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Darth Walrus posted:The current election map looks a lot like the post-Brexit constituency map. You go hardline Remain, you're jettisoning a huge majority of seats. They just jettisoned a huge amount of seats though. Trying to please both sides was not a winning strategy either, it just made it impossible to have a clear message on the whole thing. Being "Brexit but maybe nicer"gets you still bodied by the "we deliver Brexit" Tories. And going Remain would split the vote with the LibDems still. Trying to make it a social issue was probably the best strategy, it just didn't replace Brexit as main topic at all it seems. People are rather starving and without any health system, as long as their have their Brexit (or Remain - seems to be forgotten, that that is nearly as big as a group as the Brexit people).
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Dec 13, 2019 07:39
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You need a Bob Dylan to lead You just need to be someone who when they speak people believe what they're saying. It doesn't matter if its in a nasally wail so long as when they speak it is from conviction. To shift a status quo a leader has to inspire. As much as the left wants to hate him look at how Obama weaponised inspiration through charisma and oratory conviction. And since leaving he is still held as a leader that inspires via Self belief.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:39
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Tijuana Bibliophile posted:jesus your country's stupid Everyone's country is stupid. Have you seen the world? As for the echo chamber, that's why I was not as confident as most. Everyone has there bubble. That said, it's still a third of the country, less than half the country voted for the Tories. It's our bs political system, the fact we are not a two party state, so votes get split, it's a million factors.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:40
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Lid posted:The question is how will you win them - you cannot simultaneously hold progressive social positions of the cosmopolitan educated middle class while simultaneously courting the isolationist xenophobic uneducated rural working class. What is your party going to aim for and believe when its stuck in trying to appease two hroups that are so diametrically opposed? The party of immigrants relying on voters who see them as invaders. The party of science and technology relying on voters that believe that Ludd Was Right. You split into two parties that are working closely together and don’t stand against each other. Like Tories and the BXP did. You mend the Lib-Lab schism at the leadership level, and make a big deal of it at the membership level, probably.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:40
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I'm a little surprised Bridgend went tory. I know Labour have never had an iron grip on it but it always seemed like it would return Labour. Guess it goes without saying this election has been a bit of a disaster for them.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:41
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Omobono posted:Italian here. Condolences, but be assured that we'll be following you into an Italciao of our own pretty soon. I thought all the other EU leavers went quiet when they saw what a poo poo show it is here
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Dec 13, 2019 07:43
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Wait how is the story being reported here not “Liberals throw election to spite Corbyn”?
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Dec 13, 2019 07:43
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sinky posted:I thought all the other EU leavers went quiet when they saw what a poo poo show it is here When we leave the League of Nations we will fo it right! Not like those dumb Brits!
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Dec 13, 2019 07:44
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Stay safe people. Get organised. Get angry. And look after each other.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:44
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icantfindaname posted:Wait how is the story being reported here not “Liberals throw election to spite Corbyn”? Probably because of the overwhelming support for the Brexit party in previous Labor strongholds rather than an urban Liberal sabotage?
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Dec 13, 2019 07:45
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icantfindaname posted:Wait how is the story being reported here not “Liberals throw election to spite Corbyn”? huge surge in CON vote share, including in CON/LAB marginals,.even with surges in overall turnout the initial three odd weeks where LAB mainly turned its guns on LDEM now looks a little silly
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Dec 13, 2019 07:45
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Beefeater1980 posted:
How do you mend that? All the Lib leadership is so anti-anything that isn't Tory light that it'll take a generation
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Dec 13, 2019 07:46
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Manic_Misanthrope posted:How do you mend that? All the Lib leadership is so anti-anything that isn't Tory light that it'll take a generation Well Jo Swinson isn’t technically “leadership” any more...
