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Pollyanna posted:You sure about this? People know Iowa was sketch, but we can’t do anything about it. We can choose to not vote or write in Bernie.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:53
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mcmagic posted:Eric Swalwell is on CNN pumping for Bloomberg LOL Can’t believe our first millennial presidential candidate would betray mayor Pete like this.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:54
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Cpt_Obvious posted:If Bernie doesn't devour Pete, Bloomberg will do it for us. I assure you. Unless Bloomberg gets behind Mayo Pete since they are pretty much cut from the same cloth.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:54
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fondue posted:Isn't momentum how Bill Clinton got the nomination? When he started his campaign he was some no-name governor from Arkansas. He lost Iowa and during the New Hampshire campaign his affair with Flowers came out. Despite losing NH he spun the Flowers affair into a prime-time apology and then swept the south. Paul Tsongas had the most momentum going into Super Tuesday if you're going by the metric of winning early states. But the thing is that no one besides Clinton had won any states convincingly through Super Tuesday. Clinton won most of his states by 50%+ of the vote, while Tsongas had been the only other one to do that, with one state. But the problem with Biden trying to do the Clinton thing is that Biden is currently under-performing. Sanders over-performed in Iowa with the demographics that Biden needs in NV and SC. If Sanders takes either of those states from Biden, he won't recover, because he's also not going to trounce anyone on Super Tuesday.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:57
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fondue posted:I imagine this is why Biden thinks Iowa and New Hampshire aren't a big deal; Clinton swept the south and if Biden can do that he can use the momentum to carry him to the nomination. Bill Clinton was an incredible politician who already had a ton of support in the South and a strong logistical operation in 1992. He didn't just magically sweep to victory because of a second place finish in NH, and the whole "comeback kid" deal was brilliant marketing rather than the kind of momentum-effect that anyone in this thread is talking about. Pete is... not a brilliant marketer.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:57
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mcmagic posted:Unless Bloomberg gets behind Mayo Pete since they are pretty much scooped from the same jar
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Feb 7, 2020 16:57
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mcmagic posted:Trump didn't have any campaign apparatus. You can win through the media pumping you. The media was not pumping Trump during the primaries. At all. The GOP was still very much knives out at him.
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Feb 7, 2020 16:59
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Paradoxish posted:Bill Clinton was an incredible politician who already had a ton of support in the South and a strong logistical operation in 1992. He didn't just magically sweep to victory because of a second place finish in NH, and the whole "comeback kid" deal was brilliant marketing rather than the kind of momentum-effect that anyone in this thread is talking about. Pete is... not a brilliant marketer. It's loving sickening but the fact that a guy with literally no political accomplishments or platform could be neck and neck with the Bernie movement in IA that has been all over the state for 2 years is pretty impressive.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:00
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mcmagic posted:It's loving sickening but the fact that a guy with literally no political accomplishments or platform could be neck and neck with the Bernie movement in IA that has been all over the state for 2 years is pretty impressive. Pete also put quite a most of his chips in the Iowa basket, and the demographic makeup was already in his favor.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:02
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For the people freaking out over the Suffolk poll that had Bernie only 1 point up on Pete, Suffolk was the 2nd least accurate pollster in Iowa: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225763659391086595 And their last poll for Iowa had Biden 25, Sanders 19, Pete 18 As for the Bill Clinton comparisons, Bill Clinton was the governor of Arkansas running against the former governor of CA and senator of MA. He lost Iowa to Tom Harkin, the senator from Iowa, and was a close second to Tsongas (the senator of MA) in NH. He then proceeded to win every single southern state. Any comparisons to Buttigieg or Biden are preposterous.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:07
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mcmagic posted:It's loving sickening but the fact that a guy with literally no political accomplishments or platform could be neck and neck with the Bernie movement in IA that has been all over the state for 2 years is pretty impressive. He's literally being buoyed by the Deep State, dude. He has huge connections.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:07
