UKMT Red October 2019: Lies, dem libs, and polling companies.

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Pesmerga: Aug 1, 2005; So nice to eat you

Tijuana Bibliophile posted:

this guy

That is not a healthy looking man.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:14

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# ? May 26, 2024 05:04

Tijuana Bibliophile: Dec 30, 2008; Scratchmo

Since I'm unsure all of you have the privilege of an independent premium subscription :smuggo:

_{_{or turn noscript on}} here's the entire take

quote:

I was going to pre-empt what follows by placing it under the header of fantasy politics. But since every aspect of our politics feels rooted in fantasy, and not the good kind, that is far too indistinct.

So file it under the label of idealistic politics when I raise the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn standing aside to let a comrade lead Labour into the next election.

The caveat about opinion polls is familiar, and they could be mistaken yet again. Even if not, the figures might shift during a campaign held at a moment of extreme volatility.

But the numbers are so abysmal that anticipating anything but a tragic outcome for Labour has become an article of faith. And faith in Corbyn has dwindled close to invisibility.

Hearing a snatch of �Seven Nation Army� during this morning�s rugby semi-final in Japan was a poignant reminder that you never hear �Oh-ohhh Jeremy Corbyn� any more. At the anti-Brexit rally in Parliament Square eight days ago, the chant was amended to a scornful �Where�s Jeremy Corbyn?�

The �absolute boy� has vanished beneath a foaming tide of dither and confusion. He has lost the dressing room in the guise of his most senior colleagues.

Most disturbingly, he has lost those who deified him in 2017. If ever a poll struck mortal dread into those who share his values, and are nauseated by the thought of a majority Tory government, it was the finding that voters aged 18-24 prefer Boris Johnson.

Why they do so � Johnson�s alleged star power, or the drip-drip-drip of dementedly hostile media coverage of Corbyn, or a sense of Brextrayal � may intrigue academic psephologists. But what matters is the fact. A demographic that has favoured Labour by enormous margins for decades no longer prefers it at all.

Almost every other poll is mortifying. His negative approval ratings are unprecedented. In London the Tories lead. A national survey released today has them on 40 per cent, 16 ahead of Labour (and one ahead of Labour and the Lib Dems combined).

But it�s that yoof statistic that liquefies the bowels. When the demigod of Glastonburys past can no longer fill a yurt, it�s more than a wake-up call. It�s a klaxon call through amplifiers turned up to 11 to get off the main stage.

Over the years, the likes of me have written the same about other terminal liabilities to their movements and most cherished beliefs.

It was bludgeoningly obvious that the Gordon Brown of 2009 and post-tuition fees Nick Clegg were destined, if they stayed, to become the enablers of policies that were anathema to them.

If Brown had resigned in 2009, and Clegg in 2014, there is every chance that austerity and Brexit would have been avoided.

Yet of all the pieces of advice offered by Clint Eastwood, the last one the generic frontline politician is psychologically capable of taking is Dirty Harry�s �A man�s gotta know his limitations�.

Labour will not vote for general election unless Boris Johnson takes no-deal Brexit off the table, warns Jeremy Corbyn
Not for more than half a century has an Anglo-American leader fallen on his sword in this context. The young voters on whom Democratic candidates depend had turned against Lyndon Johnson over Vietnam, and were chanting �Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?�. His approval numbers were sub-Trumpian. Accepting he was a fatal liability, he declined to run for the nomination.

In the event Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey in 1968, primarily with racist wolf-whistling (ring any bells?). But it was only by a whisker in the popular vote, and had Bobby Kennedy lived the Democrats might well have held the White House.

An arch political realist recognised that he was electoral poison to his party, and so almost saved it from a defeat that shaped his country (and the world) immeasurably for the worse.

One can admire Corbyn in many ways, as I do, without regarding him as an arch realist. If he isn�t a stubborn fantasist, he is an idealist. He has convictions for which he has fought, until recently from the wilderness, since not long after LBJ rammed the Civil Rights Act through congress.

You needn�t be a close student of the law of unintended consequences to sense that what seriously threatens those beliefs is him remaining to fight for them.

The familiar objection to replacing a leader this close to an election is the absence of a natural successor. In this case, John McDonnell is oven ready.

I appreciate McDonnell�s insistence that the next Labour leader must be female, but this is an epic national emergency. We are weeks from an election highly likely to saddle us with five years of a possibly sociopathic rogue, his cabinet confederacy of dunces, and a more brutal Brexit than this country can bear.

