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Yates posted:Why are you so sure Wisconsin will be red? Trump barely won against a candidate who didn't even show up in the state and Democrats won every statewide election in 2018. It sure could be red again but it sure doesn't seem like a sure thing. We have actual results to look at. Democrats carried Pennsylvania convincingly in 2018, but Tony Evers only beat Walker by 1%. Then in 2019, Democrats narrowly lost a Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Democrats generic ballot lead is no better than it was then. Polling also shows Bernie and Biden beating Trump by a larger margin in Pennsylvania than Wisconsin. All the evidence I've seen indicates Wisconsin is the hardest get of 3 closest states Trump flipped.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:13
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Arglebargle III posted:Which state do you think you could flip? Wisconsin or Arizona
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Jan 26, 2020 18:14
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In retrospect I think giving up on saturday really just handed the entire weekend narrative and the sunday news cycle completely to schiff. Hell, not even handed, they gift wrapped it with a bow.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:In retrospect I think giving up on saturday really just handed the entire weekend narrative and the sunday news cycle completely to schiff. Hell, not even handed, they gift wrapped it with a bow. yeah. like you said. i am surprised the Chuds didnt come out hard. but all i am seeing is loving master shake and cotton.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah. like you said. i am surprised the Chuds didnt come out hard. but all i am seeing is loving master shake and cotton. Trump said Saturday was bad ratings, aka, he doesn't want to watch it all day saturday
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Jan 26, 2020 18:17
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oxsnard posted:yes, but you misread me. The issue was non-compliance with a regulation, not that a regulation had been weakened as was postulated above. BP absolutely didn't follow the regs as written or industrial standards You are incorrect. The lack of inspection and enforcement is a weakening of the regulations. There should be many many more inspectors and regulators who are independently verifying compliance. Right now that is razor thin, horrifyingly thin.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:18
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I'm operating under the assumption that Trump will be re-elected and we'll have to deal with at least four more years of this bullshit. If he leaves office then that will be a nice surprise and perhaps a sign that all this damage can be reversed.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:20
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You are incorrect. You literally don't know what you're talking about. Funding for the EPA National Enforcement Center increased every year from 1990 to 2016. BP Texas City happened in 2005. EPA has been slamming RMP violations like gangbusters Changes since 2017 aren't encouraging, but that has nothing to do with what happened in 2005
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Jan 26, 2020 18:26
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Kelly has a solid shot in AZ, and he will probably drag many olds leftwards.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:26
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Dick Trauma posted:I'm operating under the assumption that Trump will be re-elected and we'll have to deal with at least four more years of this bullshit. If he leaves office then that will be a nice surprise and perhaps a sign that all this damage can be reversed. We have also not had a 1 term president since Bush Sr
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Jan 26, 2020 18:27
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eke out posted:to cross post here, the schedule is basically dependent on whether Trump's attorneys use the entirety of their time, which they're telling people they won't: Finally, the op ed page will be ours and political power will naturally follow.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:31
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Mercury Ballistic posted:Kelly has a solid shot in AZ, and he will probably drag many olds leftwards. He’s the favorite at this point. Keep in mind mcsally lost in 2018 against an openly bisexual female candidate. Kelly is beloved. He’ll roll mcsally.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:32
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eke out posted:this is a bad take that i've seen with alarming regularity. the last senate election in 2018 was decided by .1% of the vote, ten thousand people total, with republican turnout near the max it can possibly be. 2020 will have even more turnout, the question is only whether we can mobilize our base more successfully. The election with a highly popular incumbent dem vs a highly unpopular rep governor? The fact that it was so close should be telling how bad it is, not how good it is. Nelson was part of this junk establishment we have down here. He barely campaigned, and should have retired before the election. quote:
