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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Her net favorability jumped 3.8% and Bernie's dropped 3.9%. Looks like CNN got what they wanted: the continuation of the horse race.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:06
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Her net favorability jumped 3.8% and Bernie's dropped 3.9%. Isn't this all within the MOE?
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Jan 15, 2020 21:08
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Literally every candidate increased the number of people considering voting for them, with bigger jumps accruing to people who were really low on that scale. Once again proving that there is truly no bad publicity. If you're on the stage and saying words, congrats, your electability has increased.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:09
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kidkissinger posted:Isn't this all within the MOE? MoE for the after debate responses is 2.6%. Worth noting for the after-debate sample they interviewed over 1,700 people but less than 700 had actually seen any of the debate.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:12
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I was in Las Vegas recently and the dealer told me something that applies really well to this situation. In blackjack, Never hit on 21! Let me tell you Donald Trump put all of Americans on the table as poker chips and hit on 21. Well they have a saying for that in Las Vegas: you’re busted buddy!
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Jan 15, 2020 21:13
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Are we going to have to wait for a long time for fundraising numbers? I’d be curious to see how badly the refund requests are hurting Warren. But I think it’s quarterly that they actually release the numbers so we probably won’t know until after the primary is already decided. This does seem to be one of the biggest backfires I’ve seen this primary. Even with Warren getting the full support of CNN in coordinating it still fell flat. Goddamn our media is such complete trash.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:14
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RasperFat posted:Are we going to have to wait for a long time for fundraising numbers? Supposedly it jumps to monthly in an election year
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Jan 15, 2020 21:17
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DeeplyConcerned posted:I was in Las Vegas recently and the dealer told me something that applies really well to this situation. In blackjack, Never hit on 21! Let me tell you Donald Trump put all of Americans on the table as poker chips and hit on 21. Well they have a saying for that in Las Vegas: you’re busted buddy! I really like Klobmentum's point that they already have a bunch of senators that support a lovely bill so they need to go with that one. Strong argument to bypass the senate.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:17
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Condiv posted:Supposedly it jumps to monthly in an election year Yup next reporting period ends on the 31st and they have to file their numbers by Feb 20th.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:22
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:Her net favorability jumped 3.8% and Bernie's dropped 3.9%. First, that is not what they are basing their "who won" part on, but instead on the average performance rating, where Warren got 3.3 and Bernie 3.1. Second, the margin of error is not for composites like "net favorability." His pre-debate favorability favorables was 70.6% with a margin of error of 1.9, and hi post debate favorability was 69.7% with a margin of error of 2.6. His pre debate unfavorable was 22.8% with a margin of error of 1.9 and after it was 25.5% with a margin of error of 2.6. In other words, depending on how rounding was done, only the change in unfavorables may or may not have been statistically significant, but there was no statistically significant reduction in favorability. The pre-debate v post-debate comparison of the "chances against Trump" only has Klobuchar changing anything outside the margin of error. Finally, there's this gem hidden in the description of the poll: quote:The second wave of the poll began after the debate ended and collected data from Jan. 14 to 15 among 1,743 likely Democratic primary voters who had previously responded to the first wave; it has a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Of those respondents, 659 watched some of all of the debate. So a around two thirds of the post debate respondents did not even watch part of the debates. Wicked Them Beats posted:MoE for the after debate responses is 2.6%. Worth noting for the after-debate sample they interviewed over 1,700 people but less than 700 had actually seen any of the debate. But the MoE applies to each measure separately. As such, the margin of error of the difference between poll 1 and poll 2 is by definition larger than the margin or error for the estimate of a single poll. https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf Margin of error of 2.6 only applies to the favorability rating for wave 2. If you are trying to compare the difference between wave 1 and wave 2, the margin of error increases by about 1.41 times. And if you are trying to compare net favorability between survey 1 and survey 2, it's even larger than that, because the margin of error for net favorability within each wave is 2x the margin or error for that wave, and the margin of error for the difference in net favorability is going to be 1.41 times the composite margin of error for both waves. joepinetree fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Jan 15, 2020 |
