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oxsnard posted:i know thread consensus is that we want warren to poo poo the bed, but I honestly think Biden getting stomped is the most important thing. Him getting 4th or 5th would evaporate his soft support in the South and Bernie polls second best among black voters. Remember that Clinton was leading Obama in the south pre Iowa in 2008. Believing that Obama could win among white voters seems to have helped a ton I don't think Biden's voters go to Bernie though. They are idiots so it's pretty hard to predict how they would even break if Biden crashes and burns.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:17
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https://twitter.com/cushbomb/status/1224366670971645952?s=21
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Feb 3, 2020 18:17
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the next satellite caucus will take place in one hour at UFCW Local 230 in Ottumwa. that union endorsed bernie sanders, so he should probably carry it handily.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:18
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Main Paineframe posted:I think extremely online leftists aren't the only people who've lost faith in electoralism after decades of bipartisan billionaire domination. The particular way in which it manifests differs from group to group and from place to place, but I think there's a surprising number of people out there who feel that their vote won't matter no matter what they do, and have buried that under a layer of rationalization to distance themselves from that uncomfortable feeling. oh absolutely, you’re exactly right there. it’s a defense mechanism that comes from generations of disenfranchisement and despair
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Feb 3, 2020 18:18
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mcmagic posted:I don't think Biden's voters go to Bernie though. They are idiots so it's pretty hard to predict how they would even break if Biden crashes and burns. The olds who legitimately want a centrist candidate wouldn't go to Bernie, no, but a lot of the "I just want the candidate who can beat Trump!" voters will break for whoever looks like has momentum. Bernie picking up Iowa followed by NH with Biden placing in a distant third or worse would make a lot of those folks move to Bernie.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:20
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I'm going to bed, I hope to hear good news in the morning. I'm kind of terrified. I unbookmarked this thread 3 weeks ago because I was getting stomachaches reading it. Bernie not doing well would kind of send me into a stupor.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:22
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Mandrel posted:here in Alabama that’s most people I know in my personal life including family I think there is a lot of truth in that meme "we have made it so taboo to talk politics and religion that we actually forgot to talk about politics and religion" I dont mean this as some Boomer conciliatory attitude about being nice or being respectful, of some "good ole days",i mean people are literally too stupid, illiterate, or tribal to actually internalize new information. You can literally go up to a person in rural Iowa, explain "hey, here is the plan with Trump and here is the plan with Bernie/Warren/literally any dem and it will save you money". They will nod along enthusiastically and then vote for Trump because they either dont care, feel pressured to do so by their peers, or they (and i think this is the likely one) forgot everything they thought they understood as soon as you left their house/porch/workplace. They just cant get outside of their tribe when it comes to this kind of thing and its precisely why we have minority rule at the Federal level and its loving awful. No im not bitter about rural America at all why do you ask.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:23
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kidkissinger posted:everyone, please give bernie your energy gently caress yeah Bernie! When do results start rolling in?
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Feb 3, 2020 18:25
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I'm not getting stomachaches but my blood pressure feels high and jittery. Another 8 hours of waiting. Godamn I need to calm down.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:28
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KidDynamite posted:gently caress yeah Bernie! When do results start rolling in? Roughly 9pm Eastern
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Feb 3, 2020 18:28
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oxsnard posted:i know thread consensus is that we want warren to poo poo the bed, but I honestly think Biden getting stomped is the most important thing. Him getting 4th or 5th would evaporate his soft support in the South and Bernie polls second best among black voters. Remember that Clinton was leading Obama in the south pre Iowa in 2008. Believing that Obama could win among white voters seems to have helped a ton I think it's ideal for either both or neither to get completely stomped, since if one goes down and the other doesn't, the other will likely consolidate their support. So something like Biden or Warren getting 1st or 2nd and the other getting stomped is probably worse than them getting 2nd and 3rd place to Bernie's 1st. pepsi lover posted:I feel blessed to live in this time because very significant things are happening. it's certainly not boring. I hope you all feel as lucky as I do. Nah, it actually sucks rear end if you're one of the countless people affected by it. PepsiOverCoke posted:Knocking on doors in small town Iowa is both hopeful and depressing. They will talk your ear off on how great or bad any candidate is. You ask if they are going to caucus....and they say nah. That's only depressing when the person is Bernie, though. It's great if any of the other supporters stay home.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:30
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Mahoning posted:Just a timely reminder not to pay too much attention to Five Thirty Eight. They were down by 10 after three quarters of faffing about. If you predicted they'd turn it around you're either crazy or using DABEARS algorithm and thus never doubted.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:32
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Main Paineframe posted:Please send your energy to Bernie in the form of campaign donations and volunteering offers, not emptyquoted gifs (at least not in this thread, anyway).  Sending $27 out
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Feb 3, 2020 18:33
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https://twitter.com/melodymercadotv/status/1224379254768652288 caucus energy intensifying
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Feb 3, 2020 18:34
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I am very excited.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:35
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PepsiOverCoke posted:I think there is a lot of truth in that meme "we have made it so taboo to talk politics and religion that we actually forgot to talk about politics and religion" Political tribalism isn't limited to "flyover country"
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Feb 3, 2020 18:36
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Epicurius posted:I read a suggestion, which makes sense to me, that DC should have an early primary. It's more diverse and solidly Democratic, as well as urban, unlike Iowa and New Hampshire. Plus, having to actually spend time in DC campaigning and talking to residents might make the candidates more aware of its needs and concerns. My friends made a documentary about Bernie supports during the last DC primary. Text, call, donate, empty quote gifs, whatever just do your part. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fywcjI6fB8Q
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Feb 3, 2020 18:36
