Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > Coronavirus 2021: I Threw Up On My Sheep

Dr Kool-AIDS: Mar 26, 2004

Sound posted:

What would happen if a rumor was started that surviving corona virus made you dick much bigger and let you gently caress for hours? Corona virus dick pills? Ground up corona bodies from the morgue to make tea? Small bags of phlegm from infected people to use like a balm?

Sign me up!!!

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:10

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:23

UnknownTarget: Sep 5, 2019

Philonius posted:

On second inspection, you're right. I had picked two random years to check and those happened to be high too, but looking at all data ILI levels are through the roof right now. Might still be unrelated to coronavirus though.

Just quoting so it doesn't look like you're responding to nothing, originally I said "All the previous years had low amounts" but if you pick a different year it doesn't take you to the same spot on that year. It takes you to the end - so I looked at a bunch of different years and they were all green, because they were showing September data.

Scrolling through the weeks though and even though it seems elevated now it seems like it's mostly red around this time of year every year.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:10

Jamsta: Dec 16, 2006; Oh you want some too? Fuck you!

Gearhead posted:

This heat map is concerning. We're getting more people in hospitals for ILI than for the flu.

Drag the slider back and forth and watch the infection spread from Louisiana out to the rest of the country

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:10

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

Philonius posted:

I don't see huge differences between the ILI heatmaps for previous years though. Usually around this time most states are in the red.

I'm trying to find the charts the map draws from. They hit red and kept going.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:11

Sjs00: Jun 29, 2013; Yeah Baby Yeah !

I hope I get sick and die for science

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:17

salt shakeup: Jun 27, 2004; 'orrible fucking nights

Ugly In The Morning posted:

The R0 of this is not 1, it's somewhere in the 2.5+ range. This means that, typically, one sick person will get 2.5 or more other people sick. Those people will each get 2.5 more people sick, and so on. That means the "new cases" number should not be going up by a steady amount each day like it has been, the number of new cases should be getting much larger every day, as an exponential function- they're not even doing a good job of fudging the numbers. Blatantly fudging the numbers like that is more worrisome than just releasing a report that says "WE'RE hosed, BURY ME!" IMO.

R0 is an estimate based on observations. We aren't seeing exponential growth outside China, is the entire world just bad at "fudging the numbers?"

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:24

coronavirus: Jan 27, 2020; by Cyrano4747

Psycho Society posted:

The US can't even fund its own government with regularity, not to mention provide healthcare or housing for its own people and somehow rediscovered measles with more wealth and resources than most of the rest of the world

we were totally ok with breaking China's own quarantine to get a handful of besieged elites out of Wuhan and initially the plan was to keep an eye on them for "a few days".

you definitely should not have anything to say about a country your own government has been targeting as one of a handful of places refusing to bend the knee to US imperialism

yes i agree. because america is a bad country that means china should totally start a plague on purpose.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:24

Gearhead: Feb 13, 2007; The Metroid of Humor

salt shakeup posted:

R0 is an estimate based on observations. We aren't seeing exponential growth outside China, is the entire world just bad at "fudging the numbers?"

We're not actually sure about R0 outside of China yet because we haven't completed our own observations. In about a week all those folks that got quarantined are going to hit the 14 day mark, and we're going to learn a fair bit then. I'm hoping and praying that the Chinese R0 is jacked up because of systemic poor sanitation, rampant denial and being packed in like sardines, because the alternative is horrifying.

As things are, the world is looking at a possible recession unless this can be brought under control soon, the length of it will depend on how long it continues to burn, simply because manufacturing is going to run out of materials.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:30

Spazzle: Jul 5, 2003

salt shakeup posted:

R0 is an estimate based on observations. We aren't seeing exponential growth outside China, is the entire world just bad at "fudging the numbers?"

R0 is going to vary from place to place based on the local environment, population health, and cultural practices of how people interact and deal with the sick.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:32

PIZZA.BAT: Nov 12, 2016

salt shakeup posted:

R0 is an estimate based on observations. We aren't seeing exponential growth outside China, is the entire world just bad at "fudging the numbers?"

first off this is geometric growth- not exponential. second off the whole thing with geometric growth is that it starts off extremely slow but increases its rate of growth over time. seeing as we just saw our first infections just a few weeks ago we�re still several months behind China.

if we�ve been able to successfully quarantine all the infected then we shouldn�t see any additional infections pop up over the next few weeks. if the virus is loose then we�re still only going to see a handful of new infections at first- but at that point it�ll be too late. we�ll follow roughly the same trajectory that China has

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:56

UnknownTarget: Sep 5, 2019

Gearhead posted:

We're not actually sure about R0 outside of China yet because we haven't completed our own observations. In about a week all those folks that got quarantined are going to hit the 14 day mark, and we're going to learn a fair bit then. I'm hoping and praying that the Chinese R0 is jacked up because of systemic poor sanitation, rampant denial and being packed in like sardines, because the alternative is horrifying.

