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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)
 
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tino
Jun 4, 2018

by Smythe
If and when China becomes a superpower officially IMO there should be a different standard to judge its power other than the old cold war measurement.

The eastern bloc was competing with the west on mainly military and mind share. Its ecosystem was completely closed off and its style of the economy was very inefficient.

China OTOH was competing with USA within the game rule US created post ww2 while slowly discredit the US rules one by one. In a way, Obama's complaint that China was taking free ride off the US policed globalization trade world has some basis. But it's not like US would sell a carrier and some F35 to China so China can do some policing themselves. All US wants from China is China pay up more protection fee while the US does the policing.

So the way China compete with the US is totally different from the Soviet. China influences third party countries by having bigger trade volume and bigger investment with said country than the US. Philippine is a good example of how China turn its tie with the US. Of course, you still need hard military power to backup your soft power so China is doing that too. And because China rely so much on trade volume to exert its power I don't see China ever giving up on the manufacturing industries. US gave up a lot of it's manufacturing industries in pursue of higher profit finance industries since Reagen, China sees that as a mistake and I think the CCP will do a lot of things to keep the key manufacturing industries inside China.

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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

tino posted:

The eastern bloc was competing with the west on mainly military and mind share. Its ecosystem was completely closed off and its style of the economy was very inefficient.

quote:

Around the time of the Soviet collapse, the economist Peter Murrell published an article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives reviewing empirical studies of efficiency in the socialist planned economies. These studies consistently failed to support the neoclassical analysis: virtually all of them found that by standard neoclassical measures of efficiency, the planned economies performed as well or better than market economies.

Murrell pleaded with readers to suspend their prejudices:

quote:

The consistency and tenor of the results will surprise many readers. I was, and am, surprised at the nature of these results. And given their inconsistency with received doctrines, there is a tendency to dismiss them on methodological grounds. However, such dismissal becomes increasingly hard when faced with a cumulation of consistent results from a variety of sources.
First he reviewed eighteen studies of technical efficiency: the degree to which a firm produces at its own maximum technological level. Matching studies of centrally planned firms with studies that examined capitalist firms using the same methodologies, he compared the results. One paper, for example, found a 90% level of technical efficiency in capitalist firms; another using the same method found a 93% level in Soviet firms. The results continued in the same way: 84% versus 86%, 87% versus 95%, and so on.

Then Murrell examined studies of allocative efficiency: the degree to which inputs are allocated among firms in a way that maximizes total output. One paper found that a fully optimal reallocation of inputs would increase total Soviet output by only 3%-4%. Another found that raising Soviet efficiency to US standards would increase its GNP by all of 2%. A third produced a range of estimates as low as 1.5%. The highest number found in any of the Soviet studies was 10%. As Murrell notes, these were hardly amounts “likely to encourage the overthrow of a whole socio-economic system.” (Murell wasn’t the only economist to notice this anomaly: an article titled “Why Is the Soviet Economy Allocatively Efficient?” appeared in Soviet Studies around the same time.)

Two German microeconomists tested the “widely accepted” hypothesis that “prices in a planned economy are arbitrarily set exchange ratios without any relation to relative scarcities or economic valuations [whereas] capitalist market prices are close to equilibrium levels.” They employed a technique that analyzes the distribution of an economy’s inputs among industries to measure how far the pattern diverges from that which would be expected to prevail under perfectly optimal neoclassical prices. Examining East German and West German data from 1987, they arrived at an “astonishing result”: the divergence was 16.1% in the West and 16.5% in the East, a trivial difference. The gap in the West’s favor, they wrote, was greatest in the manufacturing sectors, where something like competitive conditions may have existed. But in the bulk of the West German economy — which was then being hailed globally as Modell Deutschland — monopolies, taxes, subsidies, and so on actually left its price structure further from the “efficient” optimum than in the moribund Communist system behind the Berlin Wall.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

gradenko_2000 posted:

First he reviewed eighteen studies of technical efficiency: the degree to which a firm produces at its own maximum technological level. Matching studies of centrally planned firms with studies that examined capitalist firms using the same methodologies, he compared the results. One paper, for example, found a 90% level of technical efficiency in capitalist firms; another using the same method found a 93% level in Soviet firms. The results continued in the same way: 84% versus 86%, 87% versus 95%, and so on.

