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Is the debate tonight actually 3 hours starting at 8 or is it an hour of bullshit?
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Feb 7, 2020 21:53
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Gotta love FYIGM labor!!!
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Feb 7, 2020 21:53
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One of the dumbest rear end FYGMisms ever
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Feb 7, 2020 21:54
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nice solidarity
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Feb 7, 2020 21:54
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Rotten Red Rod posted:It doesn't appear to have those numbers, though...? I looked it over and the fractions mentioned in the press release aren't present there. You do the total 2nd round votes for the candidate times the number of delegates awarded by the precinct. Then divide that by the total attendance for the caucus. Round up if it's greater than .5 and round down otherwise. If not all delegates have been allocated yet then you award based on who was closest to .5 but had been round down.
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Feb 7, 2020 21:56
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oxsnard posted:It's telling they didn't endorse Biden. Will they back the butt out of NH? It's more likely they endorse Biden than Butt (for now), but probably they'll just play this lovely little game where they endorse no one while going negative on a particular candidate.
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Feb 7, 2020 21:56
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Also incredible how although there are a million easy as gently caress ways to make a loving web table, the IDP picked one that: 1. Can't display candidates and precinct names at the same time. What's a header? never heard of it. 2. If you copy from it, there are no delimiters. Hope you like manually parsing data. But again, this is just an oopsie doopsie because they're all incompetent grifters that also helps make it easier to rig. Malice is not required.
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Feb 7, 2020 21:57
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A lot of the reason that many Democrats (not all, but many) oppose Bernie is they are convinced that the way to win is to move right to pander to hypothetical swing voters and to get the big corporate donor money that you need to be competitive. They really fear that Bernie will blow up because left-wing ideas aren't popular and without corporate money you can't win. If he tells the donor class to gently caress off, raises millions from ordinary people, and rides grassroots support to the highest office in the land a lot of them are going to bend the knee because their careers depend on it. Especially if his coattails end up expanding the house majority and flipping the senate. Not all Democrats, but enough that you won't see half the caucus defecting to Republicans to oust him. Same thing happened with FDR. FDR won the election and immediately set about building up new constituencies and power centers to support Democrats, and he changed the direction of the party for the next 50 years. The first thing Bernie will do in office is eliminate student debt by executive order. That is 45 million Americans right there who instantly owe their financial security to Bernie Sanders. He's going to legalize weed and expunge the records of hundreds of thousands of people who will now get to vote. He's going to appoint the most pro-union cabinet ever, many Democrats still can't get elected without union support and he's going to strengthen them. He's not going to demobilize the activist base like Obama did, he's going to hold rallies in the home states of wavering senators. They'll try to ratfuck him and steal the nomination, and maybe many of them will try to help Trump, but if he wins enough Democrats will fall in line that he won't be impeached for political reasons. If you're going to drive yourself crazy with paranoia about a hypothetical ouster of a President Sanders, a CIA coup/assassination is far more probable than a senator sacrificing his career for his political convictions. E: I brought up the Grand Bargain earlier, but another good example of Democrats refusing to put their congressional leaders and the donors ahead of their own personal power was the rebellion against voting for TPP in an election year. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 21:58
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VitalSigns posted:Same thing happened with FDR. FDR won the election and immediately set about building up new constituencies and power centers to support Democrats, and he changed the direction of the party for the next 50 years. The first thing Bernie will do in office is eliminate student debt by executive order. That is 45 million Americans right there who instantly owe their financial security to Bernie Sanders. He's going to legalize weed and expunge the records of hundreds of thousands of people who will now get to vote.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:00
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ediit lool should have read the previous page
Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 22:01
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Ytlaya posted:Didn't they actually turn out in much higher numbers than expected, though? Are you confusing the reports on overall turn-out with youth turn-out? IIRC older turn-out was lower than expected and younger turn-out was higher. 2020 Iowa Caucus turnout was good, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. https://twitter.com/Senator_Hatch/status/1225784996192976897 Just because the turnout wasn't as good as 2008, doesn't mean that it is bad. 2008 was an open election where the incumbent bad man couldn't hurt us anymore, not an election to try and find someone to save us from the bad man. Also 2008 had 3 candidates who pulled Bernie/Pete numbers. Obama, Clinton, and Edwards provided a popular candidacy for nearly every facet of the party. Meanwhile the candidate of the older and conservative just wasn't really there this time. Unfortunately I couldn't find the age breakdown for this year following the same breakdown as the last few cycles. So this year is still rougher estimate numbers than previous years, but numbers still good. Gyges posted:Iowa Caucus Demographics for the last 4 cycles. Oracle posted:Chairs are important though. They do stuff like appoint people to committees who set the rules and ultimately decide a lot of things like how to calculate SDEs in the first place, depending on what the bylaws say (which the chairs also have a hand in writing by appointing people to those committees). Its 6th dimensional chess but it actually matters. Yeah, but irrelevant to this years DNC in Minnesota. The fact that they've been used as the metric for winning for the last however many elections is ridiculous.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:02