As things are, the world is looking at a possible recession unless this can be brought under control soon, the length of it will depend on how long it continues to burn, simply because manufacturing is going to run out of materials.

Over/under on recession? I know China is delaying a lot of their people returning to work, though some places are open according to this article.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048780/china-goes-back-work-after-lunar-new-year-will-coronavirus

# ? Feb 6, 2020 17:58

Bip Roberts: Mar 29, 2005

gently caress with the Xi, get the disease

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:00

Rat: Dec 12, 2006; meow

My company issued a directive that business travel to China is prohibited. And a work from home quarantine policy for people who have recently traveled to China or had contact with recent travelers

My co-worker in Thailand may end up in work from home quarantine when she's back

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:02

Shaocaholica: Oct 29, 2002; Fig. 5E

Imagine how many people will want to gently caress you if you survive the virus and thus have super anti bodies inside your goo.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:13

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

But but but one of the major causes of the Renaissance was the population shortage after the black death.

Looking forward to explosion of remote collaboration/driverless technologies after 2020.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:14

WorldsStongestNerd: Apr 28, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

I think this one is weird in that survivors can get reinfected. I guess this gos until they make the vaccine.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:16

Spazzle: Jul 5, 2003

PIZZA.BAT posted:

first off this is geometric growth- not exponential. second off the whole thing with geometric growth is that it starts off extremely slow but increases its rate of growth over time. seeing as we just saw our first infections just a few weeks ago we’re still several months behind China.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:18

Play: Apr 25, 2006; Strong stroll for a mangy stray

doctorfrog posted:

To be clear, this is not a directive to underreport numbers, just an overall secret policy to be more cheery/less blamey about the whole thing.

That amounts to the same thing my man: inaccurate numbers, ineffective policies, and lack of true information

Charlz Guybon posted:

Deaths increased. That's actually slightly less the number of new cases there yesterday.

Has growth plateaued or are they just struggling to test more than 3,000 in Hubei?

probably the second thing more than the first

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:30

Son of Rodney: Feb 22, 2006; ohmygodohmygodohmygod

WorldsStongestNerd posted:

I think this one is weird in that survivors can get reinfected. I guess this gos until they make the vaccine.

uh wouldn't that kinda mean that slowly everybody would die?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:41

gary oldmans diary: Sep 26, 2005

EimiYoshikawa posted:

I'm pretty sure that diseases, by definition, don't tend to spread by neat additions of 2,000 to 3,000 cases per day, generally.

So...yeah.

from my point of view, concordantly, however, your dictionary is, perhaps, dumb as hell, if i may be so bold, summarily

i mean. or whatever

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:46

Tei: Feb 19, 2011

I hated to be near people before it was cool

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:53

Nurge: Feb 4, 2009; by Reene; Fun Shoe

Tei posted:

I hated to be near people before it was cool

A likely story Mr. Rat. Remember the middle ages? HUH?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 18:57

Ornamental Dingbat: Feb 26, 2007

My job just transitioned me from 50% travel to 100% wfh back-office support. I really don't mind not having to go through 20 airports a year all of the sudden.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:08

mitztronic: Jun 17, 2005; mixcloud.com/mitztronic

PIZZA.BAT posted:

first off this is geometric growth- not exponential. second off the whole thing with geometric growth is that it starts off extremely slow but increases its rate of growth over time. seeing as we just saw our first infections just a few weeks ago we�re still several months behind China.

Why did you feel compelled to post false information?

For anyone actually wondering about actual non-made up growth predictions, this guy has been doing a great job updating models:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/eyt3z3/oc_feb_04_update_on_timelapse_of_confirmed_wuhan/

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:14

Shaocaholica: Oct 29, 2002; Fig. 5E

stephenthinkpad posted:

But but but one of the major causes of the Renaissance was the population shortage after the black death.

Looking forward to explosion of remote collaboration/driverless technologies after 2020.

