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But Rocks Hurt Head posted:cool cool Cool COOL
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Jan 3, 2020 05:02
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I'm pretty unconvinced Iran actually has the clandestine power projection John Dolan seems to think they have. My bet for retaliations will be some kind of relatively large bombing or militia attack in Iraq.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:03
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Tempora Mutantur posted:if lions led by donkeys has taught me one thing, it's that iraq and iran have a massive bodycount against one another over the last 50 years, including 45,000+ just due to a battle that involved electrified swamp water, so I'm gonna guess quite a few iraqi would cheer the death of an iranian military leader who's responsible for killing their countrymen in general no iraq is a shiite majority country that was ruled by a sunni dictator during the iran-iraq war. the US helpfully removed saddam hussein, the dynamics are completely different. iraq is a divided country with different factions but far, far more pro-iran that it is pro-american.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:04
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Just enjoying the few moments I have off from work and oh hey why is the middle east thread got like 10 new pages? Oh I guess something happened in tur 
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Jan 3, 2020 05:08
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cda posted:Oh no their precious sovereignty lmao that’s...that’s how countries function. outside of puppets and there is no way they willingly go that route
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Jan 3, 2020 05:09
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really queer Christmas posted:Just enjoying the few moments I have off from work and oh hey why is the middle east thread got like 10 new pages? Oh I guess something happened in tur yeah i logged on to twitter earlier shortly after confirmation of the deaths and all i was seeing were people's responses / reactions. the 1-2 min of sheer panic i had until i figured out what was exactly going on was something i look forward to repeating for every breaking news story from now until the end of time
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Jan 3, 2020 05:10
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A gypsy put a curse on me that said “The girl that I marry has got to be an Airborne Ranger with a CIB”. Looks like I’m getting hitched imminently.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:13
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the idea that Iran is just going to take this on the chin or do some low key, stealth bombings or whatever is pretty naive. they're gonna hit back and hit back hard. no one is afraid of trump.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:13
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But Rocks Hurt Head posted:yeah i logged on to twitter earlier shortly after confirmation of the deaths and all i was seeing were people's responses / reactions. Remember when we thought Hawaii was gonna get nuked? Good times
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Jan 3, 2020 05:14
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cool dance moves posted:Remember when we thought Hawaii was gonna get nuked? Good times
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Jan 3, 2020 05:15
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Press TV is reporting that Soleimani had "information that will lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton"
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Jan 3, 2020 05:15
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CharlestheHammer posted:that’s...that’s how countries function. As a country that has been mercilessly hosed with by America for 70 years, I don't think this is going to surprise them. They're pursuing a long term strategy for actual sovereignty. It is not a binary - you're sovereign or you're not - and the idea that they have to respond directly to this because otherwise they're giving up something that they very well know they already don't have is silly. Unlike the in the US, Iranian officials aren't dumb as dogshit.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:17
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Smirking_Serpent posted:Press TV is reporting that Soleimani had "information that will lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton" https://twitter.com/getfiscal/status/1212947131679625217
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Jan 3, 2020 05:17
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KaptainKrunk posted:the idea that Iran is just going to take this on the chin or do some low key, stealth bombings or whatever is pretty naive. they're gonna hit back and hit back hard. Iran's leaders have tended to be provocative but cautious, and they have a lot to lose at this point. The US is still massively more powerful than they are, so inviting a devastating response would be idiotic, and I don't think they'll take that route. That said, Trump throwing poo poo like this on top of the economic war does put us closer to the threshold where they decide the US won't settle for anything less than their destruction anyway, so they go for it. I just don't think we're there quite yet. Dr Kool-AIDS has issued a correction as of 05:20 on Jan 3, 2020 |
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Jan 3, 2020 05:17
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Sinteres posted:Iran's leaders have tended to be provocative but cautious, and they have a lot to lose at this point. The US is still massively more powerful than they are, so inviting a devastating response would be idiotic, and I don't think they'll take that route. Yeah exactly.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:18
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This just makes Barbara Lee whip so much more. 
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Jan 3, 2020 05:20
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Chuka Umana posted:lmao at everyone thinking this is going to mean anything other than: i hope you are right i fear you are wrong
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Jan 3, 2020 05:22
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KaptainKrunk posted:the idea that Iran is just going to take this on the chin or do some low key, stealth bombings or whatever is pretty naive. they're gonna hit back and hit back hard. im pretty scared of trump carpet bombing lots of brown people for no goddamn reason
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Jan 3, 2020 05:24
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cool dance moves posted:Iirc war nerd said iran and hezbollah work together real close, including in Hezbollah's assassination plots. So I'm guessing iran wouldn't flatten Saudi arabia over this, but probably take the more subtle approach of merking some dudes really important to US designs in the region hezbollah once kidnapped the cia station chief in beirut and tortured him to death https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2019-02-12/beirut-rules-murder-cia-station-chief-and-hezbollahs-war-against
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Jan 3, 2020 05:24
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fknlo posted:I honestly don't see how they could just sit back and do nothing after this. To say that it would show weakness both internally and externally is probably an understatement. They could wait 11 months and have normalized relations with the U.S.. That would be a sign of immense strength.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:24
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this deserves a re-listen too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ6Tzij-Pbs
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Jan 3, 2020 05:25
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Addamere posted:im pretty scared of trump carpet bombing lots of brown people for no goddamn reason So the same old, same old?