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Dec 13, 2019 07:47
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So sorry, UKMT. You're all good ones and you didn't deserve this disappointment. What's bothering me now is that things are now progressing along the lines predicted by Mark Blyth, interestingly: The Tories have strapped a bomb to their chest named "brexit", and Jeremy wants nothing more than to let them count that down and destroy the party of Margaret Thatcher forever. He doesn't want to be PM. He wants to use Brexit to split the tory party. I guess the takehome is that the tories now get to own brexit completely and that labour left will get a chance to usher in an age of permanent socialist darkness once people need the ashes sorted.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:47
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Nice piece of fish posted:So sorry, UKMT. You're all good ones and you didn't deserve this disappointment. I see we’re now at the 4D chess stage of the grieving process
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Dec 13, 2019 07:49
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Looking forward to the United Kingdom of England and Wales.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:49
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I would like people who campaigned to stop apologising because you did literally all you could. In the meantime, if you can do a posh accent, wear chinos, be white and slick your hair it’s your responsibility now to stand up for the dispossessed daily, because they have next to no representation and our vulnerable. That isn’t white saviour syndrome - you’re just best placed to do it and the pony fuckers will allow only you in. Other than that I was worried that the youth quake - if there was one - was fixed to areas that were already strong mentally mind-prison labour and it seems to be the case. I guess that’s what happens when you make only 3 or so cities vaguely exciting for young people and leave the rest to rot. Things we’ll need to accept: 1) Corbyn bad electorally 2) people are racist 3) tactical voting no longer works 4) the tories can lie and cheat and steal and kill but their allies are too powerful. What labour needs now is some slick polished chrome sleeper cell agent. Someone with the golden -100% baggage who can be anything to anyone but runs on pure silent socialism. Like some kind of Manchurian candidate or something. I and we will need to own up to being a ‘corbynite’ which means taking the hit for thinking people were better than they are. It’s going to be a difficult time for us, but remember there are people who will literally die as a direct result of a Tory majority. Think cautiously, act cunningly, and use the tories tactics agains them even if it makes you look like one. and do whatever you can for them and on that basis.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:50
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I blame pigfucker for all this.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:50
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Nice piece of fish posted:So sorry, UKMT. You're all good ones and you didn't deserve this disappointment. This is by far the biggest silver lining to this category 100 Hurricane cloud hovering over the British Isles right now. You can't really blame Labour for what happens next. The Tories will own it all and more gammony boomers will hopefully die in the next 5 years to make the difference. All we can hope for now is that the Labour party doesn't swing right back into Blairism and that they pass the torch to a more photogenic and likable leader...
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Dec 13, 2019 07:50
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loving Goodhart was right. Not in terms of his views of the matter, but in terms of the terrain.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:50
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What a lovely loving country to wake up in
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Dec 13, 2019 07:52
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Kraftwerk posted:This is by far the biggest silver lining to this category 100 Hurricane cloud hovering over the British Isles right now. You can't really blame Labour for what happens next. The Tories will own it all and more gammony boomers will hopefully die in the next 5 years to make the difference. LMAO it’s ALWAYS going to be someone else’s fault, at least until Labour deliver the right-wing ‘moderate’ that the media wants
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Dec 13, 2019 07:53
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So if Corbyn plans to stay long enough to hand over leadership to someone younger but with similar politics and who somehow hopefully won’t arouse as much fanatical hatred from the liberal establishment, does such a person even exist? Any of the senior figures in the party at the moment fit the bill, or does it need to be someone completely new?
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Dec 13, 2019 07:53
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Kraftwerk posted:This is by far the biggest silver lining to this category 100 Hurricane cloud hovering over the British Isles right now. You can't really blame Labour for what happens next. The Tories will own it all and more gammony boomers will hopefully die in the next 5 years to make the difference. We've been waiting for the gammony boomers to die for the past decade now
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Dec 13, 2019 07:53
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Darth Walrus posted:The current election map looks a lot like the post-Brexit constituency map. You go hardline Remain, you're jettisoning a huge majority of seats. Labour's wishy-washy "we'll decide on the most important political issue of the era after the elections" stance means they were either incapable of taking a decision if you took it at face value or that they were so spineless that they avoided taking sides in order not to offend anyone. It was the worst possible option since it alienated both Leavers and Remainers. And Corbyn has consistently been less popular among the British public than a lying clown who undermined democracy by suspending parliament. He was a bad candidate.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:53
