Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
GlyphGryph
Jun 23, 2013

Down came the glitches and burned us in ditches and we slept after eating our dead.

GoutPatrol posted:

Yes and how are we going to "un-skew" these polls?

Ignoring them, debating policy, campaigning as hard as we can for the people we believe in, getting the word out, and then seeing how much the only real polls (the primaries and caucuses) turn out.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

RottenK
Feb 17, 2011

Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

GoutPatrol posted:

Yes and how are we going to "un-skew" these polls?

just ignore them lol

bernie is the only candidate that's not poo poo, there's no one else to support no matter how good or bad his numbers are

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

Well here we are, Bernie stans claiming that numbers and science are fake news. Who does that sound like?

Calibanibal fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Sep 22, 2019

Phone
Jul 30, 2005

親子丼をほしい。

GoutPatrol posted:

Yes and how are we going to "un-skew" these polls?

How many phone calls from numbers you don’t recognize do you answer a day?

Breakfast All Day
Oct 21, 2004

GreyjoyBastard posted:

so no, i still don't think Delaney's two years at TFA a particularly big reason to hate Elizabeth Warren

Mods please namechange Greyjoy to "deaf by a thousand cuts"

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

RottenK posted:

just ignore them lol

bernie is the only candidate that's not poo poo, there's no one else to support no matter how good or bad his numbers are

Lol the people in this thread are literally giving themselves mental illness by staring at propaganda polls

Oh Snapple!
Dec 27, 2005

We literally had a pollster apologize for releasing a poll that was good for Bernie but sure political polling is definitely not a joke.

nearly killed em!
Aug 5, 2011

gently caress a poll, Bernie is going to win and the world will be a better place for it.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Edit: old.

ded redd fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Sep 22, 2019

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

She spoke to representatives of the LGBTQ community and the prison community and changed her mind! That's a good thing!

redneck nazgul
Apr 25, 2013

warren poaching republican voters from kamala harris is okay with me

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



Oh Snapple! posted:

We literally had a pollster apologize for releasing a poll that was good for Bernie but sure political polling is definitely not a joke.

that poll showed a three way tie (Bernie/Warren at 20, Biden at 19, with Biden losing 13 points from their previous poll and warren and sanders gaining 5 and 6 points respectively) , you're really taking this victim complex to a new level by making it proof that Bernie was specifically targeted

(also they didn't apologize they released a statement saying 'We think this is probably an outlier, but we feel like we have to publish our results, because it's even worse practices to not release polls or change your weighting when you get an outlier result once')

eke out fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Sep 22, 2019

Terror Sweat
Mar 15, 2009

eke out posted:

that poll showed a three way tie (Bernie/Warren at 20, Biden at 19, with Biden losing 13 points from their previous poll and warren and sanders gaining 5 and 6 points respectively) , you're really taking this victim complex to a new level by making it proof that Bernie was specifically targeted

(also they didn't apologize they released a statement saying 'We think this is probably an outlier, but we feel like we have to publish our results, because it's even worse practices to not release polls or change your weighting when you get an outlier result once')

Just lmao if you don’t think there’s a coordinated attack against bernie

Oh Snapple!
Dec 27, 2005

eke out posted:

that poll showed a three way tie (Bernie/Warren at 20, Biden at 19, with Biden losing 13 points from their previous poll and warren and sanders gaining 5 and 6 points respectively) , you're really taking this victim complex to a new level by making it proof that Bernie was specifically targeted

(also they didn't apologize they released a statement saying 'We think this is probably an outlier, but we feel like we have to publish our results, because it's even worse practices to not release polls or change your weighting when you get an outlier result once')

"Victim complex" gently caress off. They wouldn't have said poo poo if only Warren had gotten that bump and you know it.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

The polls definitely aren't fake, that's why Hillary Clinton won Michigan in 2016's primary and general election, just as the polls decreed

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

VitalSigns posted:

The polls definitely aren't fake, that's why Hillary Clinton won Michigan in 2016's primary and general election, just as the polls decreed

Also Iowa in 2008 by 30 to 40%

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Remember when Lizzo posted positively about Bernie and succdems shamed her into deleting it?

We gonna obliterate these ghouls.

https://twitter.com/leslieleeiii/status/1175422761205993472

We need to keep bringing it up. The only people eyerolling about it are white chuds and trust fund brats also hoteps.

Nonsense fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Sep 22, 2019

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
Again, why do we allow polls to be posted here? It's just alt-centrist bullshit made by white liberal racists that told us hillary was going to win and convince us good leftist things aren't possible

Heavy neutrino
Sep 16, 2007

You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.
Errr why would we not allow polls of the democratic primary race to be posted in the democratic primary race thread?

Just calm down and remember that Sanders' strategy is to turn out the voters who are deliberately under-sampled by these polls.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Typo posted:

Again, why do we allow polls to be posted here? It's just alt-centrist bullshit made by white liberal racists that told us hillary was going to win and convince us good leftist things aren't possible

DNC Primary 2020: No Polls Allowed Unless They Show Bernie Ahead

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Heavy neutrino posted:

Errr why would we not allow polls of the democratic primary race to be posted in the democratic primary race thread?

