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jabby posted:https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1200816033755475968 https://twitter.com/inthesedeserts/status/1200828968968081408
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Nov 30, 2019 18:30
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jabby posted:https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1200816033755475968 Now here is the question. Is this a shift in thier methodology, or, is it a shift in the voting with the same methodology as before? The former is them trying to save face. The latter means they are still underestimating the labour vote....
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Nov 30, 2019 18:32
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gh0stpinballa posted:bit of a tangent but i like it when i find a take that is completely correct and perfectly reasonable but you know a lot of tiresome people will try to find a problem with it anyway It's something that we all should talk about more without talking about any specific person's sex life, but I'm not sure how we get from A to B without going through that, especially when even the most vanilla education gets so much pushback.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:32
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Oh poo poo now I'm public enemy number 2 for the squirrel army!  Jo! Help me! If we work together we're more likely to both surv- NEVER! YOU JUST WANT MY PRIME MINISTERSHIP! YOU'RE IN LEAGUE WITH THE SQUIRRELS! I HAVE TO KILL YOU TO SAVE MYSELF!
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Nov 30, 2019 18:33
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Outs(((dan)))ding as always.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:34
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Guavanaut posted:General public is still far too closeted about talking about sex, which leads to a lot of people thinking they're wrong because they like or don't like certain sex, and also hands a useful pass to child abusers who can pull the "this is normal, but don't tell anybody" card. i think "don't talk about how you wield your dick in the bedroom unless specifically asked" is an extremely reasonable position and does not empower child abusers, what the gently caress. if someone hasn't consented to discussing sexual activities then you have no right to make them.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:38
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There's a difference between discussing sex as a general topic or personal sexual health; and going into details about one's sex life unnecessarily, or otherwise making others unwilling partners to it. If you denounce the former you're the problem. If you do the latter you are also the problem.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:40
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Guavanaut posted:General public is still far too closeted about talking about sex, which leads to a lot of people thinking they're wrong because they like or don't like certain sex, and also hands a useful pass to child abusers who can pull the "this is normal, but don't tell anybody" card. mate there is a difference between not being comfortable chatting about sex with the weird person who keeps pushing it as a topic, and a child abuser. you cannot compare the two.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:41
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As crazy as it sounds I think at least some of the shift in polls is people realizing that voting for Lib Dems is a wasted vote in most seats and that since Labour has committed to a referendum, voting Labour is the best bet at undoing Brexit. It's basically the same reason the Brexit Party's vote evaporated but on the other side of the coin and it took a little longer because Lib Dems have a lot more institutional inertia to stick around with compared to BXP.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:41
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The Lib Dems would be polling 40% if Chuka Umunna were leader. Swinson must go! #libdemfightback #anyonebutswinson #radicalcentre
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Nov 30, 2019 18:44
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Hell of a day in the commentariat https://mobile.twitter.com/samisam147/status/1200831589787357186
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Nov 30, 2019 18:48
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Another Person posted:mate there is a difference between not being comfortable chatting about sex with the weird person who keeps pushing it as a topic, and a child abuser. The bind is how you get to a society where people are comfortable discussing the general without imposing the specific.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:51
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Sulphagnist posted:As crazy as it sounds I think at least some of the shift in polls is people realizing that voting for Lib Dems is a wasted vote in most seats and that since Labour has committed to a referendum, voting Labour is the best bet at undoing Brexit. It's basically the same reason the Brexit Party's vote evaporated but on the other side of the coin and it took a little longer because Lib Dems have a lot more institutional inertia to stick around with compared to BXP. It doesn't sound crazy at all. I've seen a number of FBPE types saying they're switching from Lib Dem to Labour in the last little while.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:52
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big scary monsters posted:The Lib Dems would be polling 40% if Chuka Umunna were leader. Swinson must go! CHUKA'S IN LEAGUE WITH THE SQUIRRELS! HE HAS THEM REACH INTO THE BALLOT BOXES WITH THEIR VILE LITTLE HANDS AND FIX THE VOTE! IT ALL MAKES SENSE NOW!!!Thunder crashes
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Nov 30, 2019 18:53
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jabby posted:https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1200816033755475968   etcI'm prepared to go out of a limb and say it's obviously the squirrel army and Lib Dem collapse that's doing this, rather than the companies changing their polling methodology. Swinson has been dire on TV, and the revoke article 50 thing is not playing well with most people. https://twitter.com/waluigitifo/status/1200824538797346816 Jaeluni Asjil posted:Not immediately. I think you have to wait 6 months. I know I missed being eligible to vote for Corbyn in the 2016 leadership by one freaking day. A fair point, but obviously the hope here is that we get a majority and vote in a proper lefty as deputy leader so Corbyn can gracefully retire to his allotment and not literally work himself to death in in fighting the good fight.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:56
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Apraxin posted:Hell of a day in the commentariat Why yes, I'll do an interview. But only with the weather girl! 
