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stephenthinkpad posted:The guys who look 23 who is 35? When people ask me how old my chinese kids are I say 16 and 18 (they're actually 3 and 5).
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Feb 15, 2020 03:50
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Some folks age well. Not me, I look my late-30s. Thanks smoking! Used to have a boss years ago that I swore looked 27, but was in his early 40s. Whiter that the day is long. I think it was because he didn't have kids. I don't either, but habits are hard on the body.
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Feb 15, 2020 03:57
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My old coworker used to get regularly carded and she was 40 Lolled about it often she did
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Feb 15, 2020 04:31
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Plant MONSTER. posted:\ welp, there goes my weekend plans
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Feb 15, 2020 04:33
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Well gently caress me. We dead. https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1228516569342345216?s=21
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Feb 15, 2020 04:52
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MarcusSA posted:Well gently caress me. Could this be the source? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1 I also found this other estimate https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32007643 Everyone thinks is very infectious. >2. Edit: The article says the real R0 is between 2.3 and 3.0, taking into account the effects of the current lockdowns / quarantines. quote:Fortunately, we see evidence that control efforts have a measurable effect on the rate of spread. Tei fucked around with this message at 05:05 on Feb 15, 2020 |
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Feb 15, 2020 04:59
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stephenthinkpad posted:The guys who look 23 who is 35? coronavirus is like an exile of youth, and will make your skin beautiful and fresh! learn how you can use deadly virus to de-age your skin today, with this Secrete beauty tips professional beautyologiest don't want you to know!!!!
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Feb 15, 2020 05:00
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MarcusSA posted:Well gently caress me. I just can't see that happening. I think it's really serious, but numbers like that seem to suggest a majority of people on the planet would catch it in the next few weeks - and that a real percentage of people the world over already has it. I mean: It probably started around the beginning of december. Let's call that 75 days ago. It would double (in early local epidemic) every 2.4 days. So that's time for ~30 doublings (I know, I know, it slows down at a certain point, and when quarantine measures are taken). Still, back of the napkin math makes that about 2^30, which is just over ONE BILLION. There are not one billion people infected today. I'd be very, very surprised if it was more than a million. edit: aggressive containment measures started on January 23, roughly 50 days after the beginning of the outbreak. That still leave room for a possible 20 doublings - 2^20, which is just over a million - on January 23rd. Is that really possible? I know it takes 2-14 days to incubate, and the disease's progression takes roughly 3 weeks (week 1 is rough, week 2 a little better, week 3 you get better or need a ventilator). Will 15% of the 500k who caught it around the 23rd - 75,000 people - need a ventilator in the coming week? I know this is glossing over many important nuances, but the scale seems off with what we're seeing, even if official numbers are likely inaccurate. ma i married a tuna fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Feb 15, 2020 |
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Feb 15, 2020 05:06
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Doesn't that number reflect ideal transmission? Like no masks, medical care, or hand washing. Just all 1.4 billion people in China sneezing into each other's faces all day and night.
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Feb 15, 2020 05:11
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I was wondering if we'd get something leading into this weekend.
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Feb 15, 2020 05:12
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Ornamental Dingbat posted:Doesn't that number reflect ideal transmission? Like no masks, medical care, or hand washing. Just all 1.4 billion people in China sneezing into each other's faces all day and night. R0 is transmission ratio for unvaccinated population who haven't had the disease before. Other factors don't matter because with a large enough population size you can ignore every other factor.
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Feb 15, 2020 05:13
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The r0 value may be that high, and the virus is just not that deadly in populations that don't live in heavily polluted areas with behaviors that damage their lungs, or it might be less deadly in non-Asian genotypes. There were enough cases in the US that if it was that virulent and deadly we would be seeing large pockets of spread by now. I wouldn't be surprised if it was already spreading quite a bit in the US and just hasn't been that severe.
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Feb 15, 2020 05:15
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This has been my reocurring concern: If this started in December, why isn't the rest of the world where China was this time last month?
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Feb 15, 2020 05:20
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ma i married a tuna posted:I just can't see that happening. I think it's really serious, but numbers like that seem to suggest a majority of people on the planet would catch it in the next few weeks - and that a real percentage of people the world over already has it. IIRC various Measles strains have an R0 greater than 12 QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Feb 15, 2020 |
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Feb 15, 2020 05:36
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https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/02/14/governor-japanese-visitor-recently-hawaii-confirmed-have-coronavirus/ Guy visiting Hawaii started exhibiting symptoms while in Hawaii, didn't get diagnosed until he landed back in Japan.
