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Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
They won't of course

https://twitter.com/dsquareddigest/status/1205262049430966272?s=19

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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Orange Devil posted:

I have 2 takeaways that I can't get away from:

1. "They go low, we go high" was bullshit when Michelle Obama was going on about it and it's bullshit now. Our political enemies are murdering people by the thousands. Treat them like that to their face and gently caress all decorum. Trump's "lock her up" and "you'd be in jail" helped him win and still helps him remain popular, even though it's obvious bullshit.

2. If we're going to want the working class onside, how many more elections will we lose before we admit that the working class loving hates labour-migration? They hate free movement and outsourcing. What they see is either their jobs going out to some other country or someone from another country coming in and either taking their job or depressing their wages. And they're not wrong about that. This is a clear and predictable economic effect and it objectively fucks the working class. It helped gently caress the US election, it drove Brexit, it just hosed this election, and we see the alternative in New Zealand where Labour did win. We either come up with policies to address this head on (which I can't see any way other than directly tackling labour-migration as a bad thing) or we will see this sentiment get coopted and turned into a racist frenzy as our enemies focus it fully onto the labour-migrants and away from the neoliberal politicians and business owners who created it and benefit from it.


As an addendum to 2: I've worked in warehousing and distribution in the Netherlands for the past 5 years. That means the majority of my colleagues is eastern European, first almost entirely Polish, now more and more Romanian. A lot of those colleagues are absolutely great people and I've become friends with a whole bunch of them. At the same time, unionization has been declining the more old Dutch colleagues are retiring and being replaced with more eastern Europeans. I see absolutely atrocious things happening to some of the most vulnerable temp workers from those places simply because they don't know their rights, don't speak the language, are young and stuck on temp contracts and usually have had what little support network they might have had back where they come from broken up by their migration(s) (so many have worked in multiple countries and sometimes easily in over a dozen vastly different jobs). How the gently caress do you even begin to organize a crowd like that? The sad fact is that it'd be infinitely easier to push back on some of the poo poo the company has been pushing if the vast majority of my colleagues were Dutch instead. And it is absolutely true that the reason warehouse workers' wages have been stagnant for over a decade now is because there's always been another new desolate eastern European place turbofucked by capitalism they can bus in desperate people from to replace the ones who are finally too fed up with it (or worse).

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






Labour cannot go right, it just needs to cede the Center right to the Lib Dems and pact up

Aphex-
Jan 29, 2006

Dinosaur Gum
If Labour did go back to the centre I wouldn't have a political home any more and I only just loving got one like 4 years ago.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you
But what kind of left? Is it internationalist and open, or is it nationalist and closed? That’s the schism in the left, and Labour is going to lose one of those groups.

Kin
Nov 4, 2003

Sometimes, in a city this dirty, you need a real hero.

oxford_town posted:

he doesn't have a seat, so, probably no

Sorry, got confused about which seat he was sitting in. Thought he was one of the last lib dems standing.

Wouldn't have surprised me if that was game game plan though.

Antagonism
Jul 28, 2010

I'm taking some comfort in that we've finally got rid of Chris Leslie and that Nottingham East has gone back to Labour. Even better that we now have a decent (and I believe the youngest) MP in Nadia Whittome.

Aramoro
Jun 1, 2012




Sakurazuka posted:

Can't cope with today, 6 1/2 hours until I can drink myself into a stupor

Luckily for me it's out Office Christmas party today so drinking starts at 12.

stev
Jan 22, 2013

Please be excited.



Pesmerga posted:

But what kind of left? Is it internationalist and open, or is it nationalist and closed? That’s the schism in the left, and Labour is going to lose one of those groups.

Well it just lost the second one so...


At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Labour lurched towards the centre and we saw a new left wing Momentum-inspired party splinter off and get a lot of support on the left before 2024. Further splitting the non-Tory vote forever.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

stev posted:

Well it just lost the second one so...


At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Labour lurched towards the centre and we saw a new left wing Momentum-inspired party splinter off and get a lot of support on the left before 2024. Further splitting the non-Tory vote forever.