Braggart fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Nov 30, 2019 |
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Nov 30, 2019 18:57
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Anyone on here into the minutiae of Labour's tax plans and understands dividends? Someone claiming pensioners will be worse off under labour (and apparently admitted by John McD today). From what I can see that is only pensioners who have dividend income that would push them into the £80k+ income realms but I may be entirely wrong.
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Nov 30, 2019 18:58
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‘Not only are we utterly blameless for yesterday’s terrorism, it’s actually Labour’s fault’ is a bold argument, but if anyone’s shameless enough to run with it, it’s her: https://mobile.twitter.com/patel4witham/status/1200815822853328898
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Nov 30, 2019 19:07
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Sulphagnist posted:As crazy as it sounds I think at least some of the shift in polls is people realizing that voting for Lib Dems is a wasted vote in most seats and that since Labour has committed to a referendum, voting Labour is the best bet at undoing Brexit. It's basically the same reason the Brexit Party's vote evaporated but on the other side of the coin and it took a little longer because Lib Dems have a lot more institutional inertia to stick around with compared to BXP. Yeah, Labour's position is now more remainy than the libdems. If Labour wins we get a referendum between remain and soft brexit (and the turbo gammons won't be enthused) If libdems are kingmakers they'll have to ally either with Labour (see above) or the tories which would most likely result a referendum between remain and hard brexit (with the gammons salivating), and the constant risk of no-deal shenanigans
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Nov 30, 2019 19:09
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I refuse to be silenced. I'm horny as hell and I'm not going to take it any more 
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Nov 30, 2019 19:10
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Apraxin posted:Hell of a day in the commentariat Comment or Commentariat: hardcore mode
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Nov 30, 2019 19:11
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Shogi posted:Any canvassers got any gen on how you handle bigoted rants on the doorstep? I generally just ignore the spiders crawling out and try to redirect them to the real causes of homelessness or whatever issue it is they're worried about. My hope is that even if they can't 'show weakness' there and then, they might think about it later. Or even just think 'that lad from Labour listened to me for a bit without pulling the bad face'. I want people to know we care about them and the poo poo they're dealing with. Even if they have bought bad explanations for why things are so rough. Bluntly unless this is happening a lot: gently caress 'em. There's a whole list of doors to knock on and have easier conversations converting liberals and undecided to vote Labour rather than throw yourself into maybe convincing some arsehole that the powerless and vulnerable aren't actually the cause of all the problems in the world. If they'd rather rant about Polish people than talk about how improving the health service or investing in local industry is good even if Polish people get to use it then you're wasting your time. Working class anti-racism comes from joint struggle but there's some people who just won't ever take that step and the best thing to happen is they get outnumbered on the streets, the polling station and the government. Jaeluni Asjil posted:Anyone on here into the minutiae of Labour's tax plans and understands dividends? Apparently there's some fake news going around saying Labour plans to get rid of the single person occupancy discount on council tax and that's gotten out to some pensioners.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:12
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The wrong Micheal Howard just died, but expect the media to run hours of his obituary anyway instead of talking about the election
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Nov 30, 2019 19:15