Then Murrell examined studies of allocative efficiency: the degree to which inputs are allocated among firms in a way that maximizes total output. One paper found that a fully optimal reallocation of inputs would increase total Soviet output by only 3%-4%. Another found that raising Soviet efficiency to US standards would increase its GNP by all of 2%. A third produced a range of estimates as low as 1.5%. The highest number found in any of the Soviet studies was 10%. As Murrell notes, these were hardly amounts “likely to encourage the overthrow of a whole socio-economic system.” (Murell wasn’t the only economist to notice this anomaly: an article titled “Why Is the Soviet Economy Allocatively Efficient?” appeared in Soviet Studies around the same time.)

Two German microeconomists tested the “widely accepted” hypothesis that “prices in a planned economy are arbitrarily set exchange ratios without any relation to relative scarcities or economic valuations [whereas] capitalist market prices are close to equilibrium levels.” They employed a technique that analyzes the distribution of an economy’s inputs among industries to measure how far the pattern diverges from that which would be expected to prevail under perfectly optimal neoclassical prices. Examining East German and West German data from 1987, they arrived at an “astonishing result”: the divergence was 16.1% in the West and 16.5% in the East, a trivial difference. The gap in the West’s favor, they wrote, was greatest in the manufacturing sectors, where something like competitive conditions may have existed. But in the bulk of the West German economy — which was then being hailed globally as Modell Deutschland — monopolies, taxes, subsidies, and so on actually left its price structure further from the “efficient” optimum than in the moribund Communist system behind the Berlin Wall.
[/quote]

ooh, that's super interesting

IWW Online Branch
Apr 20, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo

Typo posted:

I think the real question you should ask is if China' internal problems are worse or Americas

also lol no USA has pushed Russia into the Chinese camp (not those) so the northern frontiers are quite secure right now

"Worse" is sort of a bad way to put it. They're qualitatively different issues. America's domestic problems haven't slowed its empire building, if anything internal crisis just makes America more aggressive. Which is what you'd expect to see from a nation in the late stages of capitalist development. China is still a developing nation, and it's currently having to deal with some of the side effects of such rapid development. This is just not the sort of nation that typically finds itself in the position of world leader. It would be like if America surpassed the British empire as the world's dominant power in the 19th century.

And also Russia is very clearly trying to build itself up to superpower status as well. That will inevitably lead them into conflict with China, it doesn't take some geostrategic chess master to see that.

tino
Jun 4, 2018

by Smythe

Typo posted:

I think the real question you should ask is if China' internal problems are worse or Americas

also lol no USA has pushed Russia into the Chinese camp (not those) so the northern frontiers are quite secure right now

The Russians harbor a lot of resentment against the Americans who suckered them into taking the shock therapy and lied to them about not expanding NATO (Bush Sr) and had did an about face right afterward. The US didn't even give the democratic Russia the most favored nation trade status they gave to communist China.

The Chinese OTOH, has read the three kingdoms backward and forward many times and are very familiar with the three-power dynamic, they gave a lot of land to Russia to settle the land dispute and make peace with Russia.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

TrilliontonNixon posted:


And also Russia is very clearly trying to build itself up to superpower status as well. That will inevitably lead them into conflict with China, it doesn't take some geostrategic chess master to see that.