My gut instinct is the latter group aren’t winnable anyway, as they’ll always go for the most hardline option. But there aren’t enough in the first group either. The post-war period is basically a statistical blip that I’m not sure can be recreated.

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp1aP_CEq44

There'll be war in our cities
There'll be riots at the mall
There'll be blood on our doorsteps
And panics at the ball
All our cities gonna burn
All our bridges gonna snap
All our pennies gonna rot
Lightning roll across our tracks
All our children gonna die
All our children gonna die
All our children gonna die
All our children gonna die
Then the west will rise again
Yeah the west will rise again
The west will rise again
The west will rise again

So goodnight vain children
Tonight is yours, the lights are yours
If you'd just ask for more, then poverty and war

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






Pesmerga posted:

But what kind of left? Is it internationalist and open, or is it nationalist and closed? That’s the schism in the left, and Labour is going to lose one of those groups.

It can’t be a party of both. So it needs to be nationalist and closed and strong, let the Lib Dems be the nice (weak) guys, and actually get into power.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

oxford_town posted:

here's a positive slant

the best case scenario for labour was a minority government with lib dem, SNP, plaid and green support

the SNP condition for support would be a second scottish referendum and the lib dems (along with the labour manifesto) would have required a second brexit ref

a corbyn government would then have spent the vast majority of its time and energy organising and fighting those two referendums, with little if any time or political support to enact significant social and economic change

the outcome would then be 'corbynism has failed' at a subsequent GE.

this is where i am, as much as i desperately wanted to see corbyn no.10 by any means the coalition would have been highly unstable and pre-occupied with brexit and scottish indy. we would have been spent trying to birth the tories last terrible idea.

the tories may have a majority but they have to deliver and own brexit and the slow dissolution of the union. the people in ex-labour seats who lent their vote to boris want something in return and it's sure as gently caress not lower taxes for banks.

thatcher won in a similarly devastating fashion in 1987 and was removed just over two years later, lets have it.

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRULtXn6W0s

It’s hard, we got our heads down and our hackles up
Our backs against the wall, I can feel your heart racing
None of this was written in stone
The current’s fast but the river moves slow
And I can feel things changing
Even when I’m weak and I’m breaking
I stand weeping at the train station
‘Cause I can see your faces
I love people’s faces

Whatever happens I'm glad to be with you all

Fans
Jun 27, 2013

A reptile dysfunction
Labours controlled by the membership now, we only go back to the Center if we want it.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

Beefeater1980 posted:

It can’t be a party of both. So it needs to be nationalist and closed and strong, let the Lib Dems be the nice (weak) guys, and actually get into power.

No place for me, my wife or my foreign really daughter in that vision though.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said
also if you think this is bad spare a thought for the all the socialists who woke up in 1931 to con 210->470 lab 235->54 at the absolute depth of the great depression. they stuck it out and we got the nhs 15 years later.

Braggart
Nov 10, 2011

always thank the rock hider
Silver linings

A third of the country believed us. Perhaps that is our floor now.

We have an even more engaged youth vote than we did before, and they are broadly on our side.

A bunch of non-voters voted for us. They will probably vote again if we can inspire them again.

The Liberal Democrats have destroyed themselves. Aside from their true believers, they are widely seen now as absolutely untrustworthy charlatans, and a significant chunk of the population is going to blame them for some constituency results. Ex-Tory Sam Gyimah betrayed the residents of Grenfel extremely blatantly. Jo Swinson lied obviously and repeatedly. I think the Lib Dems might be even more finished than they were after 2010.

Obvious media bias has come to the fore. The BBC's credibility is gone. We no longer look like conspiracy theorists to much of the population. I think the country is now divided into "The media is biased" and "The media is biased but is on our side so I'm okay with that". The terms of debate have irrevocably changed.

