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Merlot Brougham posted:From the little digging I did before I cashed out (for a few bucks playing swings on No), the filing fee in Alabama is $2500. The petiton requirements are either 500 sigs statewide, or 50 sigs from each of the 7 congressional districts. Those are expensive signatures if he paid 2500 for them. to bloomberg 50 bucks a signature is like 0.01 cents per signature to you or me
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Nov 9, 2019 02:00
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A good question would be that if you think he somehow spent less than $5k there, does he intend to stop spending immediately? Is this some troll of the mainstream media and/or Joe Biden. I think the odds of that are less than the eighty cents price would suggest.
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Nov 9, 2019 03:24
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here's a link to the market in question btw, up to 81 now https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6075/Will-Mike-Bloomberg-file-to-run-for-president-by-1-31
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Nov 9, 2019 03:32
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CassandraZara posted:A good question would be that if you think he somehow spent less than $5k there, does he intend to stop spending immediately? Is this some troll of the mainstream media and/or Joe Biden. I think the odds of that are less than the eighty cents price would suggest. I'm not suggesting anything, and I mostly agree with you. I just don't believe the actions in Alabama pushed him beyond the terms of that particular market resolving YES. That market could very likely still resolve yes, I was just throwing out the info I found.
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Nov 9, 2019 06:15
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Shear Modulus posted:to bloomberg 50 bucks a signature is like 0.01 cents per signature to you or me I know it wouldn't be a problem for his pocketbook if he overpaid for services by 5000%, but he didn't get rich in the first place by behaving that way and it doesn't cost that much for paid petitioning, that's all I'm saying. If he is serious, the next filing deadline should be happening soon in some other state that I haven't bothered to look up the details for and this issue will be settled.
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Nov 9, 2019 06:18
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Get a job gathering signatures and then just bail and throw them away. Call it a strike for better optics if you need to.
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Nov 9, 2019 06:25
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It isn't yet clear to me if Bloomberg is going to actually file with the FEC (which is the basis for market resolution). The filing today may just be a necessary step to keep his options open. My guess is that he does file, though.
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Nov 9, 2019 07:32
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taqueso posted:Get a job gathering signatures and then just bail and throw them away. Call it a strike for better optics if you need to. you go to jail for that
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Nov 9, 2019 17:22
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Hillary Run is spiking again, if anyone wants to hop on the No train. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614/Will-Hillary-Clinton-run-for-president-in-2020
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Nov 13, 2019 07:46
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Vox Nihili posted:Hillary Run is spiking again, if anyone wants to hop on the No train. I really ought to except all my free money is still in the Bloomberg market (which is still the easiest money on PredictIt). Also she definitely wants to jump in. I was thrilled to sell my YES shares at 12c but I’m not sure I want to spend 80c to bet against her hubris.
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Nov 13, 2019 18:48
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Bloomberg's hubris is loving bank tho
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Nov 13, 2019 20:15
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Benchmarks for the Louisiana election tonight. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195852155510493184 
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Nov 17, 2019 01:11
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I’d sell these thousand bloomberg shares if I didn’t sell my Bernie shares to buy them, eating a loss and watching the share price go up two cents since I sold them.
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Nov 20, 2019 19:51
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yeah weirdly all my bernie4prez shares sold at a dece price yesterday
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Nov 20, 2019 22:05
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This one's for Joey Knish: I hadn't followed a debate in real time prior to the last one. It was wild. Unfortunately, I had my available money locked against Biden early so just had to ride it out. Sniped some Louisiana shares while the gamblers were liquidating to put more into the debate market. "I play for money" - Joey Knish
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Nov 24, 2019 00:48
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Can anyone explain why people are buying shares for Hil to win primaries in states where the filing deadline has passed? Arkansas at 95c no seems like free money, given that the filing deadline was 3 weeks ago. Hell, a 95c no seems like a good bet even in states where the filing deadline hasn't passed - I doubt she'll run, and even if she does, no one wants to vote for someone who already lost the general (to trump, no less). Primary is only 93 days off there, so its not like you'd even need to hold these shares that long.
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Dec 1, 2019 21:00
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Betting on extreme DNC fuckery? TBH I have no idea, probably just amateur 'investors' that don't know wtf is going on
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Dec 1, 2019 21:13
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drk posted:Can anyone explain why people are buying shares for Hil to win primaries in states where the filing deadline has passed? Arkansas at 95c no seems like free money, given that the filing deadline was 3 weeks ago. Hell, a 95c no seems like a good bet even in states where the filing deadline hasn't passed - I doubt she'll run, and even if she does, no one wants to vote for someone who already lost the general (to trump, no less). Primary is only 93 days off there, so its not like you'd even need to hold these shares that long. There's a coterie of insane conservatives who think Hillary is going to be arbitrarily coronated and are buying her shares up everywhere. It's free money but it won't pay out for a long time, so it's hardly worth it.
