bulletsponge13 posted:That's fair. This has been the top argument in international relations academics for the last sixty years or so. Short answer: the more there are, the more nations will get them in response, proliferation spreads, use becomes inevitable. Counter-argument: proliferation leads to stability as nobody wants to trigger a nuclear exchange.
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Jan 6, 2020 20:19
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https://twitter.com/deebashadnia/status/1214224526151749633
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Jan 6, 2020 20:19
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Stultus Maximus posted:There is no legit reason beyond proliferation in general is bad. Nobody should have the loving bomb, and the more who have it, the higher the risk of someone setting off a nuclear war. That's basically it: The more bombs there are in general, the more likely something bad will happen. This reminds me of a 'fun' anecdote from Command and Control: During a study in... I wanna say it was late '50s, early '60s, some new leadership decided to take a close look at US Air Force accident rates. Doing some statistical analysis, they realized that in spite of the Air Force's protests that the chance of an individual bomb going off accidentally was 1/80,000, A) the actual chance was much higher, and B) even if the number was accurate and an individual weapon only had a very slim chance of going off accidentally, these numbers failed to account for the fact that there were tens of thousands of nuclear weapons in the inventory. Meaning, that in reality there was a 1/5 chance of an accidental thermonuclear detonation on US soil within the next ten years, and an accidental atomic detonation was about guaranteed under current safety practices. Frankly it's a miracle we didn't blow ourselves up already and more nukes anywhere merely add to the chance that we will eventually.
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Jan 6, 2020 20:20
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Command and Control is one of the most frightening texts I have ever read.
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Jan 6, 2020 20:23
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It's paywalled, but one of the top names in international relations and nuclear proliferation, Kenneth Waltz argued that Iran should get the bomb. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2012-06-15/why-iran-should-get-bomb
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Jan 6, 2020 20:24
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EBB posted:Command and Control is one of the most frightening texts I have ever read. My personal favorite story in there is that silo life was so lovely that basically a solid 50%+ of the missile crews were high at any given time, including the MPs assigned to making sure that the crews weren't high at any given time.
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Jan 6, 2020 20:27
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There is limited stability in Iran getting the bomb, but yeah Nonproliferation is also critical, but given the US/Russia/China inability to even make an agreement to nonproliferation among themselves, its hard to justify denying it to Iran for nonproliferation, as it just rings hollow.
CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Jan 6, 2020 |
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Jan 6, 2020 20:28
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bulletsponge13 posted:The anti-proliferation stance makes sense, but that isn't the stance of most who are against it. 
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Jan 6, 2020 20:33
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bulletsponge13 posted:Can anyone give me an actual, legit reason why Iran shouldn't have the bomb? Because the only reason I've been given is "they hate America!" And their rhetoric against Israel- which is a two way street. it's considerable more dangerous when a regional power holds a small number of nuclear weapons, because the weapons themselves and their delivery systems become immense strategic targets that are, more importantly, susceptible to a first-strike nullification, which in turn makes the holder of these weapons even more likely to conduct a preemptive nuclear first strike at the first sign of a large scale attack (history is littered with false positives, by the way). it boils down purely to a use-or-lose calculus. also, since KSA will not allow Iran to be the "sole" nuclear power (just ignore Israel, like everyone else in this scenario) in the region, they will acquire weapons of their own, which will of course start in small numbers, which presents the same scenario, just from the other side of the strait. it's the same issue as when India and Pakistan started their nuclear programs, except in a much smaller geographic area, so the danger is higher. if you only have a handful of nukes, and the other side has a handful of nukes, both sides could easily lose their entire arsenal in a first strike situation, so the odds of using them increases.
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Jan 6, 2020 20:40
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bulletsponge13 posted:The anti-proliferation stance makes sense, but that isn't the stance of most who are against it. The NPT enshrined the powers that already had it, and had enough carrots and sticks in it to prevent most regional powers from developing nuclear weapons, plus a lot of nations fell under the security umbrellas of the US or USSR. Some nations, mostly pariah states like Israel, Taiwan and South Africa developed nuclear weapons as deterrents, Ukraine inherited a massive nuclear arsenal. Both SK and Ukraine disarmed for very diffet reasons. India and Pakistan developed arms in a classic regional arms race between rivals- and it's worth noting that India and Pakistan have not had a large scale conventional war since both sides developed nukes. The current best argument against proliferation is what if Syria had been a nuclear armed power before the current civil war because fuuuuuuuck
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Jan 6, 2020 20:41
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Instead of fn2000s and FiveseveNs for everyone, it could have been nukes! Hurray!
