UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

«‹›338 »

Angry Lobster: May 16, 2011; Served with honor
and some clarified butter.

tithin posted:

sort of the latter? but basically the tories dont have the ability to pass the legislation on their own, they can't even pass it with the DUP on board (which they're not anymore) - none of the opposition trust any deal that gets crafted because they're all having second thoughts about brexit.

so even if the tories were operating as a single unit (they're not) and had the dup on board (they're not) they still couldn't overcome the greens / lab / lib dem combo

So opposition won't approve any deal presented by Johnson, unlesss Johnson demands an extension first?

E: cute catto

Angry Lobster fucked around with this message at 14:13 on Oct 17, 2019

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:10

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 18:46

Archaeology Hat: Aug 10, 2009

sexpig by night posted:

interesting, thanks! So where does it go from here? More extensions keeping the farce up forever?

gently caress knows.

Probably an extension and a general election which if the Tories win means a deal not unlike this one comes to pass and if anyone else wins probably means a 2nd referendum.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:11

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-50074585

Council tenants win 'segregated' garden rule fight

get hosed, rich people

quote:

Council tenants have won a fight to use gardens on their estate reserved for owners of multimillion-pound flats.

Residents of Westbourne Place in London complained after being told by Octavia Housing Association they could not access the garden.

Westminster Council said recently the property's planning application had "no condition that allowed segregation".

Gates put in by luxury flats developer Redrow were "never designed to keep certain residents separate", it said. ( yeah right)

The council is now looking into whether any planning permission was breached, the Local Democracy Reporting Service said.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:12

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

quote:

Gates ... were "never designed to keep certain residents separate"

lmao sure

What else would you use gates for? Keeping London's many feral hogs off of the playing fields?

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:15

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

sexpig by night posted:

interesting, thanks! So where does it go from here? More extensions keeping the farce up forever?

Literally no one knows.
- The combined opposition parties want a general election
- So does the government
- The point of difference between them is that the combined opposition won't vote for a GE until such a time as "no deal" has been taken off the table. The government can't vote for one on its own as it lacks the numbers to pass this in parliament.
- The PM's basically said that he's not going to extend Brexit past Oct 31st (but he's bound by the Benn Act to request an extension from the EU, even though he doesn't want one)
- That means to get a GE, he either needs to get a deal from the EU, or getting an extension.
- The PM has remained cagey on if he'll follow the law and request the extension or not.

There's a general consensus that we'll know by the 19th as to what's going to happen next (I have no idea why the 19th is the next big milestone).

On a related note, I saw this and chuckled

Angry Lobster posted:

So opposition won't approve any deal presented by Johnson, unlesss Johnson demands an extension first?

E: cute catto

e: basically yeah, Johnson can't pass poo poo even with a united house (it's not) and extra to help. He's not getting his GE until there's an extension to brexit.

Miftan posted:

19th is the deadline to ask for an extension per the Benn Act

Good to know, cheers

tithin fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Oct 17, 2019

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:16

Miftan: Mar 31, 2012; Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

tithin posted:

Literally no one knows.
- The combined opposition parties want a general election
- So does the government
- The point of difference between them is that the combined opposition won't vote for a GE until such a time as "no deal" has been taken off the table. The government can't vote for one on its own as it lacks the numbers to pass this in parliament.
- The PM's basically said that he's not going to extend Brexit past Oct 31st (but he's bound by the Benn Act to request an extension from the EU, even though he doesn't want one)
- That means to get a GE, he either needs to get a deal from the EU, or getting an extension.
- The PM has remained cagey on if he'll follow the law and request the extension or not.

There's a general consensus that we'll know by the 19th as to what's going to happen next (I have no idea why the 19th is the next big milestone).

On a related note, I saw this and chuckled

19th is the deadline to ask for an extension per the Benn Act

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:17

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

tithin posted:

Literally no one knows.
- The combined opposition parties want a general election
- So does the government
- The point of difference between them is that the combined opposition won't vote for a GE until such a time as "no deal" has been taken off the table. The government can't vote for one on its own as it lacks the numbers to pass this in parliament.
- The PM's basically said that he's not going to extend Brexit past Oct 31st (but he's bound by the Benn Act to request an extension from the EU, even though he doesn't want one)
- That means to get a GE, he either needs to get a deal from the EU, or getting an extension.
- The PM has remained cagey on if he'll follow the law and request the extension or not.

There's a general consensus that we'll know by the 19th as to what's going to happen next (I have no idea why the 19th is the next big milestone).

