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ah! well. nevertheless,
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Sep 14, 2019 17:08
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model porn is cool but I like the raw real stuff
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Sep 14, 2019 17:19
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well that's it, god is clearly on trump's side
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Sep 14, 2019 19:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:nah there’s good model consensus that it goes out to sea 20% of the latest euro ensembles show stalls or loops instead of a recurve toward Bermuda which would leave Hispaniola to the NC coast in play. Models may have consensus, but they also have underdispersion. A system that tracks on the slower end of model guidance here would easily not be out to sea. I'd put the odds of a CONUS landfall still somewhere around 15%, but model consensus will become more meaningful in the next 12 hours as the actual core vortex of the system becomes well defined. Edit: someone on a weather forum counted the ensembles and 16/51 have a CONUS landfall or close enough brush for impacts. 
Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 21:01 on Sep 14, 2019 |
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Sep 14, 2019 20:56
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:20% of the latest euro ensembles show stalls or loops instead of a recurve toward Bermuda which would leave Hispaniola to the NC coast in play. nah
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Sep 14, 2019 21:26
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how long before we get another hurricane that decides to go straight for NYC
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Sep 14, 2019 22:56
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:20% of the latest euro ensembles show stalls or loops instead of a recurve toward Bermuda which would leave Hispaniola to the NC coast in play. Not really by the look of it
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Sep 14, 2019 23:40
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Polo-Rican posted:This is the only Bahamas-related story on the front page of cnn right now lol rename this thread, imo
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Sep 15, 2019 09:40
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Al! posted:well that's it, god is clearly on trump's side How long until Trump has the NSA create a hurricane machine just so his weather predictions can be accurate?
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Sep 15, 2019 17:06
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etalian posted:How long until Trump has the NSA create a hurricane machine just so his weather predictions can be accurate? According to my cousin, Russia has had one for years. Does that count?
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Sep 15, 2019 17:07
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etalian posted:How long until Trump has the NSA create a hurricane machine just so his weather predictions can be accurate? well obama had haarp built to turn the frogs gay so why not repurpose it in service of the goodbrains teilmp
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Sep 15, 2019 18:10
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Sep 17, 2019 16:01
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Never expected Florida to suddenly become immune to hurricanes.Notorious R.I.M. posted:20% of the latest euro ensembles show stalls or loops instead of a recurve toward Bermuda which would leave Hispaniola to the NC coast in play. GO HOME STORM! YOU ARE DRUNK!
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Sep 17, 2019 19:11
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 Alabama
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Sep 17, 2019 19:25
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Wasn't there a hurricane last year or the year before that just did doughnuts in the atlantic for like a month? It's been a few weird years.
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Sep 17, 2019 19:41
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A lot of the models have it taking a northern turn around Monday next week which is good because that shows consensus but it's far out enough to not be a guarantee. This morning they made the disturbance in the gulf of Mexico a tropical storm so Texas is getting that this weekend.
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Sep 17, 2019 20:16
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a tropical storm just formed within a couple hours, and made landfall less than an hour later i love our dead planet future https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1174019325340127233 https://mobile.twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1174029059027886082
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Sep 17, 2019 20:18
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So with all these storms loving up the Bahamas that pretty much means all the energy has been used up for any future storms this season hurtling towards Florida right
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Sep 17, 2019 20:21
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Stairmaster posted:So with all these storms loving up the Bahamas that pretty much means all the energy has been used up for any future storms this season hurtling towards Florida right Nah, Trump has just figured out how to use HAARP to shield Mar-A-Lago
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Sep 17, 2019 20:25
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Stairmaster posted:So with all these storms loving up the Bahamas that pretty much means all the energy has been used up for any future storms this season hurtling towards Florida right idk much about hurricane tracks, but a bunch of meteorologists on Twitter are saying conditions for storm formations are still getting better and better, predicting a wave of new storms over the next couple weeks. we're at the peak of hurricane season right now, and apparently some kind of massive air pattern that encourages hurricane formation is entering the Atlantic right about now https://mobile.twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/1173626761831165954 https://mobile.twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1174000972546359296
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Sep 17, 2019 20:44
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Main Paineframe posted:idk much about hurricane tracks, but a bunch of meteorologists on Twitter are saying conditions for storm formations are still getting better and better, predicting a wave of new storms over the next couple weeks. we're at the peak of hurricane season right now, and apparently some kind of massive air pattern that encourages hurricane formation is entering the Atlantic right about now I have no idea how to read this chart so I guess it's time to learn something new.
