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number go up
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Feb 25, 2020 13:37
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| # ? May 18, 2024 06:33 |
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Long term is long. Look at the graph here and calm down. https://www.credentwealth.com/blog/10-year-annualized-rolling-returns
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Feb 25, 2020 13:42
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:why are you nervous? it's a paper number This is the best viewpoint, and thank you for the reminder. I think a lot of people are so used to the market going up mostly consistently for years upon years (recently), it’s always slightly jarring to see a drop. I keep reminding myself that as long as my funds are diversified , over 20-30 years either A. It’ll go up between the overall stock market and dividends or B. We will be in a hell hole mad max world and it won’t matter. For the record, if the world goes to a mad max like hell, there is no way I’m surviving long term. So I’ll bank hard for option A to be what happens.
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Feb 25, 2020 14:36
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Honestly, I'm only really entering my earning years. I'm voting for the market to go down so I get to buy in cheap.
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Feb 25, 2020 14:46
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Residency Evil posted:Honestly, I'm only really entering my earning years. I'm voting for the market to go down so I get to buy in cheap. yea same
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Feb 25, 2020 14:47
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Residency Evil posted:Honestly, I'm only really entering my earning years. I'm voting for the market to go down so I get to buy in cheap. Same, as long as a recession doesn’t make me lose my job or force a concessionary contract, it would probably help me catch up to my goals.
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Feb 25, 2020 14:49
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I somehow managed to buy in right before it dipped lol
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Feb 25, 2020 14:52
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Pollyanna posted:I somehow managed to buy in right before it dipped lol It seems like this, but you're also forgetting all the times you didn't buy in before the dip. I put in money at the end of every month. Even with the ridiculous drop yesterday, it wasn't enough of a drop to give me the opportunity to sell anything for TLH purposes, even the lots I bought at the end of January. Which is really ridiculous if you think about it.
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Feb 25, 2020 14:57
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:Long term is long. Look at the graph here and calm down. What does this chart look like for Japan? ZIRP, endless QE, there are actually big financial differences this time around than the US has ever had before.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:08
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Does it count as timing the market if I buy a bit more now? I'm still holding, trying to keep my eyes on the long-term. I can't wait for a point when I have enough to have for a decent retirement and I can just move everything into something conservative, or just a drat savings account. This system sucks; any risk tolerance I've built up is fully artificial since the alternative - just stick the money in a savings account - will probably be a net loss over time, given inflation.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:10
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poo poo, I totally forgot about inflation. Guess I feel better about investing now.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:13
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Pollyanna posted:I somehow managed to buy in right before it dipped lol https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ You will be fine holding investments long-term even if you manage to only ever buy at the peaks. Of course you'll do better if you only buy at the dips. But you can't do that; not reliably at least. The best paid people on wall street can't even manage that, so you have no earthly business even trying. For long-term investing, just buy when you have money to buy. Don't sell, and don't try to out-smart the market. If you have money, invest it. Sometimes you'll get lucky and buy on a dip, sometimes you'll buy at a peak right before a crash. But as long as you hold on to it for 20+ years, you'll be fine.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:18
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It goes down, it goes up. It'll be up from where it is now in 10 years that's the only thing I can say. If I'm wrong the economy is likely so hosed that it if you had held the money it'd likely also be worthless.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:19
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Naw I getcha, i just find it funny cuz of my poor luck.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:23
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MJP posted:Does it count as timing the market if I buy a bit more now? I'm still holding, trying to keep my eyes on the long-term. If you're holding money back that you'd like to invest but are waiting for a dip, that's market timing. If you want to invest a sum of money, go ahead and do it. I don't keep any investable money on hand - I have my emergency fund in a high yield savings account, which I won't touch outside of an emergency, and a relatively small sum of available money in a checking account. Friday is payday, so I'll estimate how much I'll spend in the two weeks until the next payday (with some safety cushion of course) and invest the rest. I never keep cash on hand waiting to invest it, I either invest it immediately or have it earmarked for a purpose other than investing.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:32
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When the market has a day like yesterday I go back and read the below article: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/six-tips TLDR: $10,0000 invested into an S&P 500 index fund from 1980 to 2018 would have grown to $708,143. If you were out of the market on the best FIVE best days (you have NO idea when these days will be) in 30 years then it would have grown to only $458,476. If you missed the best FIFTY days, then it would have grown to only $62,342.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:43
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pixaal posted:It goes down, it goes up. It'll be up from where it is now in 10 years that's the only thing I can say. If I'm wrong the economy is likely so hosed that it if you had held the money it'd likely also be worthless. there is probably a scenario with some time horizon and some start point where it was better to pull the money, and it's also possible that it could happen like that in the future starting RIGHT NOW but the probability is so low it's like trying to hit the bulls eye on a dart board from 25m. sure, it's possible. it's also almost certainly not going to happen.