The polls I've seen are bad. Biden is the only one polling ahead of Trump, and by the thinnest of margins of error. quote:and felon reenfranchisement already happened, it's not "slow-rolled", what are you even talking about? That's good to hear, and I appreciate your efforts to help register the voters. What I was referring to is the the legislature and governor putting up road blocks for re-enfranchisement. Paying back the fines is absolutely not what any of the voters had in mind for amendment 4. When faced with the task of paying rent or paying the government fines in able to vote, which do you think people will choose? On that topic, is that semi recent court ruling still holding up? The one that states only those "proven to be able to have a way to pay" (whatever that means) have to pay for their right to vote to be restored. eke out posted:
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Jan 26, 2020 18:32
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Dick Trauma posted:I'm operating under the assumption that Trump will be re-elected and we'll have to deal with at least four more years of this bullshit. If he leaves office then that will be a nice surprise and perhaps a sign that all this damage can be reversed. If he's reelected he will die in office. The guy won't make it to 78.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:32
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I'm not convinced Trump is getting reelected but it's depressingly more likely than it should be. I mean looking at my map I feel like, "yeah we definitely have to win one of NC, IA, WI, AZ, FL or OH" and none of that feels in the realm of "yeah that's definitely happening". I mean it's still ten months out and conditions will be more clear as we move towards fall. I feel like if Trump is getting the boot, Blue will win more than one of those states, but that map or something very close to it seems unfortunately close to the current state of things.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:33
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Every time you look at the map and feel despair your first point of action should be to find an organizing group to get involved with, or to donate to one of the myriad orgs working hard to flip states or secure voting rights etc etc. The numbers exist to seize control of the country, vanquish Republicans in the House, Senate, and send Trump to prison where he belongs. It is going to take an absolute insane amount of work to do so, however. Get in.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:36
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Darko posted:I have no idea what would happen with the first, really - that would just destroy financial outlooks from the larger companies, losing people's jobs and investments and get people to actually do something. The second would just be business as usual like Gore's loss, where people just complain about it. My imagining would be Trump and his supporters would cry foul at a Bernie win, even after the states certify the election results, but would hush down when the Joint Chiefs and the everyperson at the DoJ, CIA, etc. tell him that he has three months to get hosed, then afterwards the Republicans and many of his supporters start memory-holing Trump.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:37
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Zwabu posted:I'm not convinced Trump is getting reelected but it's depressingly more likely than it should be. I mean looking at my map I feel like, "yeah we definitely have to win one of NC, IA, WI, AZ, FL or OH" and none of that feels in the realm of "yeah that's definitely happening". I mean it's still ten months out and conditions will be more clear as we move towards fall. The real tragedy is that "getting rid of Trump" is such a low bar compared to the scale and scope of the changes this country desperatly needs right loving now. The fact that there's a real chance the US can't even reach that minimal stepping stone is really upsetting.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:41
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Mercury Ballistic posted:Kelly has a solid shot in AZ, and he will probably drag many olds leftwards. Yep Arizona is a must-win for Democrats to have any chance of taking the Senate. Arizona is probably the Dems best bet for offense in 2020. MI, PA are technically defense. WI is like the dead middle of the field. Arizona could be the state the Biden thesis makes the most sense - that former Republicans disgusted with Trump looking for a Democrat to vote for will find acceptable. RCP has Biden ahead in Arizona +.3, Bernie losing -5.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:42
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https://twitter.com/sarperduman/status/1221487426444591110
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Jan 26, 2020 18:43
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oxsnard posted:You literally don't know what you're talking about. My previous employer is mentioned by name in 49 CFR as assisting USCG in the administration of one of the sub chapters. I inspected DG in transit for compliance with federal and international regulations for almost 15 years. My NDA ends in about a year.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:49