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Sep 17, 2019 21:09
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net work error posted:I have no idea how to read this chart so I guess it's time to learn something new. I think it's more intuitive to look at like this: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2019091712&fh=6 Green is air that is rising and spreading in the upper troposphere, brown is air that is sinking and converging. Convection is stronger in green air so it's easier for hurricanes to get their latent heat engine rolling.
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Sep 17, 2019 21:23
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a couple days back some posters were talking about a dystopia where lowlying islands were razed so rich coastlines could steal their sand. that would actually be better than the reality: we're illegally tearing out protected habitat to steal sand for concrete. Because desert sand isn't shaped right, it can only be beach sand. so the bahamas will be dredged to the seabed to make chinese highrises Found the video I was looking for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpc3hhH1cas Harik has issued a correction as of 02:39 on Sep 18, 2019 |
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Sep 18, 2019 02:34
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Harik posted:a couple days back some posters were talking about a dystopia where lowlying islands were razed so rich coastlines could steal their sand. i love our wonderful species
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Sep 18, 2019 08:30
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https://twitter.com/BdaGlenn/status/1174458607393542144?s=19
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Sep 19, 2019 03:55
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https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1174330038692524033?s=20
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Sep 19, 2019 04:05
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jerry! hello!!
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Sep 19, 2019 04:07
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Geostorm was a documentary
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Sep 19, 2019 04:32
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Its early but Jerry looks like it's in prime position to get a good jump on a catastrophic landfall
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Sep 19, 2019 12:19
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Thoughtd I'd pop in and say imelda sucks and most of the city is shut down because it's all flooded. Thank goodness climate change isn't real. Thank you president trudmiddk
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Sep 19, 2019 15:52
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Imelda lacks wind, but it does have the ability to dump >24" of rain on Texas. And that part of Texas still floods pretty easily. I guess the new normal in the greater Houston area is that some neighborhood is going to get >24" of rain every year or two now. https://twitter.com/reportingjoy/status/1174696238085738501?s=20 https://twitter.com/12NewsNow/status/1174632363806154752 https://www.facebook.com/100000644783709/posts/2697889223575877?sfns=mo http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/maps/rainfall-data-map
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Sep 19, 2019 16:46
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Winnie is no in the greater Houston area, it's way closer to Port Arthur
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Sep 19, 2019 17:10
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Gripweed posted:Winnie is no in the greater Houston area, it's way closer to Port Arthur It's also closer to 4 feet than 2 now as far as I know, lmao
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Sep 19, 2019 17:12
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also https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174708989432672256
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Sep 19, 2019 17:18
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https://twitter.com/KHOU/status/1174716497089957888
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Sep 19, 2019 17:20
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very wet from the standpoint of water that is
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Sep 19, 2019 17:20
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. https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1174672104102551553 https://twitter.com/BrettAWX/status/1174707670928019456 https://twitter.com/SteveABC13/status/1174683856391352320
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Sep 19, 2019 17:23
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a tropical storm formed in three literal hours and now this is happening i <3/h8 u, climate
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Sep 19, 2019 17:47
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We had like an hour notice that this storm was gonna hit btw. Welcome to our brave new world, please enjoy your stay.
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Sep 19, 2019 17:48
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btw new york 2140 is a pretty decent book about the moderately-near future under a high sea level rise scenario with a certain amount of excoriating our generation as cowards, which seems fair
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Sep 19, 2019 17:50
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