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Guavanaut posted:You can compare societies that are uncomfortable with discussing sex in general (rather than specific) with ones that empower abuse though, which is why sex ed is so important, but also why people who conflate discussing sex in general with discussing it in specific don't think it should be discussed at all. the tweet was saying that if a person doesn't want to discuss sex or your/their sex life, then disrespecting that boundary and making them do so or making them think about it is extremely creepy and a violation of consent. compketely reasonable and defensible position, intensely problematic to suggest them not wanting to think about how/who/where you gently caress means they are "repressed" or "frigid". skirts up to weirdo territory there.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:17
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gently caress yeah at the change in the polls. Hope the numbers keep shifting, and also that's its not a change in how the polling is being done but rather an actual change in opinions.gh0stpinballa posted:the tweet was saying that if a person doesn't want to discuss sex or your/their sex life, then disrespecting that boundary and making them do so or making them think about it is extremely creepy and a violation of consent. compketely reasonable and defensible position, intensely problematic to suggest them not wanting to think about how/who/where you gently caress means they are "repressed" or "frigid". skirts up to weirdo territory there. imo, the tweet seemed to be about overhearing other people talking about sex at all, rather than having people talk about it with you directly? Guavanat seems to have read it the same way I first did.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:27
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:Anyone on here into the minutiae of Labour's tax plans and understands dividends? You'd have to ask exactly what they're talking about, they're probably talking about how increasing corporation tax means companies pay out smaller dividends to shareholders, and they include people with a defined contribution pension. That's purely in isolation though, the dividends paid out depend on the company, its profitability depends on the economy... this is one of those things where ordinary people get the crumbs, so when you start talking about taxing wealth they can go "they're trying to take away your crumbs"
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Nov 30, 2019 19:28
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Yeah if that's the same methodology then that is some tasty, tasty treat
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Nov 30, 2019 19:30
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GlyphGryph posted:imo, the tweet seemed to be about overhearing other people talking about sex at all, rather than having people talk about it with you directly? Guavanat seems to have read it the same way I first did. You and guavanaut have read it horrifically wrong
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Nov 30, 2019 19:32
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Failed Imagineer posted:Lol at that kpop toothpaste gif every single time what are they even doing with that toothpaste. do i want to know. what do they have planned for us
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Nov 30, 2019 19:34
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Rarity posted:I refuse to be silenced. I'm horny as hell and I'm not going to take it any more Are you going to start giving it instead? 
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Nov 30, 2019 19:35
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forkboy84 posted:if we can't become the largest party after 9 years of brutal Tory government then there's going to need to be some serious thinking about the future. Noooooo! I mean yes ok serious thinking always good I suppose, but please let us not think serious thoughts like 'oh god we have failed and must Do Something'. There was a Tory government from 1979 to 1997. There was a Tory government from 1951 to 1964. The system is rigged in their favour, it's hard to get them out, and it basically never happens just because they are brutal. If we lose we need to hold our nerve, so that we're worth electing when we finally win.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:36
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Shogi posted:At the same time, it kills my soul a little bit to let someone scream racist shite into the streets without an aggressive rejoinder. 
