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ma i married a tuna posted:So after several days of large, but roughly linear increases I'm wondering whether that means something in terms of containment. I remember in 2014 Ebola something similar happened - when people were initially were very concerned about exponential increase, and attributed the increase to limitations of measurement rather than an actual picture. I would guess that testing capacity increase in Wuhan is a big priority, so if we're not seeing bigger numbers day by day it is possible the containment has some effect. They straight up said they can only process about 2k tests per day. Several studies have basically said 'yeah, it's probably like 75k, but we can't prove it. Yet.' Between the no symptoms communicability of this, long incubation period, plus the severe respiratory issues that result from it, this is gonna get way worse before it gets better. Ebola on the other hand, doesn't have nearly the incubation period, and the communicability of it once you know it's there is super low, as basic quarantine and hygiene are able to contain it easily enough. Keep in mind, deaths are only reported if they are: A) Admitted to the hospital (this is hard when there are lines hours long just to be told 'you have the flu, go home') B) They are tested (They're limited to about 2k test kits a day, based on a few reports) C) You die of Corona and nothing else (If you have any preexisting conditions that Corona aggravates, like Emphysema or bad Asthma, congrats, you died from those, not Corona) TheBuilder posted:The other Chinese provinces are possibly suppressing numbers because they don't want to get poo poo on by Beijing It's probably closer to 'we can't be blamed for not finding what people try so hard to hide' while whistling and looking anywhere but at sick people. But yes, there is a big incentive for everyone to under-report cases, at least in the short to medium term. Methylethylaldehyde fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Feb 4, 2020 |
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Feb 4, 2020 01:57
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also sometimes three or even four tests have been needed to show a positive. i'm sure many infected people have been sent home with unspecified viral pneumonia after testing negative
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Feb 4, 2020 02:02
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I wouldn’t be surprised if a majority of the Wuhan hospital staff become symptomatic within the next week. It boggles the mind to believe someone could marinate in that environment for so long and NOT get infected, even with masks, gloves and shields.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:12
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Golli posted:I wouldn’t be surprised if a majority of the Wuhan hospital staff become symptomatic within the next week. Meh, i'm in a family of 6 and one of us can get launching fluids from both ends and no one else gets it. disinfect, wash everything after, and just common sense can go a long way
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Feb 4, 2020 02:16
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Methylethylaldehyde posted:They straight up said they can only process about 2k tests per day. Several studies have basically said 'yeah, it's probably like 75k, but we can't prove it. Yet.' Between the no symptoms communicability of this, long incubation period, plus the severe respiratory issues that result from it, this is gonna get way worse before it gets better. Ebola on the other hand, doesn't have nearly the incubation period, and the communicability of it once you know it's there is super low, as basic quarantine and hygiene are able to contain it easily enough. I guess the positive read on all this is presuming we're all going to catch this sooner or later there's probably a good chance it's less deadly than the numbers are showing.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:19
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ma i married a tuna posted:So after several days of large, but roughly linear increases I'm wondering whether that means something in terms of containment. I remember in 2014 Ebola something similar happened - when people were initially were very concerned about exponential increase, and attributed the increase to limitations of measurement rather than an actual picture. I would guess that testing capacity increase in Wuhan is a big priority, so if we're not seeing bigger numbers day by day it is possible the containment has some effect. the testing kit is locked in a safe and we have to wait for the state minister to arrive to open it
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Feb 4, 2020 02:24
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Pick posted:lmao cruising
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Feb 4, 2020 02:25
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Chrs posted:What do you think it’ll be like for the average adult? If reports from China are accurate then it's just going to be lovely flu symptoms for most adults. But some massive fraction, probably more than 10% and almost certainly more than 1%, will still wind up in critical condition or dead. That's a huge and worrying number
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Feb 4, 2020 02:31
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Rinkles posted:jesus, the way they all look like they're shrieking even after death Bat Country Buffet
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Feb 4, 2020 02:33
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just discussed with SO, if one of our kids gets this thing only one parent can care for him/her so the other can live and take care of the rest
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Feb 4, 2020 02:34
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Mnoba posted:just discussed with SO, if one of our kids gets this thing only one parent can care for him/her so the other can live and take care of the rest Joke's on you, it's not infecting kids at all 
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Feb 4, 2020 02:40
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JFC Mnoba has kids.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:43
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that person fucks!
