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Even if we don't win this one the massive youth registrations are a foundation for the next one, the work doesn't go into a void, we've transformed the party and got more than one generation on our side.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:22
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Eh... you know what this whole post was nothing but offensive over generalize nonsense depression wanking... I’ll just delete it and apologize... Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Nov 24, 2019 |
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Nov 24, 2019 14:23
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I think you need to shut your gob tbqh.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:24
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OwlFancier posted:I think you need to shut your gob tbqh. This was nothing but stupid doomsaying depression wanking so I’m deleting this reply and I apologize Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Nov 24, 2019 |
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Nov 24, 2019 14:26
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Feel free to hatewank yourself into oblivion wherever you're located then and leave the rest of us in peace to do what we can without your brilliant insights then.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:28
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I'm lucky enough to be able to jump ship for a few years if the Tories get back in. But I'd probably still have to leave for a bit if Labour win. I'd love to see it through with a Labour government but it'll take years for my field to recover - jobs are disappearing from Brexit and EU funding uncertainty, and there are better paying/better condition jobs abroad. So I hope they do it right across the board.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:28
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Al-Saqr posted:if a complete godsend like corbyn and his policies can get defeated by boris johnson then gently caress it there's literally no point in thinking that there's anything worth salvaging in that stupid island Do you even live here?
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Nov 24, 2019 14:29
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feedmegin posted:Do you even live here? Thankfully, I live somewhere where I'll have the luxury of being among the first to die when the climate apocalypse happens and I'll probably get boiled alive.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:30
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So, did the channel four climate debate get officially cancelled? Literally the only one where climate change is the main agenda, and Johnson didn't show. They should have just no-chaired him.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:33
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Al-Saqr posted:If Jeremy doesnt win this election I think british people as a whole ought to written off and no amount of sympathy is deserved for the disasters and the loss of the NHS headed their way. There was literally no reason keeping them from voting for Corbyn other than they're stupid peasant folk who love Rupert Murdochs dick in their mouths. Just like arabs are incapable of living in anything like democracy and must forever be ruled by dictators, would you say?
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Nov 24, 2019 14:41
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RockyB posted:So, did the channel four climate debate get officially cancelled? Literally the only one where climate change is the main agenda, and Johnson didn't show. They should have just no-chaired him. I'm pretty sure that C4 will empty chair BoJo for the climate change debate but a date hasn't been set yet, all we know is it will be during the evening on a week day within the next fortnight.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:46
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Al-Saqr is from Saudi Arabia so him telling anyone that their country is a poo poo hole is pretty funny.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:46
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Rust Martialis posted:Just like arabs are incapable of living in anything like democracy and must forever be ruled by dictators, would you say? The reply I gave here was nothing but doomsaying and depression wanking whining, so I deleted my reply and I apologize. I’m just sad.... I hope corbyn wins and I’m proven wrong... Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Nov 24, 2019 |
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Nov 24, 2019 14:48
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Al-Saqr posted:If Jeremy doesnt win this election I think british people as a whole ought to written off and no amount of sympathy is deserved for the disasters and the loss of the NHS headed their way. There was literally no reason keeping them from voting for Corbyn other than they're stupid peasant folk who love Rupert Murdochs dick in their mouths. gently caress off mate
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Nov 24, 2019 14:52
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Nov 24, 2019 14:53
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Al-Saqr posted:No. I'm done with this nonsense of 'oh well we're headed in the right direction' like no. things will never get better or easier for any form of left to take power beyond this election if they lose, if a complete godsend like corbyn and his policies can get defeated by boris johnson then gently caress it there's literally no point in thinking that there's anything worth salvaging in that stupid island. We are at a pivotal point in history where it truly is either socialism or barbarism and the death of the planet is on the table, and if the left doesnt win elections now, there's nothing going to get better or easier in the future as the sea levels rise and eco-fascism takes hold of societies. If Labour lose - and I firmly believe that they will win - but if they do lose, then we will have another election quite soon, and we will win that one. The major argument for a new election will be stopping the Tories forcing No Deal Brexit onto us. They will be unable to do it actively, because they will not have a majority for it, even if they win a majority in the election. They have a route to do it passively, but we know about it. and there will be time for us to stop it. We will tear the Tory party apart in the near future, whatever happens. This zombie government will never be able to properly resurrect itself, even if it gets another opportunity. It would be bad if they got a stay of execution - bad for a lot and extremely bad for some. But they are not getting away with what they've done. I speak as a disabled person who is currently at the mercy of this Tory Government. I need Labour to win this election. And there are a great many people who need it as much as I do, as well as plenty who need it even more. I am completely confident that Labour will be the largest party after the election. I believe quite strongly that they will win a majority. I'm trying my hardest to look past my biases, and I believe that is my dispassionate conclusion from everything I've seen, not least from the posters ITT. In the meantime, please refrain from doomsaying until the votes have been counted. As I've said, a lot of people need labour to win this election. They have so much riding on it that it can be detrimental to their mental health if they start to believe someone's doomsaying. And we already get enough of it from the media. We need to win this, and we will win it, but we need to look after ourselves so that we can. You will be okay if you are correct. We will not. Please stop scaring my friends 
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Nov 24, 2019 14:54
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Stretch Marx posted:Al-Saqr is from Saudi Arabia so him telling anyone that their country is a poo poo hole is pretty funny. Is this necessary? They're as responsible for MbS as we are for BoJo.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:54
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Rarity posted:Is this necessary? They're as responsible for MbS as we are for BoJo. Al-Saqr likes to run around various D&D threads and gloat over other people's misery, so yeah it does feel quite necessary.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:55
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Braggart posted:In the meantime, please refrain from doomsaying until the votes have been counted. As I've said, a lot of people need labour to win this election. They have so much riding on it that it can be detrimental to their mental health if they start to believe someone's doomsaying. And we already get enough of it from the media. We need to win this, and we will win it, but we need to look after ourselves so that we can. You know what you’re right, I apologize,I’ll delete everything and go relax and log off.
