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Jewel Repetition posted:I still believe Bernie will win the SDEs  I threw  on Bernie Yes in Iowa when he was at 20 cents because the satellite caucuses are apparently a 50 SDE pickup for Bernie and they haven't been counted yet. Plus he still has regular results to come in from the areas where he's doing best.https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1224874452086816773 https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1224875175352717312
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Feb 5, 2020 16:06
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Merlot Brougham posted:The predictit rules say It is based on state delegate equivalent count which goes down to the tenths or hundredths decimal. The market will not be determined by alphabetical order. Hold on fellas, let's get out our lawyer glasses: Created On: 12/10/2019 4:13 PM (ET) Note that the rule has been updated to include PredictIt's standard tiebreaker language. Note also that the phrase “share of apportioned delegates” refers to the number of delegates awarded to a candidate pursuant to the State Delegate Equivalency number that will be published once the caucus results are calculated, according to the Iowa Democratic Party. [1/22/20: In further response to trader inquiry, this refers to the number of state delegates awarded to a candidate pursuant to the State Delegate Equivalency number that is published once the caucus results are calculated.] This still doesn't make sense to me, this COULD be meant to be saying that it's based on the number of "STATE" delegates awarded, which is DETERMINED by the number of SDEs, NOT that the number of SDEs is the number that is being used to determine who won.
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Feb 6, 2020 00:51
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where have you all been getting your most recent delegate count update information in regards to this iowa caucas ? please tell me lol. where does the data come in from? who usually gets it first? how are delegate counts released from the iowa dnc? do they go straight to everyone in a press speaking room?
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Feb 6, 2020 06:36
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market just flipped again 
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Feb 6, 2020 06:38
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so the "needle" didnt take into account satellite caucus (im assuming thats out of state voters?) how long were these not accounted for? all the way up until now? "The needle has been suspended to evaluate how it is processing the results of satellite caucuses." precincts report vote totals for that church,gymnasium,voting area, correct? and when a precinct reports in, its saying how many votes they had? how does that translate into delegates? kneelbeforezog has issued a correction as of 06:57 on Feb 6, 2020 |
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Feb 6, 2020 06:42
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i got filled at 80 cents on the bern dog, woo
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Feb 6, 2020 07:17
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ScrubLeague posted:i got filled at 80 cents on the bern dog, woo EDIT: btw political gambling when you're in the middle of constant extreme fevers and poo poo is one helluva wild ride but i do not recommend it The Joe Man has issued a correction as of 07:26 on Feb 6, 2020 |
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Feb 6, 2020 07:22
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i was only in for like 6 bucks (15 in the mid 40s) so turning that to 11 was pretty tight
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Feb 6, 2020 07:37
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I seen the needle and the damage done I lost 500 dollars to someone whoo... beeeetttt betterrr thannn I doneeee
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Feb 6, 2020 08:42
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i got burned today but hopefully we also get berned tomorrow
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Feb 6, 2020 08:43
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I put in $20 when it flipped for Pete and got cheap Bernie Yes, now I'm just hodling cause Bernie Won Iowa motherfuckers you should have listened to Jeb! you should have clapped..
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Feb 6, 2020 08:47
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kneelbeforezog posted:so the "needle" didnt take into account satellite caucus (im assuming thats out of state voters?) how long were these not accounted for? all the way up until now? Satellite caucuses were small caucuses in Iowa new this year that Bernie got implement because of the ratfucking he took in 2016 so he dominated them this year and turnout there was larger than expected and all Bernie! Surprisingly caucuses were not traditionally located where poor people live. Imagine that a government run by the rich for the rich.
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Feb 6, 2020 14:18
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New Hampshire seems like it should be higher than 80c yes Bernie / no buttigieg
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Feb 6, 2020 16:57
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I made money but am still mad, got 1800 Bernie shares in the 7 to 10 cent range and chickened out at 22 cents before the latest results came in. Could have made huge profits by holding just a few hours longer.
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Feb 6, 2020 17:28
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i'm still of the opinion that predictit tosses iowa but i did throw bernie $20 when ryan grim started talking about the satellites coming in and made $40 profit so far
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Feb 6, 2020 17:44
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Welp, I am 100% done with the Iowa market, don't care what potential gains could be had this is too hosed up for my blood. I'm dumping some cash into a safe NH win for Bernie and putting some in for a second place finish for Biden since its cheap right now. After Iowa I don't know if he'll get even that but I'm sure it'll swing somewhere along the way
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Feb 6, 2020 18:46
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Garrand posted:Welp, I am 100% done with the Iowa market, don't care what potential gains could be had this is too hosed up for my blood. Same. People aren't even pumping and dumping anymore, it's literally a coin flip.