On a related note, I saw this and chuckled

The 19th is the deadline for the benn act, if he doesn't seek an extension or secure a deal by then, he's in contempt of court.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:17

Still B.A.E: Mar 24, 2012

Guavanaut posted:

It's not being a crank when there is a conspiracy.

As in, there is a coordinated effort from Labour Friends of Israel and the JC and so on to paint the Labour left as antisemitic, and many of the people behind it happen to be Jewish or perceive themselves as fighting for the interests of Jewish people (which is antisemitic itself, 'the interests of Jewish people' do not necessitate being anti-left or pro-Israel).

That doesn't make it a 'Jewish conspiracy' any more than the organized child sexual exploitation scandal in Rotherham was because of 'Muslim grooming gangs', with all that implies, and if people start to make generalizations about either group based on that then that's a bad thing and should be stopped.

Yes, that's exactly my point. How do you stop it though?

I don't know if you think I'd bought into the 'Jewish conspiracy' thing from my post, but I can assure you I haven't.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:20

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Guavanaut posted:

lmao sure

*after revolution*

Oops sorry!! The blades were never intended to keep certain heads separate

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:20

xtothez: Jan 4, 2004; College Slice

namesake posted:

A referendum amendment will probably pass and means the deal will probably pass. Anyone asking for a second ref but then voting it down will look nuts and a wrecker at absolute best.

That would make Labour's Brexit position going into an election much easier, as then it becomes a choice of Remain vs lovely Tory Deal That Threatens the Union. They don't have to have Labour MP's campaigning against a Labour deal.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:23

Sanitary Naptime: May 29, 2006; MIWK!

On the Benn Act, isn�t it extension if no deal agreed? Like I know the whole point is to vote on the deal now, but what�s the legal definition of agreed here, because if the eu and gov have agreed on a deal but parliament hasn�t ratified it, does this matter?

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:23

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Still B.A.E posted:

Yes, that's exactly my point. How do you stop it though?

I don't know if you think I'd bought into the 'Jewish conspiracy' thing from my post, but I can assure you I haven't.

I don't think that sort of rabid zionism has as much support among anyone in the younger generations, it's more of an older people thing (in part because it's a useful proxy for military adventurism in the middle east, which is also an older thing, on the whole) and I don't think it's sustainable. I don't really know that there's anything you can do about it in the short term though beyond just... broadly ignoring it? It's not relevant to left wing politics, it's not something I would bother talking to people about unless they bring it up, and the kind of person who repeatedly brings it up isn't interested in listening to you anyway.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:23

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

RIP Britain, it had a good(?) run?

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:24

Sanitary Naptime: May 29, 2006; MIWK!

tithin posted:

RIP Britain, it had a good(?) run?

Just remember that the Lib Dem�s made this happen.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:25

stev: Jan 22, 2013; Please be excited.

Fair to say we're hosed?

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:25

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Sanitary Naptime posted:

On the Benn Act, isn�t it extension if no deal agreed? Like I know the whole point is to vote on the deal now, but what�s the legal definition of agreed here, because if the eu and gov have agreed on a deal but parliament hasn�t ratified it, does this matter?

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/enacted/data.htm

quote:

Duties in connection with the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union

(1)The condition in this subsection is that a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament a statement that the United Kingdom has concluded an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and a copy of the agreement and�

(a)the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown, and

(b)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the agreement has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and�

(i)the House of Lords has debated the motion, or

(ii)the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of two Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (a).

(2)The condition in this subsection is that a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament a statement that the United Kingdom is to leave the European Union without an agreement having been reached under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and�

(a)the statement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown in the following form�

�That this House approves the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on exit day, without a withdrawal agreement as defined in section 20(1) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018�, and

(b)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and�

(i)the House of Lords has debated the motion, or

(ii)the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of two Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (a).

(3)If neither of the conditions in subsection (1) or subsection (2) is satisfied, subsection (4) must be complied with no later than 19 October 2019.

(4)The Prime Minister must seek to obtain from the European Council an extension of the period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union ending at 11.00pm on 31 October 2019 by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in the Schedule to this Act requesting an extension of that period to 11.00pm on 31 January 2020 in order to debate and pass a Bill to implement the agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, including provisions reflecting the outcome of inter-party talks as announced by the Prime Minister on 21 May 2019, and in particular the need for the United Kingdom to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect the outcome of those inter-party talks.

(5)If, following a request for an extension under subsection (4) but before the end of 30 October 2019, the condition in subsection (1) or the condition in subsection (2) is met, the Prime Minister may withdraw or modify the request.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:26

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Still B.A.E posted:

Yes, that's exactly my point. How do you stop it though?