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Lid posted:SA forum posters are by and large educated white males from urban areas that had internet access in the early millenium. They are not on average members of the rural working class nor a good cross section of general society. As horrifying as it is you will find better cross sections in the brain deadening twitter and facebook posts as being uneducated and offensive ang bigotted isnt bannable there (nor is it bannable from society or voting). This wasn't really what led us to believe it was going to go well though. It was several things: -2017 gave us a better result than expected by a long way, and gave us a huge sense of momentum and strength to build on. -Much of that was accredited to the youth turnout and large number of youth registrations, which meant that when we saw even larger registrations, heavily skewed towards the young, it was easy to think we were going to do better. -The polls were against us, but polling has developed an extremely bad reputation over the past ~decade so it was very, very easy to discount it, especially as, again, 2017 saw us doing vastly better than almost any pollster said we would. -The Labour manifesto seemed to be extremely well received. It was rife with popular, good, effective policies that would have made life better for almost everyone in the country. -We had incredible energy on the ground from all accounts, activists up and down the country, absolutely massive door knocking and leafletting efforts, huge fundraising, etc.. And yeah by definition that's likely to be somewhat inflated and stuff because nobody wants to say "Actually yeah our ground game is shite" but there really looked to be something there. Especially compared to IDS knocking on doors by himself and whatever the poo poo. -The tory campaign was so bad in so many ways. It was historically bad. It was epochally bad. It was unfathomably incompetent, lacking in almost everything that is thought to be needed for winning an election. Johnson did badly at the debates to the point of being laughed at by the audience. He didn't even show up to some of them. He did the Phonegate thing and revealed himself to be an utterly callous monster, and ten million plus people saw that video. He hid in a loving fridge! I'll be honest, I was ready to believe incompetence could still win, I was ready to believe mendacity could, even evil. But I never for a second thought such rank and naked cowardice would be anything except an electoral catastrophe. I assumed there would be no internal Tory examination of their failures precisely because they would all just say "Well it was Boris, wasn't it? Hiding from any scrutiny and looking weak." -We were always between a rock and a hard place on Brexit but anecdotally a huge number of us knew people who said things like "I'm not super on Labour's policy but it's not enough to stop me voting for them" or "I'd prefer a strong Remain stance but this is the only viable way to stop Brexit" or "I'm for Leave/Remain but putting it back to the people, with a deal that wouldn't crush us if we took it, is the only chance of healing the divisions." This one's probably the most fart-huffing one because, yes, purely anecdotal, but when I managed to get my parents to come around a bit on Corbyn because of his stance it was hard not to feel that progress was being made. But we didn't see a lot of people going to the Lib Dems (Despite the fact they've won gently caress all seats they grew their vote share healthily) either. The assumption was if Labour chooses Remain we lose a lot of people to Tories/BXP, but if we choose Leave we lose a lot of people to Lib Dems, especially the kids who we were thinking would be a huge factor for us. As I said, we tried to thread the needle instead. Maybe that couldn't be done, but I understand why the attempt was made, and why it was seeming like a good idea until about nine hours ago. -Purely today while polling was ongoing we had people reporting having to queue up when they'd never had to before, and pictures and videos from polling stations of kids lining up around the block to cast their votes. The major youth turnout we had earlier predicted seemed to be getting borne out. Personally, I also thought that the Brexit Party were no real danger to Labour, and boy am I eating poo poo on that now. I had assumed they were more likely to split the tory vote than anything - and that Labour leavers who couldn't support Labour's plans would simply go Tory instead. I'm guessing what happened is, a lot of people who can't bring themselves to vote tory could bring themselves to vote for BXP, regardless of whether it's a distinction without a difference. So yeah we got caught the gently caress out here, and badly, and a lot of hearts are broken as a result. But, without denying that we're a bit echoey ITT, I think a lot more went into it than just that. That turned into a loving essay, sorry. I guess I write when I'm upset lol
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Dec 13, 2019 07:54
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A whole 5 years of tory government for something that'll be done by the end of January. loving ridiculous. We do need a good leader on the left, though I'm struggling to think of anyone who'd be both charismatic and willing to fight dirty. Go for the slogans, the lowest common denominator, the bullshit. Maybe we don't even know em yet
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Dec 13, 2019 07:54
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Well, even if we were deluded, it was nice hoping with you all for a while. 
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Dec 13, 2019 07:54
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Out of curiosity, if the parliament votes to leave to Brexit on or before Januar 31, would it be a hard Brexit or does Boris still have a deal with the EU that would take effect? (and if so, wasn't this just a worse version of the deal Theresa May had?)