All the values for which Corbyn has struggled his entire life are in graver danger than ever before. He is on the precipice of unwittingly ushering in an era of unparalleled horror for the poor, vulnerable and dispossessed. He is on the brink of handing an elective dictatorship to a charlatan to whose myriad obscenities may be added an alleged intent to rig the system by suppressing millions of votes.

Decisiveness has not been the defining hallmark of Corbyn�s leadership. But there is one decision left to him that could redeem his legacy and give Labour a fighting chance. If it seems fantastical or idealistic to expect an act of self-sacrifice, it only seems that way. It is the only realistic choice he has left.

your welcum

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:15

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Pesmerga posted:

Not really being discussed,but Bercow is retiring at the worst possible time, because who knows what the gently caress is going to happen on November 1st.

Edit: I mean, just imagine it’s Edward Gammon Leigh!

The Speaker is traditionally drawn from the opposition benches. Bercow's replacement should be Labour, unless Pete Wishart gets it.

If a General Election is going to be called within days, though, he may agree to remain in the chair until the end of wash-up and make his replacement the last act of this Parliament.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:17

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

mehall posted:

God, gently caress daylight savings.

Already seeing the difference of winter time, it's almost dusk out before I've even left for work, instead of being full night until after I'm at work

Course, that'll only help for a few weeks until it's just dark all the time, but honestly having more of that in September and October would help my mood.

In other 'gently caress DST' news, I'm awake more than an hour early because it got light an hour earlier than normal.

Why the gently caress do we do this to ourselves?

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:18

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

thespaceinvader posted:

In other 'gently caress DST' news, I'm awake more than an hour early because it got light an hour earlier than normal.

Why the gently caress do we do this to ourselves?

Farmers.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:23

Venomous: Nov 7, 2011

Strongly agreed that Pete Wishart should be the speaker. gently caress the old boys' club tbh

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:24

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

all folks with an interest in politics should read more material which shares their rough politics but from different, contradictory bases; it is the low-effort way to get at least some variation in one's food-for-thought diet

i.e., if you're a lefty, look for lefties defending their particular take against other lefty philosophies. There's a dozen kinds of Marxism out there alone

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:26

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Jedit posted:

Farmers.

Farmers hate the DST. Or the people who work on farms do at any rate.

Having all your supply and trade trucks come an hour off from when the animals expect to be fed or milked (the animals do not change their watches) is a huge pain, and plant based farming starts when it's light, no matter the hour.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:28

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

I happen to like my ideological chicken nugget and chips diet.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:29

Tijuana Bibliophile: Dec 30, 2008; Scratchmo

Jedit posted:

Farmers.

nah

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:31

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

People who stay in rural and suburban areas, but who are not farmers

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:32

Borrovan: Aug 15, 2013; IT IS ME.
🧑‍💼
I AM THERESA MAY

ronya posted:

Either way there are still people who are both too poor (on a lifetime income basis) to rent nor mortgage-purchase, nor so dysfunctional that they are the long-term homeless; that group is not really on any party's priority list nor the main subjects of this kind of housing policy tweak

Theory is that a massive programme of social housing creation should take care of people who aren't in the position to rent or buy, whilst the lower property prices resulting from more homes on the market will free a bunch of people who could buy if the market wasn't so inflated, so the remaining rental properties are freed up for people who actually are in the position that renting suits them better. Then, in the longer term, reducing the perception that homes are an investment whilst massively increasing the availability of social housing moves us away from the societal view that private ownership of your home is important, and closer to the view of housing as a human right.

This is why Mr "Better Things Aren't Possible" is such a loving idiot, as if the attitudes that his argument is predicated on are immutable constants rather than just a reflection of individualist neoliberal society. That and the rape analogy.

Jedit posted:

The Speaker is traditionally drawn from the opposition benches. Bercow's replacement should be Labour, unless Pete Wishart gets it.

I'm sure the current Government & all other members of the House will have the utmost respect for convention this time

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:33

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Part of the reason he's retiring before an election is to try to keep the speaker apolitical, because this parliament is likely to struggle to get an explicitly political speaker.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:37

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

I just don�t understand why Jeremy Corbyn wants to leave and retire from politics before Christmas?

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:39

feedmegin: Jul 30, 2008

Exioce posted:

I'm just being an Old Guy advising others to moderate their expectations, I guess, and I don't expect anyone to actually pay any heed. Why would you, when we didn't?

