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Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

Groovelord Neato posted:

That fucker lives in the UK lmao

even better!

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

oxsnard posted:

Yeah Bloomberg sucks rear end but he's polling nationally at 5-10% so he probably should be on the debate stage. How he got to that level in the first place is a separate issue (and should be eliminated through campaign finance reform)

If pollsters wanted they could get Hillary Clinton on the debate stage. Since if they included her she’d get that much support.

I’m not sure pollsters should be involved at all once there are delegates. Why should candidates with 0 delegates be on the stage?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

It was never based on money, it was based on number of unique donors.

You can raise only $225,000 for your entire campaign but if it was from 225,000 people who each gave a dollar then you're good. On the other hand your campaign can have $Texas-Times-A-Billion but if that's all just your personal funds or from your friend Peter Thiel or something then you don't qualify. It's the reason that just before she dropped out, Gillibrand was trying to bribe people to donate by offering them free T-shirts if they just chip in $1. She had millions in Wall Street cash, but no actual grassroots support, so in desperation she was cynically trying to launder that banker cash into fake support. It didn't work lol.

The number of unique donors requirement was great, a better measure of real grassroots support than some pre-selected subset of "qualifying polls" which are all fake anyway (or at least based on arbitrary bullshit like turnout models)

As Steyer demonstrated, getting donors is based far more on how willing you are to hand massive stacks of cash to Facebook than "actual grassroots support." There are enough people who just donate to any Dem campaign that even Booker was able to hit it despite not having enough actual support to get near the polling threshold.

hobotrashcanfires posted:

He's a joke, and he shouldn't, actually. It's kinda bad and poisonous to literally buy presidential campaigns.

That he can is the poo poo reality we're presently stuck in. Nobody has to pretend its somehow legitimate, as you seem to want to insist it is. Of course that's just how you always roll with all the rot in our political system.

There are people who want to vote for him. In fact, far more want to vote for him than Pete Buttigieg. It makes zero sense to see Pete on the stage and not Bloomberg. But again, Bloomberg is perfectly happy with that scenario.

bowser
Apr 7, 2007

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1223344642059534337?s=20

*audible "Ooooohs" from the studio audience*

https://twitter.com/mugrimm/status/1223338397609156608?s=20

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

oxsnard posted:

Yeah Bloomberg sucks rear end but he's polling nationally at 5-10% so he probably should be on the debate stage

Should Michelle Obama be on that stage

"I'm not running but apparently enough of you would vote for a name you heard before that I'm here, that's the law"

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

Should Michelle Obama be on that stage

"I'm not running but apparently enough of you would vote for a name you heard before that I'm here, that's the law"

If Michelle Obama was running for president, yes? That seems to be the key difference here?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Concerned Citizen posted:

As Steyer demonstrated, getting donors is based far more on how willing you are to hand massive stacks of cash to Facebook than "actual grassroots support."

Nah she handed massive stacks of cash to Facebook too and couldn't even qualify for the third debate. That's how I noticed her "I'll pay you in T-shirts to pretend you like me" Hail Mary play.

Probably has more to do with her sucking poo poo so much worse than Steyer it's not even funny op

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

If Michelle Obama was running for president, yes? That seems to be the key difference here?

Bloomberg isn't running in Nevada, and that's where the stage is. In fact, he's not trying to win at all. He's trying to strip enough delegates from Bernie to force a contested convention.

Mahoning
Feb 3, 2007
Look, “Bloomberg should be on stage because he’s polling well” is a fine point to make but the DNC changing the rules this late in the game after Tom Perez already said the rules can’t be changed to have a climate change debate because it might benefit some candidates and not others, you can understand why people were pissed when they heard this news.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Concerned Citizen posted:

There are people who want to vote for him. In fact, far more want to vote for him than Pete Buttigieg. It makes zero sense to see Pete on the stage and not Bloomberg. But again, Bloomberg is perfectly happy with that scenario.

If that's the case then he'd qualify with the delegate option.

No need to remove the donor requirement to get him onstage even if he wins zero delegates in IA and NH

Concerned Citizen posted:

If Michelle Obama was running for president, yes? That seems to be the key difference here?