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Jan 6, 2020 20:46
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It's a bad idea to have an authoritarian state ruled by a minority group theocracy have control of nuclear weapons that can be released at the sole discretion of a demagogue guy-wait gently caress
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Jan 6, 2020 20:49
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Shaun King is a loving idiot
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Jan 6, 2020 20:49
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Is this normal? https://twitter.com/1stArmoredDiv/status/1214224879492444160
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Jan 6, 2020 20:56
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https://twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1214249290303987713?s=19 Just think of how bad you have to have hosed up to get Israel to release a statement like that.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:00
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A bible club with guns.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:00
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Israel drops us like a hot potato the second it's inconvenient, I'm not surprised.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:01
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brains posted:also, since KSA will not allow Iran to be the "sole" nuclear power (just ignore Israel, like everyone else in this scenario) in the region, they will acquire weapons of their own, which will of course start in small numbers, which presents the same scenario, just from the other side of the strait. KSA has nukes, they're just currently sitting in Pakistan
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Jan 6, 2020 21:03
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Someone with more skill than me wanna replace the soundtrack with one of those ISIS video nasheeds and end with a title card "OBAMA'S MILITARY" ?
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Jan 6, 2020 21:04
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lol Soleimani won Edit: nevermind I guess! facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Jan 6, 2020 |
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Jan 6, 2020 21:08
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That Works posted:It's a bad idea to have an authoritarian state ruled by a minority group theocracy have control of nuclear weapons that can be released at the sole discretion of a demagogue guy-wait gently caress
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Jan 6, 2020 21:10
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facialimpediment posted:lol Soleimani won https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1214269546795872256
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Jan 6, 2020 21:11
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drat, good reporters (Reuters, WaPo, WSJ) got suckered by it. Welp! Edit: or maybe it's real! https://twitter.com/Mustafa_salimb/status/1214276204712345601?s=19 This is one of the reasons why the fears of deepfakes are overblown - everything is fake, real, and untrustworthy already! facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Jan 6, 2020 |
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Jan 6, 2020 21:12
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Nuclear disarmament only works if everyone does it. Just ask Gaddafi and Saddam.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:20
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facialimpediment posted:lol Soleimani won Nevermind my nevermind, it's real. https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1214278953629650944?s=19 https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/01/military-tells-iraq-preparing-move-200106195552545.html?__twitter_impression=true https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-withdrawal/u-s-led-coalition-says-it-will-withdraw-from-iraq-letter-idUSKBN1Z520A
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Jan 6, 2020 21:27
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Agree. The GWB, Obama, and Trump admin decisions on N Korea, Libya, and Iran, as well as modernization and not committing to radical stockpile reductions, have killed denuclearization and nonproliferation at least for the medium term. We better hope a armed society really is a polite society* cause that's the world we're stuck with. *It won't be
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Jan 6, 2020 21:28
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facialimpediment posted:lol Soleimani won lmao the afterlife monster kill
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Jan 6, 2020 21:29
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https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1214278172872544256?s=19
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Jan 6, 2020 21:34
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I thought we didn't want Iran to have nukes because they keep threatening to destroy Israel?
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Jan 6, 2020 21:35
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Source4Leko posted:Has a strategic bombing campaign ever caused a population to capitulate other than kinda Japan 1945? No.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:39
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Source4Leko posted:Has a strategic bombing campaign ever caused a population to capitulate other than kinda Japan 1945? Two nukes didn't convince them after years of strategic bombing. There was still members of the military high command who wanted to continue even after Nagasaki.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:42
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Calling it now: Trump is going to override this because it makes him look weak.
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Jan 6, 2020 21:44
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 Dont forget to hate crime volunteers during a national disaster i guess?
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Jan 6, 2020 21:46
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It's amazing how dumb people get elected, then corn cob themselves after being told how dumb they are. https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1214285040290586624?s=19 https://twitter.com/JoePerticone/status/1214289460424257546?s=19
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Jan 6, 2020 22:02
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N
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Jan 6, 2020 22:06
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I remember reading a study from ww2 and you need to destroy something like 65% of houses/apartments before it puts a significant strain on a population during war time as they'll just double up.
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Jan 6, 2020 22:08
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Hell yeah, things are going great. https://twitter.com/TaraCopp/status/1214291881951203328?s=19 We're all Nancy Youssef (WSJ). You don't even need to be told who she is in the picture, you'll know. https://twitter.com/nancyayoussef/status/1214293857619369984?s=19 facialimpediment fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jan 6, 2020 |
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Jan 6, 2020 22:08
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facialimpediment posted:It's amazing how dumb people get elected, then corn cob themselves after being told how dumb they are. This Congressman is the same guy who had a bunch of his siblings make an ad opposing him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr3OUmzRWbQ
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Jan 6, 2020 22:12
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Edit: wrong thread, whoops
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Jan 6, 2020 22:12
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Mr. Lobe posted:Edit: wrong thread, whoops Humanity's epitaph, probably.
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Jan 6, 2020 22:20
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