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Feb 4, 2020 02:44
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Mnoba posted:just discussed with SO, if one of our kids gets this thing only one parent can care for him/her so the other can live and take care of the rest Did you draw straws
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Feb 4, 2020 02:47
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Woodchip posted:that person fucks! Well now you're making some big assumptions.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:03
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My flights between Hong Kong and the US were cancelled. I was going to stock up on masks while I was there. And I guess see family or whatever, but my masks 
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Feb 4, 2020 03:06
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bones 4 beginners posted:My flights between Hong Kong and the US were cancelled. I was going to stock up on masks while I was there. And I guess see family or whatever, but my masks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2Z1yLO9C-Q
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Feb 4, 2020 03:11
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RandomBlue posted:JFC Mnoba has kids. leave my dad alone
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Feb 4, 2020 03:13
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Ordered a ThinkPad at the end of December. Was supposed to ship 29 Jan and arrive 5 Feb. Got an email last Friday explaining that, "due to extraordinary circumstances," my laptop has been delayed by 1-3 weeks. Pretty sure my laptop is sitting forlorn in a now abandoned Chinese factory. Outside, the few survivors envy the dead.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:25
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QuarkJets posted:The rampant, proven trend of people downplaying this pandemic is actively harmful to containment efforts, and lovely tone policing like yours doesn't help, either. gently caress off. This is a serious problem that we're talking about You're right we should listen to you more carefully since you source all of your data from only the finest wikipedia articles and Twitter accounts. Also your degree in ??? and years of doing ??? put you in a strong position to accurately and intelligently preach to the masses about this virus. Nobody's policing anything, you can wax philosophical about how all of your intellectual lessers fail to extrapolate and I can point and laugh at you about it. We can both be happy here as we wait for death.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:33
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Cugel the Clever posted:Ordered a ThinkPad at the end of December. Was supposed to ship 29 Jan and arrive 5 Feb. Got an email last Friday explaining that, "due to extraordinary circumstances," my laptop has been delayed by 1-3 weeks. Order a few cases of water and ammunition instead.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:47
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Lambert posted:Regarding your original posting: Really makes you think That has been precisely my point. I've not been the one claiming it's far worse than it is and highly likely to cause mass death. As I said earlier in the thread, it's not 1918 anymore and it's highly unlikely that any virus emerging in the modern era could achieve even a 10th of what the Spanish Flu did. And this one certainly doesn't seem likely to. Still I made it about an hour into my two week thread posting embargo. Pretty good going.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:49
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QuarkJets posted:If reports from China are accurate then it's just going to be lovely flu symptoms for most adults. But some massive fraction, probably more than 10% and almost certainly more than 1%, will still wind up in critical condition or dead. That's a huge and worrying number source? I'm seeing the "less than 3%" number estimation still.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:53
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Methylethylaldehyde posted:They straight up said they can only process about 2k tests per day. Several studies have basically said 'yeah, it's probably like 75k, but we can't prove it. Yet.' Between the no symptoms communicability of this, long incubation period, plus the severe respiratory issues that result from it, this is gonna get way worse before it gets better. Ebola on the other hand, doesn't have nearly the incubation period, and the communicability of it once you know it's there is super low, as basic quarantine and hygiene are able to contain it easily enough. Where did you hear only around 2k tests were processed? I've also heard several of the points you raise - lacking test availability, multiple tests needed, people turned away at hospitals, undercounting because of comorbitity, and several studies guessing at the true number of infected. Even with all those facts in place I would expect testing ability to increase as the response to the virus keeps getting scaled up. Especially outside Wuhan, where health systems are less overwhelmed, I would expect that health workers know that containment is a much more realistic prospect with fast and thorough testing. Asymptomatic transmission is still a bit of a question mark, as far as I heard (although fecal-oral is likely, adding the "waterborne" checkmark) I also think that the incentive to under-report was much stronger in the previous weeks. By now, areas that are affected but not overwhelmed might realize that they WILL get supplies and aid in response to their needs.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:56
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ma i married a tuna posted:fecal-oral is likely Is there some Chinese custom I'm not aware of or is it just a common transmission vector for that kind of virus ?
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Feb 4, 2020 04:21
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That's a good tagline for 2020 in general
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Feb 4, 2020 04:21
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unpacked robinhood posted:Is there some Chinese custom I'm not aware of or is it just a common transmission vector for that kind of virus ? It's generational, not specifically Chinese. It's called the "millennial hello".
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Feb 4, 2020 04:31
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unpacked robinhood posted:Is there some Chinese custom I'm not aware of or is it just a common transmission vector for that kind of virus ? The latter. It's a term for a specific disease profile having some basis in touch-a the poo poo. Cholera is the most famous but pink eye and a bunch of pedestrian stuff are in there too. Basically, wash your hands every time you come in from a public space.