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Nov 24, 2019 14:58
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Al-Saqr posted:You know what you’re right, I apologize,I’ll delete everything and go relax and log off. Thank you. You've shown integrity here. I hope you feel better. Take care of yourself 
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Nov 24, 2019 15:08
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Maugrim posted:I just had to talk my mum down as she was feeling depressed about the prospect of 5 more years of the Tories neglecting the environment, which has been her pet issue her entire life. Hell, a 19 point lead is depressing to me even though I know it's an insane result - part of me can't help feeling that, even if it's exaggerated, surely there's only so far you can go in massaging your figures? Are we really losing ground despite everything?  on their polling they have 5 age bands rather than the normal 6: 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ yeah they group the 18-24 and 25-34 into one band to further lean on the figures. here's their raw base of who they contacted: code:
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Nov 24, 2019 15:10
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Having read the Labour manifesto, I did end up with one question that the combined wisdom of the UKMT comrades may be able to help me with while I try to work out what I'm going to be voting for. There is a proposal in the manifesto to nationalise the supply arms of the "big six" electricity suppliers. This leads to a number of questions: Firstly, why only the big six? Surely, if electricity suppliers need to be taken into public ownership, then the smaller energy suppliers should also be taken into public ownership? Ultimately, they're looking to make a profit from the supply of electricity to consumers, just as the big six are. Secondly, what happens if, prior to this policy being enacted, some or more of the companies of the big six are taken over by non-big six suppliers? E.On have managed to accidentally acquire npower (and are apparently trying to get rid of it, given the scale of losses it's making), and Ovo are in the process of buying SSE. Does the policy then exclude Ovo, or does Ovo get nationalised along with the remaining firms? Finally, does this policy just look at domestic supply, or the I&C supply and things like contracts with smaller generators which fall under the same licences and legal entities as the residential customer businesses of the big six? I'm probably going to vote Labour regardless (for the first time in my life), although given I live in the Tory heartlands of Surrey, I doubt it'll make the slightest bit of difference.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:14
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I was leafing through my parents' copy of the Sunday Times while I waited for the kettle to boil, and it's hilarious how many ways they feel it is necessary to say "Corbyn bad" including, which caught my attention, a column from someone who is a 'fund manager and campaigner. Also, turns out Chris Martin's a Lib Dem voter... in case anyone cared. /\ /\ /\ Presumably Labour have got some sort of algorithm that, when data is entered, either presents an error message or NATIONALISED
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Nov 24, 2019 15:16
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Jose posted:I'd just vote labour. If it was closer to the lib dems fair enough because you might at least not get a far right mp for local issues but with that its not really a tactical vote
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Nov 24, 2019 15:16
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Braggart posted:If Labour lose - and I firmly believe that they will win - but if they do lose, then we will have another election quite soon, and we will win that one. For anyone reading this and going "yeah whatever", there is definitely precedence for this. In February 1974 Labour barely came out on top in a hung parliament with four seats more than the Tories. After negotiating the end to the miners' strike, they went back to the polls in October that year and won a 3-seat majority.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:17
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:well that'd be an opinium poll, and they didn't broadly publicise this part: Hey look, another poll was misleading us to make us afraid and depressed. Thank you Wiggly. Try to regard polling with scepticism, everyone. There's a pattern emerging here, and it doesn't like us. And please do not feel ashamed. Propaganda works, which is why they keep doing it. We have your back 
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Nov 24, 2019 15:18
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xtothez posted:For anyone reading this and going "yeah whatever", there is definitely precedence for this. In February 1974 Labour barely came out on top in a hung parliament with four seats more than the Tories. After negotiating the end to the miners' strike, they went back to the polls in October that year and won a 3-seat majority. If a general election doesn't fix the balance of Parliament for whoever theoretically wins it, then you get another general election  Will the Tories be able to fix their mess, under any circumstances? 
