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Oscar Wild posted:Numbers go up. Inflows of cash. What are you going to do, hold cash or bonds? Where are you getting any yield? This is the argument that has been made forever now (and it’s probably correct) but it’s literally a slight rewording of the greater fool theory Solice Kirsk posted:Held SOLY for a month and got out today with a slick ~10% gain. And because I did that watch it explode to the moon tomorrow... You done hosed up, goon greasyhands fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Jan 16, 2020 |
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Jan 16, 2020 23:00
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Apple is currently #1 shorted stocks now, sources say
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Jan 16, 2020 23:22
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That has to be $ value, which is no big deal really
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Jan 16, 2020 23:29
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John F Bennett posted:No one knows this. But a lot analysts and experts and whathaveyou are getting louder with their warnings about a big correction. All other asset classes are also pretty over-valued, too. There's just too much capital in the world.
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Jan 16, 2020 23:33
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Yep battle between appl and tesla! Both up 100% this year! I am still down 6% on my position
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Jan 16, 2020 23:36
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Man Musk posted:I picked a bad month to begin building a position on SPY welp
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Jan 16, 2020 23:42
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Solice Kirsk posted:Held SOLY for a month and got out today with a slick ~10% gain. And because I did that watch it explode to the moon tomorrow... Thanks for taking a hit for the team.
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Jan 16, 2020 23:43
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tangy yet delightful posted:Thanks for taking a hit for the team.  All I ask is that you guys remember me when you're flying around in your fleet of blimps.
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Jan 16, 2020 23:53
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greasyhands posted:This is the argument that has been made forever now (and it’s probably correct) but it’s literally a slight rewording of the greater fool theory I agree, but I'm also not going to stand in front of a train. A person can argue about rational valuations and stay in cash or follow the momentum until it stops. Then a person may get burned but hopefully they have stops in place. It's really weird, and uncomfortable thinking that a massive correction could happen just to get to historically reasonable valuations. The Fed could cool it off by raising rates but without inflation, I just dont see it. The market is drunk and the punch bowl is bottomless.
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Jan 17, 2020 00:23
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Josh Lyman posted:We’re up 2.8% in 2 weeks. That seems really good? it's really really good, but would rather be averaging down not up 😨 can't imagine the next opportunity it will get cheaper outside of a human-made geopolitical event, though, maybe need a different boring index
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Jan 17, 2020 08:20
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MSFT was up 60% in 2019 wtf how did that happen? Is it purely due to Azure?
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Jan 17, 2020 13:02
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:I have 1000 $220 Jan 17 QQQ calls average $.056 and 50 $300 Dec 31 SPY puts average $1.36 going into the Fed/trade deal/liquidity crisis and tbh I feel like there’s no way this could go tits up Tokyo Sex Whale posted:I am trying to cash out now and I am moving the market and can’t do it Anyway I made $12000 on this net the Friday before Christmas and today I want to kill myself
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Jan 17, 2020 15:24
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Solice Kirsk posted:Held SOLY for a month and got out today with a slick ~10% gain. And because I did that watch it explode to the moon tomorrow... Don’t look.... it’s better if you don’t look...
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Jan 17, 2020 16:42
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Anyway I made $12000 on this net the Friday before Christmas and today I want to kill myself
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Jan 17, 2020 16:45
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I wish I had bought more of these Feb 21 $95c on SBUX. Also, here we go SOLY.
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Jan 17, 2020 16:51
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This market is simply absurd.
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Jan 17, 2020 16:52
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I sold my SOLY last week bc it hadn’t done anything for months.
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Jan 17, 2020 18:05
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Josh Lyman posted:I sold my SOLY last week bc it hadn’t done anything for months. I'm afraid to do a stop because it's so thinly traded.
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Jan 17, 2020 18:14
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Like I’ve said from the beginning, SOLY is the kind of thing that goes all at once. You have to have patience, today is nothing relative to what this thing can do.
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Jan 17, 2020 18:37
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How does one estimate an upper bound on something like SOLY, or any similar company in this phase of their lifecycle?
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Jan 17, 2020 18:50
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MetaJew posted:How does one estimate an upper bound on something like SOLY, or any similar company in this phase of their lifecycle? The upper bound on companies like this is always The Moon
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Jan 17, 2020 18:56
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MetaJew posted:How does one estimate an upper bound on something like SOLY, or any similar company in this phase of their lifecycle? Look at what the product does, look at the current addressable market... estimate future addressable market. Think tattoo removal might be a big industry going forward? Looking around at 20-somethings and their full sleeve tattoos, I sure do. It apparently works on scars and cellulite too... coolsculpt sold for $2bil to allergen and some of the same people are involved in this. *if* this starts to pan out, it would almost certainly be sold. I’d say pie in the sky valuation might be $3bil, but if it sold for $750mil early on I’d be super happy greasyhands fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Jan 17, 2020 |
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Jan 17, 2020 19:00
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Sorry, I didn't know I was on Wallstreetbets. So what you're saying is there is still room to buy more SOLY and hope people actually want to remove their tattoos. (My DD is following Suicide Girls on IG and none of them are getting tattoos removed.) With my DD in mind, if a company comes out with a plastic surgery device to quickly repair gauged ear piercings, I can see that mooning.
