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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Noes win again in the Netanyahu indictment market with a fresh new gray clarification box.

It was free money for those of us who understood that "indictment" is a legal process, not a media event, and the market closes at the end of the month, well before formal charges can actually be brought.

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Ride that impeachment train on home, baby.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-by-year-end-2019

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Any idea when the vote would potentially be? The calendar here https://www.house.gov/legislative-activity/2019-12-12 only seems to show them in session through next Thursday, but maybe its normal to only post a schedule a week ahead of time.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Bernie Yes prices are finally creeping up

It's happening

The North Tower
Aug 20, 2007

You should throw it in the ocean.

WampaLord posted:

Bernie Yes prices are finally creeping up

It's happening

if Bernie sanders wins the presidency I will make 40 thousand dollars. please help me reach my dream

edit: 75 thousand considering student loan forgiveness

The North Tower has issued a correction as of 05:28 on Dec 10, 2019

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



if only i had thought of predictit when he had his heart attack and went all in

The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984
If I had only had the cash at the time..... :sigh:

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ScrubLeague
Feb 11, 2007

Nap Ghost
i put my remaining 2016 cash on bernie at 14 cents, and i cashed out some gains yesterday to lose half of them on no impeachment today.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

why would you bet on no impeachment

ScrubLeague
Feb 11, 2007

Nap Ghost
didn't think the house would get around to it this week

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



The Joe Man posted:

If I had only had the cash at the time..... :sigh:



poo poo 15c is still pretty cheap

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

The North Tower posted:

if Bernie sanders wins the presidency I will make 40 thousand dollars. please help me reach my dream

edit: 75 thousand considering student loan forgiveness

If Bernie wins I will make back all the money I donated to him plus a bit more.

Then I can donate it all again to his 2024 campaign :bernin:

The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984

Shear Modulus posted:

poo poo 15c is still pretty cheap
yeah but these days i have even less cash!!

100 HOGS AGREE
Oct 13, 2007
Grimey Drawer
I just got 20 bucks on the berno but I bought in when it was like 9 cents

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Shares of No in the "Hillary files to run by the end of December" market are available around 90c. Beats the hell out of the other Hillary markets since it pays out in 3 weeks.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6178

drk
Jan 16, 2005
No's of Hilary running for 2020 (https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614) have been trading below 80c in the past couple days too. Double the return, but yeah have to hold a lot longer for full payout.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

I just want to say that the comments sections on PredictIt are wild and I love them

In the Dem nominee market one, you have Bernie fans posting passionate and solid arguments for why Bernie is extremely undervalued and has a good shot of winning the thing, and the replies are just poo poo like "Commie can't win"

The Presidential market one is basically half Trump twitter crowd and half of the Dem nominee market mixing together and yelling at each other

And anywhere you go YangGangers are talking about how Andrew "MATH" Yang totally has a path to the nomination

Fake edit -

How can you not love this poo poo?

ScrubLeague
Feb 11, 2007

Nap Ghost
had like a 6 cent gain on jezza before i had a 19 cent loss

Jenny Agutter
Mar 18, 2009

ScrubLeague posted:

had like a 6 cent gain on jezza before i had a 19 cent loss

rip

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
putting it all on trump!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Hope y'all pushed all-in on impeachment. It was quite the payday!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

WampaLord posted:

I just want to say that the comments sections on PredictIt are wild and I love them

In the Dem nominee market one, you have Bernie fans posting passionate and solid arguments for why Bernie is extremely undervalued and has a good shot of winning the thing, and the replies are just poo poo like "Commie can't win"

The Presidential market one is basically half Trump twitter crowd and half of the Dem nominee market mixing together and yelling at each other

And anywhere you go YangGangers are talking about how Andrew "MATH" Yang totally has a path to the nomination

Fake edit -

How can you not love this poo poo?

The 5 or so insane CHUDs who post in every Hillary market are my favorites. I almost feel guilty taking their money, since their fixation and delusion are borderline diagnosable as... something.