Oh ok so it shouldn't just be based on what you can get people to say in a poll, gotcha

Also Bloomber isn't running in Nevada either so...

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

Nah she handed massive stacks of cash to Facebook too and couldn't even qualify for the third debate. That's how I noticed her "I'll pay you in T-shirts to pretend you like me" Hail Mary play.

Probably has more to do with her sucking poo poo so much worse than Steyer it's not even funny op

Gillibrand was pretty close to the donor threshold but also was spending millions on ads to hit the polling one, which she missed by a mile

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

VitalSigns posted:


Oh ok so it shouldn't just be based on what you can get people to say in a poll, gotcha

No, see, it should be this esoteric, completely made up set of parameters that specifically exist so that I can justify having Bloomberg on stage. That way, he can continue to pollute our democracy with endless bags of money because corruption is legal and good.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Concerned Citizen posted:

Gillibrand was pretty close to the donor threshold but also was spending millions on ads to hit the polling one, which she missed by a mile

OK so do you even realize you just destroyed your own argument

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

I'm okay with Bloomberg being in the debate even if the reason he's in it is dumb and malicious. The guy has no chance of winning and he'll only drain votes from people who mostly wouldn't support Bernie in the first place.

It's pretty amazing what a piece of poo poo that guy is, though. Like, every bit as much of a piece of poo poo as someone like Trump.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

If that's the case then he'd qualify with the delegate option.

No need to remove the donor requirement to get him onstage even if he wins zero delegates in IA and NH

Ok well what if those people don't like in IA and NH? I don't think those two states should be first, much less be the arbiter of who is truly running for president.

quote:

Oh ok so it shouldn't just be based on what you can get people to say in a poll, gotcha

Also Bloomber isn't running in Nevada either so...

Ok, you got me. The presidential primary debates should only have people who are running for president. I am undone.

Yes it's weird that Bloom didn't register for NV but I personally don't really care about the physical location of a nationally broadcasted debate.

Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Jan 31, 2020

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

OK so do you even realize you just destroyed your own argument

Counterpoint: I did not. Because Steyer, in fact, has more money than Gillibrand and easily hit the donor threshold while scraping to the polling one.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Ytlaya posted:

I'm okay with Bloomberg being in the debate even if the reason he's in it is dumb and malicious. The guy has no chance of winning and he'll only drain votes from people who mostly wouldn't support Bernie in the first place.

It's pretty amazing what a piece of poo poo that guy is, though. Like, every bit as much of a piece of poo poo as someone like Trump.

While I think the outcome is good (another moderate getting in and taking away airtime from other moderates since he will be attacking Bernie who will get more time to respond, and hopefully hurting moderates by splitting the vote), the process of the DNC arbitrarily deleting requirements midrace to get who they want in the debate is bad.

Mind_Taker
May 7, 2007



Yeah Bloomberg, Pete, and to a lesser extent Steyer being in the race for longer helps Bernie out because none of them are viable and they all serve to take votes from Biden.

Warren needs to drop out immediately after IA and NH though and endorse Bernie (no, I know she isn't going to actually do this). Her supporters legitimately will break for Bernie more than the other candidates. The longer she stays in the race the clearer it is that she doesn't actually give a poo poo about enacting a progressive agenda and building a progressive movement.

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

VitalSigns posted:

While I think the outcome is good (another moderate getting in and taking away airtime from other moderates since he will be attacking Bernie who will get more time to respond, and hopefully hurting moderates by splitting the vote), the process of the DNC arbitrarily deleting requirements midrace to get who they want in the debate is bad.

Oh, for sure, but there was never any question that these people are all corrupt scumbags. Better that they be incompetently corrupt.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Concerned Citizen posted:

Ok well what if those people don't like in IA and NH? I don't think those two states should be first, much less be the arbiter of who is truly running for president.
Well that's why they have another measure of national grassroots support, which is number of unique donors, and the rules shouldn't be changed just for him.

Concerned Citizen posted:

Ok, you got me. The presidential primary debates should only have people who are running for president. I am undone.