Tiktok renaissance

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:18

WorldsStongestNerd: Apr 28, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

Son of Rodney posted:

uh wouldn't that kinda mean that slowly everybody would die?

No not anymore than what happens when the flu mutates slightly and you catch a different strain.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:38

William Henry Hairytaint: Oct 29, 2011

Tei posted:

I hated to be near people before it was cool

I hear you brother :respek:

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:50

gary oldmans diary: Sep 26, 2005

of course youre gonna believe there are fewer than 1 billion cases of wuhan flu if you believe everything the world government tells you

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:53

Son of Rodney: Feb 22, 2006; ohmygodohmygodohmygod

China is dead, the only reports are internet police bots still posting propaganda.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:56

a mysterious cloak: Apr 5, 2003; Leave me alone, dad, I'm with my friends!

Where's the Iraqi Minister of Information when you need him

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:57

William Henry Hairytaint: Oct 29, 2011

Son of Rodney posted:

China is dead, the only reports are internet police bots still posting propaganda.

Drones yelling at corpses to put masks on is some black comedy poo poo for sure.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 19:58

Computer Serf: May 14, 2005; Buglord

coronavirus posted:

yes i agree. because america is a bad country that means china should totally start a plague on purpose.

There�s been extremely livid netizens pissed in the comments sections calling for that �to see how western countries respond�

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:28

rifles: Oct 8, 2007; is this thing working

Housemate here on a major campus is going to a walk-in clinic for major flu-like symptoms today rip me

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:35

Shaocaholica: Oct 29, 2002; Fig. 5E

Computer Serf posted:

There�s been extremely livid netizens pissed in the comments sections calling for that �to see how western countries respond�

They're not wrong and Thanos was right.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:38

PIZZA.BAT: Nov 12, 2016

mitztronic posted:

Why did you feel compelled to post false information?

For anyone actually wondering about actual non-made up growth predictions, this guy has been doing a great job updating models:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/eyt3z3/oc_feb_04_update_on_timelapse_of_confirmed_wuhan/

quote:

TLDR: Do NOT panic, this plot is meant to be beautiful and maybe increase interest and no one should use it to predict the future of humanity. Use the research provided instead. Or maybe look at this NY Times article for some more facts about the outbreka

DISCLAIMER: To start off, this fit is very complicated and the animation should not be taken as a serious attempt to model the spread of nCoV-2019. The exponential model renders the virus�s growth infinite, while obviously the world�s population is indeed finite and the growth would slow down as the virus reaches its spread limit. Nevertheless I found the fit very compelling but strongly advise everyone not to make �sciency� conclusions based on my fit, because that�s not his purpose. To cite u/desfirsit

yeah dude definitely

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:47

Mozi: Apr 4, 2004; Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die; Nap Ghost

Here is an actual model https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

They estimated ~75000 infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, which more or less is in line with US health official claims that there are around 100k infected in China.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:54

QuarkJets: Sep 8, 2008

Der Shovel posted:

Not to argue, but generally out of a desire to know more and understand better:

Why not?

China's official tally is only cases that tested positive and we already know that A) they don't have enough test kits for everyone who's been checked in and B) hospitals are turning away most people because they're full. So there's no point in lying about the official tally, it's already understood to be a massive unreliable underestimate
The number could be completely made up, it simply doesn't matter

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:54

i am harry: Oct 14, 2003

I haven�t read this yet but I have a sub so I�ve pasted it all:

quote:

Will the coronavirus become a pandemic - and what happens if it does?

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532683-300-will-the-coronavirus-become-a-pandemic-and-what-happens-if-it-does/

WITH more than 20,000 confirmed cases � and probably far more undiagnosed � the 2019-nCoV coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, seems poised to go global. The epidemic is currently still centred on the province of Hubei, but the virus has travelled to at least 23 countries, and further epidemics seemed possible.
Genetic analysis suggests that the virus isn�t changing much in humans, becoming neither more nor less harmful. So where is the outbreak likely to go from here?
There are three options, says Eric Toner at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. One, viruses new to humans that don�t adapt quickly can simply peter out after they have spread to several successive people, as another coronavirus from animals, MERS, seems to.