What age are you exactly, random pretentious stranger? We have plenty of older people as regulars in this thread, it's not, as you seem to think, staffed exclusively with starry eyed undergraduate naifs.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:43

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Like, average thread age is probably mid to late 30s unless I miss my guess.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:46

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

On the subject of housing, John Harris argues here that housing insecurity is a primary contributer to Brexit anxieties and resolving it would dissipate much of the tensions that have grown up in the country:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/housing-crisis-houses-brexit-vote

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:47

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

thespaceinvader posted:

Like, average thread age is probably mid to late 30s unless I miss my guess.

I'm dragging it up a little, Jaeluni even more so.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:47

Josef bugman: Nov 17, 2011; Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

I turned 30 this year.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:49

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

thespaceinvader posted:

Like, average thread age is probably mid to late 30s unless I miss my guess.

I'd say higher, depending on what kind of average. Median age mid to late 30s, mean age early-mid 40s based on the seeming complete lack of teens and the posters we have who can remember Nixon landing on the moon.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:50

Oh dear me: Aug 14, 2012; I have burned numerous saucepans, sometimes right through the metal

feedmegin posted:

What age are you exactly, random pretentious stranger?

Over 60 or lying, I reckon. I don't remember GenX having any expectations or fire at all.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:51

OwlFancier: Aug 22, 2013

Remembering nixon landing on the moon seems like something you'd start remembering at age 80+

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:52

clear eyes full farts: Jul 3, 2007; the uk is just awful
It's a fake democracy
with free education and healthcare as long as you are a dosser and I am trapped here

lets find out

https://www.strawpoll.me/18856928

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:55

Pesmerga: Aug 1, 2005; So nice to eat you

Jedit posted:

The Speaker is traditionally drawn from the opposition benches. Bercow's replacement should be Labour, unless Pete Wishart gets it.

If a General Election is going to be called within days, though, he may agree to remain in the chair until the end of wash-up and make his replacement the last act of this Parliament.

Yeah, sure, but does anything at the moment about this government or Parliament suggest to you that regular procedures are going to be followed?

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:55

Borrovan: Aug 15, 2013; IT IS ME.
🧑‍💼
I AM THERESA MAY

The median UKMT poster is a 34 year old postgraduate educated cishet white man who works in IT, and therefore it is essential that all posts cater exclusively to this demographic which is why we tell one another to gently caress off so often

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:55

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Borrovan posted:

Theory is that a massive programme of social housing creation should take care of people who aren't in the position to rent or buy, whilst the lower property prices resulting from more homes on the market will free a bunch of people who could buy if the market wasn't so inflated, so the remaining rental properties are freed up for people who actually are in the position that renting suits them better. Then, in the longer term, reducing the perception that homes are an investment whilst massively increasing the availability of social housing moves us away from the societal view that private ownership of your home is important, and closer to the view of housing as a human right.

A massive programme of anything creation would solve many problems, but it requires a great deal more consensus than exists in the UK...

The political trap on housing - one that has existed ever since Homes Before Roads vividly demonstrated the end of an era - is something I've remarked on before ITT, it's the two-blocks-and-a-photo-op trap. Namely, political momentum on housing is totally satiated by building two blocks (with the latest fashionable architecture/technology/social engineering of choice) and declaring mission accomplished, because voters are everywhere innumerate. In the meanwhile, any actual big pushes would drastically change the nature of local culture, transport, social makeup, industries, etc and would hence be much more politically costly, without being rewarded by those who are satisfied by two blocks. Hence: big pushes are always severely limited in their scope. A country that cannot build a third runway at its one flagship airport or build a single high-speed rail line should not gamble on new developments housing hundreds of thousands of people

On the latter part - housing as a human right - I think it could occur if there an accompanying increase in toleration for government oversight of one's conduct regarding one's home. And not an idealized government, but an actually existing government as elected by 40%-Tory-Britain... the Soviets used to simply arrest vagrants who rejected the labour dormitories made available to them, but the more realistic scenario is a renewal of wars on substance abuse that we all know and possibly love, given the prevalent influence of this problem. And since the latter is not coalescing - quite the reverse - we should expect enthusiasm for the concept, or paying for that concept, to continue to diminish

ronya fucked around with this message at 10:00 on Oct 28, 2019

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:56

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Borrovan posted:

The median UKMT poster is a 34 year old postgraduate educated cishet white man who works in IT,

Gimme two weeks and I'll be 5 for 6

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:59

thespaceinvader: Mar 30, 2011; The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

clear eyes full farts posted:

lets find out

https://www.strawpoll.me/18856928

I'#m calling it in advance the modal age is pissflaps.