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Jan 17, 2020 19:02
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MetaJew posted:Sorry, I didn't know I was on Wallstreetbets. Are suicide girls still a thing? Anyways, yes there’s lots of room to buy
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Jan 17, 2020 19:05
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Every company can potentially sell to the entire world, so upper bounding speculative stocks is real dumb, especially when simply identifying a market to do so. Check for the capability to deliver based on past performance, and (most important) with speculative stocks-- have an exit strategy.
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Jan 17, 2020 19:08
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I mean it's not that big of a stretch to say that the number of people getting their tattoos removed would increase as the number of people who get tattoos increases.
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Jan 17, 2020 19:25
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UnfurledSails posted:I mean it's not that big of a stretch to say that the number of people getting their tattoos removed would increase as the number of people who get tattoos increases. And if, say, someone developed a method that didn’t take 10 visits over a year or more.... edit: buying some jan24 AMD 49 puts at .28 greasyhands fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jan 17, 2020 |
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Jan 17, 2020 19:26
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jokes posted:Every company can potentially sell to the entire world, so upper bounding speculative stocks is real dumb, especially when simply identifying a market to do so. Check for the capability to deliver based on past performance, and (most important) with speculative stocks-- have an exit strategy. This is not really true... a tattoo removal company isn’t going to sell services to people without tattoos... so it’s entirely possible to estimate what could be the market if you assume 10% share... 20% etc. obviously it’s highly variable, but acting like it’s impossible is silly greasyhands fucked around with this message at 01:16 on Jan 18, 2020 |
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Jan 18, 2020 01:08
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Those types of estimates are always 100% bullshit, but this type of extremely simplistic thinking is how the stock market works. So just go with your gut estimate, there's no need for any type of accuracy to make successful investment decisions.
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Jan 18, 2020 01:55
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Lambert posted:Those types of estimates are always 100% bullshit, but this type of extremely simplistic thinking is how the stock market works. So just go with your gut estimate, there's no need for any type of accuracy to make successful investment decisions. They absolutely are not 100% bullshit, they’re frequently wrong but that’s part of most models. This is a verifiable thing, just because you want it to be true doesn’t mean it is
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Jan 18, 2020 01:58
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It's obviously bullshit, but doesn't mean you can't base investment decision on it.
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Jan 18, 2020 02:05
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greasyhands posted:Don’t look.... it’s better if you don’t look...  But hey! At least I'm in cash! Honestly only had about $1000 invested in SOLY, so I'm not too upset...still....
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Jan 18, 2020 02:58
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greasyhands posted:How is this market even possible? Just relentlessly up, valuations are super stretched and earnings are stagnant at best
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Jan 18, 2020 04:38
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I feel like as long as the Fed keeps increasing the money supply, valuations are going to go up and it's just not going to make sense.
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Jan 18, 2020 04:47
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bollig posted:I feel like as long as the Fed keeps increasing the money supply, valuations are going to go up and it's just not going to make sense. Not to mention corresponding fiscal policy accommodative to capital appreciation.
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Jan 18, 2020 05:15
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Another take: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/01/18/in-the-stock-market-its-become-apple-microsoft-and-alphabet-vs-everyone-else.html
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Jan 18, 2020 16:36
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This market is relentlessly up *ignores entirety of 2018 and most of 2019*
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Jan 18, 2020 19:55
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Returns over the last five years are almost exactly the historical average of 10% FEEEEDDDD!!!
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Jan 18, 2020 19:59
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paternity suitor posted:This market is relentlessly up *ignores entirety of 2018 and most of 2019* *ignores every single indicator such as PEG, simple P/E l, EV/EBITDA, P/S, stagnant earnings growth but skyrocketing market, CAPE ratio higher than its been at any time except the 2 biggest bubbles in history (and 2009 isn’t even in the calculation anymore), fed driven liquidity, the simple fact that this is the longest bull market in history by quite a margin in a moderate, at best, growth economy.* “but average historical returns, it’s all very normal*smug*” greasyhands fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Jan 18, 2020 |
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Jan 18, 2020 20:30
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It turns out if you slash corporate tax rates, valuations will go up in the absence of any change in profitability.
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Jan 19, 2020 16:41
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