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I keep my vodka under the sink personally
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Feb 25, 2020 00:36
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In a big friendly bleach canister, to scare away thieves
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Feb 25, 2020 01:05
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Nurge posted:We know the population lethality rates for flu, instead of transmission lethality rates. We know neither for coronavirus. Hence, the numbers are smaller than the ones reported. This is not rocket science. I got a strong feeling you don't work in the medical field or in statistics.
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Feb 25, 2020 01:19
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Colonel Cancer posted:In a big friendly bleach canister, to scare away thieves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DGUDC_hbWk
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Feb 25, 2020 01:31
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I appreciate the non-scaremongering posts. Sounds like china didn't realize they were hosed until they were hosed (for whatever reason) and i can only hope if it spreads in the US it spares my parents. And me too, at that rate. But yea, bat flu ain't nothin to gently caress with.
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Feb 25, 2020 01:46
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mindstorm posted:I appreciate the non-scaremongering posts. Sounds like china didn't realize they were hosed until they were hosed (for whatever reason) and i can only hope if it spreads in the US it spares my parents. And me too, at that rate. But yea, bat flu ain't nothin to gently caress with. The big question for us here in the US, and the world in general, is whether this thing will survive well enough through warm weather that it can come back big next winter. Even if there are hidden infected people in the US right now, just waiting for the 2 weeks incubation to set things off, the rate of doubling wouldn't be hitting tons of people before May and the normal end of cold & flu season. Your parents are gonna be ok, for now. SARS was sufficiently hampered by warm weather that the first summer pretty much killed it, there was too small a reservoir before it was winter again. Covid is way more infectious than SARS to start, but if it also happens to really hate summers that would be really helpful for us. OTOH if it can keep that R-value close enough to 1 to persist like normal cold viruses then it's gonna be tough 9 months from now.
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Feb 25, 2020 02:24
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bob dobbs is dead posted:here's the deal. 10,000 people in serious condition in any locality will completely and comprehensively overwhelm any health system anywhere. That's true, and it has also been true throughout China's effected areas. It's not like Hubei has had a ton of available respirators. So it's not really relevant to the statistics, as that is already baked in And if you are in one of the demographics with a 0.3% chance of needing ICU care then there's a 99.7% chance that your case fatality rate won't be impacted at all by overcrowded hospitals.
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Feb 25, 2020 02:32
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QuarkJets posted:That's true, and it has also been true throughout China's effected areas. It's not like Hubei has had a ton of available respirators. So it's not really relevant to the statistics, as that is already baked in The rate of cases ranked as severe is closer to 19-20%. Most of these people don't need an ICU but need oxygen. How many of those do we have? How many of those people will die without the oxygen supply? How many more will die from secondary complications as their immune system is overwhelmed by Covid-19? Looking at the fatality rate alone is a completely pointless and idiotic exercise if you want any outlook on real world mortality.
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Feb 25, 2020 03:30
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https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/1231959925040939009 (i did not bother to double-check this)
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Feb 25, 2020 04:19
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VomitOnLino posted:Looking at the fatality rate alone is a completely pointless and idiotic exercise if you want any outlook on real world mortality. Wasn't there a quote several pages back from a biostatistician who said that the numbers being released by the Chinese fit the curve too perfectly, and there's no chance that they're accurate numbers?
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Feb 25, 2020 04:21
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Klyith posted:The big question for us here in the US, and the world in general, is whether this thing will survive well enough through warm weather that it can come back big next winter. Even if there are hidden infected people in the US right now, just waiting for the 2 weeks incubation to set things off, the rate of doubling wouldn't be hitting tons of people before May and the normal end of cold & flu season. Your parents are gonna be ok, for now. What does warm weather have to do with disease spread?