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Nov 30, 2019 19:37
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Shogi posted:Any canvassers got any gen on how you handle bigoted rants on the doorstep? I generally just ignore the spiders crawling out and try to redirect them to the real causes of homelessness or whatever issue it is they're worried about. My hope is that even if they can't 'show weakness' there and then, they might think about it later. Or even just think 'that lad from Labour listened to me for a bit without pulling the bad face'. I want people to know we care about them and the poo poo they're dealing with. Even if they have bought bad explanations for why things are so rough. When I saw it done, it was more or less how you said. Asking them leading questions to find out the thing that's causing their anger at "outsiders" or whatever, and then introducing concepts that lead to a different conclusion. A better minimum wage would mean employers can't exploit a migrant workforce to undercut the locals, for example. People are angry because they're hurting- that hurt is real whether or not they've identified the real culprit.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:44
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Apraxin posted:‘Not only are we utterly blameless for yesterday’s terrorism, it’s actually Labour’s fault’ is a bold argument, but if anyone’s shameless enough to run with it, it’s her: Would 'toughening up' sentences with no deradicalization have achieved anything other than this happening in 2025 instead of 2019? Is he going to do anything about the woeful state of our prisons and probation service? no gh0stpinballa posted:the tweet was saying that if a person doesn't want to discuss sex or your/their sex life, then disrespecting that boundary and making them do so or making them think about it is extremely creepy and a violation of consent. compketely reasonable and defensible position, intensely problematic to suggest them not wanting to think about how/who/where you gently caress means they are "repressed" or "frigid". skirts up to weirdo territory there. And is it a violation of consent to any other degree than any other chat that might make people uncomfortable, like gunchat or carchat or pregnancychat? If the answer is yes, maybe we should be asking what that says about us as a society and our values rather than whether any individual is "repressed", but I'd suspect it's a huge part situational too. I'm not about to chat about guns in the same way at a playgroup as I would at a rural pub with stuffed ducks on the wall. Also I have a suspicion that a lot (by no means all, but they ride on the coattails) of the objections aren't to a horde of hypothetical sexhavers going around pressing the intimate particulars of their sex lives on strangers and demanding reciprocity, but are on a social level shoring up heteronormativity, otherwise we'd have been having the same conversations about a lot of our society's performative heterosexuality being "shoved down our throats" for a long time. The vast majority of public sexchat I've heard has been straight lads boasting and probably making poo poo up, and that predates sex-positivity (and feminism) by a few centuries, but I have a feeling that the tweets weren't pointed at them.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:46
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I didn't consent to sex chat chat
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Nov 30, 2019 19:49
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 Vince Cable calls Lib Dems' pledge to revoke article 50 'a distraction' posted:Former leader says party should support second Brexit referendum instead Ever think the the bicentennial man regrets stepping down from the leadership? Although, let's face it, he's as culpable, and complicit as Swinson or Davey - but it makes me wonder how they'd campaign differently? Probably wouldn't be trying to rally-round-the-personality thing they're currently doing. Then again, it's hard to rally behind a charimsa void so bland, his loving hat had more of a personality.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:50
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Shogi posted:Any canvassers got any gen on how you handle bigoted rants on the doorstep? I generally just ignore the spiders crawling out and try to redirect them to the real causes of homelessness or whatever issue it is they're worried about. My hope is that even if they can't 'show weakness' there and then, they might think about it later. Or even just think 'that lad from Labour listened to me for a bit without pulling the bad face'. I want people to know we care about them and the poo poo they're dealing with. Even if they have bought bad explanations for why things are so rough. Personally I think there's a bit of a difference between someone giving out a racist rant in the street, and someone launching into a racist rant when you actively ask for their political views. Aggressively coming back at someone ranting in the street is good, because it will stop them doing it again and teach them to keep their opinions to themselves. But it's unlikely to change their mind about anything. If your intention is to change someones vote you probably do have to go in a bit more gentle and persuasive, even if you'd like to shout back at them.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:50
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see, this is why twitter is terrible for discourse. by the time you've removed enough details to fit the exact scenario you're annoyed about in a tweet, it's vague enough that people who aren't following your exact point in the current discourse can assume you're talking about something else slightly different, and then make wildly vague subtweets of their own, and then everybody's mad and everyone's blocking each other and people are posting 2 minute kpop videos for some reason instead you should use the perfect medium for reasonable conversations where nobody is ever angry, Forums Dot Something Awful Dot Com
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Nov 30, 2019 19:50
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namesake posted:Apparently there's some fake news going around saying Labour plans to get rid of the single person occupancy discount on council tax and that's gotten out to some pensioners. No, it's not that. That was in the Express and is a porky. It's something else from today. I think it's to do with tax on dividends not size of dividends.