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Nov 24, 2019 15:22
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tory manifesto lmao: https://vote.conservatives.com/news/our-manifesto-gets-brexit-done-and-unleashes-the-potential-of-the-whole-country
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Nov 24, 2019 15:24
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it's fine to criticise the methodology of individual polls, but when you find yourself having to do it for every poll, that's a problem. al-saqr's gone off the deep end with doomsaying, but considering the distribution of polls looks like this and betfair has the probability of a tory majority at ~70%, 'what to do if the tories win in a landslide' does seem like a reasonable thing to discuss in the uk politics thread. coffeetable fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Nov 24, 2019 |
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Nov 24, 2019 15:27
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Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:well that'd be an opinium poll, and they didn't broadly publicise this part: Thanks pal! I can't say I understand how changing the cohorts affects the result so drastically but maybe one of these days I'll get the time to sit down and work it out for myself, in the meantime I trust you. And a 6 point gap looks considerably less depressing.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:27
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before someone starts talking about 2017's polling errors, compare and contrast:
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Nov 24, 2019 15:28
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I was feeling a bit pessimistic the other day too, but it's not over yet. The Tories barely had a majority last time and if the Lib Dem stick by their guns (lol) it'll be a hung parliament. Boris' whole tactic is to get a majority to push his Brexit deal through - if he doesn't have that there'll have to be another go. Corbyn would probably step down, and it would take time for the media to build up a coherent narrative about why the next leader would be poo poo. Besides that, there's also other action besides voting. The one thing this election seems to be doing more than others is getting organised - I don't see all that work disappearing by Christmas just because of an election. Sometimes you have to take what you want rather than it being given. Also - we're going to win anyway.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:32
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coffeetable posted:it's fine to criticise the methodology of individual polls, but when you find yourself having to do it for every poll, that's a problem. al-saqr's gone off the deep end with doomsaying, but considering the distribution of polls looks like this What that graph tells me is that "get Brexit done" is actually working out pretty well for the tories as they have completely cannibalised the bxp and ukip vote That also tells me they can't increase much further while Labour can continue to gain from the lib dems and remain leaning tories
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Nov 24, 2019 15:34
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coffeetable posted:it's fine to criticise the methodology of individual polls, but when you find yourself having to do it for every poll, that's a problem. al-saqr's gone off the deep end with doomsaying, but considering the distribution of polls looks like this There is no choice whether they win or lose, the same thing needs to be done. And you sitting on your cash and prattling about statistics does not contribute anything.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:35
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https://twitter.com/huwbbc/status/1198559095869050881 oh dear
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Nov 24, 2019 15:35
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coffeetable posted:it's fine to criticise the methodology of individual polls, but when you find yourself having to do it for every poll, that's a problem. al-saqr's gone off the deep end with doomsaying, but considering the distribution of polls looks like this wrt betfair "the sheep game but for money" is not a rigorous statistical analysis. Money follows money. you've seen the methodologies posted. They're worse than 2017's ones, and the relevant trends (like registration) do not support their assumptions. If you want to compare 2017 to 2019, fix both polls to the actual population and turnout weighting of 2017 first. There isn't a double digit lead. Landslide is not a valid concern. With BXP in the picture, landslide was the Labour goal.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:40
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Yeah people ITT are too dismissive of polling. Looking at the movement of polls is useful even if the weighting is off. And even if they are like 20, 30, 40% off that's still far too many tories. It's fun to see the kind of people who dismissed people as conspiracy nuts for saying the BBC was biased in the indyref now getting in on the action attacking the beeb over brexit.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:43
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What are you going to do if the polling is perfectly representative? Kill yourself? Whether it's right or wrong does not change the necessary course of action, it can only possibly serve to demoralize you or make you complacent. It is not useful information.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:45
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I dismiss the polls easily for one reason: they were proven last time to be wrong. They are owned by the guys who want us to lose, so I see no reason to pay attention to them.
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Nov 24, 2019 15:48
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he completely evades the answer unsurprisingly. its wild that the press carry so much water for him when he lies to them constantly https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1198613556385763328?s=20
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Nov 24, 2019 15:50
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