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Jan 15, 2020 21:22
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Roluth posted:Looks like CNN got what they wanted: the continuation of the horse race. Not just a continuation of the horse race: the division of the leftists. They are desperate for another neoliberal status quo shill like Biden or Buttigieg to win the nomination because god forbid the rich fucks that run our mass media pay more in taxes. The DNC is again shooting itself in the foot. They'd rather Donald Trump win a second term than see a leftist get the nomination. It's despicable.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:23
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Vox Nihili posted:The whole "Yeah, I guess I have some Native American blood! Pretty cool, huh!" thing is super common among middle class white people. Nothing particularly wrong with that, though it does demonstrate a general misunderstanding of what it means to claim tribal heritage. Well, the familial relation part is kind of there, in that her parents (allegedly) eloped because one set of grandparents thought the other side had tainted blood. The thing is, I'd think anyone from Oklahoma, and anyone generally who bothered to look into it, would know that that's not the same thing as being a tribal member and doesn't mean you have poo poo to do with the tribe or get to start throwing around comments about your native heritage. That's what makes it appropriation-y to me. Like, even pre-internet, I can't see how you wind up contributing to five tribes themed cookbooks as Cherokee without knowing what the Dawes Rolls are unless you're leaning pretty hard into the exoticising thing and don't actually care about the actual Cherokee. (Also she should've known that the story could be bullshit, it could be relating real events but the prejudice was based on bullshit, it could've been mixed up with other prejudice and someone was lying about having a black person in the family tree because racists love their hierarchies, etc)
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Jan 15, 2020 21:24
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Condiv posted:Supposedly it jumps to monthly in an election year Wicked Them Beats posted:Yup next reporting period ends on the 31st and they have to file their numbers by Feb 20th. So we don’t have to wait quite as long as expected, but it’s still going to be over a month probably. I donated another  to Bernie. I hope he breaks more donation records today again.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:35
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So, uh...this seems like something Bernie should be talking about : https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1217277651422978059 Admittedly it's coming from Ari Fleischer, but boy does it sound like something Biden would say.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:43
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eviltastic posted:Well, the familial relation part is kind of there, in that her parents (allegedly) eloped because one set of grandparents thought the other side had tainted blood. The thing is, I'd think anyone from Oklahoma, and anyone generally who bothered to look into it, would know that that's not the same thing as being a tribal member and doesn't mean you have poo poo to do with the tribe or get to start throwing around comments about your native heritage. That's what makes it appropriation-y to me. Like, even pre-internet, I can't see how you wind up contributing to five tribes themed cookbooks as Cherokee without knowing what the Dawes Rolls are unless you're leaning pretty hard into the exoticising thing and don't actually care about the actual Cherokee. A reminder that at least one of the recipes was plagiarized. I really, really don't get how people keep consistently giving Warren the benefit of the doubt on this. When asked to provide a recipe of the ancestry she claimed, she went and plagiarized something. How does this not at any point trigger "am i full of poo poo? should i be doing this?"
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Jan 15, 2020 21:44
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joepinetree posted:First, that is not what they are basing their "who won" part on, but instead on the average performance rating, where Warren got 3.3 and Bernie 3.1. Thanks for the effortpost, this is really informative
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Jan 15, 2020 21:46
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Majorian posted:So, uh...this seems like something Bernie should be talking about : its also from dick armey and michael isikoff
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Jan 15, 2020 21:48
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Majorian posted:So, uh...this seems like something Bernie should be talking about : The Nobel Peace Prize, which we give out for starting major wars
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Jan 15, 2020 21:55
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RasperFat posted:I’d be curious to see how badly the refund requests are hurting Warren. But I think it’s quarterly that they actually release the numbers so we probably won’t know until after the primary is already decided.