Yes it's weird that Bloom didn't register for NV but I personally don't really care about the physical location of a nationally broadcasted debate.

It's the debate specifically for the Nevada primary, you make no sense.

Concerned Citizen posted:

Counterpoint: I did not. Because Steyer, in fact, has more money than Gillibrand and easily hit the donor threshold while scraping to the polling one.

Then Bloomberg should have no problem making the donor threshold as long as he's as serious as Steyer and no need to remove that requirement just for him.

You're contradicting yourself constantly, you don't need to abuse your brain just to defend a billionaire's right to buy his way into a debate good god

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Cpt_Obvious posted:

No, see, it should be this esoteric, completely made up set of parameters that specifically exist so that I can justify having Bloomberg on stage. That way, he can continue to pollute our democracy with endless bags of money because corruption is legal and good.

Sounds like the DNC in a nutshell, tbf.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Mind_Taker posted:

The longer she stays in the race the clearer it is that she doesn't actually give a poo poo about enacting a progressive agenda and building a progressive movement.

That has been obvious for a while, but it became undeniable once she tried to smear Bernie as a sexist in an attempt to destroy him so progressives would have no alternative but to vote for "Medicare For Maybe In A Few Years"

hobotrashcanfires
Jul 24, 2013

Concerned Citizen posted:

As Steyer demonstrated, getting donors is based far more on how willing you are to hand massive stacks of cash to Facebook than "actual grassroots support." There are enough people who just donate to any Dem campaign that even Booker was able to hit it despite not having enough actual support to get near the polling threshold.


There are people who want to vote for him. In fact, far more want to vote for him than Pete Buttigieg. It makes zero sense to see Pete on the stage and not Bloomberg. But again, Bloomberg is perfectly happy with that scenario.

Steyer actually made some effort to get donors - and it's still poo poo he's trying to buy his way in as well. Bloomberg is shovelling money and coasting in off the people who just saw a guy on tv and answer every phone call.

Its actually okay to take a moral position on the issue of billionaires trying to buy political office, while acknowledging that is our unfortunate reality.

Concerned Citizen posted:

Bloomberg is rising because he can spend millions in positive ads while never facing any remotely hostile questions or scrutiny. Him being in a debate isn't a bad thing.

Though its loving hilarious to suggest it's good because now the media he's been giving hundreds of millions too can now go after him like they somehow couldn't before.

Especially after what we saw at the last debate, which was of course the culmination of Warren's foolhardy smear campaign against Bernie hand-in-hand with CNN. Remember when you unrelentingly defended the opening salvo of that like it was somehow legitimate and weirdly had no opinion to offer after it blew up in her face?

That this may well backfire is immaterial. It's not good for democracy and pointing that out is okay. Maybe it's time to drop your snide, disingenuous concern trolling shtick and post genuinely for once?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

I love how the unique donor requirement is somehow so absurdly easy to meet that it's just a useless measure of how much cash you give to Facebook, yet so onerous that it's unfair to a poor struggling work-a-day billionaire like Bloomberg.

It's anything you want it to be, as long as you support billionaires buying their way into the Democratic Party.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
Iowa Caucus Demographics for the last 3 cycles.

2004 -124,000 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -17%
  • 30-44 -15%
  • 45-64 -41%
  • 65+ -27%

2008 -239,872 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -22%
  • 30-44 -18%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -22%

2016 -171,517 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -18%
  • 30-44 -19%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -28%

I don't know why the 2008 and 2016 results are off by a couple points, but that's what I could find. If we can get turnout for the 44 and under crowd up near 40%, we could be looking at a real nice Monday night.

PepsiOverCoke
Dec 2, 2019

by Reene

Did the campaign itself attack sunrisemovement or is that just something a media outlet did?

Also showing up on a show doesn't mean you have their endorsement.

I think we're stretching here.



Also I genuinely thought no one liked Bloomberg but that dude in the Iowa interviews legit said Bloomberg was his first choice and his second choice was "The other rich one". So. Yay rural Democrats in Iowa.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

PepsiOverCoke posted:

Did the campaign itself attack sunrisemovement or is that just something a media outlet did?

