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https://twitter.com/icmresearch/status/1199302594054766594?s=21
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Nov 26, 2019 14:26
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They're smart, doing this antisemitism thing It really is remarkably demoralising, I'm not surprised they're hammering it constantly Bundy posted:Well, there goes the "olds that still give a poo poo what the Archbishop has to say" vote Olds will never help us anyway
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Nov 26, 2019 14:27
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Jables88 posted:Yes, this is exactly my point? Painting the burning of money as 'generous' because it's deflationary only makes sense in a world without debt, which I was hoping the 'economists' referenced in the article would understand. Currency removal is effectively an external wealth transfer from debtors to creditors, especially creditors with other bonds or savings and an ability to defer consumption. Guy doesn't know what he's talking about, or is trying to justify his edgy art project with something that's the opposite of what he thinks it is.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:28
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Camrath posted:I’m more referring to the broad scale assault of the media classes here than the specific example of antisemitism. However when such things are provably in bad faith then I beg to differ- in the same way that if I (As your local media baron for this example) were to take out blanket coverage falsely accusing someone of any crime. Yes, we have libel laws but those seem somehow insufficient in circumstances like this. Just give the IPSO some teeth, or replace it with a body who will actually do something. Focusing on publications who are anti-Labour is obviously really dodgy ground, but putting real punishments in place for outlets that tell harmful, deliberate lies (about anyone) would be a start.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:31
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checking the voter registration stats page, today the number of live users is consistently two to three times what it was at the same time yesterday, when 300,000 people registered. So that's positive...
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Nov 26, 2019 14:31
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The Tories should be getting concerned about these polls despite the headline lead not changing much. They've had to pretty much entirely cannibalise the Brexit party vote share just to stand still, whilst Labour still have a decent chunk of Lib-Dem and Green to eat into. Very early days but I'm reading more upside for Labour ATM compared to a week or two ago.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:33
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https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/police-investigate-ruth-smeeth-threats-3576339quote:Police investigate death threats against General Election candidate Ruth Smeeth
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Nov 26, 2019 14:34
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I'm hoping that the private polling the Tories are conducting is painting a far less rosy picture for them than the public ones. Hence the Chief Rabbi thing.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:35
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Necrothatcher posted:I'm hoping that the private polling the Tories are conducting is painting a far less rosy picture for them than the public ones. Hence the Chief Rabbi thing. Eh, the Chief Rabbi probably was going to say that some point this election anyways - he probably honestly believes the rubbish coming out of his mouth, thats the benefit of media hysteria. I doubt this was organized by Tory HQ, although they might have got a heads-up.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:37
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:
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Nov 26, 2019 14:38
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Leggsy posted:The Tories should be getting concerned about these polls despite the headline lead not changing much. They've had to pretty much entirely cannibalise the Brexit party vote share just to stand still, whilst Labour still have a decent chunk of Lib-Dem and Green to eat into. Very early days but I'm reading more upside for Labour ATM compared to a week or two ago. The Lib dem vote is stubbornly resistant though, there's not that many points left to take off them because their appeal is to Remain Tories and it's harder to deter those into not voting and impossible to get them to flip to Labour. I suspect this isn't going to shift significantly until the exit poll where the regional impact comes into play - there's still plenty of seats with all the parties standing and who gets in matters hugely.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:38
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Eh, the Chief Rabbi probably was going to say that some point this election anyways - he probably honestly believes the rubbish coming out of his mouth, thats the benefit of media hysteria. I doubt this was organized by Tory HQ, although they might have got a heads-up. True, but it does seem to be timed for maximum political effect, coming hours before Labour announces their race and faith manifesto.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:39
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Eh, the Chief Rabbi probably was going to say that some point this election anyways - he probably honestly believes the rubbish coming out of his mouth, thats the benefit of media hysteria. I doubt this was organized by Tory HQ, although they might have got a heads-up. I suspect Tory HQ would have a say in the timing if they wanted it, to help maximise the impact. They could well have arranged for today to depress the voter registration efforts.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:40
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oh so burning money is art but when i suggest burning billionaire mansions it’s a high crime?