I don't know if you think I'd bought into the 'Jewish conspiracy' thing from my post, but I can assure you I haven't.

Nah, I don't think you have, but I do think we need a way to discuss it without sounding like we have.

Like any talk of conspiracies or special interests or anything is like a dogwhistle to the people wanting to come along and yell "Jews did 9/11" and is uncomfortably close to antisemitism.

But the people conspiring don't give a poo poo about being disingenuous and use antisemitism themselves like associating the diaspora with Israel and saying "being anti-wealthy is being antisemitic".

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:26

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

tithin posted:

RIP Britain, it had a good(?) run?

really sorry to be the stereotypical dumbass here but...ok what happens then? Like I see this threat used a lot but no one actually says what it means. What happens if the 31st happens and the deal failed, is it just instant hard brexit?

Or is this one of those 'lol we never had to make rules for it because why would this ever happen'

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:28

Jose: Jul 24, 2007; Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

he's 100% killed boris' deal lol

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:28

Sanitary Naptime: May 29, 2006; MIWK!

OwlFancier posted:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/enacted/data.htm

Okay, my reading of that says it has to be voted on and passed by parliament first (I think)

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:29

xtothez: Jan 4, 2004; College Slice

tithin posted:

RIP Britain, it had a good(?) run?

That reads like some careless or misleading editorialising.

Juncker saying there's "no need for an extension [right] now" isn't the same thing as completely ruling out an extension under all circumstances. There will be a need for an extension if Parliament votes for one with a referendum attached.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:29

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Sanitary Naptime posted:

Okay, my reading of that says it has to be voted on and passed by parliament first (I think)

That would also be my reading yes.

Also I wouldn't pay much attention to what juncker says.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:29

Jaeluni Asjil: Apr 18, 2018; Sorry I thought you were a landlord when I gave you your old avatar!

Still B.A.E posted:

Something that's been on my mind and I've been very concerned about is how the Labour antisemitism stuff can become something of a self fulfilling prophecy. You have all these ridiculous histrionics and bad faith attacks from right wing sources like Labour Friends of Israel or the Jewish chronicle, because they hate Labour's move leftwards under Corbyn, or they're just straight up Tories. My fear is that, as a result of this, people will see these endless attacks on themselves and their politics and start to think that there actually is some sort of Jewish conspiracy trying to suppress leftist movements. We've already seen elements of it with some ill advised statements about Zionist lobbies and stuff, and it's not as if people on the left are immune to some crank-like thinking at times. Am I doing people a disservice here? I don't know, it's just really frustrating that there seems to be no effective way to push back on it.

A friend with a keen interest in UK/US politics was over from Australia a few weeks ago. She said the sad thing about all these anti-semitism accusations being thrown at the left in both US and UK is that, until recently, whether someone was Jewish or not wasn't something she ever thought about. Now it is. She's a lecturer in humanities and visiting lecturer at a UK university. Now she puts all her notes through a 'is there any way this could be construed as anti-semitic' filter despite her subject area being completely unrelated to religion or Middle Eastern politics.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:29

Sanitary Naptime: May 29, 2006; MIWK!

sexpig by night posted:

really sorry to be the stereotypical dumbass here but...ok what happens then? Like I see this threat used a lot but no one actually says what it means. What happens if the 31st happens and the deal failed, is it just instant hard brexit?

Or is this one of those 'lol we never had to make rules for it because why would this ever happen'

The default is no deal turbo brexit, but as Jose just implied this could be enough to force some unity on ensuring this doesn�t pass to force a request for an extension the Lib Dem�s will gently caress it up

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:30

Barry Foster: Dec 24, 2007; What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

sexpig by night posted:

really sorry to be the stereotypical dumbass here but...ok what happens then? Like I see this threat used a lot but no one actually says what it means. What happens if the 31st happens and the deal failed, is it just instant hard brexit?

Or is this one of those 'lol we never had to make rules for it because why would this ever happen'

If it's not a bluff then yes, hard brexit or his shithouse deal.

If it's not a bluff then we're hosed and that's it.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:30

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

He's probably ruled out an extension because doing so encourages everyone who wants to avoid no deal to vote for the deal

Then when the vote fails he can go "given the unforseen circumstances..." and un-ruleout an extension

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:30

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

sexpig by night posted:

really sorry to be the stereotypical dumbass here but...ok what happens then? Like I see this threat used a lot but no one actually says what it means. What happens if the 31st happens and the deal failed, is it just instant hard brexit?