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Feb 25, 2020 15:54
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The fidelity index fund my parents use/recommend has Tesla as its current top holding, which makes it feel like gambling short term. Long term/more rationally, the fund has >3k other holdings and a 10 year return of 13%. Emotion and money aren’t fun together.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:06
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Kylaer posted:If you're holding money back that you'd like to invest but are waiting for a dip, that's market timing. If you want to invest a sum of money, go ahead and do it. I don't keep any investable money on hand - I have my emergency fund in a high yield savings account, which I won't touch outside of an emergency, and a relatively small sum of available money in a checking account. Friday is payday, so I'll estimate how much I'll spend in the two weeks until the next payday (with some safety cushion of course) and invest the rest. I never keep cash on hand waiting to invest it, I either invest it immediately or have it earmarked for a purpose other than investing. I am pretty much the same. I find that over the year I will not spend as much as I budgeted and then I will have about $1-2k extra to invest. I don't time that but when you see a big dip I look and see if I have some extra to toss in there for sure.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:07
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paternity suitor posted:It feels good, touch it As someone who's caught a literal falling blade pointy side into palm, can confirm
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Feb 25, 2020 16:11
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Kylaer posted:If you're holding money back that you'd like to invest but are waiting for a dip, that's market timing. If you want to invest a sum of money, go ahead and do it. I don't keep any investable money on hand - I have my emergency fund in a high yield savings account, which I won't touch outside of an emergency, and a relatively small sum of available money in a checking account. Friday is payday, so I'll estimate how much I'll spend in the two weeks until the next payday (with some safety cushion of course) and invest the rest. I never keep cash on hand waiting to invest it, I either invest it immediately or have it earmarked for a purpose other than investing. You raise a good point. Every paycheck I get automatically allots $300 to put into the brokerage account - this is after 11% towards my 401k, HSA, etc. We're income-limited from traditional IRA benefits, don't make enough to backdoor Roth. When I have that money in the brokerage account, I invest it evenly across the funds in my portfolio. Should I be saving that $300 each time and wait for dips to buy? That smacks as timing the market, but it's doing so with money I'd set aside for investment anyway. Right now I'm not holding anything back for targets of opportunity, but I have a little more than 6 months of expenses in the savings account that I could kick in.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:26
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Pollyanna posted:Naw I getcha, i just find it funny cuz of my poor luck. It's not poor luck if you don't cash out the money, it means nothing until you sell it. If you did panic and sell then yes you would guarantee your loss. The correct and simple action is to do nothing, it's the easiest thing in the world and yet the hardest mentally. But even if the stock price was exactly the same now as in 10 years, you would have more of it from your dividends.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:28
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It's probably best from a human-perspective to stick with automatic and invisible.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:28
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MJP posted:You raise a good point. Every paycheck I get automatically allots $300 to put into the brokerage account - this is after 11% towards my 401k, HSA, etc. We're income-limited from traditional IRA benefits, don't make enough to backdoor Roth. When I have that money in the brokerage account, I invest it evenly across the funds in my portfolio.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:33
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Hoodwinker posted:Real quick, I get the part about being income-limited on the Trad IRA, but you are contributing to a Roth IRA since you don't make too much, right? We've got a trad IRA that is our previous contributions before income limitation. We're moving that into the Roth at $5,000/year in order to keep the tax burden low. Wouldn't it be better for me to do 401k contributions rather than Roth, though?