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Feb 6, 2020 21:09
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Jeeeeesus
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Feb 7, 2020 03:06
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Mother fuckers
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Feb 7, 2020 03:11
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This is a dark day for hucksters, cardsharps, and rascals
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Feb 7, 2020 03:13
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That Iowa market is going to sit open for weeks now. It'll be funny when the "will Iowa winner also win NH?" market can't close after NH because the Iowa market is still open
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Feb 7, 2020 03:25
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Jewel Repetition posted:Mother fuckers Jewel Repetition posted:This is a dark day for hucksters, cardsharps, and rascals Jeb!  You were supposed to fix it! I clapped!
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Feb 7, 2020 03:28
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Someone just bought my Biden shares for Iowa? I had bought them for a penny on Tuesday just fir shits, not sure why someone would bother to by them now. Now to use that 4 dollars to go back in on bernie
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Feb 7, 2020 03:30
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WampaLord posted:Jeb! In the end, Pete was the one who fixed it
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Feb 7, 2020 03:31
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Jewel Repetition posted:In the end, Pete was the one who fixed it lmao  Thankfully the rest of my markets are looking good  The top two are all Bernie Yes and the SC one is a mix of Bernie Yes and Biden No (Biden No in SC is literally free money imo)
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Feb 7, 2020 03:33
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the iowa one should actually close at noon CST tomorrow because thats the deadline for candidates asking for a recount
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Feb 7, 2020 03:37
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https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1225615790143164418
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Feb 7, 2020 04:14
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What a time to be alive.
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Feb 7, 2020 04:16
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$.20 seems like a tempting enough price for a coin flip in iowa right now. In for an extremely rich $2.00.
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Feb 7, 2020 08:34
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https://gyazo.com/796151c7799c7fcbf10252021648965b a comment in the Iowa caucus section. does anyone else here look up residents to call lol? who reports these results to the media anyway, the IDC? is perez doing a re-caucus or isnt he?
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Feb 7, 2020 08:50
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I believe the rules say the IDP report of the results is determinative, though who knows what counts as their results. It is clearly not their announcement of 100% of the results being tabulated today, because the market has not resolved. I regard it as something of a coin toss primarily because of the coverage of people like @taniel, who has aggregated a lot of the inconsistencies in the precinct results released by the IDP. Given the 1.5 SDE margin between Butt and Bernie, it seems like this is closer than an 80:20 proposition, which is where it is currently trading. Otherwise, getting in on Bernie in other markets where Biden is still not dead on the rationale that at least Biden will do poorly in New Hampshire and that will hopefully discount him further in those markets to Bernie's benefit. But I'm hunting like $.08 swings there, not $.60 home runs. and lol, just lol, if youre not calling people in nursing homes for some insider info on caucus turnout, are you even trying to make money
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Feb 7, 2020 09:45
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Holding $400 worth of Bernie YES to win NH because it’s a lay up. Wish I had more to bet against the long shots like Warren, Biden and others. I’m also trying to get fully vested in anything Bloomberg is on for NO because I legitimately believe he will never win a single delegate.
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Feb 7, 2020 09:49
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Betting on no uses of the word "Iowa" at the debate seems kind of like betting on a tipoff Uncut Gems style but what the hell, I'll throw a few bucks in for funsies.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:59
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It just keeps swinging, every time I decide to stay in it tanks, only to rise to a profit 8 hours later.
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Feb 7, 2020 19:39
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I sold my remaining shares at a loss and am out of iowa with only $200 up, this poo poo is too crazy.
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Feb 7, 2020 19:55
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oWpXB-dRAA
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Feb 7, 2020 20:12
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Tunicate posted:I sold my remaining shares at a loss and am out of iowa with only $200 up, this poo poo is too crazy. I sold about 1/2 at a lost then want home for lunch (maybe 20 minutes later) checked and sold the other half for a profit. Sadly I'm still down overall but eventually I'll be good
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Feb 7, 2020 20:30
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Legit thinking about putting money on my credit card to go for Bloomberg NO in a bunch of places. Like, he’s at 10% in Oregon. Are you loving kidding me.
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Feb 7, 2020 21:26
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the predictit rules dont say the market will settle based on who the math says will have the most SDEs but rather who the iowa democratic party declares has the most SDEs
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Feb 7, 2020 21:29
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Shear Modulus posted:the predictit rules dont say the market will settle based on who the math says will have the most SDEs but rather who the iowa democratic party declares has the most SDEs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oWpXB-dRAA
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Feb 7, 2020 21:30
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