The Brexit Party turned out to be a betrayal of their voters. Standing down in every Tory seat did not go down well. It seems to have worked, but I don't think it's a trick that can be played twice. Some of the Right's voting base will be massively disillusioned by this, hating both BXP and CON. Also, they are old. They won't last forever. On the other hand, there are constant potential new converts for us.

Our policies are out there. Many of them were very popular. I suspect they would've been more popular if not for cynicism and Brexit. We've given the Overton window a good kicking, and this is our new baseline. We may be able to go further in some regards in future.

Take this all together, and over time more people may realise that we are the only option they can trust.

One piece of cloud: we have lost Scotland, and I don't think we're getting it back until we are in government and can prove that we are worth voting for. I expect the next Labour government will need to work with the SNP.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

Rustybear posted:

also if you think this is bad spare a thought for the all the socialists who woke up in 1931 to con 210->470 lab 235->54 at the absolute depth of the great depression. they stuck it out and we got the nhs 15 years later.

Yeah, that 15 year period isn’t one I really want to think about.

Venomous
Nov 7, 2011







toxx complete.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Fans posted:

Labours controlled by the membership now, we only go back to the Center if we want it.

Yeah starmer might have been popular before but I can't see the membership going for someone who was critical to backing a second referendum

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said
he has to have cooked himself i think, RLB or Rayner's to loose really.

Rustybear
Nov 16, 2006
what the thunder said

Pesmerga posted:

Yeah, that 15 year period isn’t one I really want to think about.

no i get that, but if they could live through all that and still believe a better world is possible with enough energy to make it happen we can too.

ROFLBOT
Apr 1, 2005
i know its little consolation but thread - welcome to Australia 19/05/19

"poo poo's hosed"

genuinely feel sorry for you guys :(


[edit] Scotland, you know what you need to do.

ROFLBOT fucked around with this message at 12:00 on Dec 13, 2019

oxford_town
Aug 6, 2009

Jose posted:

Yeah starmer might have been popular before but I can't see the membership going for someone who was critical to backing a second referendum

i think labour now needs to divorce itself from brexit; the traditional vote was torn apart by trying to placate both remain and leave (and it was an impossible position - committing to either side would also have doomed the vote share). starmer and thornberry were, I suspect, kept largely out of the spotlight due to being visibly pro-remain characters.

they, particularly starmer, might stand a chance in a future election (a lot of the 'traditional labour voters' who 'couldn't vote for corbyn' described starmer as a viable alternative), but only I think if brexit is 'done' and politics can move on to talking about other issues...

Guildencrantz
May 1, 2012

IM ONE OF THE GOOD ONES

Rustybear posted:

also if you think this is bad spare a thought for the all the socialists who woke up in 1931 to con 210->470 lab 235->54 at the absolute depth of the great depression. they stuck it out and we got the nhs 15 years later.

It also took six years of total war that killed millions and devastated half the world before a plurality of people in the west went "huh maybe cooperation and solidarity are good and rabid nationalism is bad".

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Beefeater1980 posted:

It can’t be a party of both. So it needs to be nationalist and closed and strong, let the Lib Dems be the nice (weak) guys, and actually get into power.

And then you have elected a nationalist party. What does the colour of it matter?

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
i also agree with this take

https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1205441387002499072?s=20

Guavanaut
Nov 27, 2009

Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998



Toilet Rascal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbx4kAaDOzk

ronya posted:

migration is passé, look at the voter priority polling - brexit is no longer comoving reliably with migration. Crime and economy concerns have pushed migration down
It's a shame that people only seem to love widely discredited methods of dealing with those.