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It was away way back but someone in here (I think) asked about what the political landscape looks like post-Trump and I think this piece tries to answer some of those questions while also raising some pretty uncomfortable implications: posted:One audience member tried to bait Bolton with a question about immigration in Europe: “Should we be worried about European birth levels?” But Bolton, sensing a trap, resisted this. He did not want to tell Europeans how many children they should have, nor Africans either. He wasn’t going to perform any symbolic allegiance to Trumpist themes. Instead, he bore down on the points he wanted to make to an audience that viewed him as oil in the water of Trump’s foreign policy. Venezuela might have to be occupied by the United States. Why? Well, it was already occupied by the Cubans. “If the 20,000 or more Cubans in Venezuela left tomorrow, the Maduro government would fall by midnight.” NATO nations needed to pay their fair share, just as Obama had said, though Trump had said it more forcefully. There was more continuity between the two administrations than the NatCons might like to acknowledge. Bolton was allergic to pandering and made no attempt to hide his addiction to American global supremacy and wars of choice. He was honest about his wish never to get clean. posted:In support of Cass, further speeches came from the floor. A voice from the South, J. D. Vance’s, made a searing appeal in emotional tones. The author of Hillbilly Elegy, Vance was the bard of the NatCons, the most gifted lyricist of Trumpism. He was from Appalachia and had climbed his way into the elite hive of Yale Law School. “I’m a venture capitalist,” he said. “If you’re in the Peninsula, right off highway 101 there’s an exit called Willow Road. And on Willow Road you’ll find the Facebook headquarters. And at Facebook, there are neuroscientists currently being paid a lot of money quite literally to addict our children to their applications. And not far from the Facebook headquarters, there are neuroscientists working on how to cure dementia, and how to cure some of the most intractable diseases that affect our society. The people who are working at Facebook addicting our children to their applications make much more money than the people who are attempting to cure our society of its worst diseases, and I think this question about whether we should have an industrial policy ultimately reduces to the question of, Do you think our politics should have an answer about whether it is more valuable to cure our grandchildren than to addict them to terrible applications? And I think the answer is obviously yes.” posted:Thiel was going to “drill down into some of the particulars” of these matters. Google? It had lost any attachment to the American nation, and it was in bed with Chinese intelligence. Its executives should be interrogated “in a not excessively gentle way.” Then came an interesting twist: China was dirtying up the whole globe, Thiel said. He suggested that the 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods be “reframed” as a carbon tax, “and maybe the twenty-five percent is a floor and not a ceiling.” The audience loved the way he was co-opting a left-wing cause (climate change) for NatCon ends (American greatness). It was even perhaps more subtle than that: co-opting a left-wing policy program (carbon-taxing a country in order to encourage it to green its economy) and just insisting that its content was populist protectionist. The Trump team, according to Thiel, already had the correct instincts on trade: “You don’t want people negotiating trade treaties who dogmatically believe in free trade, because the worse they are at negotiating, the better job they think they do.” posted:Tucker had some tough news for the assembled faithful. “Big Business Hates Your Family” was the title of his talk. Monopoly capitalism was real. “The main threat to your ability to live your life as you choose does not come from the government, but comes from the private sector,” Tucker said. “I was trained from the youngest age, from a pup, to believe that the threats to liberty came from government. . . . And so it really took a huge amount of evidence wagging right in my face—not being the brightest person in D.C.—to realize that in 2019 . . . the threats come primarily from companies, and not from the federal government.” He could give examples. “All new Oreos have the label ‘What’s your pronoun?’ A large American company is committing a pretty brazen act of propaganda aimed at your kids, and the message is that the binary gender scheme which we were taught in biology class in seventh grade is no longer operative.” In fighting this, the libertarians would be worse than useless. Their response was, Yeah, well, if you don’t like it, start your own Oreo company. “But that’s not really an operative option in a world of monopoly power. . . . You can’t create your own Google. . . . You have more power vested in fewer hands than at any time in American history. And that itself is ominous and should make all of us cast aside any thread of ideology or theology or whatever, just look at that straight in the face. Are you comfortable with that? You shouldn’t be. Of course you’re not. . . . They can make whole ideas disappear. And there’s some evidence that they’re working to do that.” https://harpers.org/archive/2020/02/trumpism-after-trump/
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Jan 26, 2020 18:54
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Bar Ran Dun posted:My previous employer is mentioned by name in 49 CFR as assisting USCG in the administration of one of the sub chapters. Cool and what does the coast guard have to do with RMP? I've literally audited internal bp documents related to the incident as part of due diligence. Regardless of your views of the effectiveness of government inspection, the Texas City failure was related to internal communications that would've never been caught in a government audit. BP should've been killed after this and moreso after Deepwater specifically because they did illegal poo poo that was designed to circumvent govt inspection
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Jan 26, 2020 18:56
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oxsnard posted:Regardless of your views of the effectiveness of government inspection, I’ve prevented events like that as an independent not for profit inspector in the field.