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Jan 3, 2020 05:25
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cool dance moves posted:merking some dudes really important to US designs in the region inshallah
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Jan 3, 2020 05:26
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Raskolnikov38 posted:tbh i dunno if we'd even send/need a carrier group in a ground invasion of iran. the saudis will just let us use their airbases The thing about surface to surface missiles is - what airbases?
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Jan 3, 2020 05:26
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Sinteres posted:Iran's leaders have tended to be provocative but cautious, and they have a lot to lose at this point. The US is still massively more powerful than they are, so inviting a devastating response would be idiotic, and I don't think they'll take that route. But they're going to do something. And that will probably provoke another US response. How many times does that repeat before it all melts down?
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Jan 3, 2020 05:26
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fknlo posted:But they're going to do something. And that will probably provoke another US response. How many times does that repeat before it all melts down? Skipping straight to suicide is still a bad option. They may as well see if they can drag us into another fight they can win in Iraq instead of losing everything from the get go.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:29
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Tempora Mutantur posted:trying real hard to channel that getfiscal energy rn *sportscaster voice* it’s been a long off-season and I think nobody is really sure exactly what Iran is going to show us out in the field *sportscaster #2 voice* well Jim the millennium challenge was a hell of a scrimmage wasn’t it? I’m telling you, if I were in charge of a carrier group I’d be brewing some extra coffee tonight *sportscaster #1 voice* bill no one can say with certainty but if the Iranians are really looking to show their stuff and by stuff I definitely mean asymmetric war tactics, their first target, they are going to hit anything but a carrier group. when’s that Saudi aramco IPO again? *2* fair enough and for the Iranians, they’ve gotta play chess here. without air superiority, you can’t just merk a dude to distract from your impeachment and an embassy tailgate party gone south Smirking_Serpent posted:Press TV is reporting that Soleimani had "information that will lead to the arrest of Hillary Clinton" lol
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Jan 3, 2020 05:30
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Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler
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Jan 3, 2020 05:35
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cool dance moves posted:Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler Except the Iranians aren't going to forget about this. We'll be feeling the consequences of this for years to come even if it doesn't lead to a full on war.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:36
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cool dance moves posted:Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler Iraq's all but guaranteed to go up in flames over this, so I don't think he'll have the luxury of losing interest right away. His party's a lot more dedicated to loving Iran than they are to loving Venezuela too, other than maybe Rubio.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:36
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sum posted:I'm pretty unconvinced Iran actually has the clandestine power projection John Dolan seems to think they have. My bet for retaliations will be some kind of relatively large bombing or militia attack in Iraq. Between Lebanon and Pakistan they have a huge ability to project power and call in favors from all the groups, governments, and political parties that they help out. Outside of that region it's less clear, but that's a big area to suddenly become dangerous for american interests. hth
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Jan 3, 2020 05:36
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cool dance moves posted:Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler Except that he just killed a national hero who was the heir-apparent and personal friend of the Supreme Leader of Iran, plus a number of other important people from organisations that hold huge grudges. They won't let things get back to normal.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:38
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Yeah nevermind that was a dumb post on my part
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Jan 3, 2020 05:38
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Darth Walrus posted:Except that he just killed a national hero who was the heir-apparent and personal friend of the Supreme Leader of Iran, plus a number of other important people from organisations that hold huge grudges. They won't let things get back to normal. Iran's a theocracy, he wasn't the heir apparent.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:39
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I’m curious to see what shoes #2 through N will be when they drop remember that US ally Japan did not corroborate the story about the tanker. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/18/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-distancing-u-s-claims-iranian-involvement-tanker-attacks/ Iran must have taken that whole fiasco as a signal.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:39
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cool dance moves posted:Yeah nevermind that was a dumb post on my part You'd be right if it was just a Trump thing and it required consistent effort on the part of the US.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:41
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cool dance moves posted:Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler I'm less worried about Trump than the NaSec ghouls that are coming out of the woodwork to slobber all over this. Hell they even wheeled Karl Rove out onto Fox News to talk about this.
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Jan 3, 2020 05:42
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IWW Online Branch posted:Except the Iranians aren't going to forget about this. We'll be feeling the consequences of this for years to come even if it doesn't lead to a full on war. I guess. The thing is, if you're Iran, what do you do differently than you were already doing?
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Jan 3, 2020 05:42
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They literally killed the guy who was the specific Iranian go between for every shia aligned militia and military in the entire region, so yes, it potentially has a lot of legs and those groups as a whole have a lot of capacity to stir up a mountain of poo poo. In practice, who the gently caress knows what will happen, it's way too early to say
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Jan 3, 2020 05:42
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cool dance moves posted:Dunno how comforting this is but I'm gonna post it: if the attempted coup in venezuela is any indication, trump is going to lose interest in two weeks and everything will go back to "normal" because the president of the united states is a toddler trump did not "lose interest" in venezuela, guaido or whoever is still there attempting to shoot down colombian airplanes with us money
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Jan 3, 2020 05:43
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