Then there's the one guy who just spams variations of "shady old lady Hillary is too ill to run" and "shady old lady Hillary can't run with her defibrillator vest" constantly. I can't even tell if that guy is trolling or if he's part of the borderline-ill CHUD crowd, it owns.

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong
What is everyone else doing with the sweet, sweet "Will Hillary run by 12/30" giveaway sweepstakes now that it cashed?

Burn Zone
May 22, 2004



crossposting this from the Bernie thread

GonadTheBallbarian posted:

No, that isn't a poll. That is literally fake news.

It looks good for Berno, but is, in fact, horseshit

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/972887501332533248

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/972901375511334912

drk
Jan 16, 2005

Merlot Brougham posted:

What is everyone else doing with the sweet, sweet "Will Hillary run by 12/30" giveaway sweepstakes now that it cashed?

Putting it into the Will hillary run by 1/31 market, of course

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Merlot Brougham posted:

What is everyone else doing with the sweet, sweet "Will Hillary run by 12/30" giveaway sweepstakes now that it cashed?

Sitting on most of my funds at the moment, waiting for something juicy.

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008
Predictit holding onto the q anon theory that Comey is being secretly prosecuted or something because these guys refuse to cash out my no charges filed by 12/31 shares.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Here is a decent Yang market for folks with some extra cash and patience:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6112/Will-Andrew-Yang-win-at-least-one-primary

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

Seems pretty safe at this point to bet against Yang making the January debate. He’s only got 1 of the needed 4 qualifying polls (since November 14th) and he’s only got 8 days left. His desperate plea for the DNC to commission its own polls was met with a “lol nope” last week. No still trading in the low to mid 80’s


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6244/Will-Andrew-Yang-qualify-for-the-January-Democratic-debate

bawfuls has issued a correction as of 01:51 on Jan 3, 2020

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008
I have been completely hosed by Steyer buying his way into this debate. I had bets against him and for five candidates on the stage that I bought up as sure thing 10% returns whoops!

bawfuls
Oct 28, 2009

I got burned by the Steyer poll too but betting against Yang making it has canceled that out

ScrubLeague
Feb 11, 2007

Nap Ghost
is there a market for how much bloomberg will spend on ads this quarter

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Comrayn posted:

I have been completely hosed by Steyer buying his way into this debate. I had bets against him and for five candidates on the stage that I bought up as sure thing 10% returns whoops!

I thought about buying that one, but thankfully instead I went with the blue chip "Yang wins any primary? (No)" wager instead.

Comrayn
Jul 22, 2008

bawfuls posted:

I got burned by the Steyer poll too but betting against Yang making it has canceled that out

I bet against both of them too but the downside of Steyer making it was waaaayyy more than the upside of getting Yang right. I’ve been owned big time.

Merlot Brougham
Dec 16, 2004

The White Darryl Strawberry


Salad Prong
Predictit Thread: I've been owned big time.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Merlot Brougham posted:

Predictit Thread: I've been owned big time.

should've just bet on bernie

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010



It's almost there, and once he overtakes Joe it's all over (on PredictIt and IRL)

My only regret is not pumping in more money but I'm not exactly rolling in dough over here and I've been donating plenty to Bernie

LMAO at Amy being below hypothetical Hillary run

Class Warcraft
Apr 27, 2006


Yeah I got a ton of Bernie shares at 7 cents right after his heart attack and I've been slowly cashing out in chunks as he goes higher and higher. Already made a decent profit and still got 700 shares left.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Class Warcraft posted:

Yeah I got a ton of Bernie shares at 7 cents right after his heart attack and I've been slowly cashing out in chunks as he goes higher and higher. Already made a decent profit and still got 700 shares left.

Oh I am holding all the way. lmao if you didn't realize this whole time that Bernie was winning

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The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984
Wish I had maxed:

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