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Feb 25, 2020 16:35
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MJP posted:We've got a trad IRA that is our previous contributions before income limitation. We're moving that into the Roth at $5,000/year in order to keep the tax burden low.
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Feb 25, 2020 16:45
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MJP posted:Should I be saving that $300 each time and wait for dips to buy? That smacks as timing the market, but it's doing so with money I'd set aside for investment anyway. No, you shouldn't, that's exactly what I'm saying you should not be doing. That's market timing and you are unlikely to do it successfully. When you have the money available to invest, invest it, and you will most likely outperform any attempts you might make at timing the market.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:04
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When I had my first job that had a 401k match that I started to contribute to, the market started taking a poo poo as I was investing in a life lifecycle 2050 fund (can't remember what caused that particular panic at the time) but I've held steady and that got around a 15-20% gain over the life, and changed investments into the 2055 and 2060 when they became available. I'm mixing up my investments a bit but basically I plan to be pretty aggressive until I hit my 40s. My understanding that unless we have a great depression style crash, the market will bounce back and funds will give you a net positive.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:05
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Kylaer posted:No, you shouldn't, that's exactly what I'm saying you should not be doing. That's market timing and you are unlikely to do it successfully. When you have the money available to invest, invest it, and you will most likely outperform any attempts you might make at timing the market. Understood, makes sense. Course will be stayed. Hoodwinker posted:I don't know what your financial picture is but if you're limited on the amount of actual money you have to put away, that makes sense. Hell, I should have thought about that - getting limitless money and putting THAT away :-P
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Feb 25, 2020 17:07
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MJP posted:Understood, makes sense. Course will be stayed.  The reason I phrased it that way is that there are a lot of goons who end up on here who do make obscene amounts of money and don't realize they should be maxing out all of them if they can. Some people do have to prioritize and so the distinction needs to be made between, "Do you have to prioritize here?" or "Just loving max it all out, dummy."
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Feb 25, 2020 17:09
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Well I took my own advice and just "bought the dip". Basically I decided that I could part with some cash/invest a few days earlier than I usually do (I get paid on the last day of the month). Could it go down more? Sure could but at almost 5% lower it seems like a win for me. My match goes in today as well ($5600) so chalk that up as a win. All the money will be sitting there for 20-30 more years so ultimately it probably doesn't matter but it feels good. If the market goes down a bunch more I will still feel good. That is probably the key. I get my early bonus on Mach 11th so I have a lot more buying to come!
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Feb 25, 2020 17:12
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On the last day of the month I buy the same amount of index funds in my taxable brokerage account (after Roth, 401k, 457, HSA, etc etc). Because of the drops, I'm tempted to put that same amount of money in to the market today rather than waiting until the 29th. That's still timing the market, right? Bad, right? edit: vvvv Still the right thing to do. Residency Evil fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Feb 25, 2020 |
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Feb 25, 2020 17:22
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I maxed my Roth IRA on like, the 2nd or 3rd of Jan. In hindsight, it makes me sigh. I really should have seen the outbreak of a global In a more serious note, investing is similar to gambling in that you could pretend to be a whale and bet big to win/lose big, or you could pretend to be the house and be willing to suffer the ups and downs but know that in the long run, statistics will be on your side and you'll come out ahead. (Be the house.)