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mcmagic posted:Unless Bloomberg gets behind Mayo Pete since they are pretty much cut from the same cloth. My dude, Bloomberg has spent almost half a billion dollars on ads that say "Vote for Bloomberg" in all 14 Super Tuesday states. And ads loving work. So half the cheese-brains are going to vote Pete because CNN says so, and half are going to vote Bloomberg because Bloomberg said so. It is way too loving late to turn this boat around. Here's the reality: I'd say there is a more than even chance of bringing this to a contested convention. Will the democrats rat-gently caress Bernie there? Maybe. Maybe they'll try and fail. Again. But there's so many more things we as a people can do to take the power back, specifically a general strike. If Bernie Sanders gets on the mic and tells us that we all need to strike, I bet about 1 in 10 people would do that for as long as possible. If the democratic party fucks him again, we will have the popular support, the will of the people to act outside of the electoral system and take the power back from the plutocrats. But let's cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, here's the most portentous band in modern history shutting down the stock exchange with nothing but music and Michael Moore's camera crew: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl4wkIPiTcY
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Feb 7, 2020 17:08
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Demiurge4 posted:loving lmao. (Read the thread) Hail Satan 
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Feb 7, 2020 17:11
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Most people who would vote for the last guy they saw on television are not going to vote.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:11
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Halloween Jack posted:Most people who would vote for the last guy they saw on television are not going to vote. Olds go out and vote because there is nothing else to do
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Feb 7, 2020 17:13
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This tracks with Dem gains in educated, suburban districts in 2018. It bodes well for the centrists, who have performed well in those districts. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1225806317740285952
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Feb 7, 2020 17:17
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I'm not worried about the lack of huge youth boost in Iowa at all. It's an archaic process designed to shut out Sanders' base. If you're crowing about a 16% participation rate that goes up or down a fraction of a percent, the system's hosed.oxsnard posted:Olds go out and vote because there is nothing else to do I'm more worried about outright fraud in the primaries than I am by anyone "legitimately" beating out Sanders.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:20
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mcmagic posted:It's loving sickening but the fact that a guy with literally no political accomplishments or platform could be neck and neck with the Bernie movement in IA that has been all over the state for 2 years is pretty impressive. White voters are dumbasses.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:24
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Demiurge4 posted:loving lmao. (Read the thread) The dem establishment is easily stupider then all the idiots the Goonswarm rolled on its way up. I reckon Mittens may well be able to well and truly gently caress with them in Winsconsin, in either primary or general.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:26
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StratGoatCom posted:The dem establishment is easily stupider then all the idiots the Goonswarm rolled on its way up. I reckon Mittens may well be able to well and truly gently caress with them in Winsconsin, in either primary or general. this is the crossover content i'm here for just let me know when to cut the power to the titan pilot's home
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Feb 7, 2020 17:29
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fondue posted:Isn't momentum how Bill Clinton got the nomination? When he started his campaign he was some no-name governor from Arkansas. He lost Iowa and during the New Hampshire campaign his affair with Flowers came out. Despite losing NH he spun the Flowers affair into a prime-time apology and then swept the south. Didn't he sweep the South because he was a southern governor who wasn't above pandering to Dixiecrat racists that wanted to go back to being the party of George Wallace? Not sure there are enough of those people left in the southern Democratic Party for that to work again, even though that's Buttigieg's lane with all that "I don't want your vote" "black people are homophobes" stuff. Buttigieg will have to rig it like he did Iowa.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:29
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225817466045190145 This is an interesting dynamic looming in the race, because I think it is pretty likely that Buttigieg, if he had the same familiarity as Biden and Bernie, would poll as the best candidate against Trump. Pete demonstrated some Bernie-type strength in bringing new caucus-goers to the polls, and won like all of the counties in Iowa that went Obama/Obama/Trump.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:30
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Private Witt posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225817466045190145 who gives a gently caress about Iowa lmao
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Feb 7, 2020 17:31
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Pete would get absolutely demolished in the general.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:31
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Pollyanna posted:You sure about this? People know Iowa was sketch, but we can’t do anything about it. I meant that they will definitely lose the general harder than 2016 if they steal the nomination again. I agree that we probably won't stop the theft from happening if they decide to do it. We couldn't stop it in 68 and there is less appetite for direct action now than there was then.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:32
