or Russia seemed to be willing to fight much for Venezuela when Trump was threatening to intervene
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Aug 15, 2019 03:05
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VitalSigns posted:By "standing in the way" do you mean sending foreign aid, or something else By sending aid they're standing in the way of the efforts to justify an US intervention
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Aug 15, 2019 03:16
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I can only speak from my peruvian perspective but even the communist/socialist parties here had to admit (some later than sooner) that yeah, Maduro's regime was catastrophically bad even before US sanctions; but the thing is, hawkish, overt american interventionism is seen as waaaaaay worse. Even Anti-Chavez/Maduro people were dismayed by Trump butting in because they knew it would be a mess and ta da!
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Aug 15, 2019 03:24
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brugroffil posted:Ok, but on the other hand he refuses to explain what course of action he actually wants beyond very vague statements but vehemently denies any possible action floated As opposed to the very solidly established Tankie Plan Of Ending the Venezuelan Crisis which consists of: ? There has never been a single coherent proposal as to how to end the Venezuelan crisis beyond "end sanctions". Ending the sanctions won't end the crisis because the crisis existed way before the sanctions, because the origin of the crisis is motherfucking Nicolas Maduro. Acknowledge this and maybe we can get off this loving loop. I don't deny anything. What you're proposing has already been attempted, and it failed. A general strike will not work, it will not work, get this, it will not work. There's been literally thousands of strikes during his presidency, Maduro can ride them out, it will not loving work. The result of a 6 month general strike by university teachers, was a 20% rise that left them under the salary that they had started with due to inflation. Also, get this, you know who called for a general strike? loving Juan Guaido. Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:No. He's the president. He was elected. The constitutional basis for Guaido's fake presidency is a load of horseshit. And I don't see why anyone would be willing to step down from power and not also be willing to hold a free and fair election they might lose. Oh gently caress off. He ran an election where he banned the main opposition party, where anybody that could've beaten him was forbidden from running, with an electoral council that faked a million votes in the Constituyente election. The constitutional framework for Guaido's presidency is all there, it's very literally in the constitution that the President of the National Assembly becomes president if the sitting president is considered to have abandoned his post. Why are you so quick to talk about things you don't know. Like god drat is it asking too much of you tankies to not adlib? To just stick to the facts? If you don't know don't improvise. punk rebel ecks posted:Fnox, what do you mean by "international pressure"? What do you want the United States and other countries to do to put pressure on the PSUV? International pressure means exactly that, apply pressure on Maduro to get him to quit or agree to reforms that would end the crisis, if at least for the moment. This is not a term I am making up, it's a core tenet for modern democracies, and it comprises both actions from international organizations such as the OAS, UNASUR or the UN and from other democracies in the region. A ton of measures have already been done by these organizations for that purpose, but Maduro is now beyond the point where he has to actually care about his people. So what is needed now is stronger action. More comprehensive action. If you remove the sanction preventing Maduro from accessing US financial markets, the only people benefiting from that will be Wall Street, like Goldman Sachs did in 2017 (They got paid in full by Maduro from the bonds they got, by the way, something something he's doesn't practice what he preaches). As to what exactly, it's hard to tell, it's hard to come up with something that will ease suffering yet hurt him. I like the idea of unconditional aid, enough to stave of the crisis for now, but nobody will do that for free, and he will never accept US aid. Maybe the correct avenue is to go to China, his benefactor, and engage with them in some form of arrangement. I don't know what would be the best action though. This is what I'm hoping the discussion would become. Not a whirlpool of loving drivel with raging tankies calling me "gusano" in a crosspost from CSPAM while sitting very comfortably in their American homes. An actual discussion on viable alternatives to military action, things that will motivate a change in the country, be it from Maduro doing something that at the very least stabilizes the economy enough for people to catch a breath, or that forces a change in government. fnox fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Aug 15, 2019 |
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Aug 15, 2019 06:43
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Offering a huge amount of real food/economic aid in exchange for democratic reform would be a possibly viable plan, but you yourself acknowledge that other countries aren't willing to do such a thing. The only form of international pressure that IS on the table that I'm aware of are sanctions, which don't seem like they will work to remove Maduro (although he HAS offered to do new presidential elections in exchange for sanctions relief, but for some reason the US does not find this acceptable) and covert or overt military intervention. Both of these forms of international pressure leave Venezuela in a worse state than it was before. What other forms of international pressure exist that other countries would be realistically willing to engage in? Kidnap Maduro and put him in a hydraulic press?