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Feb 25, 2020 04:24
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does warm weather have to do with disease spread? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK222258/
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Feb 25, 2020 04:27
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Arsenic Lupin posted:Wasn't there a quote several pages back from a biostatistician who said that the numbers being released by the Chinese fit the curve too perfectly, and there's no chance that they're accurate numbers? They didn't fit anywhere close to perfectly. What the people making those predictions did was generate a logistics curve (which can easily be matched to virus activity) that looked ok and fit the data they had, then gave the data really broad bars so you couldn't easily tell how far off it really was. Basically: Find a statistician friend and have them tell you how dumb that claim is. E: Oh yeah, last time i saw that claim they also had played with the scale of the graph to hide how rough the actual data was. Honestly, instead of trying to find conspiracy stories y'all should be worried about how hosed up and 100% unprepared the US healthcare is for such an event and how that's entirely down to US culture being incredible inhuman. Mithaldu fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Feb 25, 2020 |
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Feb 25, 2020 04:33
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ty for such an excellent informative link
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Feb 25, 2020 04:35
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Mithaldu posted:Honestly, instead of trying to find conspiracy stories y'all should be worried about how hosed up and 100% unprepared the US healthcare is for such an event and how that's entirely down to US culture being incredible inhuman.
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Feb 25, 2020 04:37
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What's the fatality rate without any treatment?
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Feb 25, 2020 04:38
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"The peak number of reported cases averaged over five seasons from 1994 to 1999 occurred in mid-December through February. It is reasonable to assume that the disease transmission cycle is influenced by climate, but the actual driving mechanisms are not well understood and have been the subject of few quantitative studies. Annual influenza outbreaks do not appear to correlate with mean winter or monthly temperature (Langford and Bentham, 1995). The interannual variability in the virulence of influenza strains makes interpretation of the relevant data difficult" Cool, seems like the spreading of viruses likely doesn't have much to do with temperature according to your link?
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Feb 25, 2020 04:48
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human garbage bag posted:What's the fatality rate without any treatment? This is the true question as the real problem is the health infrastructure being overwhelmed, which may be the main problem in China. It would be great to compare that to flu mortality without treatment.
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Feb 25, 2020 04:55
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does warm weather have to do with disease spread? The average virus is a fragile bit of RNA goo held in a weak molecular shell. They fall apart on their own from exposure to oxygen, sunlight, and mild chemicals like soap. When it's cool and dry that slows down the degrading forces, so they can last longer. tl;dr a virus is a cadbury egg except not delicious, and they melt in the summer Other diseases are different; bacteria are much better put-together, and anything that wants a mosquito or tick or whatnot to carry it between people will obviously prefer whatever time of year their carrier enjoys.
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Feb 25, 2020 05:00
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mindstorm posted:I appreciate the non-scaremongering posts. Sounds like china didn't realize they were hosed until they were hosed (for whatever reason) and i can only hope if it spreads in the US it spares my parents. And me too, at that rate. But yea, bat flu ain't nothin to gently caress with. China didn't realize because the information was actively kept from the top levels of leadership because of the policies and culture top leadership set up. Having things in your province or district go less than ideally means your career is done. Toast. So if you have a mysterious illness you don't try to investigate it or look around or do anything that might bring it to peoples attention because if its NOT a mysterious new illness and just the regular old flu you just flushed your career down the toilet for "starting rumors" or "spreading panic". It happens in almost every authoritarian regime. Inevitably you get hosed up because the people on the ground are telling you want to hear instead of what you need to hear out of pure self-preservation.
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Feb 25, 2020 05:11
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this is probably whats happening in every other chinese province btw
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Feb 25, 2020 05:21
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human garbage bag posted:What's the fatality rate without any treatment? People entering the ICU (e.g. developing serious symptoms) in China have had about a 50% chance of death. So multiply any demographic cfr by 2 for a rough estimate of the death rate without treatment. But also, mostly it's older people who have needed serious treatment, so this is going to overestimate the death rate for younger demographics
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Feb 25, 2020 05:27
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This will all become academic once Bernie is elected and makes sweeping changes to our healthcare system with zero obstruction by either party.
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Feb 25, 2020 05:29
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human garbage bag posted:What's the fatality rate without any treatment? It's a flat 69%. (I'm guessing not far from the reported 0.2%-3.6%, age bracket depending.)