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Groovelord Neato posted:Pete would get absolutely demolished in the general. imagine him debating trump "Patriotism is the promise of future realities tempered by our hope for today" "This man is a rat-faced alfred e neuman freak. it's disgusting looking at him" punishedkissinger fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 17:33
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My theory on Bloomberg and Steyer is that money can buy support, but the kind of support it buys is the Joe Biden "yeah I know that dude" soft-as-poo poo variety. It will hold with a voter absent any other information but will collapse when poo poo gets real and other candidates come to town. I'm looking forward to South Carolina's Steyer surge testing this theory.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:34
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Private Witt posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1225817466045190145
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Feb 7, 2020 17:34
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Has anyone received anything they ordered or were rewarded from Bernie's campaign? I placed an order a couple months ago, and I was meant to be sent a couple sticker rewards, so far received zilch.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:34
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kidkissinger posted:imagine him debating trump If nothing else, this is what it will come down to. Bernie and Bloomberg are the only ones who understand how to actually attack and debate Trump. Butt is gonna try to triangulate and be the "youthful face" and get loving wrecked.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:34
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This is maybe a silly question. I know it's illegal to buy votes directly, but is it illegal to buy endorsements?
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Feb 7, 2020 17:36
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Xombie posted:The media was not pumping Trump during the primaries. They absolutely were what are you talking about. How many times did they play that escalator clip alone.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:36
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:My theory on Bloomberg and Steyer is that money can buy support, but the kind of support it buys is the Joe Biden "yeah I know that dude" soft-as-poo poo variety. It will hold with a voter absent any other information but will collapse when poo poo gets real and other candidates come to town. Has there been any South Carolina polling post-Iowa? I'm curious to see if Biden's collapse is feeding Steyer.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:37
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:This is maybe a silly question. I know it's illegal to buy votes directly, but is it illegal to buy endorsements? Since our courts are dumb as hell you can bribe someone as long as you don't literally say "this is a bribe".
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Feb 7, 2020 17:37
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Internet Explorer posted:just let me know when to cut the power to the titan pilot's home please tell me this is a thing that happened. reading about eve is more fun than playing it.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:37
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Technically the MSM was not boosting Trump, they just gave him a billion dollars worth of free publicity.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:37
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:My theory on Bloomberg and Steyer is that money can buy support, but the kind of support it buys is the Joe Biden "yeah I know that dude" soft-as-poo poo variety. It will hold with a voter absent any other information but will collapse when poo poo gets real and other candidates come to town. This "Yeah I know that dude" variety is identical to the bump that Pete is getting right now. The whole country is wondering who the gently caress he is, being the only candidate anyone really knows now. And Pete's about to get eaten alive on national television tonight.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:38
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Halloween Jack posted:I'm not worried about the lack of huge youth boost in Iowa at all. It's an archaic process designed to shut out Sanders' base. If you're crowing about a 16% participation rate that goes up or down a fraction of a percent, the system's hosed. Well, you shouldn't be worried because there was a huge youth boost: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/06/how-age-gap-iowa-caucuses-shifted-since-2016/ 18-24 was 10% of the participants in 2016, 16% in 2020. 18-49 were 42% of participants in 2016 and 53% in 2020.
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Feb 7, 2020 17:39
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VitalSigns posted:Didn't he sweep the South because he was a southern governor who wasn't above pandering to Dixiecrat racists that wanted to go back to being the party of George Wallace? A significant amount of voters in the south are black. Clinton was extremely popular with them. edit: Here's some stats. In some southern states, black people make up a full third to almost half of the Democratic primary voters. Clinton was getting 75-80% of them. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/1992-bill-clinton-builds-winning-coalition-jackson-diminished-n1029606 Xombie fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 17:40
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Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:This is maybe a silly question. I know it's illegal to buy votes directly, but is it illegal to buy endorsements? Bloomberg basically did this by giving new mayors in big cities money and some bootcamp training thing
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Feb 7, 2020 17:43
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