Also showing up on a show doesn't mean you have their endorsement.

I think we're stretching here.

So are you suggesting that Pete is only going on Maher's show so if he gets his endorsement Pete can tell him to eat poo poo on national TV?

Because that seems...unlikely.

dispatch_async
Nov 28, 2014

Imagine having the time to have played through 20 generations of one family in The Sims 2. Imagine making the original two members of that family Neil Buchanan and Cat Deeley. Imagine complaining to Maxis there was no technological progression. You've successfully imagined my life

PepsiOverCoke posted:

Did the campaign itself attack sunrisemovement or is that just something a media outlet did?

It's in the quoted tweet
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1223084282358521857

PepsiOverCoke
Dec 2, 2019

by Reene

VitalSigns posted:

So are you suggesting that Pete is only going on Maher's show so if he gets his endorsement Pete can tell him to eat poo poo on national TV?

Because that seems...unlikely.

I think Pete is going on Mahers show because its the last chance to be on a national stage before the caucus, and he's free to do so, the others aren't because of the trial.

I'm pretty sure all of the candidates at one point or another have been on the show.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

VitalSigns posted:

I love how the unique donor requirement is somehow so absurdly easy to meet that it's just a useless measure of how much cash you give to Facebook, yet so onerous that it's unfair to a poor struggling work-a-day billionaire like Bloomberg.

It's anything you want it to be, as long as you support billionaires buying their way into the Democratic Party.

It's not onerous if you have unlimited money, it's that Bloomberg does not give a poo poo about the debates or actively doesn't really want to be on the debate stage.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Gyges posted:

Iowa Caucus Demographics for the last 3 cycles.

2004 -124,000 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -17%
  • 30-44 -15%
  • 45-64 -41%
  • 65+ -27%

2008 -239,872 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -22%
  • 30-44 -18%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -22%

2016 -171,517 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -18%
  • 30-44 -19%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -28%

I don't know why the 2008 and 2016 results are off by a couple points, but that's what I could find. If we can get turnout for the 44 and under crowd up near 40%, we could be looking at a real nice Monday night.

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Concerned Citizen posted:

It's not onerous if you have unlimited money, it's that Bloomberg does not give a poo poo about the debates or actively doesn't really want to be on the debate stage.

OK well then there's no need to let him in is there.

If he gets a delegate at some point, put him in the debate, no need to change the rules because the DNC wants to handpick the debates.

Built 4 Cuban Linux
Jul 15, 2007

i own america

goethe.cx posted:

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL

Only if they turn 18 by election day in November.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

goethe.cx posted:

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL

Most states let you vote in the primary if you will turn 18 in time for the general election, it only makes sense.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

goethe.cx posted:

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL


If they'll be 18 by Nov 3. I think most states let 17 year olds in the same boat vote in the primary. They also usually let 16 year olds register to vote after the mid-term election.

PepsiOverCoke
Dec 2, 2019

by Reene

goethe.cx posted:

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL

yeah we have a special protocol for it. They still have to register like everyone else and verify their age and stuff, but absolutely.

hobotrashcanfires
Jul 24, 2013

Concerned Citizen posted:

It's not onerous if you have unlimited money, it's that Bloomberg does not give a poo poo about the debates or actively doesn't really want to be on the debate stage.

https://twitter.com/KateAronoff/status/1223350128083439621?s=20

I wonder why people call this out hmm.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


VitalSigns posted:

Most states let you vote in the primary if you will turn 18 in time for the general election, it only makes sense.

It does, which is why I was surprised

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

goethe.cx posted:

It does, which is why I was surprised


We like to ensure our silly rules occasionally make sense, just to keep people on their toes.


Edit: So are we getting Princes Of The Universe embedded in the thread Monday night after Bernie wins the Iowa Gathering?

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PepsiOverCoke
Dec 2, 2019

by Reene
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/30/us/politics/iowa-poll-voters.html?auth=login-email&login=email#commentsContainer

Reposting because I know a few of these folks and they want to know how they are seen outside the state.

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