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Nov 26, 2019 14:40
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Tenebrais posted:I suspect Tory HQ would have a say in the timing if they wanted it, to help maximise the impact. They could well have arranged for today to depress the voter registration efforts.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:45
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Eh, the Chief Rabbi probably was going to say that some point this election anyways - he probably honestly believes the rubbish coming out of his mouth, thats the benefit of media hysteria. I doubt this was organized by Tory HQ, although they might have got a heads-up. You have to admit that making his big denouncement on the very day that Labour present their Race and Faith manifesto (which promises to make attacks on places of worship aggravated crimes) smacks of some sort of co-ordination and collusion. E: We've had the MI5 denouncements and the religious denouncements now. What's left for the shocking day-before-election news drop. It ain't gonna be Russia. RockyB fucked around with this message at 14:48 on Nov 26, 2019 |
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Nov 26, 2019 14:45
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Sanford posted:I exerted unfair pressure on some young people I know in order to further my own political objectives:  That's your Twitter name? You and Owlfancier should hook up! 
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Nov 26, 2019 14:49
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mediadave posted:checking the voter registration stats page, today the number of live users is consistently two to three times what it was at the same time yesterday, when 300,000 people registered. So that's positive... I wonder if we'll top a million
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Nov 26, 2019 14:50
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Braggart posted:
Haha that's not me, it's my friend's band. I'm not allowed on social media because I have... views. You know what I'll give them a reciprocal signal boost. Those of you who like this awful nonsense that is apparently meant to be music, Raised by Owls have a Christmas single out and all the proceeds are going to charity. https://twitter.com/RaisedByOwlsUK/status/1197603786459688960 Sanford fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Nov 26, 2019 |
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Nov 26, 2019 14:51
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Braggart posted:
No one tell them about the owls in my computer 
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Nov 26, 2019 14:53
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https://twitter.com/joelgolby/status/1199321620059492357 I love Joel Golby
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Nov 26, 2019 14:53
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https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1199319190043279360?s=20 https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1199320759920943105?s=20
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Nov 26, 2019 14:54
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How can something called 'Institute of Economic Affairs' be a charity 
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Nov 26, 2019 14:57
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I think it depends on whether you are there as a representative of the charity or just an economist or something - Grace Blakeley has to be careful about telling people to support Labour if she's doing stuff on behalf of the IPPR at the time.
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Nov 26, 2019 14:58
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https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199321058488266763?s=19 The poll grind is real and exhausting, but it's interesting to see what happens when the voodoo of turnout weightings are removed... Usual caveats apply (national poll, landline, etc.)
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Nov 26, 2019 14:59
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Camrath posted:I’m more referring to the broad scale assault of the media classes here than the specific example of antisemitism. However when such things are provably in bad faith then I beg to differ- in the same way that if I (As your local media baron for this example) were to take out blanket coverage falsely accusing someone of any crime. Yes, we have libel laws but those seem somehow insufficient in circumstances like this. Leveson 2 is coming my friend. A Labour government is an existential crisis for some elements of the media. This is one of the reasons they are fighting against the idea so hard   Incidentally, does your name stand for the Campaign for Real Ale (True Hops)? Those loving splitters... 
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Nov 26, 2019 15:03
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sinky posted:How can something called 'Institute of Economic Affairs' be a charity Because as a charity it enjoys a great many tax breaks. Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you said "Why was something called Institute of Economic Affairs' be a charity."