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Halloween Jack posted:I'm not worried about the lack of huge youth boost in Iowa at all. It's an archaic process designed to shut out Sanders' base. If you're crowing about a 16% participation rate that goes up or down a fraction of a percent, the system's hosed.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:04
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m beginning to lose hope. It feels like the forces arrayed against Bernie are too powerful to be defeated by electoral politics. Especially since the gatekeepers of power and arbiters of the rules are the same people who’s interests Bernie conflicts with. Wicked Them Beats posted:Like every post you've ever made in the thread has been pure panic. You really shouldn't follow the day to day stuff if it affects you this deeply. So tune out, do something fun or engaging over the weekend, and check back Wednesday morning to see what happened. I don't mean to pile on, but I feel this way as well. Kraftwerk consistently Chicken Littles like a motherfuck to the point where I've had to wonder if they're a gimmick poster. For the record, I don't actually believe that's true. Nonetheless, chill the gently caress out. Black and Hispanic people *despise* Buttigieg, and he's finished as of Super Tuesday. We're far past the point where someone can win the Democratic nomination with only centrist White support.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:08
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Halloween Jack posted:The sick thing is that some Democrats genuinely believe that this is Hitlerian "populism." Yeah but they're totally fine with that if they see it working. They pander to populist racist or homophobic or xenophobic sentiment all the time, they have no moral compunctions about it. Bernie is a threat to a status quo that they see as benefiting them so they oppose him on that basis and rationalize it afterwards. If we wins then the calculus flips and supporting him is what will benefit their careers because unlike Obama he won't immediately demobilize the activists who got him elected nor will he set about completely destroying Democratic constituencies. And so Democratic senators will rationalize that and ignore what the rationalizations they used before to oppose him. Not all of them, but enough that he's not going to get impeached. Just like enough Democrats refused to cut Social Security or vote for TPP (remember, both of these rebellions were strategically populism)
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Feb 7, 2020 22:11
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Black voters in the South are hugely older southern Christian who would be Trump voters if it wasn't for the Southern Strategy. There's a large possible issue with Pete there that might come into play. Other black people skew exactly like white people among age and monetary demographics. Where is Pete getting all this black vote from?
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Feb 7, 2020 22:11
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Smashing Link posted:Love Cornel West. He is a solid Christian. Seriously, I'm crack-pinging hardcore because if I had the chance to learn while bouncing on the knee of CORNEL loving WEST and still turned out like Buttigieg I don't know what the hell
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Feb 7, 2020 22:12
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Brave New World posted:I don't mean to pile on, but I feel this way as well. Kraftwerk consistently Chicken Littles like a motherfuck to the point where I've had to wonder if they're a gimmick poster. For the record, I don't actually believe that's true. Nonetheless, chill the gently caress out. Black and Hispanic people *despise* Buttigieg, and he's finished as of Super Tuesday. We're far past the point where someone can win the Democratic nomination with only centrist White support. Also, even if the Butt prevails, take heart that he will get absolutely obliterated in the general and we can all be smug for 4 years. Small victories.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:12
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Kraftwerk posted:I’m beginning to lose hope. Beginning? You've been nothing but  in here for an eternity. Listen to the facts one last time and then go outside for gently caress's sake: Sanders won at least the popular vote in Iowa. He is leading polls. Butt is dead outside the snow-white states. Despair serves the enemy.This applies to all you weak-willed Chicken Littles catastrophizing over a little hitch at the beginning of a long game. Go outside.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:12
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Kraftwerk, if it helps, you can just decide who you're going to vote for in the general, now. Let's not discuss who that is, in the primary thread, but just remember there is always a blank line and you can write anything you want there, and that you can just decide to do that and what name you're going to write in, right now. And if the Democrats want to benefit from that, the ball is in their court. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 7, 2020 22:13
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SuperKlaus posted:Beginning? You've been nothing but Genuinely appreciative of posts like these. Thanks.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:14
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Feb 7, 2020 22:14
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VitalSigns posted:A lot of the reason that many Democrats (not all, but many) oppose Bernie is they are convinced that the way to win is to move right to pander to hypothetical swing voters and to get the big corporate donor money that you need to be competitive. They really fear that Bernie will blow up because left-wing ideas aren't popular and without corporate money you can't win. I think if Bernie does get the nomination, it’s extremely important his VP is someone younger and even more “radical” than he is. Assassination is absolutely a serious concern.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:15
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Pook Good Mook posted:Also, even if the Butt prevails, take heart that he will get absolutely obliterated in the general and we can all be smug for 4 years. While it’s all well and good to criticize Pete, please don’t divide Democrats with rhetoric like this. It’s fine to feel Pete is bad, but let’s not pretend a second term for Trump is in any sense a victory.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:15
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Craptacular! posted:Bernie probably not winning Nevada for the reason I long suspected: gently caress these backstabbing motherfuckers!
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Feb 7, 2020 22:15
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:Kraftwerk, if it helps, you can just decide who you're going to vote for in the general, now. Let's not discuss who that is, in the primary thread, but just remember there is always a blank line and you can write anything you want there, and that you can just decide to do that and what name you're going to write in, right now. And if the Democrats want to benefit from that, the ball is in their court. And that name: Donald Hughes.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:16
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Craptacular! posted:To recap, the union representing most of the waitress/bartenders you meet when you go to Vegas is one of the most powerful political forces in the state, and thinks they’ll lose influence and growth if their health plan isn’t better than what’s offered non-union.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:17
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Sanguinia posted:My understanding is that the UK 2019 GE was what is was because of a collapse of Labour support in a traditional bulwark that they'd held onto since WW2 in rural northern england, traditional country for unionized industrial workers in mines and factories, their own Rust Belt + Coal Country equivalent. That support collapsed from what I've read not because of skepticism regarding Labour's manifesto and promises, or a loss of taste for Labour ideals, so much as a stern belief that Brexit was the right thing to do for their economic prospects (with both the anti-globalism AND the racism playing a part), personal dislike of Corbyn (but not his ideas) thanks to media mudslinging, and Johnson making very stark, no-wiggle-room promises about the parts of the Labour platform they wanted to keep safe, like the NHS, effectively moving his party to the left in certain areas at least publicly. This perception is backed up by some interviews I saw with the newly elected Tory MPs from these formerly-labour areas, who come across as generally young, diverse, truly centrist/center-right (by American reckoning) and unified pretty much only by their view that Brexit needs to happen. This country’s Brexit is Trump making GBS threads on immigrants and it’s very possible that works again regardless of his opponent. In fact that’s what he probably needs to highlight if it comes down to a referendum on Trump in WI. yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Feb 7, 2020 |
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Feb 7, 2020 22:18
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SuperKlaus posted:Despair serves the enemy. Gotta wonder why there are so many chicken littles coming into the thread since Iowa. It's turned this thread into kind of a cesspit.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:18
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Hope is a scary and unfamiliar people to millions of us. I call on those people to embrace hatred. Let it flow throw you and make you strong. Search your feelings. You know I speak the truth.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:19
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I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:21
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Feldegast42 posted:I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith. Anyone that into their faith that it will steer them towards him will be just as scared away by him being gay. It’s a double edged sword
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Feb 7, 2020 22:22
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Feldegast42 posted:I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith. He's gay. edit: Iowa Christian is not Southern Protestant.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:23
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Feldegast42 posted:I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith. Pete will probably keep campaigning as he has been and signal he will pick a black running mate if things still look bad in SC.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:24
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Au Revoir Shosanna posted:what kind of goon has over 1000 followers on instagram? 333 goons with 3 accounts each following the other 333 goonds 3 dummy accounts. Plus, their moms.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:26
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Hellblazer187 posted:Gotta wonder why there are so many chicken littles coming into the thread since Iowa. It's turned this thread into kind of a cesspit. Seriously, the emotion coming out of Iowa should be anger and resolve, not despair.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:26
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:Kraftwerk, if it helps, you can just decide who you're going to vote for in the general, now. Let's not discuss who that is, in the primary thread, but just remember there is always a blank line and you can write anything you want there, and that you can just decide to do that and what name you're going to write in, right now. And if the Democrats want to benefit from that, the ball is in their court. Or you could quit being a baby about it and work your rear end off to elect even Pete the rat because every one of these Dems has a good shot against Trump and 4 more years of Trump isn't going to teach your enemies a lesson and will in fact obliterate the last environmental protections the loving country still has and the climate apocalypse you Bernie or Busters like to shout about as the reason that Bernie must win is loving guaranteed. Christ, you fuckers are exhausting. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 7, 2020 22:27
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Hellblazer187 posted:Gotta wonder why there are so many chicken littles coming into the thread since Iowa. It's turned this thread into kind of a cesspit.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:27
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yronic heroism posted:Pete will probably keep campaigning as he has been and signal he will pick a black running mate if things still look bad in SC. Pete/Booker 2020
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Feb 7, 2020 22:27
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yronic heroism posted:Pete will probably keep campaigning as he has been and signal he will pick a black running mate if things still look bad in SC. I dont think that will work for the same reason Kamala and Booker never polled high in SC. Black people arent gonna vote for somebody just because they're black
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Feb 7, 2020 22:27
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Feldegast42 posted:I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith. i'm actually a little curious why warren doesn't do it more because she came across as pretty heartfelt when she did, she's a devout goodmethodist maybe she takes the whole "don't be ostentatiously 'faithful'" thing seriously 
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Feb 7, 2020 22:28
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