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Feb 4, 2020 04:41
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doctorfrog posted:source? I'm seeing the "less than 3%" number estimation still. The BNO estimates, which come with their own sources, place the mortality rate at less than 3%, but mortality + critical condition is larger than that
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Feb 4, 2020 04:48
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QuarkJets posted:The BNO estimates, which come with their own sources, place the mortality rate at less than 3%, but mortality + critical condition is larger than that link please
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Feb 4, 2020 04:55
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doctorfrog posted:link please The BNO running tally, which links to all of the other analysis, gets posted here practically every other page. Here: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
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Feb 4, 2020 05:10
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What happened to that Chinese doctor that called out the PRC honchos a few days ago to "serve the people" or whatever stupid platitude the PRC always blather about. He was going to send all the health pros home for a day of rest and let the He's with the book sellers now, isn't he?
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Feb 4, 2020 05:15
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BTW, where's the Grand Exalted Emperor Pooh been lately?
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Feb 4, 2020 05:16
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QuarkJets posted:The BNO running tally, which links to all of the other analysis, gets posted here practically every other page. Here: yeah, that's what I found also. Just wondered where you got the estimates about "probably more than 10% and almost certainly more than 1%, will still wind up in critical condition or dead," since I haven't seen those.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:19
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doctorfrog posted:yeah, that's what I found also. Just wondered where you got the estimates about "probably more than 10% and almost certainly more than 1%, will still wind up in critical condition or dead," since I haven't seen those. It comes from those numbers. If you look at Hubei the number of people in serious condition or worse is close to 20%; I rounded down to the nearest order of magnitude
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Feb 4, 2020 05:24
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doctorfrog posted:yeah, that's what I found also. Just wondered where you got the estimates about "probably more than 10% and almost certainly more than 1%, will still wind up in critical condition or dead," since I haven't seen those. quote:As of 24:00 on January 28, 2020, Hubei Province has cumulatively reported 3554 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection (including 1905 cases in Wuhan City, 86 cases in Huangshi City, 88 cases in Shiyan City, 131 cases in Xiangyang City, 63 cases in Yichang City, 101 cases in Jingzhou City, 142 cases in Jingmen City, 84 cases in Ezhou City, 274 cases in Xiaogan City, 324 cases in Huanggang City, 112 cases in Xianning City, 116 cases in Suizhou City, 51 cases in Enshi Prefecture, 32 cases in Xiantao City, 34 cases in Tianmen City, There were 8 cases in Qianjiang and 3 cases in Shennongjia Forest District. 80 cases were cured and 125 died (including 104 cases in Wuhan, 1 in Huangshi City, 1 in Yichang City, 2 in Jingzhou City, 4 in Jingmen City, and Ezhou City). 1 case, 3 in Xiaogan, 5 in Huanggang City, 3 in Tianmen, and 1 in Qianjiang). At present, 3349 patients are still being treated in the hospital, of which 671 are seriously ill and 228 are critically ill, and they are all receiving isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. A total of 22,095 close contacts have been tracked, and 20,366 people are still under medical observation. Estimates were 5,800 cases at that time, having 900 out of 5,800 people (15%) needing to hospitalized is insane--there isn't capacity for it. Lots of people are going to die who would have otherwise lived if everything wasn't so slammed and overflowing, especially once it hits big on NYC/DC/London/Toyko metros and stuff like that. Again the only silver lining is that are a lot more cases going on than what's report so it's probably not that bad, but even if it's 3x those numbers still puts ~5% rate for hospitalization which is loving huge.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:31
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Thank you for the explanation, it's both weird to me that this isn't being discussed more in the media that I've seen/heard and that it's often nowhere near "frontpage news."
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Feb 4, 2020 05:41
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This is heart-wrenchingly awful: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/eyifpf/people_outside_the_statistics_they_died_of/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
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Feb 4, 2020 06:03
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I feel like it's just a matter of time before it spreads in the US and that terrifies me. I'm especially scared for my 2 year old who has had some abnormally rough colds and has already gotten walking pneumonia once.
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Feb 4, 2020 06:17
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Illuminti posted:That has been precisely my point. I've not been the one claiming it's far worse than it is and highly likely to cause mass death. As I said earlier in the thread, it's not 1918 anymore and it's highly unlikely that any virus emerging in the modern era could achieve even a 10th of what the Spanish Flu did. And this one certainly doesn't seem likely to. Stay, its ok
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Feb 4, 2020 06:21
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