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FizFashizzle posted:Kasich would have had some ridiculous food related scandal that would have torpedo'd him because this would have been in the beforetimes. He would have eaten pizza with a fork and lost the support of his base. 
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Oct 22, 2019 18:14
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The shy trump voter thing was a myth, Nate went into this in detail a long time ago. Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him?
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Oct 22, 2019 18:22
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The shy trump voter thing was a myth, Nate went into this in detail a long time ago. Trump has made people more open about their odious opinions, not less. And his word salad and obvious bullshitting give anyone who is still timid cover to support him. "Oh he's just saying that to rile up liberals, he doesn't really mean it" and such.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:22
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Nocturtle posted:What's the Democrats plan for dealing with admin officials who have ignored their congressional subpoena? This article lays out what can be done but I haven't seen any indication that the Democrats are taking any action beyond the civil lawsuit route. The articles also includes a list of everyone that ignored one so far: the civil lawsuit route is just fine (at the moment), it's just slow (at the moment)
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Oct 22, 2019 18:24
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Brony Car posted:Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him? You believe him when he says things you want to be true and ignore him when he says things you don’t, obviously.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:24
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TyrantWD posted:No he wouldn't. Any other Republican, with the exception of Ted Cruz, would have beaten Hillary and probably won the popular vote by a decent margin. My precinct in 2016 went 94% for Hillary, if they had Kasich or Rubio, it would probably have been a 65-35 or even 60-40. this is not at all true trump won because he consolidated all republicans behind him, even the ones who hated him, but his saying the racist part out loud and his being seen as a "moderate" made him attractive to the voters who swung the three key states in his favor, who all don't really like the republican economic policy he repudiated (during the campaign, and probably his biggest mistake was embracing it once elected)
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Oct 22, 2019 18:24
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Brony Car posted:Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him? Believe him when he analyzes numbers, don’t listen to him when he acts like a pundit
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Oct 22, 2019 18:24
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ColonelMuttonchops posted:Whats the neighborhood like? That looks like a law thats tailor made to arrest black kids. To piggy back on that, in VA what is the for profit prison system like?
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Oct 22, 2019 18:24
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https://twitter.com/benyc/status/1186690494694383622
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Oct 22, 2019 18:26
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Brony Car posted:Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him? When it’s about numbers and stats believe him. When it’s about political opinions keep a critical eye.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:30
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e: you know what this was a dumb post and i'm deleting it.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:31
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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1186694376988315648
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Oct 22, 2019 18:31
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I wish Twitter would provide some context on who House members are, because there are 435 of them and I don’t know “Lynch” from Adam.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:31
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oh snap
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Oct 22, 2019 18:32
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Gatts posted:To piggy back on that, in VA what is the for profit prison system like? We only have 1 private prison in Virginia, the Lawrenceville Correctional Center. I think its run by GEO Group and it only has a capacity of 1,536. But as a whole VA has 38 state prisons that can hold up to 28,799 prisoners at a time so we still have a hefty prison population. From what I recall, we only have about 4 percent of our prison population in private prisons compared to the grossness of Montana which has like 38 percent of their incarcerated in private prisons. Hawaii is in 2nd place for lovely prisons with a total of 28 percent. IIRC correctly it is only a minimum-security facility because the VA Gov doesn't trust privatization with higher security penitentiaries. It is still lovely, but there is a big push to get rid of it entirely spearheaded by the Attorney General as well as getting rid of cash bail and Herring is coming out for legalization too and retroactive decriminalization for nonviolent offenders. so some movement is happening.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:33
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friendbot2000 posted:https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1186488260916330496 I sent him 50 this morning
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Oct 22, 2019 18:34
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Brony Car posted:Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him? I'm not sure about his political stance but his election analysis leading up to Hillary's loss was pretty spot on, so I generally trust his numbers and interpretations more than most. Reminder that he was the only poll aggregator giving Trump a serious chance of winning because he accounted for the chance that state-level polling had correlated error. Which he got tons of poo poo for by other aggregators and people on this forum. And then ended up being correct.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:34
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https://twitter.com/byrdinator/status/1186693129623212037 translated, i think this means "sondland's gonna come back and decide just how committed to perjuring himself to protect trump he's feeling"
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Oct 22, 2019 18:35
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from the initial leaks, it sounds like simpson is right here: https://twitter.com/TheViewFromLL2/status/1186696094895480833 we know that Sondland testified with the White House's approval and probably lied a lot (or lied about how he "no longer recalls" whatever), and it sounds like Taylor is giving them what they need to show that that poo poo was lies e: damnit ew
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Oct 22, 2019 18:35
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Ogmius815 posted:I wish Twitter would provide some context on who House members are, because there are 435 of them and I don’t know “Lynch” from Adam. https://twitter.com/kombiz/status/1186691316979306507
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Oct 22, 2019 18:36
