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MarcusSA posted:I said this in the other thread but I’ll say it here too. I work in the wealth management industry! Just leave your drat investments alone, people. Messing around with your portfolio every time you see a startling headline is an excellent way of frittering your money away through hasty decisions and transaction charges.
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Feb 24, 2020 06:46
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Pistol_Pete posted:I work in the wealth management industry! Just leave your drat investments alone, people. Messing around with your portfolio every time you see a startling headline is an excellent way of frittering your money away through hasty decisions and transaction charges. I don't get charged anything through Voya when I change my investments  Also this isn't just a startling headline but time will tell I guess!
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Feb 24, 2020 06:48
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Emotional investing is smart investing. Sell when people are panicking and buy when stocks are going up! What could possibly go wrong?
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Feb 24, 2020 06:49
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NUMBER ONLY GO UP
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Feb 24, 2020 06:52
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Good god man. Leave your investments alone. Either everything will settle back down in a few months for a net no change or it will no longer matter.
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Feb 24, 2020 07:02
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WorldsStongestNerd posted:Good god man. Leave your investments alone. Either everything will settle back down in a few months for a net no change or it will no longer matter. 2% death rate means the second doesnt happen pandemics make war less, not more likely, the spanish flu was a great incitement to end ww1. probably the public emergency with the least risk of riots and poo poo. whos going to do the rioting? everyone knows germ theory and believes in it except the real turbo dipshits and they dont live next to one another it may be between a few months and a few years bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Feb 24, 2020 |
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Feb 24, 2020 07:06
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stephenthinkpad posted:It was never logical since the start, Japan better off send the ship away and Hen Sen sensei can release all the passengers in Cambodia. At least half of the passengers wouldn't be infected.
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Feb 24, 2020 07:20
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MarcusSA posted:I said this in the other thread but I’ll say it here too. And as was pointed out in that other thread, that's bad advice. The stock market will take a poo poo eventually no matter what, because that's what stock markets do, but you're a fool if you think that the stock market behaves rationally, like at all. Emotional investment strategies tend to cost more than they save and trying to predict the market from news headlines is folly
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Feb 24, 2020 07:27
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QuarkJets posted:And as was pointed out in that other thread, that's bad advice. The stock market will take a poo poo eventually no matter what, because that's what stock markets do, but you're a fool if you think that the stock market behaves rationally, like at all. Emotional investment strategies tend to cost more than they save and trying to predict the market from news headlines is folly In general I agree with you but this isn't like any other time. Only time will tell though. Also I'm not advocating pulling all your money out and putting it in your mattress. Moving it to a more secure investing scenario isn't really that crazy. If its wrong you lose a few % (over very limited time) if its right you potentially saved a huge portion of your investments.
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Feb 24, 2020 07:30
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bob dobbs is dead posted:2% death rate means the second doesnt happen There's always that slim chance of someone in charge deciding to start a nuclear war over this. Go ahead and tell me with a straight face that the Boomers, who possess the launch keys, wouldn't do that I don't really believe that I just like dunking on boomers as much as anyone else
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Feb 24, 2020 07:30
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just a new plague guys no biggie anyway does anyone know any good leveraged ETFs heavily involved in legume-tech
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Feb 24, 2020 07:30
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how do i shift my 401k into the company that produces those leaf blowers full of disinfectant fog machines
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Feb 24, 2020 07:31
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What companies are big on manufacturing or distributing equipment for mass corpse disposal?
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Feb 24, 2020 07:33
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Delthalaz posted:What companies are big on manufacturing or distributing equipment for mass corpse disposal? Soylent.
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Feb 24, 2020 07:35
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MarcusSA posted:In general I agree with you but this isn't like any other time. You're the one saying that you'd be a "drat fool" to leave your investments alone, everyone else is just explaining why that's not the case. There's no need to act defensive
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Feb 24, 2020 07:36
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QuarkJets posted:You're the one saying that you'd be a "drat fool" to leave your investments alone, everyone else is just explaining why that's not the case. There's no need to act defensive One person said it and I don't agree. Again I'm not saying pull everything out just move it to a more secure portfolio.