Angepain
Jul 13, 2012

what keeps happening to my clothes

Rustybear posted:

no i get that, but if they could live through all that and still believe a better world is possible with enough energy to make it happen we can too.

a lot of them could not live through that, is the point

oxford_town
Aug 6, 2009

Rustybear posted:

this is where i am, as much as i desperately wanted to see corbyn no.10 by any means the coalition would have been highly unstable and pre-occupied with brexit and scottish indy. we would have been spent trying to birth the tories last terrible idea.

the tories may have a majority but they have to deliver and own brexit and the slow dissolution of the union. the people in ex-labour seats who lent their vote to boris want something in return and it's sure as gently caress not lower taxes for banks.

thatcher won in a similarly devastating fashion in 1987 and was removed just over two years later, lets have it.

yes and I think the tory party know that now - the manifesto promised anti-austerity measures (certainly nothing like labour, but still) and part of the appeal in those ex-labour, working class seats is that neither the EU nor New Labour is felt to have done anything for them when the times were good; the tories oddly have positioned themselves as the force for change for the better.

i suspect johnson will probably drift towards the centre-right in this government

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Guildencrantz posted:

It also took six years of total war that killed millions and devastated half the world before a plurality of people in the west went "huh maybe cooperation and solidarity are good and rabid nationalism is bad".

I've been saying for the past decade or so that I feel like we're heading towards another world war, within the next 15-20 years or so.

CGI Stardust
Nov 7, 2010


Brexit is but a door,
election time is but a window.

I'll be back

Beefeater1980 posted:

Well there your problem is that neoliberalism mass-enriched the global proletariat at the expense of the privileged western labour aristocracy.

It’s funny, I lived in Asia the last 15 years, and people in the countries I lived in don’t differentiate between Bill Gates and some dude in Cornwall who guts fish for £8 an hour. Because they get so much less than that. Liberalism, free trade, all that poo poo? It transfers wealth from us to them. Socialism, when we talk about it, means closing the door on them.

I don’t have any answers. Just immensely depressed that this is the case and how much it sucks.
worth pointing out here that the West currently benefits fairly heavily from net fiscal transfers from the Global South to the tune of $4tn (iirc) - if this wasn't happening, the Global South would be significantly better off, more for reinvestment etc., in which case an internationalist social democracy might help them by stopping this; also an internationalist socialism would help but lol at getting that

a more nationalist variety of either, on the other hand, would absolutely continue this extractive relationship and additionally Build The Wall (or local equivalent), and leave them to die once climate poo poo kicks off. neoliberalism will probably switch over to / continue this route; it has technically made advances in some places but they won't continue because the GS is going to be hit first and hardest, and it'll be a choice between helping the foreigns and preserving legitimacy at home

slightly more optimistic about China's chances just because they have the central control ability and have built up the wealth to maybe achieve something

everything is terrible :(

ed: although we shouldn't stop fighting for it

zhar
May 3, 2019

got a nice pounding headache to go along with my tory government this morning

Barry Foster
Dec 24, 2007

What is going wrong with that one (face is longer than it should be)

zhar posted:

got a nice pounding headache to go along with my tory government this morning

Keep drinking, it helps

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
cool

https://twitter.com/LordJohnMann/status/1205426629700464640?s=20

gh0stpinballa
Mar 5, 2019

since we're sharing music and poems here an extremely fitting mood right now

https://youtu.be/3KgB-sI2H-c

The bloody scene is bloody sad
The bloody news is bloody bad
The bloody weed is bloody turf
The bloody speed is bloody surf
The bloody folks are bloody daft
Don't make me bloody laugh
It bloody hurts to look around
Everywhere in chicken town
The bloody train is bloody late
You bloody wait you bloody wait
You're bloody lost and bloody found
Stuck in loving chicken town
The bloody view is bloody vile
For bloody miles and bloody miles
The bloody babies bloody cry
The bloody flowers bloody die
The bloody food is bloody muck
The bloody drains are bloody hosed
The colour scheme is bloody brown
Everywhere in chicken town

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


I feel like poo poo this morning and I didn't touch the drink and got plenty of sleep. Clearly Boris is to blame.

zhar
May 3, 2019

turns out hope, after all, was a lie

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Flayer
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Buglord

Rustybear posted:

also if you think this is bad spare a thought for the all the socialists who woke up in 1931 to con 210->470 lab 235->54 at the absolute depth of the great depression. they stuck it out and we got the nhs 15 years later.
Almost 6 years of that 15 years was taken up by a global war costing the lives of over 70million people started by fascists. Can't wait!

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