Also the 7 in the font on that site is weird.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 09:59

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Borrovan posted:

The median UKMT poster is a 34 year old postgraduate educated cishet white man who works in IT, and therefore it is essential that all posts cater exclusively to this demographic which is why we tell one another to gently caress off so often

Joke's on you, I'm actually a 34 year old postgraduate educated cishet white man who works with spreadsheets.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:00

That Italian Guy: Jul 25, 2012; We need the equivalent of the shrimp = small pastry avatar, but for ambulances and their mysteries now.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

It�d probably be a good idea to get in front of the main wave of applicants though. Assuming it�s inevitable of course.

It's also a rather long process (several months) so if you think you may have a need for it, don't wait until you absolutely have to have it.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:03

Braggart: Nov 10, 2011; always thank the rock hider

clear eyes full farts posted:

lets find out

https://www.strawpoll.me/18856928

Holy poo poo, my demographic has a plurality. Let's take over the thread and charge everyone else rent!

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:07

mehall: Aug 27, 2010

Hah!
Like I graduated.

Anyway, I'm 30 and work in IT, white cishet.

E; and to whoever told me to move south - no, how about we just don't arse around with goddamned dst?

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:09

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Oh dear me posted:

Over 60 or lying, I reckon. I don't remember GenX having any expectations or fire at all.

He sounds like a younger person who has managed to get on the housing ladder, but regards the natural unit of society as the individual and privilege theory as suspect because it means self confrontation.

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Gimme two weeks and I'll be 5 for 6

Congratulations on turning gay. :toot:

ronya posted:

On the latter part - housing as a human right - I think it could occur if there an accompanying increase in toleration for government oversight of one's conduct regarding one's home. And not an idealized government, but an actually existing government as elected by 40%-Tory-Britain... the Soviets used to simply arrest vagrants who rejected the labour dormitories made available to them, but the more realistic scenario is a renewal of wars on substance abuse that we all know and possibly love, given the prevalent influence of this problem. And since the latter is not coalescing - quite the reverse - we should expect enthusiasm for the concept, or paying for that concept, to continue to diminish

The wars on substance abuse vastly contribute to the homeless and prison populations though, and I think people are starting to see that. And if they start mass arrests of homeless people or precarious tenants then the argument "we're already paying to house them in prison, why not just pay to house them" can easily gain traction.

thespaceinvader posted:

I'#m calling it in advance the modal age is pissflaps.

This is the dawning of the age of contrarious.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:13

Braggart: Nov 10, 2011; always thank the rock hider

Pesmerga posted:

Not really being discussed,but Bercow is retiring at the worst possible time, because who knows what the gently caress is going to happen on November 1st.

Edit: I mean, just imagine it�s Edward Gammon Leigh!

Bercow would likely lose his seat because the Tories and their voters consider him public enemy number (joint) one* for not waving through their shenanigans. They've threatened to run a candidate against him which is not the Done Thing, but when has that ever mattered to this government?

And also since the 90s the speaker has been chosen from her madge's loyal opposition**, so if we get a Labour government first then we could get a Tory speaker, and you know it'll be some rabid oval office dedicated to stymying anything Labour tries to pass through the house, democratic mandate be damned. We're talking Tea Party levels of spiteful obstructionism here, and with the media onside*** you know the public would get the impression it's all down to Labour's uselessness and completely discredits leftism, which cannot ever work. So much for a new kind of politics!

* This ranking is shared by everyone the Tories hate and cannot easily destroy.

** I expect the Tories to be in favour of convention in this specific instance for some reason.

*** lol, anyone think the media would do anything but hate on a Labour government that they expect to pursue press regulation? And also the whole "rich people hate leftism and own the media outlets" thing.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:28

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1188748108764721152

Now Jeremy, time to execute Order 66

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:29

Pistol_Pete: Sep 15, 2007; Oven Wrangler

Any significant shift on housing policy would necessarily involve confronting 3 significant power groups: landlords, the banks and nimbys, all of who benefit from the current situation. A big step forward would be if renters were more proactive and joined tenant's advocacy groups such as Acorn. If Acorn had a million members instead of a few thousand, I think you'd see a LOT more movement on solving the housing crisis.

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:29

ronya: Nov 8, 2010; I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Guavanaut posted:

The wars on substance abuse vastly contribute to the homeless and prison populations though, and I think people are starting to see that. And if they start mass arrests of homeless people or precarious tenants then the argument "we're already paying to house them in prison, why not just pay to house them" can easily gain traction.

The movement is toward harm reduction - so neither detaining nor housing addicts, and relying on geography to keep the problem out of the hair of the middle class

# ? Oct 28, 2019 10:30