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Aug 15, 2019 07:18
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Zidrooner posted:Offering a huge amount of real food/economic aid in exchange for democratic reform would be a possibly viable plan, but you yourself acknowledge that other countries aren't willing to do such a thing. The only form of international pressure that IS on the table that I'm aware of are sanctions, which don't seem like they will work to remove Maduro (although he HAS offered to do new presidential elections in exchange for sanctions relief, but for some reason the US does not find this acceptable) and covert or overt military intervention. Both of these forms of international pressure leave Venezuela in a worse state than it was before. It's not for some reason, it's because of the CNE. You can't agree to just a reelection, you gotta agree to an election without the poo poo that made the original one fraudulent. As for what action to take, I think it's time to consider bringing China into the table, and getting them to make Maduro take action. This is hard, I will admit I have no idea on how to do it nor do I know if China would potentially agree to such a thing. But yeah, if the current course doesn't work, something new must be attempted. What is crucial to understand is that Maduro will not fix anything on his own, sanctions or not, as demonstrated by the 4 years prior to the sanctions where he unleashed a total catastrophe in the country.
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Aug 15, 2019 07:30
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fnox posted:As opposed to the very solidly established Tankie Plan Of Ending the Venezuelan Crisis which consists of: ? There has never been a single coherent proposal as to how to end the Venezuelan crisis beyond "end sanctions". Ending the sanctions won't end the crisis because the crisis existed way before the sanctions, because the origin of the crisis is motherfucking Nicolas Maduro. Acknowledge this and maybe we can get off this loving loop. You fundamentally misunderstand other posters' position, I think. It's the well evidenced belief that American involvement nearly universally makes things works and should be opposed. The idea that if you oppose historically awful US intervention, you must have some sort of alternate solution is just kinda silly.
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Aug 15, 2019 08:43
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look, yes, skewering this baby on a spit might be bad, but i dont see you offering any alternatives no, not skewering the baby is not a good enough plan i demand better
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Aug 15, 2019 10:18
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Tollymain posted:look, yes, skewering this baby on a spit might be bad, but i dont see you offering any alternatives Except that, this is not what happened. The one constant in 6 years of crisis is Maduro. Let’s put it in equally infantile terms so you can understand this. 2013 in Venezuela with Maduro: bad 2014 in Venezuela with Maduro: worse than 2013 2015 in Venezuela with Maduro: worse than 2014 2016 in Venezuela with Maduro: worse than 2015 2017 in Venezuela with Maduro + sanctions: worse than 2016 2018 in Venezuela with Maduro + sanctions: worse than 2017 2019 in Venezuela with Maduro + sanctions + further bullshit: worse than 2018 Hey here’s an idea for you all: what if we get rid of the US and Maduro? Would that finally be agreeable to you all or will any of you finally do your due diligence and investigate what happened in the country from 2013 to 2017 and how come the country depends more on imports despite imports being controlled by the government? Why did this socialist paragon make Venezuela a slave to foreign markets? brugroffil posted:You fundamentally misunderstand other posters' position, I think. It's the well evidenced belief that American involvement nearly universally makes things works and should be opposed. What I can’t understand is why that position comes with an approval of Maduro. Why? It makes no loving sense. They have to contort themselves so much to avoid the simple, rational explanation that the chavista government ruined the economy through corruption, bad policies and mismanagement, which they were able to sustain for so long due to high oil prices. fnox fucked around with this message at 11:23 on Aug 15, 2019 |
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Aug 15, 2019 11:20
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:Wait, how are they doing that exactly? By vetoing UN Security Council resolutions.