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ryde posted:I'm not sure about his political stance but his election analysis leading up to Hillary's loss was pretty spot on, so I generally trust his numbers and interpretations more than most. Which makes it so stupid how he caught more poo poo than anyone else for being “wrong” about the election. He gave Trump something like a 35% chance of winning and specifically explained that his path to victory was flipping those Midwest states by narrow margins.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:36
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The shy trump voter thing was a myth, Nate went into this in detail a long time ago. I hope so, but why should I not believe the same people who voted for him despite having a negative opinion once won’t do it again? If I remember right, Nate’s version has been “there was an average size polling miss” and his guess on what the miss means is still just a guess.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:38
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Still not saying his state or first name, but there's a gender, that's a start. Seriously dudes, just say their first name if not also their state and party (R-NY or whatever is not that hard really!) edit: okay I figured out he's from MA because of constituents in Boston. Still, come on man.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:39
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Which makes it so stupid how he caught more poo poo than anyone else for being “wrong” about the election. He gave Trump something like a 35% chance of winning and specifically explained that his path to victory was flipping those Midwest states by narrow margins. It’s simple. The media doesn’t understand probability, much like his goon critics. yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Oct 22, 2019 |
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Oct 22, 2019 18:41
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Brony Car posted:Can someone give me a handy guide on when to believe Nate Silver and when to ignore him? If he's ONLY talking about what the polls are saying, and only that, he's probably correct. The main reason he's so hated is that he puts basically no stock in the rabid Bernie supporter's* narrative that tacking hard left is the key to victory now, everywhere, and forever. *I plan to vote for Bernie in the primary, you know the types I'm talking about.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:42
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To elaborate a little bit, civil lawsuits about congressional subpoenas may accelerate significantly if/when we get a couple circuit opinions going "lol no" on the administration's various arguments, whereupon lower judges / the DC circuit can just point to previous recent precedent and wrap things up in maybe even days rather than weeks or months. This would be pretty cool. On the other hand, the longer the delay the worse civil court enforcement becomes as we inch closer to the election. That's not really a concern right now, but it will be in like February or March if courts still aren't rubber stamping subpoenas.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:43
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https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1186696935287209985
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Oct 22, 2019 18:44
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GreyjoyBastard posted:To elaborate a little bit, civil lawsuits about congressional subpoenas may accelerate significantly if/when we get a couple circuit opinions going "lol no" on the administration's various arguments, whereupon lower judges / the DC circuit can just point to previous recent precedent and wrap things up in maybe even days rather than weeks or months. This would be pretty cool. i think part of the calculus here is that all the dominos are falling without the subpoenas and they've got republicans on the ropes, unable to settle on a coherent narrative, so why waste a lot of time trying to get documents you don't need? and if you're tied up in litigation over those, it becomes harder to move forward because, supposedly, you need those documents/testimony.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:45
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Nate is Twitter Nostradamus.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:45
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Oct 22, 2019 18:46
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sondland perjury confirmed https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/1186699669994389506 sondland is a relatively rich guy who isn't a diehard trumpist (he seems to have just bought his way to an ambassadorship because he wanted one, he was a jeb! guy) so putting the screws to him may produce results
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Oct 22, 2019 18:47
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https://twitter.com/goodbillionaire/status/1186414385599782912?s=21
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Oct 22, 2019 18:47
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evilweasel posted:https://twitter.com/byrdinator/status/1186693129623212037 Contemporaneous notes are a game changer right? Sounds like Lynch throughly covered his rear end here. I would say that you'd think Sondland and the WH would have known that someone like Lynch would have notes, but they are incompetent morons who likely assume everyone else is as incompetent as they are.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:48
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Literally that scene from Silicon Valley.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:48
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Isn’t this from a while back?
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Oct 22, 2019 18:48
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https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1186699197006921728 lol "god you think that guy was damaging, have you seen the other witnesses? "that's the defense you're going with? really?" "oh would you look at the time, gotta run"
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Oct 22, 2019 18:48
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Shifty Pony posted:Contemporaneous notes are a game changer right? Sounds like Lynch throughly covered his rear end here. sondland disregarded white house instructions not to testify, likely because as a Big Titan of Industry he thought he could lie his way out of trouble oops
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Oct 22, 2019 18:49
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Flip Yr Wig posted:Eh, health care polling is extremely sensitive to how it's phrased. Yes, but polls like this are pretty good evidence of that effect in both directions. Whenever people talk about healthcare polling being sensitive to phrasing, they almost universally mean that people start to oppose single payer once you spell it out for them. Polling like this indicates what should have been pretty obvious: people love their healthcare plans not because those plans are good, but because they don't understand them. None of this is news, though. Good healthcare policies should be backed because they're good policies, and then those policies should be marketed and defended until you have the polling numbers that you need.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:50
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Oct 22, 2019 18:50
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Twitter needs to ban Trump.
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Oct 22, 2019 18:51
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