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Dec 13, 2019 07:56
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ronya posted:one's kindly jam grandad is another's shifty prevaricator The Brexit thing was always an impossible position to triangulate on - fundamentally Labour had two completely opposite constituencies, the cities telling them gently caress Brexit and everywhere else telling them gently caress Europe. I don't think a non-Corbyn leader could have done any better than the policy Corbyn eventually settled on, and that internal war within the party over it would have probably ended up with the same impression of dithering by the leader. The choice to go for a trad Labour message everywhere else to try and keep those heartlands in the camp wouldn't have had any credibility coming from a New Labour leader, and Numbers Fuckstein wrangling with tax credits wouldn't have got Blyth Valley to stay red. The media are already pivoting to claiming that it's socialism wot lost it and that's the one thing we need to guard against over the coming months.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:56
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It sure didn't take long for the "we need to be more racist" vultures of social democracy to show up like they always do at times like these.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:57
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ronya posted:huge surge in CON vote share, including in CON/LAB marginals,.even with surges in overall turnout Er, Tories gained 1.2% over 2017, Lib Dems gained 4.2%. Brexit got 2.0% from a standing start. It didn't net them anything, except the Johnson brexit we warned them it would, but the Lib Dems have been by far the biggest beneficiaries of the Labour collapse as far as can be seen this morning.
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Dec 13, 2019 07:57
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Slashrat posted:Out of curiosity, if the parliament votes to leave to Brexit on or before Januar 31, would it be a hard Brexit or does Boris still have a deal with the EU that would take effect? (and if so, wasn't this just a worse version of the deal Theresa May had?) He has an even bigger majority than when the DUP were propping up the government. So that's a border along the Irish sea, a transition period that lasts until 2020 and some other poo poo from Theresa May's deal. The WTO is having a bit of a tiz at the minute. The Trump impeachment is moving along, though won't have a decision about that until late January (then Mike Pence? I've not been following USPOL for a bit now) ugh
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Dec 13, 2019 08:00
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Lid posted:The question is how will you win them - you cannot simultaneously hold progressive social positions of the cosmopolitan educated middle class while simultaneously courting the isolationist xenophobic uneducated rural working class. What is your party going to aim for and believe when its stuck in trying to appease two hroups that are so diametrically opposed? The party of immigrants relying on voters who see them as invaders. The party of science and technology relying on voters that believe that Ludd Was Right. Seems to me that is the kind of thinking that works against your cause, and you know rurals can tell too that you think of them as uneducated idiots and don't really care about their communities other than for votes. This is an endemic problem on the left, the left used to be anti-globalization, I remember the big anti WTO protests in the 90s and also how basically all their warnings came true. Now the left is largely pro-globalization and as long as that is how things stand, you will only win votes in cities and it's not enough to win with. I am pretty sure you can make for a non-racist non xenophobic argument against globalization, the left used to do it and so perhaps get these areas back, but then you will loose the votes of the urban areas. Globalization has driven a wedge in society and split up the working classes and made things really bad for the left.
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Dec 13, 2019 08:01
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Again, if we should take something from this for the next election, US or UK or otherwise it is: Don't funking believe the Poll Unskewers. At least this one apologized: https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1204874638276415488?s=20 https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205262038945140736?s=20
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Dec 13, 2019 08:01
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Okay get entirely hosed media class. They're already saying "Well maybe now the fash have no opposition they'll be a lot less fash" on Sky News.
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Dec 13, 2019 08:01
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Ms Adequate posted:Er, Tories gained 1.2% over 2017, Lib Dems gained 4.2%. Brexit got 2.0% from a standing start. It didn't net them anything, except the Johnson brexit we warned them it would, but the Lib Dems have been by far the biggest beneficiaries of the Labour collapse as far as can be seen this morning. Yeh this is true. Lots of places had the tories gain very little but labour lost ~10% so the seat fell anyway.
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Dec 13, 2019 08:02
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justcola posted:He has an even bigger majority than when the DUP were propping up the government. So that's a border along the Irish sea, a transition period that lasts until 2020 and some other poo poo from Theresa May's deal. The Senate will coordinate with the President's lawyers to make sure the trial goes exactly as they want it to, so don't worry, Donny's gonna stick around.
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Dec 13, 2019 08:03
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I think swinson has deleted her twitter
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Dec 13, 2019 08:05
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I mean on reflection the media will *always* have to pivot to blaming socialism for this defeat because ultimately Brexit is their loving fault and they know this in their lizard brains.
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Dec 13, 2019 08:07
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