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Books On Tape posted:Multiply these by at least ten to get the real numbers, guaranteed. So, almost 3,000 dead, over 100,000 infected. Citation Needed.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:12
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William Henry Hairytaint posted:Citation Needed. Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths?
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Feb 1, 2020 00:16
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Books On Tape posted:Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths? Stick to the facts, nerd.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:18
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Books On Tape posted:Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths? No I just don't think you're in a position to be crunching numbers and guaranteeing anything, forums poster Books on Tape.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:18
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William Henry Hairytaint posted:No I just don't think you're in a position to be crunching numbers and guaranteeing anything, forums poster Books on Tape. i am, communists lie that's what they do so what they are telling everyone isn't true
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Feb 1, 2020 00:20
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200 people dying is propably the hourly average of people dying of smog in china. My theory is that China has been waiting for this to happen as they are propably well aware that they are a hotbed for the next superplague, and they're using this as a test run for when the big one hits. They can try out all their containment plans, show great leadership with Chinese characteristics, and learn what actually is going to work.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:21
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There's some statistical analysis around # of infected in order to see the spread of the disease overseas Jan 18th: E: just read it, it breaks down dates/numbers https://www.businessinsider.com/new-china-virus-likely-infected-1723-not-45-scientists-2020-1 Jan 25th analysis: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ tldr: way bigger than china is reporting
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Feb 1, 2020 00:21
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Books On Tape posted:Multiply these by at least ten to get the real numbers, guaranteed. So, almost 3,000 dead, over 100,000 infected. Actually I find if you multiply them by a million you get much bigger numbers.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:21
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Books On Tape posted:Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths? Like has to be repeated over and over, the death rate when care is available is pretty high but the real problem is the viral pneumonia. Death rate becomes a lot higher if intensive care can't be provided. Also, if the death rate is even 1% then that's enough reason to be extremely worried when you have over a billion people.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:22
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Books On Tape posted:Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths? Wuhan is like the London Ontario of china so yeah why not. Also it’s obviously the rate and not the current number that they are concerned about, just like the rest of us. (I’m not saying that China’s not lying about it tho)
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Feb 1, 2020 00:22
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Books On Tape posted:Honest Question. Do you really think China would order the closing of all non-essential businesses over only 200 deaths? we heard you the first ten times, dude
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Feb 1, 2020 00:28
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Golli posted:So are the Chinese construction workers the Modern-day Chernobyl coal miners? I don't know anything about the construction workers, but the Chernobyl miners performed an important task and only seemingly unexpected peroxide formation left it unutilized
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Feb 1, 2020 00:38
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Using the SIR epidemiological model, using the 11000 infection number, the predicted removal rate (through death or cure) is 785 per day with a 14 day infectious period. Which is more than they are reporting.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:41
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A man once said, "[Donald Trump] don't trust China, China is rear end in a top hat." I am not the smartest man in the world, but I think those words possess a certain wisdom.
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Feb 1, 2020 00:57
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Books On Tape posted:Multiply these by at least ten to get the real numbers, guaranteed. So, almost 3,000 dead, over 100,000 infected. infected yes, dead no
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Feb 1, 2020 01:24
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Death toll up to 259 https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223372109243613189 https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1223396372159901697
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Feb 1, 2020 01:27
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https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1223258649822474241 tl;dr most people who get it don't seek medical treatment
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Feb 1, 2020 01:28
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Charlz Guybon posted:Death toll up to 259 so, the common belief is that the dead number is probably much higher?
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Feb 1, 2020 01:30
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VikingSkull posted:https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1223258649822474241 Because they don't need treatment? Or because they're dying alone in their tiny apartments?
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Feb 1, 2020 01:33
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Rad-daddio posted:so, the common belief is that the dead number is probably much higher? I've assumed the infected number is much higher and it's probably less deadly than the reported numbers suggest.