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Jan 26, 2020 18:59
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I’ve prevented events like that as an independent not for profit inspector in the field. First of all, CG regulations are nothing like PSM, as the latter is systems and performance based. Second, as someone who has been a third party auditor, an internal auditor and a government inspector, not all audits are the same
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Jan 26, 2020 19:04
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oxsnard posted:First of all, CG regulations are nothing like PSM, as the latter is systems and performance based. Second, as someone who has been a third party auditor, an internal auditor and a government inspector, not all audits are the same Yes and I’ve done safety audits on behalf of four governments ? Address my assertion: We need more people in the field enforcing and inspecting for compliance and not having them makes regulation weaker.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:16
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It's kind of too early to predict the election. What is the economy going to do? Could it remain as it is right now? Sure. Could there be another crash? Sure. No one knows! I don't think Obama would have been elected in 08 without endless soundbites of republicans saying "The economy is great, it is fundamentally sound and will be great forever!" about 2 weeks before it exploded. I have a weird feeling that if we don't have a recession this year one will almost certainly occur towards the beginning of the next presidential term. If it's a democratic president they are going to be hosed because only democrats have to actually deal with consequences.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:19
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Spite posted:I don't think Obama would have been elected in 08 without endless soundbites of republicans saying "The economy is great, it is fundamentally sound and will be great forever!" about 2 weeks before it exploded. Obama was cruising even before the economy melted down.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:20
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Yea the Mccain team panicked and picked Palin for VP because they were so far down in the polls and wanted a “Game Change”. There’s even a tv show about it! That said the economy exploding basically guaranteed Obama would win by historic margins as people were just loving sick of the Bush era and anything related to it.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:23
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lmao remember when everyone freaked out by McCain suspending his campaign like it was some loving political master stroke? then he got to DC and had no idea what was happening and just dementia'd around the room, loving poo poo up? I think Pillowpants probably lost a couple years off his life.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:25
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No I remembered him being laughed at for that.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:29
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Anecdote and all but my young Republican neighbor who grew up son of a cop in west Texas has been a never Trumper since 2016. He announced yesterday he has formerly left the party and hopes to vote for Biden. Small steps and all I guess.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:31
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FizFashizzle posted:Obama was cruising even before the economy melted down. No, he wasn't https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html On 9/15, when Lehman Brothers announced it would file for bankruptcy, McCain was ahead in the polling average. edit: if you want a blow by blow: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2008/10/the-john-mccain-campaignsuspension-timeline
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Jan 26, 2020 19:31
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McCain was almost certainly going to lose even if the economy didn't tank. Obama winning in 2008 was the second most predictable election of my lifetime after Bush I.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:32
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Solaris 2.0 posted:Yea the Mccain team panicked and picked Palin for VP because they were so far down in the polls and wanted a “Game Change”. There’s even a tv show about it! Another big help was that the right-wing media had spent four years gearing up for a campaign against Hillary Clinton, and they really didn't have that much time to change streams. Even the Kenyan Muslim Socialist stuff was thin on the right back then since most of the right just hoped for a lot of bad blood from Obama supporters hurting Clinton in the general until it became apparent he was going to get the nomination. The real right-wing hatred of Obama didn't really spin up properly until he was already in office.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:34
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joepinetree posted:No, he wasn't holy poo poo I'm having flashbacks to those 2008 polls, especially that McCain +10 USA Today poll 9/5-9/7
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Jan 26, 2020 19:35
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FizFashizzle posted:holy poo poo I'm having flashbacks to those 2008 polls, especially that McCain +10 USA Today poll 9/5-9/7 Those polls were from the week after the Republican National Convention, where candidates are expected to get a polling bounce. If you looked at the aggregate from that entire year, as well as the state-level polling, nothing changed for McCain. He was gonna lose bigly.
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Jan 26, 2020 19:37
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ummel posted:Until the state Dem apparatus gets its poo poo together, it's going to be more of the same. There's just too many centrist dems here vs progressives. I'm not saying it won't ever change, but no one should consider Florida a swing state for Trump in 2020. Especially with the "legalize weed" young person bait off the ballot. okay well thanks, one way to help make sure Trump wins Florida in 2020 is to do your best to discourage anyone from caring about the state or believing we can possibly win
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Jan 26, 2020 19:38
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exquisite tea posted:Those polls were from the week after the Republican National Convention, where candidates are expected to get a polling bounce. If you looked at the aggregate from that entire year, as well as the state-level polling, nothing changed for McCain. He was gonna lose bigly. Oh yeah, I know. Especially when you read things like Gamechange where the McCain campaign was going broke the whole time and like wasting money running polls in Alaska. I just meant reading the threads on here when those polls were released. I'd just graduated and obviously there weren't jobs so all I was doing at the time was 
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Jan 26, 2020 19:40
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FizFashizzle posted:holy poo poo I'm having flashbacks to those 2008 polls, especially that McCain +10 USA Today poll 9/5-9/7 That was my last month of college. I already had a job lined up, but watching the investment banks failing in real time while preparing for finals was bad enough. Then McCain being up like that was horrifying.
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