They are trying, but the inevitable absolute demographic and relative economic decline of Russia relative to China, Europe and the USA means they are unlikely to succeed. At the same time, the US, EU and Russia have quite skillfully maneuvered Russia into a situation where they are dependent on China in the foreseeable future.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

tino posted:

The Russians harbor a lot of resentment against the Americans who suckered them into taking the shock therapy and lied to them about not expanding NATO (Bush Sr) and had did an about face right afterward. The US didn't even give the democratic Russia the most favored nation trade status they gave to communist China.

The Chinese OTOH, has read the three kingdoms backward and forward many times and are very familiar with the three-power dynamic, they gave a lot of land to Russia to settle the land dispute and make peace with Russia.

the 1990s actually didn't matter so much as 2008-2014

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/ChinaDaily/status/1179584353824690176?s=20

Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010



the line just added another dash

Tom Smykowski
Jan 27, 2005

What the hell is wrong with you people?
Has motherland/祖国 always been used a lot? I feel like I've seen it a lot more recently but idk

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Tom Smykowski posted:

Has motherland/祖国 always been used a lot? I feel like I've seen it a lot more recently but idk

yes

IWW Online Branch
Apr 20, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo

Taiwan: Why do I hear boss music?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

TrilliontonNixon posted:

Taiwan: Why do I hear boss music?

Taiwan Number #1!

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

sincx has issued a correction as of 05:29 on Mar 23, 2021

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx has issued a correction as of 05:29 on Mar 23, 2021

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Some Guy TT posted:

as far as i can tell guyovich is the only tankie in this thread mainly because you call him one every other post every time hes around but never bother with anyone else
stealth tank

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon

why are people against protests exactly

Kurtofan
Feb 16, 2011

hon hon hon
gently caress landlords lol

Deep State of Mind
Jul 30, 2006

"It was a busy day. I do not remember it all. In the morning, I thought I had lost my wallet. Then we went swimming and either overthrew a government or started a pro-American radio station. I can't really remember."
Fun Shoe

R. Guyovich posted:

post proof of this or get probated. i'm sick of your poo poo

sounds like I struck a nerve but here you go:
The Chinese government is lousy with fantastically rich people.

If you want to argue that the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference have no actual influence on state policy (a statement I'd agree with), then I have to move my goalposts a bit and say I can't find anything to prove on this internet forum that members of the Standing Committee or State Council control assets over a billion US dollars. But six Standing Committee members controlling assets in the billions of HK dollars in Hong Kong alone last year at least suggests there could be enough elsewhere to push me over that arbitrary number. And even if not, these are still absurdly wealthy people for lifelong civil servants whose official salaries have never popped up over US $20,000 a year.

The point here being that the Chinese government is one by, of, and for the extremely wealthy. And of course what I'm getting at with the "wearing red" business is that there is a certain faction of Internet leftists that will stand up for these extremely wealthy and extremely powerful people because they use Marxist-Leninist symbolism while wielding the organs of state power to enrich themselves.

I grant that sometimes the motivation for that support is less a fetishization of tanks and hammers and sickles and more a contrarian "anyone who opposes America is good". But at the end of the day they're still standing up for a bunch of rich assholes who use the cops to beat down the poor and marginalized, just like all the rich assholes in all the capitalist countries.

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1179501308233109504?s=20

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747
Taiwan is getting cornered and honestly should just declare independence rather than become a complete pariah. With Trump in office my guess is they can survive without an invasion and then take a decade or so to renormalize relations.

Then again China might Cuba them and they get double pariah'd


speaking of which I think only three countries are not a part of the IMF and World Bank... Cuba, North Korea and Taiwan lol

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Modest Mao posted:

Taiwan is getting cornered and honestly should just declare independence rather than become a complete pariah. With Trump in office my guess is they can survive without an invasion and then take a decade or so to renormalize relations.