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Aug 15, 2019 12:36
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fnox posted:Oh gently caress off. He ran an election where he banned the main opposition party, where anybody that could've beaten him was forbidden from running, with an electoral council that faked a million votes in the Constituyente election. The constitutional framework for Guaido's presidency is all there, it's very literally in the constitution that the President of the National Assembly becomes president if the sitting president is considered to have abandoned his post. Why are you so quick to talk about things you don't know. I am well aware of what it says, and I know what the word abandonment means. But I'm not going to litigate that with you. You know the arguments against. You know that there ARE arguments against. Don't act like it's obvious. [quote="fnox" post=""497518487"] International pressure means exactly that, apply pressure on Maduro to get him to quit or agree to reforms that would end the crisis, if at least for the moment. This is not a term I am making up, it's a core tenet for modern democracies, and it comprises both actions from international organizations such as the OAS, UNASUR or the UN and from other democracies in the region. A ton of measures have already been done by these organizations for that purpose, but Maduro is now beyond the point where he has to actually care about his people. So what is needed now is stronger action. More comprehensive action. If you remove the sanction preventing Maduro from accessing US financial markets, the only people benefiting from that will be Wall Street, like Goldman Sachs did in 2017 (They got paid in full by Maduro from the bonds they got, by the way, something something he's doesn't practice what he preaches). As to what exactly, it's hard to tell, it's hard to come up with something that will ease suffering yet hurt him. I like the idea of unconditional aid, enough to stave of the crisis for now, but nobody will do that for free, and he will never accept US aid. Maybe the correct avenue is to go to China, his benefactor, and engage with them in some form of arrangement. I don't know what would be the best action though. This is what I'm hoping the discussion would become. Not a whirlpool of loving drivel with raging tankies calling me "gusano" in a crosspost from CSPAM while sitting very comfortably in their American homes. An actual discussion on viable alternatives to military action, things that will motivate a change in the country, be it from Maduro doing something that at the very least stabilizes the economy enough for people to catch a breath, or that forces a change in government. [/quote] The rest of this post is a contradictory, incoherent mess. You want "stronger" measures, stronger than sanctions (WHICH WOULD BE WHAT?), but you also think hey maybe China could just smooth everything over. But the question wasn't, "Would you be okay with a nonviolent solution." The question was how "strong" a measure are you willing to tolerate on your conscience.
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Aug 15, 2019 13:18
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BigFactory posted:By vetoing UN Security Council resolutions.
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Aug 15, 2019 13:52
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Ron Paul Atreides posted:And those would depose Maduro how? International pressure is stronger than US pressure, especially since he’s been negotiating with UN member states who signed on to proposed resolutions. Do you oppose free and fair elections in Venezuela? BigFactory fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Aug 15, 2019 |
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Aug 15, 2019 13:59
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Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:I am well aware of what it says, and I know what the word abandonment means. But I'm not going to litigate that with you. You know the arguments against. You know that there ARE arguments against. Don't act like it's obvious. I don’t care if there are arguments against, the evidence for fraud is overwhelming and you don’t want to even consider it. Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:The rest of this post is a contradictory, incoherent mess. You want "stronger" measures, stronger than sanctions (WHICH WOULD BE WHAT?), but you also think hey maybe China could just smooth everything over. But the question wasn't, "Would you be okay with a nonviolent solution." The question was how "strong" a measure are you willing to tolerate on your conscience. What I don’t want is a war. You want an answer to “how strong”? Ok, just flat out that, an invasion, an air strike, any direct hostile action is unacceptable. Diplomatic pressure is what I’m referring to, soft power. Maduro and his cronies are violent and not willing to go down without a fight, so for me to tell you the exact measure that will make him step down is a tall order. Getting him, as in, him and not someone else down the chain to sit down for talks would be a great start. I’m going to turn it around to you. Let’s say sanctions are removed. Now what? Maduro sells off Citgo and other PDVSA assets to foreign countries and Wall Street for quick cash. People continue to starve because the loving mechanisms that led to starvation are still in place. What do you do next?
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Aug 15, 2019 14:37
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fnox posted:I’m going to turn it around to you. Let’s say sanctions are removed. Now what? Maduro sells off Citgo and other PDVSA assets to foreign countries and Wall Street for quick cash. People continue to starve because the loving mechanisms that led to starvation are still in place. What do you do next? Uh... selling off public assets is the opposition's plan. Your brain is broken.
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Aug 15, 2019 15:28
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Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:Uh... selling off public assets is the opposition's plan. Your brain is broken. The PSUV has been selling off public assets for a while now.
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Aug 15, 2019 16:33
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Generally for big issues like this there's no good answer for what'll solve everything. Maduro and his policies are the source of both the economic suffering and the oppression of democracy that prevents the population from trying to fix things on their own without a full overthrow of the current government, and it's doubtful he'll change his mind about anything anytime soon. International pressure sounds good, but I don't think I've heard of that ever really working to shut down a regime like that. Foreign invasion would be a whole mess of its own that would make things worse before they could better, would 100% be mismanaged, and probably wouldn't fully restore democracy for decades, if ever. I do wonder with these situations where an entire regime rests on the continued rule of one guy to whom any passing of power is unacceptable, what happens when Maduro dies? As happens to all of us eventually, the unavoidable passage of power. Would the regime produce some jerk to double down on Maduro's policies, or would they relent and try seeking some kind of popular appeal instead of monarchistic continuity. There's a solution that would take 10-20 years. The way they did it back in medieval times, wait and hope the next guy does better.