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Feb 1, 2020 01:35
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im vu
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Feb 1, 2020 01:36
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Charlz Guybon posted:Because they don't need treatment? Or because they're dying alone in their tiny apartments? yes
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Feb 1, 2020 01:37
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Son of Rodney posted:200 people dying is propably the hourly average of people dying of smog in china. My countertheory is that they mostly hoped it wouldn't happen again and preparation for such a thing is done so on an individual basis throughout the party. Said preparation is limited to a mental note of at least one other person you can pin this on so you don't get any heat for not being prepared for it. Everything we see now as "the response" is cobbled together from last-minute meetings and half-finished plans from when SARS was a threat. e: my reference for this is based on my experience working in business offices in the united states
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Feb 1, 2020 02:28
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Son of Rodney posted:200 people dying is propably the hourly average of people dying of smog in china. No way the Chinese Communist Party is that forward thinking.
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Feb 1, 2020 02:31
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Uhhh, so the US government just announced it was going to bar entry to most US foreign nationals who've been to China in the past 2 weeks. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/business/china-travel-coronavirus.html Everything's... fine?
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Feb 1, 2020 02:42
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thats a pretty bad sign, that didnt happen with the ebola outbreaks
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Feb 1, 2020 02:47
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Books On Tape posted:Multiply these by at least ten to get the real numbers, guaranteed. So, almost 3,000 dead, over 100,000 infected. Isn't that still nothing compared to a bad flu season in any country with hundreds of millions of people?
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Feb 1, 2020 02:57
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OMFG FURRY posted:thats a pretty bad sign, that didnt happen with the ebola outbreaks Our stable genius was advocating for it during the Ebola outbreak
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Feb 1, 2020 02:58
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Biohazard posted:Admit it, the end days would be way more fun if we knew we engineered ourselves to extinction. Technically we have ?
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Feb 1, 2020 03:01
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WorldsStongestNerd posted:Isn't that still nothing compared to a bad flu season in any country with hundreds of millions of people? Annually influenza kills ~500k-700k worldwide. The last pandemic with similar mortality rate as the corona virus (~3% based on Chinas reported figures) was 1918 Spanish flu. 65 million dead worldwide.
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Feb 1, 2020 03:09
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WorldsStongestNerd posted:Isn't that still nothing compared to a bad flu season in any country with hundreds of millions of people? A lot of that depends on how you count a flu death. The US counts a Flu death if you have some underlying issue and the flu does you in. China counts a Flu death if that was the only thing wrong with you and you die. China claims to only have 150 (ish) flu deaths a year. The US says the following, quote:So far, 10,000 people have died and 180,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates from the CDC Take that for what you will when it comes to the numbers in China.
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Feb 1, 2020 03:11
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So according to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 And all talk of China's likelihood of publishing false stats aside -- They've added around 1500-2000 per day for the last five days 25: 2.7k 26: 4.4k (+1.7) 27: 6k (+1.6) 28: 7.7k (+1.7) 29: 9.7k (+2) 30: 11.2k (+1.5) What's the likelihood that those numbers represent the limit of their ability to diagnose new cases per day, and not the actual rate of new infections?
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Feb 1, 2020 03:31
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just another posted:So according to https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Feb 1, 2020 03:35
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 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html#virulence
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Feb 1, 2020 04:15
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I saw that this afternoon, and I was surprised that bird flu was that lethal.
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Feb 1, 2020 04:24
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doctorfrog posted:
Thank you doctor for this informative graph.
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Feb 1, 2020 04:25
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FlamingLiberal posted:I saw that this afternoon, and I was surprised that bird flu was that lethal. IIRC it basically liquified your lungs and made your immune system go into overload
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Feb 1, 2020 04:30
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VikingSkull posted:IIRC it basically liquified your lungs and made your immune system go into overload Corona needs to step up its game imo
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Feb 1, 2020 04:31
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It burns when I fart. Corona?
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Feb 1, 2020 04:38
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PyPy posted:It burns when I fart. Corona? plz stop fear mongering
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Feb 1, 2020 04:42
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