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Nov 26, 2019 15:03
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Braggart posted:Leveson 2 is coming my friend. A Labour government is an existential crisis for some elements of the media. This is one of the reasons they are fighting against the idea so hard Lol, sadly not. It's a pseudonym/online persona/now defunct fursona(insert shudder here)I've used since the 90s. I am however going to tell people it's what you just said from now on, because that's some funny poo poo.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:05
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sebzilla posted:https://twitter.com/joelgolby/status/1199321620059492357 I like that this article makes absolutely no bones about the fact that "register to vote" explicitly means "register to vote and then vote for Labour"
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Nov 26, 2019 15:09
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https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1197223092486959104
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Nov 26, 2019 15:13
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Turnout weighting is when you boost Tory percent to account for “the shy Tory” problem when people won’t admit to pollsters that they are planning to vote Tory in the GE They all do it so there is a minimum 2-5% boost of any Tory %
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Nov 26, 2019 15:13
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Guavanaut posted:Yeah, in proportion to how much of it they already hold you giant dingus. Also by far, far less than just giving it away  This is homeopathic economics from the "technically there's a grain of truth in what I'm saying  " crowd.The Pissflaps school of economics.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:14
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Huh, a couple of colleagues have asked me if I'd heard the "Gove racism" on Twitter, I'm going to piss my pants if Gove manages to overshadow the attempt to overshadow Labour's anti-racism manifesto by being a stupid white racist attempting to mock Stormzy
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Nov 26, 2019 15:17
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Jel Shaker posted:Turnout weighting is when you boost Tory percent to account for “the shy Tory” problem when people won’t admit to pollsters that they are planning to vote Tory in the GE The different age brackets do turn out differently as well as vote differently, it's not just people lying to pollsters.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:19
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Jel Shaker posted:Turnout weighting is when you boost Tory percent to account for “the shy Tory” problem when people won’t admit to pollsters that they are planning to vote Tory in the GE alternatively,  
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Nov 26, 2019 15:23
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This Is Bad For Jeremy Corbyn https://twitter.com/andrewfeinstein/status/1199282458098831360
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Nov 26, 2019 15:23
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Azza Bamboo posted:Compare this with jam man who wanted to talk to the man screaming at him about the scarf before being dragged away by his press team. wait what is this?
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Nov 26, 2019 15:23
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Breaking my lurkstreak to beg for reassurance that the UCU strike is going better for others of you in it. Where I am I just feel outnumbered not just by people not striking but people who voted for the strike but are now not taking part. I get that it's a long one with big immediate individual financial implications, and many feel ill equipped to weather it. I just worry that it's doomed to failure already. Gimme some of that GE optimism.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:26
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Necrothatcher posted:A couple of days I ago I posted about that theatre show in Marylebone where attendees are planning to burn money to prove that it's a "neutral utilitarian systemic infrastructure" or something (https://www.thecockpit.org.uk/show/church_of_burn). I'm going to be outside on the night with a charity bucket raising money for a homeless shelter (one that doesn't report to the Home Office). I've been sent this response from the producer of it. Can someone more versed in academic bollocks untangle it for me: quote:I should tell you, that even though I earn below the national average wage, I’ve wasted exponentially more money than I’ve ever burned, on all sorts of unnecessary things. I expect you do, too. Oh I see so two wrongs make a right?  Do it. Shame these cunts!
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Nov 26, 2019 15:27
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Vlex posted:https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1199321058488266763?s=19 The interesting thing is turnout weighting can actually benefit us. I took the ICM data (the one showing Tory 41% and labour 34%) and reweighted the data with the turnouts by age from the 2017 election - so instead of guessing turnout, I assume it'll be same as 2017. Doing that, the Tories were still on 41%, and labour was only on 32%. Might be showing success of mobilization efforts, but the turnout stats aren't skewed far from reality in the IPM poll. With no turnout weighting but discarding won't vote/don't know you end up with 35% labour and 40% Tory - so we've got soft voters dangling that we need to shore up. Also, men are more likely to say they'll vote Tory/Lib Dem than women, women are more likely to say Don't Know instead. proportions for Labour by gender are roughly equal, though.
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Nov 26, 2019 15:29
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