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Jan 15, 2020 21:56
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OctaMurk posted:The Nobel Peace Prize, which we give out for starting major wars 
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Jan 15, 2020 21:57
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OctaMurk posted:The Nobel Peace Prize, which we give out for starting major wars
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Jan 15, 2020 21:58
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Warren really went from people like mcmagic calling anyone who wouldn't vote for her a thumbtack to having no one defend her on the forums. That is wild.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:00
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Judakel posted:Warren really went from people like mcmagic calling anyone who wouldn't vote for her a thumbtack to having no one defend her on the forums. That is wild.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:02
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I am extremely curious to see how the Warren/Sanders spat plays with the wing of the party that pilloried Gillibrand for calling for Franken to resign.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:15
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kidkissinger posted:She has clearly alienated the people who actually follow these things closely- the overly online crowd. It may take a bit for those bad vibes to ripple out to the normies but they absolutely will. I don't think it matters. If he doesn't win Iowa, Trump wins re-election.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:16
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joepinetree posted:A reminder that at least one of the recipes was plagiarized. I really, really don't get how people keep consistently giving Warren the benefit of the doubt on this. When asked to provide a recipe of the ancestry she claimed, she went and plagiarized something. How does this not at any point trigger "am i full of poo poo? should i be doing this?" My recollection was the word-for-word verbatim plagiarism charge was a Breitbart characterization of a pretty similar recipe that wasn't word for word. I don't really care to jump in on that, because either way it's gross. The implicit suggestion is that it's Cherokee by dint of association with her, a supposed Cherokee tribal member, not because it's a Cherokee recipe.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:17
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Raskolnikov38 posted:its also from dick armey and michael isikoff OctaMurk posted:The Nobel Peace Prize, which we give out for starting major wars I think Bernie should run with it. Who cares if it's from not the most reliable sources; it's believable and this is an election. It's certainly more believable than Bernie saying "WOMEN CAN'T BE PRESIDENT, FULL STOP!!!"
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Jan 15, 2020 22:26
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Just watched a Majority Report segment with clips of Bernie saying "a woman could be elected president" in the late 1980s. If you're gonna make up something that someone said, maybe like, check if it's something where they have a history of saying the opposite for over 30 years?!?!
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Jan 15, 2020 22:34
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Hellblazer187 posted:Just watched a Majority Report segment with clips of Bernie saying "a woman could be elected president" in the late 1980s. Especially when you were a Republican at the time!
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Jan 15, 2020 22:36
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I think Warren is trying to say that Sanders said "a woman can't beat Trump in 2020" Sanders probably actually said "might be tougher for a woman to win because Trump isn't afraid to make misogynist attacks and America can be pretty sexist" The way CNN & the Warren campaign framed the argument makes them the liars here, but what was actually said probably lies somewhere in-between.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:37
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Hellblazer187 posted:Just watched a Majority Report segment with clips of Bernie saying "a woman could be elected president" in the late 1980s. Sam Seder is such a Warren apologist.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:38
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Judakel posted:Sam Seder is such a Warren apologist. He likes Warren but he's for Bernie, and he called this "stupid" like 100 times in the segment.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:45
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joepinetree posted:First, that is not what they are basing their "who won" part on, but instead on the average performance rating, where Warren got 3.3 and Bernie 3.1. Interesting. So, the only thing that's significantly changed on Bernie's side is his unfavorables? Hm. Doesn't look like the attack worked on people who already support him, but hurts his growth regardless. Not the worst result, I guess.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:46
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Hellblazer187 posted:He likes Warren but he's for Bernie, and he called this "stupid" like 100 times in the segment. If you like Warren after this, I'd call you an apologist.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:48
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Hellblazer187 posted:Just watched a Majority Report segment with clips of Bernie saying "a woman could be elected president" in the late 1980s. Because it sets up a debate slam and fawning CNN coverage. 80% of those viewers are never going to see any of the follow-up stuff.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:50
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Hellblazer187 posted:Just watched a Majority Report segment with clips of Bernie saying "a woman could be elected president" in the late 1980s. it's not about the truth of what Bernie really thinks. the Warren libs who latched onto this already thought he was sexist because of the stupid "Bernie bro" myth from 2016. it's about them finding ways to dislike Bernie without saying what they really believe i.e. "gently caress you got mine" and "MY taxes will go up?" and "not in my backyard!"
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Jan 15, 2020 22:53
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I took my boomer dad to the doctor this morning and brought up the whole Sanders/Warren thing. Now keep in mind up until now he has told me he doesn’t think Sanders can win, so it’s not like he was some huge Bernie fan. When I brought it up he was like “this is ridiculous, she’s done.” He didn’t watch the debate last night but he did watch like CNN or MSNBC this morning.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:55
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Turns out Warren is the unity candidate, just not at all how she imagined.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:55
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Well hey there we go. Just got receipt confirming they'll refund me back my contributions. The weird thing is that the wording is slightly different. Actblue is saying that they're returning the money in accordance with the Warren's campaign wishes.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:55
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Not in particular a Bernie fan but I find CNN's attempt at ratfucking galling and I think there's zero doubt this backfires hard on them. I don't particularly have a problem with the Warren camp leaking things to try to shift the narrative but the incompetence is inexcusable.
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Jan 15, 2020 22:56
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