Then again China might Cuba them and they get double pariah'd

China will literally never normalize relationships with a secessionist province

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747

Typo posted:

China will literally never normalize relationships with a secessionist province

What about Mongolia

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Modest Mao posted:

What about Mongolia

outside of 1949 borders

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747
Okay, so you just mean current political climate in China will not normalize relations with an independent Taiwan in the foreseeable future then, instead of the much broader thing you said but didn't actually mean

Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010


Typo posted:

outside of 1949 borders

china will never normalize relations with india until they return arunachal pradesh

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747
was going to point that out too! They're just bloodthirsty for the island that was part of china for 3 years out of the last 130 or so

and is still under the control of the chinese state that had it in those 3 years lmao

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Bro Dad posted:

china will never normalize relations with india until they return arunachal pradesh

last I checked, arunachal pradesh isn't pretending to be its own country

fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1179625714208821248?s=20

Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010


Typo posted:

last I checked, arunachal pradesh isn't pretending to be its own country

its a state of india, just like taiwan is part of the republic of china

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx has issued a correction as of 05:29 on Mar 23, 2021

IWW Online Branch
Apr 20, 2016

by Nyc_Tattoo
What's cool to me is that the border between China and Nepal is set up to run right through the summit of Mount Everest. It's like the Four Corners except you're dying of oxygen deprivation.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Bro Dad posted:

its a state of india, just like taiwan is part of the republic of china

right, so it's not a secessionist province but rather occupied territory

tbh few in China gives a poo poo about a few miles of mountain illegally occupied by India, most don't even know about it. Taiwan on the other hand is close and dear to the hearts of the chinese proletariat

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747
So kinmen, mazu and penghu are OK because they're occupied territory of Fujian and not a full fledged province, they get a pass

cmon man you said something dumb and now the goalposts move

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

sincx posted:

Ignore the gimmick.

It's not a question of whether China will ever accept an independent Taiwan. 20, 30 years from now, who knows?

But China right now, under Xi, will almost certainly go to war if Taiwan declares independence. Xi's staked his entire rule on nationalism, and if Xi appears weak when push comes to shove, one of the hardliners waiting in the wings will try to depose him. So Xi can't afford to not invade, and he knows this.

A China that somehow falls under the domination of a nationalist government or a bourgoise-parliamentary system would not tolerate Taiwanese government anymore so than Xi. That Taiwan belongs to China has almost universal political consensus within both the party and the masses

Modest Mao
Feb 11, 2011

by Cyrano4747
I do think China has no idea how to court Taiwanese and basically constantly fucks up

They pulled out of 金馬 which was probably some of the best cross straight good will building propaganda they could have and now the world is sorta absent a significant Chinese film award since no one gives a poo poo about golden roosters. Such a loving shame

China clearly plans to invade by force anyway why not get it over with, the situation will only be less and less advantageous

LimburgLimbo
Feb 10, 2008

Typo posted:

A China that somehow falls under the domination of a nationalist government or a bourgoise-parliamentary system would not tolerate Taiwanese government anymore so than Xi. That Taiwan belongs to China has almost universal political consensus within both the party and the masses

They’ve made it the consensus because the powers that be have decided it should be so and brainwash the gently caress out of kids to feel so. They stop doing that and all the sudden people will give far fewer fucks.

Man Musk
Jan 13, 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2viGTcVn6C0

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Modest Mao posted:

So kinmen, mazu and penghu are OK because they're occupied territory of Fujian and not a full fledged province, they get a pass

cmon man you said something dumb and now the goalposts move

once Taiwan is returned so will those islands obvsly

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LimburgLimbo
Feb 10, 2008

Modest Mao posted:

China clearly plans to invade by force anyway why not get it over with, the situation will only be less and less advantageous

Is that really the case? In pure military size and technology the gap between Taiwan and China is getting wider. Moreover Xi took total power fairly recently and if an invasion were to go bad (and it very likely would; even if Taiwan can’t hold out forever on its own causing sufficient casualties could be politically catastrophic for the CCP). Seems like waiting while the mainland military gets stronger and there’s enough time that Xi could disassociate himself with a potential military disaster is a better move.

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