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The Lemondrop Dandy posted:Could you expand? I'm not 100% on the arcane caucus procedure details and am curious. It is a brand new system, the rules changed a bunch and so it seems ripe for manipulation. For example, if that Caucus in Tbilisi had 3 attendees and all were pro-Bernie, from what I understand that would give Bernie 4 precinct level delegates for the pseudo-county made up of all the satellite caucuses. If the results in the district from the actual caucuses are fairly close, then making sure you have a 4-5 people show up at satellite caucuses around the world and USA could have a greater impact than if another 100+ showed up at caucuses in the USA. I am not saying anything will happen like that, but its the part of the election with the most recently drafted rules, no previous example, and a lot harder for campaigns to observe.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:37
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PepsiOverCoke posted:I think there is a lot of truth in that meme "we have made it so taboo to talk politics and religion that we actually forgot to talk about politics and religion" I think significant numbers of people support m4a. Look, you're not going to get everyone to agree, but universal healthcare is wildly popular all around, and has strong support even within the Republican party. The problem is that the Democratic party has never seriously offered material improvements to our well being. Say what you want about Trump, he talked about the deficit, job losses, and wages. Granted, he blamed those things on foreigner, but he at least addressed them. Some people can see through the racist deflections, but a lot of people got suckered in. Maybe they won't vote for Bernie, maybe they'll go in for Trump again despite him doing nothing. But you need to look past that as well. Soon, Bernie may be pushing for m4a, and if he has bipartisan voter support, that gives him a lot more leverage.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:38
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Trabisnikof posted:It is a brand new system, the rules changed a bunch and so it seems ripe for manipulation. For example, if that Caucus in Tbilisi had 3 attendees and all were pro-Bernie, from what I understand that would give Bernie 4 precinct level delegates for the pseudo-county made up of all the satellite caucuses. keep in mind that the SDEs assigned to these satellite caucuses is very low, so they won't really have much of an overall impact.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:39
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Grouchio posted:I'm not getting stomachaches but my blood pressure feels high and jittery. Another 8 hours of waiting. Godamn I need to calm down. This isn't to you specifically, but just because we had a lot of incidents in 2016 election night, please guys go to the hospital if you feel like something is wrong. A lot of goons are getting to the age where things aren't just random aches and pains. If you feel like something is wrong, believe it's wrong and get treated, please.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:39
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Having some dental work done this afternoon, gonna spend the evening on those good Biden supporter drugs
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Feb 3, 2020 18:43
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https://twitter.com/PaigeGodden/status/1224387354858807297 update: there is now a warren sign at the ufcw caucus. this might be the crucial turning point for this caucus.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:43
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kidkissinger posted:everyone, please give bernie your energy take my energy king. Greece is with you!
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Feb 3, 2020 18:44
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FizFashizzle posted:This isn't to you specifically, but just because we had a lot of incidents in 2016 election night, please guys go to the hospital if you feel like something is wrong. What happened on 2016 election night? Did some goons get perma'ed from life?
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Feb 3, 2020 18:44
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Concerned Citizen posted:https://twitter.com/PaigeGodden/status/1224387354858807297 
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Feb 3, 2020 18:44
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https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1224383563212173312
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Feb 3, 2020 18:46
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GoutPatrol posted:I'm going to bed, I hope to hear good news in the morning. I'm kind of terrified. I unbookmarked this thread 3 weeks ago because I was getting stomachaches reading it. Bernie not doing well would kind of send me into a stupor. the first month of 2020 has been absolutely brutal to me for personal reasons that have nothing to do with politics, i am so emotionally fried already that i don't know how the gently caress i could handle sanders losing iowa because i really genuinely feel that if he loses iowa, at least to biden, then it's all over hopefully i don't have to figure out how to cope with that reality but i'm still a total goddamn wreck right now
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Feb 3, 2020 18:46
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FizFashizzle posted:This isn't to you specifically, but just because we had a lot of incidents in 2016 election night, please guys go to the hospital if you feel like something is wrong. Good thing we have universal health coverage! ... ...
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Feb 3, 2020 18:47
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Failed Imagineer posted:What happened on 2016 election night? Did some goons get perma'ed from life?
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Feb 3, 2020 18:48
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https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1224389145864392707
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Feb 3, 2020 18:49
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Not gonna lie, pretty worried about tonight.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:51
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Not all of us have energy to spare so ngl it's extremely frustrating that posters itt are trying to bully me into sending energy I dont have to a candidate I frankly am not that crazy about.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:54
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Pollyanna posted:Not gonna lie, pretty worried about tonight. bad username/post combo
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Feb 3, 2020 18:54
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Calibanibal posted:Not all of us have energy to spare so ngl it's extremely frustrating that posters itt are trying to bully me into sending energy I dont have to a candidate I frankly am not that crazy about. Put on some socks and scooch around on the carpet for a minute, it'll charge you right up
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Feb 3, 2020 18:56
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Calibanibal posted:Not all of us have energy to spare so ngl it's extremely frustrating that posters itt are trying to bully me into sending energy I dont have to a candidate I frankly am not that crazy about. strong vegeta energy from this post
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Feb 3, 2020 18:56
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Bernie’s gonna win
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Feb 3, 2020 18:58
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_35a7sn6ds
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Feb 3, 2020 18:58
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Pollyanna posted:Not gonna lie, pretty worried about tonight. Be optimistic. You have nothing to lose but your chains.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:59
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this makes me sad since Miranda almost certainly doesn't back Sanders.
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Feb 3, 2020 19:00
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