Or is this one of those 'lol we never had to make rules for it because why would this ever happen'

if my take on it is "right", then yeah, if parliament doesn't sign off on this new deal, it's no deal brexit on the 31st.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:30

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

tithin posted:

RIP Britain, it had a good(?) run?

He said the same thing in March. He wants this deal to pass the commons and he will say whatever will help Johnson achieve that.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:30

Haramstufe Rot: Jun 24, 2016

The EU will at the very least agree to an extension to debate and pass the new deal. It would make zero sense to agree to a deal and then let the UK Brexit just because of timing issues. And if the deal is rejected in parliament, then most likely they will still agree to an extension so we can do the whole "vote many times on the same deal" dance again.

So chill my dudes

Edit: Except if the deal doesn't pass and Boris doesn't ask for an extension, in which case, laffo

Only sane scenario: Bill is debated and Boris asks for an extension until January. Bill may be rejected, but Brexit is off until January. See you then!

Bizarro scenario: Boris doesn't ask for extension, bill doesn't pass, UK exits EU even though a deal exists.

Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Oct 17, 2019

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:32

Tarnop: Nov 25, 2013; Pull me out

Juncker apparently doesn't actually get a say on whether an extension is granted

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:34

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

caps on caps on caps posted:

Edit: Except if the deal doesn't pass and Boris doesn't ask for an extension, in which case, laffo

He doesn't have a choice, he's forced to do so by law.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:35

Haramstufe Rot: Jun 24, 2016

Tarnop posted:

Juncker apparently doesn't actually get a say on whether an extension is granted

The EU has shown many times that it will go to all lengths to get a deal, otherwise the UK would be out already after all this bullshit for months. Why should this change now? The only one pressing for a definite Brexit is Boris

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:37

Still B.A.E: Mar 24, 2012

Eh, I'm not sure I got across exactly what I was trying to say properly there. Either way, I'm yet to see any left wing acquaintances ranting about Jewish people, so maybe I shouldn't worry about it so much and have more faith in people not being taken in by bullshit.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:38

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Tesseraction posted:

He doesn't have a choice, he's forced to do so by law.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:38

Eschenique: Jul 19, 2019

What about a peaceful annexation of the UK via Ireland by EU forces?

What's the royal navy going to do? rust and sink to block the path with its 5 remaining hulls?

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:39

seizure later: Apr 18, 2007

Tesseraction posted:

He doesn't have a choice, he's forced to do so by law.

something which the Tories and Boris in particular are very respectful of, and have faced severe consequences previously when they have acted against it

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:40

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Still B.A.E posted:

Eh, I'm not sure I got across exactly what I was trying to say properly there. Either way, I'm yet to see any left wing acquaintances ranting about Jewish people, so maybe I shouldn't worry about it so much and have more faith in people not being taken in by bullshit.

I don't think you're at a particularly large risk of people already on the left going that way, because they're disinclined to trust the papers anyway, you have to be or you can't form left politics.

But the overlap of antisemitism/anitcapitalism due to antisemites consciously co-opting the messaging is a much older problem and one to watch out for anyway. Just keep an eye out as you normally would.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:40

chestnut santabag: Jul 3, 2006

caps on caps on caps posted:

The EU will at the very least agree to an extension to debate and pass the new deal. It would make zero sense to agree to a deal and then let the UK Brexit just because of timing issues. And if the deal is rejected in parliament, then most likely they will still agree to an extension so we can do the whole "vote many times on the same deal" dance again.

So chill my dudes

Edit: Except if the deal doesn't pass and Boris doesn't ask for an extension, in which case, laffo

Only sane scenario: Bill is debated and Boris asks for an extension until January. Bill may be rejected, but Brexit is off until January. See you then!

Bizarro scenario: Boris doesn't ask for extension, bill doesn't pass, UK exits EU even though a deal exists.

Except I think they're voting on the new deal this Saturday and if it passes then its done hence not needing an extension (assuming other things like referendums or GEs get attached to it).

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:41

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

Unemployment figures are too low by about 3 million people, according to the OECD https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/17/unemployment-figures-should-be-millions-higher-says-research

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:43

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 25, 2024 18:46

Rustybear: Nov 16, 2006; what the thunder said

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

He's probably ruled out an extension because doing so encourages everyone who wants to avoid no deal to vote for the deal

Then when the vote fails he can go "given the unforseen circumstances..." and un-ruleout an extension

It's this, he also said there would be no renegotiation of May's deal.

# ? Oct 17, 2019 14:43

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

«‹›338 »