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Nov 30, 2019 19:56
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:Anyone on here into the minutiae of Labour's tax plans and understands dividends? Oh god this turned into an effort post. This all changed pretty recently actually, May tinkering around the edges. What Labour are proposing is equalising the tax paid on dividends and capital gains with the tax paid on income. A necessary change IMO. The important thing is it will affect people reliant on dividend income or selling shares to fund their private pension, but not those with an annuity. I'm going to repeat this again because it's important, this brings taxation for annuities and draw-down pensions in line. Assuming they actually own shares which provide dividends, a lot of the largest companies don't pay them. See: Facebook, Alphabet (google). https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/labours-proposals-pensions-and-personal-tax https://www.gov.uk/tax-on-dividends For what it's worth, the additional £400 Andrew Neil was proposing on a £14,000 income is wrong. £1,500 taxable at an additional rate of 12.5% = £187.50. FTSE 250 average total return dividend yield is sitting about 3% however, meaning that to get that £14k in dividend income you'd need to own dividend providing stocks of roughly £466,666.66 (hail satan). Suffice to say if you have this, outside of an annuity, you're doing a drat sight better than the vast majority of pensioners. It's also more than an average worker would need to live on until they hit 100: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-7154777/Britons-need-pension-pot-447K-hit-65-pension-age-100.html E: Fudging the truth a little here. Remember that you'd need to add your state pension to your income, which would be £8,760. So this will start affecting people with more than £3,730 in dividend income, i.e a draw-down pension pot of £125k. You can see dividends as an addendum to your 'earned' income, taxed at a different rate. Currently you pay 0% on the first £2,000, 7.5% up to your higher tax band, then 32.5% beyond that. These are some more generic examples than for pensions only, but let's say you're pulling down an income of: 0k from work or state pension, 10k from dividends - potentially 8k taxable in dividends. Paid at 7.5% = £600 tax. HOWEVER this is less than your tax free allowance of £12,500, so you actually pay nothing 12.5k from part time work + pension, 10k from dividends, £22.5k total - Tax free allowance is currently £12,500, so you pay no income tax. 2k tax free dividends is subsumed by your £12,500 tax free allowance, meaning you have 10k taxable in dividends. Total of both is below higher tax tax bracket so 7.5%, = £750 tax. Under labour, this would be £2,000 50k in dividends - Holy poo poo what kind of private pension do you have. £12.5k tax free, means you're paying 7.5% tax on £37,500 dividend income = £2,812.50 in tax. This is actually impossible you can have a maximum pension pot of only £1.25 million, so at least some of these dividends are coming from outside your pension wrapper. 40k from work + annuity/state pension, 10k from dividends. You're scraping the 40% income tax bracket, but not breaching it. Paying 20% tax on £27,500 of income plus 7.5% on dividends = £8,312.50. Any additional dividend income you earn beyond this point will be taxed at 32.5%. The 'losers' here are people who opted to do draw-down rather than an annuity and receive over £12,500 combined per year. Labour is proposing bumping the rates from 7.5/32.5% -> 20/40%. But note again this only brings the taxation in line with an annuity, which is already taxed as income And the inevitable quoting myself for those rich bastards who work as contractors (i.e. me) quote:All sounds sensible, and with the dividend tax changes and corporation tax going up to 26% it might finally get rid of the incentive for limited company contractors to pay out in dividends (not deducted from corporation tax, doesn't count for NI) rather than salary (which is counted against corporation tax and attracts NI) . EE: Tweaked figures a bit, recopy if you've already done so. OH GOD THE MATH. RockyB fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Nov 30, 2019 |
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Nov 30, 2019 19:57
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