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Feb 25, 2020 05:37
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frogge posted:It's a flat 69%. Isn't that the same mortality rate as treated Ebola?
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Feb 25, 2020 05:41
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Klyith posted:SARS was sufficiently hampered by warm weather that the first summer pretty much killed it, there was too small a reservoir before it was winter again. Covid is way more infectious than SARS to start, but if it also happens to really hate summers that would be really helpful for us. OTOH if it can keep that R-value close enough to 1 to persist like normal cold viruses then it's gonna be tough 9 months from now.  at best response from the government we will probably provide a good case study for the US.
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Feb 25, 2020 10:58
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We'll be saved from the virus by... global warming?
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Feb 25, 2020 11:06
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uvar posted:We'll be saved from the virus by... global warming? And the virus will save us from global warming. Win Win!!!
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Feb 25, 2020 11:14
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WalletBeef posted:I'm curious, whats the fatality rate in China vs the rest of the world? 3.429% in China 3.956% in Wuhan https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
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Feb 25, 2020 11:16
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QuarkJets posted:People entering the ICU (e.g. developing serious symptoms) in China have had about a 50% chance of death. So multiply any demographic cfr by 2 for a rough estimate of the death rate without treatment. But also, mostly it's older people who have needed serious treatment, so this is going to overestimate the death rate for younger demographics Wuhan undercounted the dead body a lot in Jan. A lot of people died without confirming the virus in their bodies. The government has an idea how many people died thru the cremation data. However wuhan also severely undercounted the light patients and asymptomatic infected. They can't get a number unless they do large scale antibody test on the whole city.
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Feb 25, 2020 11:22
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Just saw this. Wasn't this guy at a summit with other EU leaders recently?  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-slovakia-election-primeminister/slovak-pm-pellegrini-cancels-schedule-due-to-illness-idUSKCN20H0A9 quote:Slovak PM Pellegrini cancels schedule due to illness
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Feb 25, 2020 11:31
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:"The peak number of reported cases averaged over five seasons from 1994 to 1999 occurred in mid-December through February. It is reasonable to assume that the disease transmission cycle is influenced by climate, but the actual driving mechanisms are not well understood and have been the subject of few quantitative studies. Annual influenza outbreaks do not appear to correlate with mean winter or monthly temperature (Langford and Bentham, 1995). The interannual variability in the virulence of influenza strains makes interpretation of the relevant data difficult" I mean, there's an outbreak in Iran and that's not a particularly chilly place.
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Feb 25, 2020 11:35
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Necrothatcher posted:I mean, there's an outbreak in Iran and that's not a particularly chilly place. There was loving snow in the streets a week ago
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Feb 25, 2020 11:40
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CRUSTY MINGE posted:So this is happening. CRUSTY MINGE posted:Oh no worries, can't have a discussion if we just flame each other over our opinions. https://twitter.com/BrandyZadrozny/status/1164693990714806273 See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Tang_Dynasty_Television
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Feb 25, 2020 12:21
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o_o https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232276183305400320?s=20
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Feb 25, 2020 13:37
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Save that face for when it turns out the Slovak PM has it and gave it to half the EU leaders.
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Feb 25, 2020 13:54
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:China Uncensored and America Uncensored are both operations from New Tang Dynasty Television, which is the Falun Gong's media company. Facebook cracked down on them recently: So who are the good guys here? I need to pick a side.
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Feb 25, 2020 13:56
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:China Uncensored and America Uncensored are both operations from New Tang Dynasty Television, which is the Falun Gong's media company. Facebook cracked down on them recently: So I guess keep making up poo poo about China year in and year out is okay, but trying to get their hands in the American politic finally did themselves in. I am curious has Scientology ever tried to blatantly push the political agenda like that before?
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Feb 25, 2020 14:05
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Scientology is probably quite content sitting on their tons of land they own and millions of Dollars, no reason to rock the boat.
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Feb 25, 2020 14:10
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Great, two cases in Austria, exactly where my parents went on vacation. Can't wait to get this poo poo. Yay.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:51
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