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Feb 15, 2020 05:55
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Gearhead posted:This has been my reocurring concern: If this started in December, why isn't the rest of the world where China was this time last month? the rest of the world implemented pretty serious quarantine procedures once it started taking off in china and so far it appears to have been effective
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Feb 15, 2020 05:56
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What does RO stand for? R? Is it zero or oh. Ianas
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Feb 15, 2020 06:15
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Burt Sexual posted:What does RO stand for? R? Is it zero or oh. Ianas It’s R zero but it’s Pronounced R not.
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Feb 15, 2020 06:18
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Burt Sexual posted:What does RO stand for? R? Is it zero or oh. Ianas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
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Feb 15, 2020 06:18
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I’ve learned something today
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Feb 15, 2020 07:26
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Burt Sexual posted:I’ve learned something today Its good to know the details on how you'll die.
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Feb 15, 2020 07:58
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1stGear posted:Its good to know the details on how you'll die. Oh no, not I, I will survive Oh, as long as I know how to love, I know I'll stay alive I've got all my life to live And I've got all my love to give and I'll survive I will survive I will survive
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Feb 15, 2020 08:02
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I was always more of a short skirt, long jacket kinda guy.
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Feb 15, 2020 08:17
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Don’t die on the Cruise Burt!! https://twitter.com/quarantinedond1/status/1228582651646246912?s=21
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Feb 15, 2020 08:33
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https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1228590900131004418?s=21 Take the flight or sucks to be you either way haha If they take the flight they are gonna be stuck on that base for 2 weeks.
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Feb 15, 2020 09:05
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SchrodingersCat posted:The r0 value may be that high, and the virus is just not that deadly in populations that don't live in heavily polluted areas with behaviors that damage their lungs, or it might be less deadly in non-Asian genotypes. Maybe, but I'd think that it'd hit at least some folks hard enough to land them in the hospital, just like the flu does, and at least some of them would be diagnosed as "down with the crow," which is what i'm predicting the cool kids will be calling COVID NINETEEN soon
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Feb 15, 2020 09:16
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We can't stop here. This is Batros Country. 
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Feb 15, 2020 09:21
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Welp, we're all dead Apparently more than half of the virus patients in Hubei are being treated with woo instead of, you know, actual medicine. Been nice posting with all of you https://twitter.com/cdcshepherd/status/1228568503269175303 e: I guess they could be treating some of them with TCM and real medicine but this is still not a good sign. Porfiriato fucked around with this message at 09:35 on Feb 15, 2020 |
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Feb 15, 2020 09:31
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Hahahahahaha
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Feb 15, 2020 10:22
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Of all the places where a super plague could start, of course it's the place where peplle eat dried rhino ear because then they can hear the virus better and avoid it or something.
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Feb 15, 2020 10:24
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teacup posted:Real talk I’ve got a friend who works in a Chinese restaurant near box hill and is seriously worried about how much longer he can stay open due to lack of business. almost-empty sunday morning chinatown yum cha is going to be amazing though. i choose death. honestly i'm more worried about my friend's safety at the michael buble concert. michael loving buble i knew this day would come
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Feb 15, 2020 10:39
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Known Lecher posted:Welp, we're all dead https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/12/the-truth-about-tamiflu/307801/
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Feb 15, 2020 10:43
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Some parts of TCM actually make sense, as they are basically natural remedies. My guess is they try to bolster their immune system with natural ingredients same as we do in the west for example.
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Feb 15, 2020 10:58
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TCM got us into this mess, surely it can get us out of it
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Feb 15, 2020 11:00
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Hopper posted:Some parts of TCM actually make sense, as they are basically natural remedies. TCM is literally a placebo, that is the entire reason it was invented in the 50s (to make people think that they were getting medical care even though the state was not in any position to provide it).
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Feb 15, 2020 11:07
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I'm thinking about home ownership in the near future. Should I buy before the collapse and risk being outside the Decontaminated Zone fortifications, or stock up on barter-worthy items for use in the barracks with other conscripted cremators?
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Feb 15, 2020 11:19
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Hopper posted:Some parts of TCM actually make sense, as they are basically natural remedies. Yes many westerners are also dumb
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Feb 15, 2020 11:28
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Cure for the virus is a nice warm bowl of bat soup
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Feb 15, 2020 11:36
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Jabor posted:TCM is literally a placebo, that is the entire reason it was invented in the 50s (to make people think that they were getting medical care even though the state was not in any position to provide it). The 50s? Is that what they tell you in your conspiracy group? I am not trying to defend TCM most of it is dubious, but dude seriously?
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Feb 15, 2020 13:40
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Jabor posted:TCM is literally a placebo, that is the entire reason it was invented in the 50s (to make people think that they were getting medical care even though the state was not in any position to provide it). I'd rather take ginger for nausea than promethazine poverty goat fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Feb 15, 2020 |
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Feb 15, 2020 13:50
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