|
The ideal scenario in the next day or so is that Patrick and Gabbard drop out on the same day, in that order, so you can pull the same maneuver.
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 11:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 15:15 |
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:I made some good money on Yang Death and Rules Fuckery tonight. Got out of my "Yang doesn't win any primaries" position at 99c when he announced he was dropping out, then threw a bunch of that money at 15 cent No on Yang being the next candidate to drop out knowing that the alphabetical order tiebreaker would resolve the market to Bennet if he dropped out on the same night. Lo and behold, Bennet dropped out just a few minutes later, and I sold all of those 15 cent Yang No shares for 99c moments later. An absolute legend
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 13:07
|
|
|
Prince Myshkin posted:The ideal scenario in the next day or so is that Patrick and Gabbard drop out on the same day, in that order, so you can pull the same maneuver. Tulsi Gabbard will never log off.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 13:17
|
|
|
predictit has taught me two things about myself: I have no real insights, and I am a huge coward.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 14:50
|
|
|
Fitzy Fitz posted:predictit has taught me two things about myself: I have no real insights, and I am a huge coward. 
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 15:02
|
|
|
Bought some yes on Warren dropping out before super tuesday. Solely basing this on Virgil Texas believe she will in the next week.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 15:17
|
|
|
Going for a safer bet on this one Nevada Joe NO, averaging into a full $850
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 16:16
|
|
|
OK, what are the safe Nevada bets? I don't think Biden is going to win, but he's been up in all the polls so I don't feel totally comfortable with that one. There's been so little polling in Nevada.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 16:27
|
|
|
Fitzy Fitz posted:OK, what are the safe Nevada bets? I don't think Biden is going to win, but he's been up in all the polls so I don't feel totally comfortable with that one. Counterpoint: https://twitter.com/AriRabinHavt/status/1227614504382599168 That Hispanic voter number 
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 17:55
|
|
|
Yeah I fully expect Bernie to sweep the hispanic vote, but I also feel like that's one of the most vulnerable groups to any sort of disenfranchisement.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 18:04
|
|
|
Stupid newbie question, how do withdrawals work? Do they cut you a check?
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 18:21
|
|
|
Wrex Ruckus posted:Stupid newbie question, how do withdrawals work? Do they cut you a check? You can do check or ACH if you plug in your routing/account numbers
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 18:31
|
|
|
Prince Myshkin posted:Rainbow Jeremy is an excellent tipster. lol
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 18:58
|
|
|
How can he be a good tipster? Get this, he don’t. Even. Have. A telly. You can check his website.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 20:09
|
|
|
sitting here hoping that Klob gets some good polls so that I can make a good swing on the 2 cents per I bought for her winning CA last night
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 20:21
|
|
|
From the Succ thread:But Rocks Hurt Head posted:Wow this is embarrassing
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 20:56
|
|
|
Bloomberg is currently the highest to win Arkansas, a Super Tuesday state.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 20:59
|
|
|
FORUMS USER 1135 posted:From the Succ thread: Yeah I just threw $50 into this market it seems like a sure thing, if nothing else you can get out after NV/SC when she'll be up to like 80 cents
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 20:59
|
|
|
I think the January fundraising FEC report comes out this Saturday (the 15th) so that may give us more clarity on dropouts. If Warren’s January fundraising is bad enough her dropout market probably bumps a few points on that news alone
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 21:38
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:I think the January fundraising FEC report comes out this Saturday (the 15th) so that may give us more clarity on dropouts. If Warren’s January fundraising is bad enough her dropout market probably bumps a few points on that news alone  Also: https://twitter.com/DavidWright_7/status/1227677643237097474
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 21:47
|
|
|
pumpin warren dropping out. it hit 78 cents last night!!
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 21:49
|
|
|
put about $25 on Biden NOT dropping out before Super Tuesday
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 22:15
|
|
|
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6408/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-drop-out-before-Super-Tuesday *Anakin Skywalker voice* It's surging! IT'S SURGING! https://twitter.com/SiddakAhuja/status/1227691392975220742
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 22:38
|
|
|
Thanks for the tip on that. I'm already up a bit. Not sure if I should sell or ride it out
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 22:58
|
|
|
that tweet got me too, it’s fake news but still fun
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 22:59
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:that tweet got me too, it’s fake news but still fun the beauty of predictit is that it doesn't matter if you're just trying to pump the market! 
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 23:03
|
|
|
Fitzy Fitz posted:Thanks for the tip on that. I'm already up a bit. Not sure if I should sell or ride it out It's all fake but there will be a price spike on Saturday and after NV and SC so ride it out a bit.
|
|
#
?
Feb 12, 2020 23:21
|
|
|
Fitzy Fitz posted:Thanks for the tip on that. I'm already up a bit. Not sure if I should sell or ride it out You can always put in a sell order for only some of the shares at different prices. That way it can cover some or all of your entry price depending on what you bought in at.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 00:14
|
|
|
deep south all flipped to bloomberg today, what the hell
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 05:46
|
|
|
I'm trying to swing trade warren to drop out before super tuesday, hope i dont get owned also why is bernie to win the nom down $.03 or so?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 05:59
|
|
|
ScrubLeague posted:deep south all flipped to bloomberg today, what the hell yeah what the gently caress? Maryland too
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:02
|
|
|
New York is a penny away from flipping too. I'm guessing people are getting scared of the money machine and his rising polls but this seems way too imbalanced this early in the game.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:05
|
|
|
he could just be buying them up himself to help build a narrative, how much would it cost to do that?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:16
|
|
|
jisforjosh posted:It's all fake but there will be a price spike on Saturday and after NV and SC so ride it out a bit.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:25
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:he could just be buying them up himself to help build a narrative, how much would it cost to do that? a piddly amount compared to how much he's spending on tv ads
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:35
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:he could just be buying them up himself to help build a narrative, how much would it cost to do that?
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:36
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:he could just be buying them up himself to help build a narrative, how much would it cost to do that? He's almost certainly doing that. Very unfair to the kindly billionaire Steyer, who seems like a nice fellow. (Please do not ask whether I'm holding Steyer shares to flip them on an upswing.)
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:38
|
|
|
Bloomberg probably made more money in interest in the time it's taking us to have this exchange than it'd cost to pump all those predictit markets. Not sure any candidate knows or cares about what people on predictit think its happening though.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:39
|
|
|
Reporters pay attention to it and write stories about it sometimes. Would be worth a trivially small sum to get a favorable note written in a major outlet.
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:42
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 10, 2024 15:15 |
|
|
I also wonder how much he could pump it before it became so obvious as to make the site no longer newsworthy
|
|
#
?
Feb 13, 2020 06:45
|
|