Just calm down and remember that Sanders' strategy is to turn out the voters who are deliberately under-sampled by these polls.

because it's loving bullshit made to demoralize the left so we think we have to go for some racist liberal lady like warren or hillary or harris instead of good and cool leftist candidates like bernie who is the only alternative to fascist capitalism and the heat death of the planet

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Typo posted:

Again, why do we allow polls to be posted here? It's just alt-centrist bullshit made by white liberal racists that told us hillary was going to win and convince us good leftist things aren't possible

The same reason you and Calibanibal are allowed to post here.

RottenK
Feb 17, 2011

Sexy bad choices

FAILED NOJOE

DaveWoo posted:

DNC Primary 2020: No Polls Allowed Unless They Show Bernie Ahead

this but unironically

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
polls matter <- liberals after 2016

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

the dark horse emerges!



also I like the polls the second to last week of January cos that's probably the final result.

Nonsense fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Sep 22, 2019

twodot
Aug 7, 2005

You are objectively correct that this person is dumb and has said dumb things

Heavy neutrino posted:

Errr why would we not allow polls of the democratic primary race to be posted in the democratic primary race thread?
What is there to debate or discuss about a sequence of ten numbers? Like "Sanders is down 2 and Biden is up 3 and Yang is still at 0%, all of these results are inside the margin of error" there's nothing to say about any of that.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

twodot posted:

What is there to debate or discuss about a sequence of ten numbers? Like "Sanders is down 2 and Biden is up 3 and Yang is still at 0%, all of these results are inside the margin of error" there's nothing to say about any of that.

the entire planet is literally going to be destroyed unless we elect the only non-capitalist candidate and the people in this loving thread are arguing number fuckerstain baseball scores for an election a year ahead of time

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

It does own that instead of actually criticizing Sanders his detractors are left to do lovely trolling where they fake post as leftists to try to make Sanders look bad by association.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


what a loving baby.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1175812815430520832

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007


Drag this lolbertarian piece of poo poo

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

wonder what he's going to say once bernie wins

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

Trabisnikof posted:

It does own that instead of actually criticizing Sanders his detractors are left to do lovely trolling where they fake post as leftists to try to make Sanders look bad by association.

it's been a thousandfold improvement for some posters tbh. Like I could probably just quote typo's posts for the past couple months and just go "this but unironically"

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Typo posted:

wonder what he's going to say once bernie wins

He'll be charting Trump's path to reelection if Bernie wins the nomination and if Bernie wins the presidency it'll be all approval ratings all the time

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

overmind2000 posted:

He'll be charting Trump's path to reelection if Bernie wins the nomination and if Bernie wins the presidency it'll be all approval ratings all the time

Ah that's right, the media will remember to hold the president accountable.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

overmind2000 posted:

He'll be charting Trump's path to reelection if Bernie wins the nomination and if Bernie wins the presidency it'll be all approval ratings all the time

"sorry i was too busy number fuckerstaining to look at the crowd size at bernie rallies"

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

The issue isn't that polls mean nothing, but more that in the specific context of election polls there's an inherent, unavoidable flaw in that pollsters have to predict who is going to vote. Basically, polls are incapable of accurately predicting the result if voting patterns change (which is Sanders' whole strategy).

Like, if you just polled a random group of 1000 people that would presumably give you an accurate sense of what the American people believe, but the issue is that these polls also have to guess who will vote in the primary (which, if you generously assume they're not purposefully biasing them in a way that prevent Sanders from doing well, still involves them operating on the assumption that the same people will vote who voted in the past).

crazy cloud
Nov 7, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Lipstick Apathy

Wicked Them Beats posted:

The polls are only accurate if they show Bernie winning.

I'm not being ironic. Polls are not science, showing us the truth about the state of the world. They are marketing tools that are deployed for the purpose of crafting narratives. They use the language of science: MoE and P-values and simple random samples and so on, which are useful tools if you're trying to gauge how many widgets coming off of a production line are defective. But if you're trying to predict future human action, those same tools fall very very short. And the people doing the polls and talking up the polls and tweeting about how they throw away outliers until they get the results they want know this.

And if polls are not tools of science, meant to explain something about the world, but marketing devices meant to construct narratives, then the only polls anyone should consider real are the polls that reinforce the narratives you want to be true. Hell, that Nate basically guessed what the results would be before this latest poll dropped should tell you everything you need to know: the pollsters are herding, making sure their polls fit the dominant narrative. Nate isn't a genius who is tuned in to the pulse of the electorate, he's an elite who is tuned in to the wants and needs of the existing power structure. That he seems to believe he has some special insight is pretty sad when all he's really proving is how deeply he's been indoctrinated.

tldr Polls bad Bernie good.

You're completely correct. See you in a week!

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

crazy cloud
Nov 7, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Lipstick Apathy

Typo posted:

Again, why do we allow polls to be posted here? It's just alt-centrist bullshit made by white liberal racists that told us hillary was going to win and convince us good leftist things aren't possible

Because Main Painframe locks anybody out for a week who says the truth, for some unknown, unspecified (probably Liz supporter) reason

twodot
Aug 7, 2005

You are objectively correct that this person is dumb and has said dumb things
Even if there weren't very good reasons to think the polls have immense sampling and publication biases, I still don't see what there is to actually discuss about a poll.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

mediaphage
Mar 22, 2007

Excuse me, pardon me, sheer perfection coming through

twodot posted:

Even if there weren't very good reasons to think the polls have immense sampling and publication biases, I still don't see what there is to actually discuss about a poll.

Especially this far out. Although what’s left besides rehashing the same points over and over (not complaining, mind you; I get just as sucked in sometimes).

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply