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NatSec team have left the white house for the night so at least be quiet until morning. Nightfall Iran time is when every bodies rear end in a top hat can tighten up next though.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:16
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God damnit WWIII is starting for the stupidest reasons. I finally realized that if they hit Israel hard enough, half the country will sign up to fight.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:17
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Captain Log posted:What response could they have that would be, “crushing?” Iran has always been known for their extremely bombastic view towards words. We assassinate one of their guys and threaten war crimes based on a 40 yr old hostage situation. Id say bombastic is widely spread here.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:21
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Captain Log posted:God damnit WWIII is starting for the stupidest reasons. I get the feeling that Iran will keep this fight very narrowly focused on the US, right now they have the upper hand in a geopolitical sense as our allies have basically told us we're morons for assassinating this guy and for threatening to attack Iranian cultural sites. None of our allies want any part of that, Iran knows this.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:28
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Smiling Jack posted:The Soviets were absolutely peers when it came to manufacturering war poo poo as compared to the west but they had gaps in ability, starting mostly in the late 70s, mostly around stuff that needed a strong computer / information tech component (CnC milling, for example). The Mig-25 melty engine was solved by the time the Mig-31 rolled out, IIRC. karoshi posted:And then Apollo happened, including microprocessors, surface mount electronics and a myriad other MIC things. The soviets kept using electro-mechanical things to control their spacecraft that I wouldn't be surprised to find in a cheap 1980s wash machine. As it happens, few days ago I followed some links from this thread and ended up on the Wikipedia article History of computing in the Soviet Union. This could give reasons why they were lacking behind. quote:Joseph Stalin considered the computer an evil product of capitalism. The attitude of Soviet officials to computers was skeptical or hostile during the Stalinist era. Government rhetoric portrayed cybernetics in the Soviet Union as a capitalist attempt to further undermine workers' rights. I guess one of the major weaknesses of dictatorship is, that stupid ideas may have significant staying power. It can provide extra boost for good ideas, but generally good ideas manage well enough on their own. Stupid ideas on the other hand will get surpassed by good ideas pretty quickly.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:33
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Some people were suggesting Iran could have milked this without needing to launch an attack back and probably their leadership would have preferred it that way. But it's uncertain to me if the IRCG is sufficiently under control to have stayed at alert and its also entirely possible that the public outrage forced their hands away from what is the most dispassionate cost-benefit min-max analysis.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:36
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That Works posted:We assassinate one of their guys and threaten war crimes based on a 40 yr old hostage situation. Id say bombastic is widely spread here. I am not for a second defending the actions that have brought us to this point. I think it's unbelievably stupid that people are dying over what's been going on. But this isn't the political thread, so I'll just sit back and go 
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Jan 8, 2020 03:46
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here is something to ponder: assuming the f-110 was the missile employed, it is accurate enough to hit a specific part of something like an air base. mainstream media reporting is reporting that parts of the base occupied by Americans were not hit. certainly this could just be a coincidence or remarkably lucky break but there's also a chance that this was a deliberate choice made by the IRGC.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:52
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bewbies posted:here is something to ponder: assuming the f-110 was the missile employed, it is accurate enough to hit a specific part of something like an air base. mainstream media reporting is reporting that parts of the base occupied by Americans were not hit. This is my understanding right now. The Iranians may have deliberately targeted targeted unpopulated areas of the bases in order to appear to have responded without inviting reprisals. I actually kinda think madman theory worked in this case; the Iranians know that killing a bunch of Americans would lead to the destruction of their military and infrastructure.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:58
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Could be intentional, could be luck, could be bad intel, could be pre-emptive measures to mitigate this exact sort of attack given current events. Not much point in making those guesses with the little info available right now.
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Jan 8, 2020 03:58
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I'm kinda wondering if Iran is hoping we are gonna stick our dick into their IADS and they can capture some pilots or whatever; but I don't think we are that dumb. I'm guessing cruise missiles are going to be launched at Iran shortly.
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Jan 8, 2020 04:05
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LibCrusher posted:I actually kinda think madman theory worked in this case Is it really Madman Theory if the man’s not pretending?
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Jan 8, 2020 04:27
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Things just got a little more interesting - let's hope this was an actual accident and 100% unrelated to any other events tonight. https://twitter.com/AP/status/1214754644561399808
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Jan 8, 2020 04:55
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Platystemon posted:Is it really Madman Theory if the man’s not pretending? Madman Praxis.
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Jan 8, 2020 04:57
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Shooting Blanks posted:Things just got a little more interesting - let's hope this was an actual accident and 100% unrelated to any other events tonight. A video was linked in the AI thread. It depicts a large fireball descending and striking the ground. e: I’m not even going to link it. I’ve described where to find it. Platystemon fucked around with this message at 05:12 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 05:02
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Platystemon posted:A video was linked in the AI thread.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:27
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Shooting Blanks posted:Things just got a little more interesting - let's hope this was an actual accident and 100% unrelated to any other events tonight. After seeing the video it was definitely related https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/status/1214756252749877250
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Jan 8, 2020 05:27
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Just looking at Iran's airspace on FlightAware at the moment, they clearly have set up fixed corridors for airline traffic. One heading south to north from Tehran swings right past/above Ishafan, which is where Iran has its F-14s.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:32
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Are Iran's F-14s even in flyable/weapons launchable condition anymore? I know they occasionally get rolled out for flyovers and had some Russian/domestic armaments welded on to the pylons for a photo op because the American missiles were so old they were likely unusable some time ago but I don't know of any credible source that indicates they can actually do anything. Sounds like an oopsie either by Iran or someone else though. Whacking a civ jet departing Tehran doesn't make sense for anybody.
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Jan 8, 2020 05:37
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Assuming their radars are still working, they're pretty good awacs stand ins.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:01
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Not landing and taking off of carriers takes a tremendous amount of stress off of an airframe over its use
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Jan 8, 2020 06:14
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Stravag posted:Not landing and taking off of carriers takes a tremendous amount of stress off of an airframe over its use This issue with the Iranian F-14s isn't airframe stress (which, if I'm correct in what you're referring to, is a real issue for older US airframes) - it's lack of spare parts. Every mechanical part known to man has an MBTF (mean time between failure), and the F-14 is a notoriously complex, fickle, and expensive aircraft to operate. When the Shah was overthrown and they took hostages at the US embassy, their spare part supply was utterly cut off. Some things can be manufactured domestically by Iran, but plenty of things can't - best guess is that they've been cannibalizing some of the planes to keep as many operating as possible as a propaganda piece. Munitions are a whole separate issue, as was pointed out, those things aren't exactly interchangeable. Are the F-14s in flying condition? Sure, some of them. Are they in any way, shape or form combat-ready? Almost certainly not.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:19
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The question was if they can get airborne and release missiles, and I have no doubt that they can. They’re not going to be winning many dogfights, but that would be true of an F‐14 in perfect condition.
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Jan 8, 2020 06:21
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Shooting Blanks posted:This issue with the Iranian F-14s isn't airframe stress (which, if I'm correct in what you're referring to, is a real issue for older US airframes) - it's lack of spare parts. Every mechanical part known to man has an MBTF (mean time between failure), and the F-14 is a notoriously complex, fickle, and expensive aircraft to operate. When the Shah was overthrown and they took hostages at the US embassy, their spare part supply was utterly cut off. Some things can be manufactured domestically by Iran, but plenty of things can't - best guess is that they've been cannibalizing some of the planes to keep as many operating as possible as a propaganda piece. Oh im not saying theyre having a high readiness rate, but with custom fab of spares you could keep them flying because you dont have the frame cracking as long as theyre a priority and they seem to be
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Jan 8, 2020 06:33
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Smiling Jack posted:Not sure if it was this thread or somewhere else, but the us military trucks, notably the HEMTT, are really impressive. I'm curious, what makes them impressive?
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Jan 8, 2020 06:35
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Cyrano4747 posted:There's a few things. You say about people having a lot that they can choose to catch up on but isn't that the point? I understand getting lurkers to post more, but really nothing's stopping them and it's already a very active thread. It's good having it all in one place. And if it ain't broke.. Joke conspiracy: this is just a lowtax spinal fund ploy to get people to buy archives, isn't it? simplefish fucked around with this message at 07:57 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 07:55
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Sperglord posted:I'm curious, what makes them impressive? I saw a HEMTT at Aberdeen Proving Grounds go through a course that would have snapped a regular truck in half, if it even managed to make it that far. Not sure how that holds up in actual field use, but the demonstration was pretty loving 
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Jan 8, 2020 08:00
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Page 1983 coming up, there better be some quality Able Archer/Andropov Deathwatch/RYaN chat to go with it.
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Jan 8, 2020 12:28
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simplefish posted:I dunno. If this moved to a new thread I'd probably stop reading/posting. You would genuinely stop reading good content because you have to bookmark a different link?
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Jan 8, 2020 12:55
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https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1214895207021502464?s=21 Iranian missile tech is good enough to pretty accurately target a static base. And if the above assessment is accurate, would not be the first flashy event that was against US stuff and efforts vs US lives.
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Jan 8, 2020 14:08
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Page 1982: The NYT from the morning I was born is pretty loving Cold War.
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Jan 8, 2020 14:13
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LRADIKAL posted:Assuming their radars are still working, they're pretty good awacs stand ins. They weren't reliable when they were sold to them, it'd be an absolute miracle if they kept them working. That said, it shouldn't be too hard to retrofit a more modern radar in to one. All of the components now would be smaller and lighter weight except maybe the cabling/cooling systems. CarForumPoster fucked around with this message at 14:43 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 14:32
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I have Like, LO planes aren't invisible, right? They just have very small radar cross-sections that radars filter out because you don't plan on tracking bugs and swallows. But can't you make them not to filter out bugs and swallows that move at certain speed/altitudes? Or am I misunderstanding how radar works in some fundamental way? It has to be that, I'm sure.
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Jan 8, 2020 14:34
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Sure, but which bug do you shoot at? E: Well my dumb rear end misread the question, in my defense I'm power-reloading Trump's Twitter to see if we are going to war again so I'm primed for stupidity. This is my shame, I'm not editing it out. goatsestretchgoals fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 14:43
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JcDent posted:I have Most radar specs will include a constant false alarm rate or CFAR. The obvious method of meeting this requirement is to attenuate your signal returns until you fall below the threshold. A potential way to do this is described here. This is why you may not see a plane with a smaller radar return and the way "STC" works (i.e. by attenuating signals at a certain range gate and angle) is why you might see one "pop up" on your radar. This is why jamming works. CarForumPoster fucked around with this message at 14:50 on Jan 8, 2020 |
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Jan 8, 2020 14:45
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Joanna Piacenza (@jpiacenza) Tweeted: Respondents were first given a larger, global map. 23% were able to correctly identify Iran. https://t.co/XhP5OU9s2n https://t.co/HVsWpf9ujt https://twitter.com/jpiacenza/status/1214897511414013954?s=20
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Jan 8, 2020 14:47
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CarForumPoster posted:They weren't reliable when they were sold to them, it'd be an absolute miracle if they kept them working. That said, it shouldn't be too hard to retrofit a more modern radar in to one. All of the components now would be smaller and lighter weight except maybe the cabling/cooling systems. Well, first of all you aren't going to get a RADAR with as much power or antenna realestate as an AWACS platform into the F-14. Can't exactly fly racetrack patterns behind everything while maintaining coverage with a forward looking RADAR, either. More importantly you aren't going to fit the crew who makes use of the data the RADAR is collecting into the F-14. If it's all you've got it's better than nothing, but I wouldn't consider it an AWACS alternative.
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Jan 8, 2020 14:50
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CarForumPoster posted:Most radar specs will include a constant false alarm rate or CFAR. The obvious method of meeting this requirement is to attenuate your signal returns until you fall below the threshold. A potential way to do this is described here. To follow up on this, how does radar jamming work? I remember in some Clancy book him talking about pilots having to 'burn through' their opponent's jamming. Is that a real thing and how does it work or is it just technobabble?
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Jan 8, 2020 14:52
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:To follow up on this, how does radar jamming work? I remember in some Clancy book him talking about pilots having to 'burn through' their opponent's jamming. Is that a real thing and how does it work or is it just technobabble? This video has good explanations and is thread relevant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyFqaaqqph0
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Jan 8, 2020 14:54
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Kaiser Schnitzel posted:To follow up on this, how does radar jamming work? I remember in some Clancy book him talking about pilots having to 'burn through' their opponent's jamming. Is that a real thing and how does it work or is it just technobabble? There are two basic types of jamming: noise -- which means you just throw a whole lot of EM energy that is hopefully on the same frequencies as the radar you're trying to jam, which makes it harder to tell what are the radar's returns and what are not -- and repeater, which means you detect the radar's signal and then manipulate it to confuse the radar. Modern DRFM jammers can do all kinds of crazy crap both to confuse radars and conceal the fact the radar is being jammed. Burnthrough is definitely a thing. Noise jamming is only effective as long as the radar can't detect its own returns, which in turn is a function of range and power and signal processing quality. So, at a certain range or power level, you "burn through" the noise, and your radar works again.
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Jan 8, 2020 15:06
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