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Feb 24, 2020 07:42
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MarcusSA posted:One person said it and I don't agree. I counted at least three in this thread advising to not start loving around with portfolios over this. I think there were even more in the other thread Do whatever you want with your own money people are just expressing other opinions. I don't even necessarily think you're wrong, I just think it's also reasonable to not move your money around because predicting the market is insanely difficult even with perfect information QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Feb 24, 2020 |
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Feb 24, 2020 07:59
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golden calf
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Feb 24, 2020 08:02
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invest in mail order delivery schemes and sex entertainment products as demand increases for the quarantined
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Feb 24, 2020 09:03
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Bardeh posted:For some reason it seems to mostly not affect kids at all. The virus actually kills based on your lifetime CO2 emissions, hence why kids are alright. Good luck Amerigoons.
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Feb 24, 2020 09:04
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MarcusSA posted:One person said it and I don't agree. What you are saying seems to imply you are somehow misunderstanding how this all works. Portfolios are not things where you „move“ something somewhere for free, even if it looks like it. How do you imagine things move? What happens in a crisis time when there is excess demand for safe positions from many investors? It seems you think you only lose the opportunity cost of not having higher returns, but thats not true.
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Feb 24, 2020 09:13
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Haramstufe Rot posted:What you are saying seems to imply you are somehow misunderstanding how this all works. Portfolios are not things where you „move“ something somewhere for free, even if it looks like it. In my voya account I can say how they invest the money and allocate it however I want. As for your bolded part unless you can explain it differently that is pretty much what happens if the market doesn't take a poo poo like quite a few people think it will. quote:The purpose of the Ultra-Conservative Profile Portfolio is to this is what I can do with Voya and they don't charge a fee
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Feb 24, 2020 09:38
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Do you think that the risk of economic troubles has not already been priced in by people with more money to throw around than you do? Are you sure the market isn't going to surge up (and you'll miss out massively if you've taken yourself out of it) if a vaccine shows up 6 months early, since people were expecting even more trouble when they were figuring how much things would be worth? But by all means, sell at the low point and buy back in once it's already well on the way up if you think that's the secret to success.
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Feb 24, 2020 10:01
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Jabor posted:Do you think that the risk of economic troubles has not already been priced in by people with more money to throw around than you do? Are you sure the market isn't going to surge up (and you'll miss out massively if you've taken yourself out of it) if a vaccine shows up 6 months early, since people were expecting even more trouble when they were figuring how much things would be worth? please tell me what to do with my money o mighty oracle
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Feb 24, 2020 10:54
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Unless you are planning to retire in the next 10 years it doesn't matter anyway since the market will go through multiple ups and downs in that time or you might think that the whole system will collapse before you retire in which case putting any money in it is dumb
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Feb 24, 2020 11:00
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Necrothatcher posted:please tell me what to do with my money o mighty oracle Burn it, burn it all in praise of the money gods! This advice isn't just for you, it's good for everyone!
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Feb 24, 2020 11:05
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Omnicarus posted:March 9st.
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Feb 24, 2020 11:27
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Two people evacuated from Diamond Princess are being quarantined in my city and the local newspaper is not happy.
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Feb 24, 2020 11:29
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MarcusSA posted:
Of course if you are loaded with some high risk stocks in shipping logistics, or if you need cash available in the next two years, then by all means get out. But you are talking about a regular diversified portfolio, say mostly ETFs, that supposedly is a long term investment, then what you are saying is incorrect. The loss you face is that you are trying to sell low and buy high, because risk is priced into the alternatives you would consider. If the market doesn't take a dump, you will have lost approximately the same amount of money by making these sell-low/buy-high trades as if the crisis did occur - approximately to the degree that the market prices in this risk. If that slider in your app really "shifts" your allocation (and not just additional investments), then your $ amount will be less.** So it is not just the opportunity cost, it is in fact a loss of value. If the market takes a dump and then recovers in 2-3 years, your "safe" portfolio will not be able to profit from this recovery, and you will have lost money making these trades in the first place. Your position will be worse. But additionally, if the market collapses such that a recovery is unlikely, then there really isn't any "safe portfolio" - at least not using a Voya slider - and you will lose your money regardless. In essence, a total collapse means you are hosed either way. For the overwhelming amount of people who have a long term diversified portfolio, riding out the crisis is efficient, whereas trying to buy/sell (adjust) toward a low risk portfolio will - over 5-10 years - only lose money. Again, it is you who gave this free investment advice, and it just strikes me as not a good advice. I am not saying there is no situation where you may not edge out a profit, but it sounds like a small knife-edge case compared to all the other scenarios, where you will likely lose money. If your risk appetite is low in these type of situations, where a global recessions may be possible, then your investment portfolio should be set up as low risk in the first place! It still means you can lose all your money, but you will have less fluctuation if the crisis is minor. But it is not a good strategy to try to shift positions once the crisis is already there! If your position includes more risk, for example because you consider long term investment, then your strategy implies that you "ride out" these crises and make use of the eventual recovery. Changing your portfolio now means: You still lose nearly the same amount (if risk is priced correctly), but you will not be able to profit from recovery over the long term. ** This doesn't mean the $$ in your account are less. It means you are getting less "things" for your $$ in your account than you should get if there was no crisis. Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Feb 24, 2020 |
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Feb 24, 2020 12:49
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But Haramstufe Rot, surely no one else has considered the possibility of an economic downturn. We'd be wise to get in on the ground floor now, before all of the rubes on Wall Street realize what's going on with this coronavirus stuff.