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Aug 15, 2019 16:45
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gotta make leaving the venezuelan people alone to govern themselves sound worse than literally murdering millions of them
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Aug 15, 2019 17:17
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the us just has to stop loving with them for like, 15 minutes, god
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Aug 15, 2019 17:19
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Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:Uh... selling off public assets is the opposition's plan. Your brain is broken. Maduro mortgaged CITGO, PDVSA's US subsidiary, to Russia. All of it. Maduro pays Goldman Sachs 70 million after sovereign default and sanctions in April 2018 China keeps slowly getting more and more control of oil production in the country. You gotta be really loving stupid if you think Maduro is gonna miss out on some juicy, juicy moolah. Venezuela doesn't work like you think it does.
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Aug 15, 2019 18:01
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fnox posted:Maduro mortgaged CITGO, PDVSA's US subsidiary, to Russia. All of it. You seem really confused, he didn't say Maduro isn't selling any assets, but that the opposition's publicly stated they'd do the same thing.
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Aug 15, 2019 18:14
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Mischievous Mink posted:You seem really confused, he didn't say Maduro isn't selling any assets, but that the opposition's publicly stated they'd do the same thing. What the gently caress? So that Maduro is doing that right loving now is not a problem?
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Aug 15, 2019 18:30
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fnox posted:What the gently caress? So that Maduro is doing that right loving now is not a problem? Nobody said that, just that the opposition government isn't offering a solution to the issue, just more of the same. Which makes removal of Maduro at any cost seem like a really dicey proposition to me, tbh.
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Aug 15, 2019 18:31
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BigFactory posted:International pressure is stronger than US pressure, especially since he’s been negotiating with UN member states who signed on to proposed resolutions. International pressure WAS working until the latest US involvement. The electoral tides turned right-wing in most of south america (and even fashy in Brazil) and Maduro barely had any allies left when they used to count on Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay and Argentina. Brazil and Colombia were saber-rattling. Things looked grim for Maduro and maybe it was a matter of time before he bolted out. Sadly, US involvement made even staunchly anti-Chavismo guys take pause because noone (except actual psycopaths) wants a hell-war in our region and Trump being Trump, you kinda learn to distrust everything he says and supports
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Aug 15, 2019 18:38
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Mischievous Mink posted:Nobody said that, just that the opposition government isn't offering a solution to the issue, just more of the same. Which makes removal of Maduro at any cost seem like a really dicey proposition to me, tbh. Nope, that's not what they're saying. Nobody has said that the problem is that they'd be more of the same. Matter of fact none of them recognize that Maduro has sold off state assets to foreign actors.
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Aug 15, 2019 18:41
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Pacho posted:International pressure WAS working until the latest US involvement. The electoral tides turned right-wing in most of south america (and even fashy in Brazil) and Maduro barely had any allies left when they used to count on Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay and Argentina. Brazil and Colombia were saber-rattling. Things looked grim for Maduro and maybe it was a matter of time before he bolted out. Sadly, US involvement made even staunchly anti-Chavismo guys take pause because noone (except actual psycopaths) wants a hell-war in our region and Trump being Trump, you kinda learn to distrust everything he says and supports Shouldn’t that ramp up pressure then? Why would anyone want to be on trumps radar?
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Aug 15, 2019 18:44
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BigFactory posted:Shouldn’t that ramp up pressure then? Why would anyone want to be on trumps radar? I think we have different concepts of "pressure". What I meant is pressuring the Maduro goverment into giving up, call elections or just plain abandoning Venezuela and having regional and global groups observe new fairer elections and the reconstruction of the country, because the opposition in Venezuela is too weak. I believe other countries in the region have the power to enact pressure this way because they are neighbours and peers Venezuela has to deal with for trade, diplomacy, assistance, etc. I don't believe US sanctions and the spectre of military intervention help in this regard because they just pressure Maduro and the military heads into being more entrenched, as they see no way out
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Aug 15, 2019 19:32
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fnox posted:Hey here’s an idea for you all: what if we get rid of the US Finally an interventionist willing to come to a reasonable compromise
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Aug 15, 2019 19:41
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