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Feb 25, 2020 17:25
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pixaal posted:It goes down, it goes up. It'll be up from where it is now in 10 years that's the only thing I can say. If I'm wrong the economy is likely so hosed that it if you had held the money it'd likely also be worthless. I will never understand why the stock market is not considered one big pyramid scheme. It depends on other people constantly buying in at a higher rate, and then selling years later for more people at a higher rate. There will come a point where it all comes crashing down, because you can't build an economy based on endless growth forever. It just reminds me of stocks tumbling because of things like like "Well you said you were going to make $300 Million this year, and you made $280 Million." Rather than "wow, you guys made $280 million! Good job!" Like I don't understand why everything largely goes up or down the same amount all the time based on speculation. As a kid, I was always told to invest in a company you think will do good. But it all seems kind of irrelevant, because suddenly people think "oh the corona virus is coming! Better sell all my shares in Twitter because people are going to... Tweet less?" Like it all makes no sense to me.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:34
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Is there a good spot to read up on using a 529 on yourself for post-grad studies? Want to avoid any pitfalls, esp since I'm looking at grad school overseas in the next ~2-4 years or if I decided to not pursue grad school then use it for a grad cert or even learning a second language for funsies.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:36
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Astro7x posted:I will never understand why the stock market is not considered one big pyramid scheme. It depends on other people constantly buying in at a higher rate, and then selling years later for more people at a higher rate. I'm sure there's an actual answer to this question but I think of it as, basically, we as a society are going to work every day and doing stuff. The stuff we do generates value (which has many shapes and forms). Much of this value is simply consumed but some of it remains left over and what's left over has to go somewhere - whether it be the stock market, under the bed, etc. When you buy a security, you're buying (a portion of) the underlying asset. So long as that underlying asset continues to generate value, it continues to be actually worth something. The more value it generates, the more it's worth. You're not wrong that there are certainly pyramid schemes (see: bubbles) but in the long run, it all comes back to the consistent value that society generates. (also worth considering are the future costs of the value we generate today, like long-term consequences of carbon emissions which aren't being paid for today but will be paid for in the future, etc.)
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Feb 25, 2020 17:44
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Astro7x posted:I will never understand why the stock market is not considered one big pyramid scheme. It depends on other people constantly buying in at a higher rate, and then selling years later for more people at a higher rate. I agree with you regarding the weirdness of stock tumbling over earnings being positive but less positive than expected, sure, but there's more to stock ownership than buying and hoping to sell at a higher price point. Dividends and corporate stock buy-backs are the missing piece of the puzzle. They are mechanisms for corporations to transfer money out of the company and into the pockets of the shareholders - frequently the owners and management of the corporation will also be sizable shareholders, so this is how they may make a significant portion of their money, beyond their salary. Now, dividends have their own pitfalls and they aren't a free lunch - any money transferred out of the corporation is money that the corporation can't use for other purposes, such as generating further growth. Some people pursue dividends and purchase only stocks that issue dividends (not every stock does), and I do not follow this method of investing, but I viscerally understand the appeal of it.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:46
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Residency Evil posted:On the last day of the month I buy the same amount of index funds in my taxable brokerage account (after Roth, 401k, 457, HSA, etc etc). Because of the drops, I'm tempted to put that same amount of money in to the market today rather than waiting until the 29th. I mean who knows, maybe the market will be done on the 29th compared to today. The effects of the virus may still not be priced into the system yet.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:51
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Nitrousoxide posted:I mean who knows, maybe the market will be done on the 29th compared to today. The effects of the virus may still not be priced into the system yet. Yup, that's what I'm telling myself. Then I'd be posting about putting money in to the market on Tuesday before the even bigger drop brought on by Trump catching coronavirus. 
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Feb 25, 2020 17:53
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| # ? May 18, 2024 06:33 |
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Residency Evil posted:On the last day of the month I buy the same amount of index funds in my taxable brokerage account (after Roth, 401k, 457, HSA, etc etc). Because of the drops, I'm tempted to put that same amount of money in to the market today rather than waiting until the 29th. It is timing but I also said what the hell. Lock in the 5% discount. It will not matter in 20 years.
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Feb 25, 2020 17:57
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