But the rocketing number of cases in China mean 2019-nCoV shows no sign of doing this.
Two, we could block transmission of the virus enough for it to die out. One way would be with drugs or vaccines (see �New coronavirus: How soon will a treatment be ready and will it work?�), but it may take a year to develop anything effective. Or we could quarantine infected people and block the virus. That worked for the related SARS virus in 2003, but early signs suggest that it might not be so easy this time.
Global spread

�Options one and two seem unlikely,� says Toner. Instead, the virus may simply spread, like flu does, until most people have been exposed to it and either died or recovered and become immune. Then it may burn out for lack of hosts, or become a disease that mostly affects children who haven�t yet encountered it.
Last year, Toner led a pandemic management exercise in Baltimore, in which industry and health leaders discussed options as a computer model of a pandemic involving a fictional coronavirus played out. After 18 months, the spread of the virus started to slow down, as people either died or became immune. However, by then, the fictional virus had killed 65 million people.
New Scientist Default Image
Toner stresses that the simulation was just that: a model of a hypothetical virus slightly different to 2019-nCoV. But unless the new virus self-destructs or we find ways to stop it, it is likely to follow a similar route, circulating until the pandemic slows.
This is especially bad news for older people and those with pre-existing health conditions. Like SARS, the virus seems to kill by triggering out-of-control inflammation. In China, people with severe cases of the virus are more likely to be older or have chronic inflammatory diseases like diabetes, says Sylvie Briand at the World Health Organization (WHO).
The coronavirus's spread
The full impact of the virus will depend on its death rate, which we don�t yet know (see �The three things we really need to know about the Wuhan coronavirus�). It seems to spread more readily than SARS, making it harder to contain with quarantine.
One problem is that some cases of the new virus are mild. No public health systems are equipped to test everyone with flu-like symptoms, then quarantine all those who have the virus � and everyone they have been in contact with � to prevent spread. However, this is what we would need to do to stop it spreading, says David Heymann at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who organised the WHO�s SARS campaign.
Preparedness plans

In theory, the virus could be largely kept out of other countries and burn out in China. But that would be hard: models show that even testing all travellers at exit and entry would fail to catch 75 per cent of those incubating the virus, says Pasi Penttinen at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Temperature monitoring in airports had no effect on SARS.
It therefore seems likely that the virus will go pandemic, circulating in multiple cities worldwide. �Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases,� Gabriel Leung at Hong Kong University and colleagues wrote in a recent modelling study (The Lancet, doi.org/ggjvr7). �Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.�
�The virus may spread until most people have been exposed to it and either died or recovered�
Countries were supposed to invest in such plans under 2005 WHO rules. But an independent report last year found �severe weaknesses in [countries�] abilities to prevent, detect, and respond to health emergencies�. Fewer than 5 per cent of countries got high marks for their ability to rapidly respond to an epidemic.
Heymann says one lucky break with SARS was that it never invaded a chaotic, impoverished megacity, which would have had particular trouble organising the contact tracing and quarantine required to stop a virus this way.
That break seems unlikely with the Wuhan virus, which has already reached India and the Philippines. The Gates Foundation has earmarked $10 million to fight the virus � half for China, the rest to help African countries prepare. African health agencies will hold a workshop in Senegal this week.
Even if the virus remains largely in China, there would be global consequences. According to Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota and his team, 153 crucial drugs, from blood pressure pills to stroke treatment, are mostly made in China, and there are fears the virus could affect their production and export.
Osterholm is worried about further impacts. So far, he says, �people aren�t saying how bad it can get�.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:56

Bronze Fonz: Feb 14, 2019

Li Wenliang (possibly) not dead.

# ? Feb 6, 2020 20:57

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# ? May 25, 2024 22:23

EAT FASTER!!!!!!: Sep 21, 2002; Legendary.

mitztronic posted:

Why did you feel compelled to post false information?

For anyone actually wondering about actual non-made up growth predictions, this guy has been doing a great job updating models:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/eyt3z3/oc_feb_04_update_on_timelapse_of_confirmed_wuhan/

"Great job updating models" means line fitting relying entirely on the officially released Chinese numbers which are at best absolutely the bare minimum, realistically are at least half an order of magnitude and at worst are more than one orders of magnitude lagging what's actually happening?

Because 20,000 people have a seasonal flu and now Hubei is transporting patients to quarantine ~~camps~~ "hospitals" where they are being allowed to die and the bodies are immediately being incinerated?

People - epidemiologists who are at the top of their fields - are quietly very, very worried about this. Ignoring what the Chinese health authorities are saying, instead watching what they're actually doing, these numbers are being curated and leaked in such a way as to not unleash an absolute tidal wave of panic but health authorities are absolutely freaking out. 50 million citizens under house arrest?

# ? Feb 6, 2020 21:00

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