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Feb 24, 2020 13:06
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Okay let me clarify. Assume you can invest in A and B. Assume right now both have a price of 1$ and you are holding 100$ of A. Assume further that A is risky and might fluctuate in a crisis. It may go down to 0. In the long term, however, A will be worth 2$ while B will increase only slightly and stay around 1$. In reality, B will increase at some rate, but that doesn't matter right now. Your logic is: Crisis is here, let me switch my 100$ into B. You think you get 100 pieces of B, and will keep your portfolio value at 100$ since B has no risk. This works if there is no risk consideration in the market. But since risk is priced in, and many actors want to reduce risk (for different reasons), B is actually priced 1,25$ right now, even though in the long term it is worth 1$. This is because market actors need B to reduce their risk, especially those who don't have a long term horizon like you do. Many peeps want B, many have to buy it no matter how expensive. Demand is high, and so is price. Hence, you only get 80 pieces of B. Your portfolio is still worth 100$, of course. Your Voya account shows 100$. You happy. Two scenarios: 1. Assume no crisis happens. If you stayed in A, you'd have 200$ instead of 100$. 2. Assume the crisis happens - A goes to 0. It seems you have saved 100 bucks. But after the crisis, A will eventually go back to 2$-x, say 1.8, and B will eventually go back down to whatever it is without crisis risk - here we assumed 1$, but it could be whatever (in reality, it will not necessarily decline but rather grow less. The logic is the same, you can calc this with some fixed growth rates if you like). Now you have 80$ of B, as opposed to 180$ of A. You lose between 100 and 120-x bucks by making that trade. Note that this is only because you try to trade WHILE the crisis is priced in. If you would have said in the beginning that you don't want risk, you could have gotten 100xB for 100$ and you would have held 100$ the whole time (plus by whatever amount B increases as a risk free rate). Now for extra credit, figure out how some savvy investor like, say, Voya, could make money from dudes who do what you do. Hint: Use futures of some sort. Edit: To clarify, you only win if A will never recover again beyond 0.8$, but somehow people are still willing to buy B from you. That is, the 2$ of A has no connection to fundamental values but 1$ of B does. Then, however, you should have held B in the first place. Furthermore, this is only realistic if A are individual stocks and B is a broad portfolio of some sort. But in Voya, both A and B will be market portfolios with different compositions, so the case that only one but not the other depresses permanently is unlikely. And if you would think that, you'd still have lost money because you should have been in B all along. Haramstufe Rot fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Feb 24, 2020 |
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Feb 24, 2020 13:14
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Pls bookmark my posts in case they get interesting in the future.
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Feb 24, 2020 13:33
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For example if an uninspired pun becomes a chuckle worthy take on the situation in Italy the 6 months laugh outcomes in your portfolio can earn you a projected 7% in something or other !
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Feb 24, 2020 13:37
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harsh
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Feb 24, 2020 13:39
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Haramstufe Rot posted:harsh You're ok man, just me being a bit of a dick for no reason
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Feb 24, 2020 13:47
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MarcusSA posted:I said this in the other thread but I’ll say it here too. I don't think you are going to be wrong per say, but one of the main follies of investing is thinking you can time the market. Hell, there are a ton of ways you could short the market and really make some cash off of this if you are so certain its going to happen. Also I am pretty sure this is going to lead to a boom in China in a few years anyways. Who can really know?
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Feb 24, 2020 14:36
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this all sounds reasonable but i don't think the market has accurately priced in the risk
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Feb 24, 2020 14:56
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Andrast posted:the whole system will collapse before you retire
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Feb 24, 2020 15:16
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I thought this was a pandemic thread PS: Time in the market > timing in the market. Y’all could have avoided your essay posts about 401ks and just said this
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Feb 24, 2020 15:52
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Are things slowing down so much that we've switched to market chat?
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Feb 24, 2020 16:01
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