Crusader posted:

director of a john hopkins center for health security


https://twitter.com/t_inglesby/status/1221434570714669056

quote:

Containment of nCoV is, and should be, the highest priority in China. This requires gov, health care/PH system & the public to work together to ID those w/ sx, get them tested rapidly, get them isolated (home or hospital), provide good med care while keeping HCWs protected.

The global community should be doing all it can to be helping China w/ the terrible set of challenges it is facing in its effort to contain nCoV. It is not only the right thing to do for China, but it is critical in trying to help prevent global spread.

We don’t know what overall CFR will be w/ nCoV-that requires more data, time. SARS-like illness has been seen in some, but we don’t know what % of nCoV pts will get severe disease. We all hope it'll be far less than SARS, but we don’t know enough to predict %.

We also don’t have enough data on H2H transmission yet to make confident predictions about how it will spread. We don’t know enough about extent of asymptomatic cases, asymptomatic spread, proportion of spread happening in health care facilities vs community.

But given uncertainties + very high stakes, part of global & national planning efforts should now be aimed at possibility that nCoV containment could fail.

Others have raised this possibility too, including @neil_ferguson at Imperial who has said in last 24 hrs that containment of nCoV might not succeed.

Global and national leaders should be looking ahead to what must be done to prepare for the possibility nCoV can’t be contained, even as we continue to work as hard as possible to contain it in China and beyond.

The work to prepare for the possibility of failed containment could be called something like: Plan for Global Mobilization to Respond to a nCoV Pandemic. There are a series of highest priorities that should be at the top of that Plan, including:

• Crash vaccine development. Top of list because would so dramatically change response and outcomes. & working on vaccines, as are others. All pharma+biotech companies that could have a vaccine or therapy candidate of relevance should be enlisted in the effort.
  
• Multiple vaccine efforts should be pursued in parallel. Money should not be rate-limiting. Timelines should be shortened in whatever ways possible that doesn’t get in the way of a final safe, effective product. Rapid clinical trials prepared.
  
• Global plan for mass manufacturing of vaccine when it is created. This should be planned for multiple places in the world concomitantly. Cannot have a successful vaccine come out of only one place and remain only in that country. It will need to be broadly distributed.
  
• Plan for WHO global stockpile w/ global allocation plan. Once vaccine developed, WHO will need to allocate vaccine quickly to countries around world. WHO can work w/ UN system to help distribute, but will also need partnerships w/ global logistics companies to succeed.
  
• Urgent serology development programs. Need this to help determine severity of nCoV. If many have been exposed and are immune, but never had disease, this suggests asymptomatic spread and that disease will be mild in many. We need serology testing.
  
• Massive expansion of diagnostics development capacity in China and around world. We need diagnostics to isolate and triage and care for people, and if containment fails will need very high numbers of reliable diagnostic tests around the world in the months ahead.
  
• Rapid clinical trials for antivirals. There isn't much evidence current antivirals will be useful, but there should be in vitro studies, clinical trials to study all reasonable candidates. Other med interventions that have sound theoretical basis should be studied quickly.
  
• Major expansion of personal protective equipment for health care workers. We have seen in SARS that much of the spread of disease is through hospitals. We will need to make sure health care workers have needed equipment to protect themselves.
  
• Hospital infection control plans. Beyond protecting health care workers, hospitals will need administrative plans, equipment, engineering controls where relevant, to care for higher number of patients at same time they are working to prevent resp spread of disease.
  
• Government plans to provide transparent, full, rapid communication. People need to trust that governments giving them the full story so that they will agree to get tested, isolated and treated.
  
• Good accurate info needs to flood out the bad, the harmful rumors, the conspiracy info. Govs may need to partner w traditional and social media to get factual info out to people.
  

Plans to keep travel & trade moving in the world, even if we do have disease spread around the world. nCoV airport screening efforts make sense now as a way of early ID of pts. But if containment fails and disease is widespread in world in time ahead, new plans are needed.

If nCoV spreads widely in the world, it will be in strong interest of all countries, to keep trade going despite the pandemic– global economy is highly interdependent. Govs would need to work w/ orgs like WTO and travel industry orgs like IATA to keep goods, people moving.

quote:

Ma said that unlike Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) the new coronavirus was infectious during its incubation period.

kopasetic posted:

seriously though, the fact that 30% of hospitalized patients develop ARDS, which almost invariably requires mechanical ventilation to survive, is pretty alarming just from a logistics standpoint. there aren’t going to be enough ventilators for everyone if this gets rolling.