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Dec 1, 2019 21:45
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I'm talking about the individual states, many of which vote on Super Tues (3/3/20) - thats only 93 days away, and presumably the markets will settle not long after that in most cases. Better annualized return than the nomination or general election market, though shes not going to win those either. Lotta dumb money in these markets though, I mean Bloomberg at double digits? I can almost understand the YangGang pumping up his infinitesimal chances, but who's excited for El Bloombito? (the answer is conservatives who've had a few too many beers, isnt it)
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Dec 1, 2019 23:05
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drk posted:Lotta dumb money in these markets I know, it's so loving funny Hillary No is literally free money, these people are nuts
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Dec 1, 2019 23:07
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bloomberg is spending so much money on his campaign already that him allocating a hundred grand on keeping his prediction market price high so that tv talking heads keep saying "well his polling may he poo poo but the prediction markets remain bullish on bloomberg" would be a rounding error. hell he could probably do it for the price of one of his seemingly hundreds of 30-second ads on primetime football games
Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 03:06 on Dec 2, 2019 |
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Dec 1, 2019 23:53
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I had the same  theory, but given that less than $10k would buy the entire sell-no book and move him to 21c right now, if him or his campaign is trying to influence the prediction market, they arent doing a very good job.Also, please feel free to buy my overpriced no's Mr B
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Dec 2, 2019 03:45
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I finally dumped a hundred bucks into this and spent it all in like five minutes on political beta so it’s probably for the best that I do not put in any more. The only one I bought that’s not a complete certainty was some no on will trump be impeached by the end of the year.
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Dec 2, 2019 18:34
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Comrayn posted:I finally dumped a hundred bucks into this and spent it all in like five minutes on political beta so it’s probably for the best that I do not put in any more. The only one I bought that’s not a complete certainty was some no on will trump be impeached by the end of the year. rip ur money
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Dec 2, 2019 18:36
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drk posted:I'm talking about the individual states, many of which vote on Super Tues (3/3/20) - thats only 93 days away, and presumably the markets will settle not long after that in most cases. Better annualized return than the nomination or general election market, though shes not going to win those either. 90 days is pretty long in predictit market time. I like having powder dry for the debates, special elections, etc. That said, buying Hillary No in those markets is indeed free money.* You can also buy No on Yang in the same markets without increasing your exposure, which I encourage you to do. Yang Gang drives up his prices to a ludicrous degree. *Almost free money Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 18:57 on Dec 2, 2019 |
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Dec 2, 2019 18:54
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Yeah ,Yang No is almost as much free money as Hillary No and it's guaranteed. I can guarantee you that Andrew "MATH" Yang is not going to be the Democratic nominee for President
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Dec 2, 2019 20:23
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mayor Pete above warren rn, who are these people
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Dec 2, 2019 20:36
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Jenny Agutter posted:mayor Pete above warren rn, who are these people Not sure, but I'm glad I got in against Warren when she was trading in the 50's, and as long as Pete continues riding this wave, I was going to buy (more) against him after Iowa. More importantly, when the hell is the Louisiana Governor's MoV Market going to close? Tempted to buy more there at .97, actually. As long as it'll be cashed out before the Dec debate. Still hanging on to some No shares I picked up after Bernie's heart attack in the "who will drop out next" market for some liquidity in case it doesn't. Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 00:09 on Dec 3, 2019 |
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Dec 3, 2019 00:04
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Jenny Agutter posted:mayor Pete above warren rn, who are these people Maybe people are accounting for momentum to some degree. He's on the rise, she's falling. Or maybe expecting a big bump if he actually manages to win IA and NH (he's leading polls, but I'm skeptical personally). I'd say those factors maybe justify him at something like 12-14c (currently polling at 11.4 nationwide per RCP). I certainly wouldnt buy at 20
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Dec 3, 2019 00:15
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i'm up $2 on my 67 bernie shares bought at 14
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Dec 3, 2019 05:37
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Comrayn posted:I finally dumped a hundred bucks into this and spent it all in like five minutes on political beta so it’s probably for the best that I do not put in any more. The only one I bought that’s not a complete certainty was some no on will trump be impeached by the end of the year. It's not too late to sell and save your money
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Dec 3, 2019 06:51
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laffs are up, up, up (from https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614)
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Dec 3, 2019 07:13
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Hufflepuff or bust! posted:It's not too late to sell and save your money my twenty dollars is ride or die!!!
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Dec 3, 2019 15:16
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Comrayn posted:my twenty dollars is ride or die!!! For my $850, I hope you're wrong!
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Dec 3, 2019 18:52
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I'm maxed on impeach 2019 too
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Dec 3, 2019 18:59
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I am likely twenty dollars poorer but hey there could always be some extreme crazy fuckery pulled out of the republicans rear end to delay things.
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Dec 3, 2019 19:25
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Louisiana MoV just cashed. Game on. Another big win for the Joey Knish school of "predicting".
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Dec 4, 2019 03:02
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I had my first truly lucky break yesterday when I sold my “9 people on the debate stage” shares about two hours before Harris left the field.
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Dec 4, 2019 16:37
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By pure coincidence I pussed out on my no impeachment call and took the loss on half my shares like ten minutes before Pelosi went on tv.
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Dec 5, 2019 15:24
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up $500 on impeach
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Dec 5, 2019 18:17
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