CODChimera posted:

how would it escape

SKULL.GIF posted:

you're really asking me how a virus that's asymptomatic for 14 days, infectious while incubating, and survives for 24 hours on objects, how something like that could accidentally get out into the wild?

twoday posted:

Whenever there is any kind of chaotic/harmful event, a sizable percentage of people will begin to come up with conspiracy theories because it is difficult to comprehend the entropic nature of reality and our brains find it more comforting to imagine a malign order which controls everything around us rather than accept that we live in uncontrolled chaos. In the days of the Black Death of course everyone assumed God was doing it, and now we blame governments, but the principle is the same

orange sky posted:

Also, regarding it being a manufactured virus: it would explain China's response to it, which given the number of infected+casualties at the time seemed kind of overblown. If they know it's truly hosed up, it's worth closing cities with multiple million people

And the first case didn't have contact with the Wuhan market so there's that

Just putting the tinfoil hat on over here, Alex Jones is gonna go crazy with this one

SpaceCadetBob posted:

lol at my well to do USA suburbia Target and there are like 5 racks empty where the medical masks are supposed to be.

Centrist Committee posted:

Mrs. Dash posted:

FWIW its flu season in the US and masks sell out routinely during regular old flu seasons

CODChimera posted:

how would it escape

pancake rabbit posted:

lmao i was in nyc the week before last for work and i have been sick and miserable this whole weekend with a fever and cough

awesome, owns

Kazak posted:

Rubbed my dick really fast this morning and milky white fluid shot out after an unhealthy amount of time.

awesome, owns

Kazak posted:

Rubbed my dick really fast this morning and milky white fluid shot out after an unhealthy amount of time.

awesome, owns

Kazak posted:

Rubbed my dick really fast this morning and milky white fluid shot out after an unhealthy amount of time.

awesome, owns

Crusader posted:

https://twitter.com/carlyweeks/status/1221461093333245955

vyelkin posted:

lmao dumbass people who think they're the exception and get on the plane/train/bus/automobile anyway even though they're coughing and sneezing everywhere are going to kill us all

quote:

5 million residents left Wuhan before lockdown, mayor reveals, as 1,000 new confirmed cases expected in city

About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger.

There were about 9 million people remaining in the city after the lockdown, Zhou told a press conference.

Of the 2,700 people currently under observation in the city, about 1,000 were likely to be confirmed cases. As of Sunday, Wuhan had 533 confirmed cases.

vyelkin posted:

lmao dumbass people who think they're the exception and get on the plane/train/bus/automobile anyway even though they're coughing and sneezing everywhere are going to kill us all

Venom Snake posted:

you wouldn't create a bio-weapon without a clear weakness to ensure it couldn't be used against you effectively. nah this is all nature cooking something up in the wild-life markets, glad the CCP has straight up just banned them all lol

SKULL.GIF posted:

lol

Lawman 0 posted:

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1221432159078141952?s=20

twoday posted:

Oh wait this was real?

I thought it was just someone retweeting protest footage and falsely tying it to the virus

https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/status/1221432283032440834?s=20

quote:

Here ia an update from AFP:

Dozens of local residents and protesters opposed to the idea held rallies outside the complex on Sunday, with some setting up road blocks.

In the evening, police said assailants threw petrol bombs at the buildings.

An AFP photographer on the scene saw fierce flames coming from the entrance of two apartment blocks before firefighters got the blaze under control.

Riot police were on scene and protesters had left, although some local residents were arguing with officers who used pepper spray.

The Centre for Health Protection said the plan to turn the housing estate into a quarantine zone would be suspended.

The agency has already turned a holiday park in an isolated rural area into a working quarantine facility. Two other holiday parks located away from major housing estates are also ready to be used as similar facilities.

But officials say they have struggled to find hotels and spare rooms for doctors and nurses working on the isolation wards where patients are being treated.

The virus outbreak comes at a time when Hong Kong is already boiling with widespread anti-government sentiment after seven months of often violent pro-democracy protests.

SKULL.GIF posted:

• Airborne
  
• Object-persistent for 24 hours
  
• 14 day incubation period
  
• Infectious during incubation
  
• Early symptoms are mild and extremely easily mistaken for a weak cold or flu
  

All this is missing is one single mutation to make it deadly, like encephalitis or something idk lmao

I'm actually sincerely starting to wonder, in a non-joking way unlike last night, whether this is actually an escaped bioweapon. How do you make something more perfect than this? All you'd need to do is just release this and let nature do the rest of the work to mutate it, and, uhh...